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jayyy

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Everything posted by jayyy

  1. jayyy
    Euro and HRRR kuch maps with identical outputs for Baltimore. Go figure
  2. jayyy
    Still way out there for the HRRR but I’ll accept it
  3. jayyy
    Best run we’ve had from a varsity model in 48 hours and everyone’s asleep lol. Here’s to hoping the euro is correct
  4. jayyy
    For the love of god, be right.
  5. jayyy
    A big ole shaft headed straight for Boston
  6. jayyy
    What do you make of this euro run [mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention] Wetter / thumpier pre flip?
  7. jayyy
    … euro drops a foot in Baltimore city and 15 here!? Interesting!
  8. jayyy
    12z Mesos tomorrow will be super interesting. Watch the RAP show 13” again
  9. jayyy
    Banding perhaps? but yeah, likely not the case.
  10. jayyy
    Not up on pivotal just 10:1
  11. jayyy
    It’s gotta be missing some of that mid layer warmth. Or is it a big thump pre flip?
  12. jayyy
    Hoping the models are underplaying the cold push, but likely not
  13. jayyy
    12 degrees Wind chill is -5
  14. jayyy
    Bottoms falling out. Down to 20 already
  15. jayyy
    Which one lol
  16. jayyy
    Feeling pretty good about 10-12”+ in my backyard. Call me crazy but I still think the Columbia and EC area has a SHOT at a foot if the RAP is onto something with the mega thump to kick things off.
  17. jayyy
    HERPDYDERP looking good. Again, these are at mega range for HRDPS/RAP/HRRR etc so take with a grain of salt
  18. jayyy
    Just got done with work. Glad to see things primarily held from earlier
  19. jayyy
    It’s output makes sense given what it does over the next 24 hours out west… but boy, is it on an island… let’s see a RAP run like this tomorrow and we’ll maybe be onto something. It has a wicked front end thump
  20. jayyy
    Finally, a suite where all guidance made some adjustments in our direction. Especially important with this storm, as 1-2 degrees at 700 is the difference between heavy sleet and heavy snow after 12z Sunday. I’m primarily looking at Baltimore and its nearby suburbs (Catonsville Columbia etc) as I feel like this area has the widest range of outcomes available to it.
  21. jayyy
    Also, the GFS is wildly consistent. Expect the GEFS to be lit up (albeit way less important)
  22. jayyy
    WSW for 12-18! Bullish
  23. jayyy
    It’s been sooooo stubborn the past 2-3 days.
  24. jayyy
    Since 18z most models have surprisingly budged toward the GFS at h5, not the other way around. 00z is gonna be interesting
  25. jayyy
    Both scenarios make sense depending on how things unfold out West. GFS outcome really isn’t outlandish, but it’s on an island, which makes it harder to believe. Only thing I’d say is that other 18z models moved towards the GFS at H5, not the other way around. Anyone’s guess at this point. 00z should narrow the goal posts
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