jayyy

GFS essentially held serve. Nice to see it not go south. On to the next.

People have apparently forgotten both “thread storms” just last January where things looked bleak and south 48+ hours out, only to come back north… along with countless other storms that have not held serve 2+ days out over the years. It happens frequently. Does it mean it’ll happen this time? Of course not. Maybe Richmond does jackpot. But we’re talking about models waffling 50-75 miles per run based on small variations in confluence, vort strength, etc. This is largely noise. If someone asked me to bet on whether a storm (especially one with a re-developing coastal) is more likely to shift north / stronger or south / weaker inside 60 hours, I’d bet on a north bump 9 out of 10 times… unless there was some crazy strong high to our north (which there isn’t) Temps will be in upper 20s to low 30s so we’re not talking about the storm being overwhelmed by confluence to our north. History teaches us a lot. This may be one of those times where models continue south, but a compromise between the nam / gfs and euro seems most likely to me. Let’s see what 00z gfs and euro have to say, but this synoptic setup with a ULL pass to our south usually means solid snow for most of the forum

My thoughts exactly. I think Baltimore and points west are still very much in the game for big totals. Even the northern tier is still in it for warning level snow given temps and ratios. Tomorrow will be very telling. If euro continues to tick north and gfs / NAM hold serve, it’s game on

I’m off work on Monday. May stay down at my brothers in HoCo rather than up here in Carroll County for an easier commute to work on Tuesday (and in hopes of seeing a bit more snow honestly)

Baltimore jack on NAM wowza

I know many tend to hug the snowiest for their backyard, but a blend of all of the major OPs makes total sense for actual forecasting purposes. If GFS / NAM also go south tonight and euro holds serve, that’s when I’ll be a smidge worried for Baltimore & north. And by “worried” I mean 4-6” instead of 8-12”

Come to papa haha. Euro doing its typical waffle 48 hours out before trending back to its 3-4 day depiction? We shall see

I know it’s the SREF blend but this is what I have had in mind for days now. Makes the most sense to me based on setup and climo. We shall see though.

Agreed. Been beating this notion like a dead horse as of late but a split of the euro / gfs seems most likely, which is 6+ for most of us.

Still putting my jackpot in the general latitude of Leesburg to germantown to Columbia to Easton for now. Will see how things look by tomorrow 0z but I don’t buy the dc south jack quite yet. Euro has been known to lose things 48 out to get them back closer to game time. Can’t shake the general climo aspect to this storm, especially early on in a cold pattern.

Sure. But it’s an arctic front vs a complex storm setup. Not really the same thing.

I’d say predicting the precise location of isolated snow squalls is different than a full storm but…

That picture I took was on rt 40, Chatham station outside trilogy dispensary. Stopped there on my way home from work.

Just left work. It’s ripping out here in HOCO .

Better ratios up N and also some coastal love for NEMD and DE. Solid snow all around for the entire metro & surrounding areas, but as I’ve said for days, I’d be pretty surprised if DC south sees more snow than Columbia Baltimore Bel Air etc. This storm has central MD written all over it. Models have been waffling 50-75 miles here and there, which is to be expected and is still remarkable accuracy 3-5 days out, but our climo rarely fails to tell the story at the end of the day, especially at the front end of a cold pattern. 90+% of us will see warning level snowfall. About the best we could ask for to kick off a potentially epic January.

Great GFS run there. Cold smoke up this way

Moved towards euro / gfs / cmc. All I wanted to see out of the Ukie. The setup upstairs looks good. Not worried about short pump seeing more than us ultimately. Big run coming up shortly!

4-8” from dc to the md/pa line with jackpot amounts up to 12” if you’re putting out an early forecast. But yeah, pinpointing the jackpot zone will be tough.

Day 3 of saying this, buuuut a split between the euro / gfs is a good bet at this juncture.

Splitting the difference between GFS / Euro is probably the best bet at this point. Would be 6+ for mostly everyone. We’re pretty close to game time but still a good 60+ out. Expecting this to nudge north a tiny bit by Sunday. Said this yesterday, but I expect the latitude around Winchester due east toward Baltimore to be in a prime position for this one (north enough for all snow, south enough for qpf)

That was me for sure. It’s my go to but I’m certainly not a red tagger or as knowledgeable as CAPE PSU and others

Those with a bit more knowledge than me, were a bit too close now to be using ensembles right? Glad the EPS mean is solid don’t get me wrong, but that’s to be expected with the OP euro looking so good for days now. Feels like 72ish hours out we should be relying mainly on OPs? GFS / EURO over GEFS / EPS?

Based on historical precedent of storms tending to be a bit north of where models depict them, I think that the latitude between DC and Baltimore may be best positioned for this one as they are far enough north for better thermals and south enough for heavier precip. The trend is overall nudging north over the past 24 hours. Not a huge jump but enough that I’d be much rather be in C MD than C VA currently.

Euro has been rock steady (with some expected minor waddling on the exact location of the precip max) Let’s reel her in! 4 days and change to go