jayyy

If there’s anything we do well (which isn’t very much) it’s overrunning coming from our SW with cold air in place. We don’t typically overperform but this is one of the few types of events where it’s possible with that initial part

HoCo jackpot. Knewwww it .

Show us that snow porn!

You know what they say about when it snows it Tennessee!

Jeb disco: a storm will park off the coast near ocean city and crawl at a staggered 0.0001 mph pace to the NE, dumping 4 feet of snow over a 10 day period.

NWS forecast for Columbia MD. Wintry week ahead! Finally.

I have lived in the Hudson valley in NY, buffalo, central PA and now here since 2007. I’ve been active in all of those subforums over the years. This is hands down the best subforum on AmericanWX. We have the best analysis / discussions without a doubt and while we’re all snow weenies / psychopaths in our own right, there’s no community I’d rather be a part of.

Hahaha not quite!

Or it’s peaking #perspective

Was just going to say the same thing. My doctor thinks herbal remedies are better for my health, and I concur. .

You get snow, and you get snow, and you get snow.. Let’s get a nice advisory event out of this to start off our late Jan - early march heater

Bottomless is the way to go… in all facets of life. As far as your drinks are concerned, it’s clearly the more financially sound decision.

I certainly didn’t, nor did deck pic and several others who kept commenting on the fact that things could easily trend better once we got to Saturday and beyond. When things are looking too progressive / flat, there’s typically room for things to trend in our direction. It’s when we need things to be less amped / further south / colder that things don’t pan out. 9/10 times, models correct NW / more amped as we get inside the day 4 range. There are a ton of people in here who get pretty emotional over whether or not it snows. That’s fine because 99% of them are weenies, not professional meteorologists. What you’re saying doesn’t help DT’s case at all. It makes it worse. See how LWX / legit Mets like MillvilleWx handle forecasts? They update us with the facts and likelihoods. They don’t fully commit until they have all relevant / current information. They don’t have wild emotional swings on twitter and their vlogs. I’m speaking to the fact that DT doesn’t stick to his convictions based on meteorology / the setup we have going into a storm. He swings with the models. Anyone can read the GFS / Euro snow output from 7 days out and cheer or pout about it as they change. It’s one thing if we do it. It’s another if Mets with a following do it. People rely on these mets for forecasts to make life decisions. Just think there’s a professional way to go about it, and DT doesn’t exemplify that.

Agree with this forecast wholeheartedly. Think they did a good job being patient and letting things unfold before jumping the gun in either direction. Models have been consistent showing that “tongue” of enhanced qpf from DC NE up to BAL, so this looks spot on. I really don’t think temps will be an issue at all for 99% of us. Virga is annoying but it will cool the column. Dynamic cooling should fairly easily win out. Doubt the metros see much mixing, if any, especially in Baltimore.

Didn’t DT give up on this 24 hours ago? I told y’all. It’s the weather version of the Jim Cramer effect… predict the opposite of what DT&JB predict and you’re typically golden. “My jaw is on the floor. How dare models show snow in DC and BAL”. Gimme a break DT

Seems like a realistic depiction accounting for better lift / temps up this way but having the qpf jack closer to 95. Agreed though. More likely you see that 3-4” in that secondary jack than DC metro but who knows. .

What we need to do is create threads and then a second thread when everything goes to shit on models at the day 4-5 range. That’s the key! .

First day of our weather changing for sure. Upper air longwave pattern certainly changed before today. .

Just stopped at my brothers house in Ellicott city near turf valley and their mulch and colder surfaces have a trace / dusting, but nothing on streets / sidewalks. .

Right along 95 or JUST NW in places like Howard county, NW Baltimore county, E MoCo appears to be where many models are keying in for those possible 3-4” amounts. Love to see it .

It hasn’t been any better here the past couple of years. At 3” on the season. Not exactly a huge difference between my house and my old house in Ellicott city since 2022 honestly. Nice to see it snowing everywhere for a change. Also appears Howard county will do better than my area on Tuesday as well if most models are correct about the just west of 95 mini jack. I’ll be working that day so I’m excited to be there for it.

I think it’s very short lived. Reloading should happen rapidly like Bob alluded to. .

NAM GFS Euro and Ukie all aligned on this it seems. 2-3” with 4” lollipops on some models JUST outside the metros. .

Ellicott city - highway 29. I’d call this moderate snow for sure. Temp dropping like a rock .

Appears to be colder / heavier at home. Got some accumulation baby!! .