jayyy

Well out of both of their ranges though. Grain of salt

Where do I sign up for my 2 feet lol

Goal posts have moved a bit for sure. 2-4” N&W, trace to 2” closer to the fall line seems like a reasonable outcome to HOPE FOR at this point. We’ve seen a few last second moves our way the past few years but it is also so early in the season, and not mid January. Still time for things to shift but we should remember the date and our climo and temper expectations accordingly.

GFS seems to be making subtle movements toward the Euro at H5 since last night. If we keep expectations in check… a solid early December 2-5” type event (1-3” closer to the fall line and 3-5” up this way) that doesn’t melt immediately would do wonders for this forum. Especially with a threat or two possible behind it. I’d obviously love a warning level event with temps in the upper 20s up this way, but I’m not going to bite on the possibility of such a solution until 72 hours out.

Sweet run for sure. Only 8 days to go… doubt much changes between now and then (KIDDING) Nice to see a trackable threat show up early. GFS has been latched onto this general window for a few days now. Let’s keep our expectations in check this far out.

Models have been all over the place, especially with how they handle the PAC…. with wild swings from suite to suite. This is to be expected weeks out. JFC… everyone saying we’re doomed for December or worse - the entire winter - needs a break from the forum. Models have been overdoing the “upcoming warm up” for several months now and pretty much no models had us BN for November in mid October. There is a massive middle area between an epic winter and a total flop. Just keep your expectations in check. Can we perhaps keep the “winters over” posts in the banter or panic room threads?

ALEET!!

About as good as we can hope for early on in the season. If we can manage to squeeze out a 2-4/3-6 type event before dec 20th I’d be thrilled.

2-3 weeks of cold in December seems pretty locked in at this point. The million dollar question: is it cold / dry or do we some chances?

Tony Pann posted something… interesting “No Hurricanes have made landfall in the US so far this season. And only one Tropical Storm (Chantal). Over the last 20 years, there have been 5 years with no Hurricanes making landfall: 2006, 2009, 2010, 2013, 2015. The average winter snowfall for Baltimore in the following winter: 35" Obviously this could be correlation and not causation but it’s an interesting factoid.

Snow falling at work in Columbia, albeit super light

You peep the long range thread? Obviously taken with a minuscule grain of salt but that was one of the most weenie gfs runs we’ve had in a long time

Incase anybody needs to hear this… DO NOT set this as your bar lol

Oy lol

Obviously the chance of a complete short term model bust is like 0.1%, but curious if anybody who’s better at reading maps sees anything of note when comparing what models show to current 500mb/h5 obs. Particularly in regards to the ULL

To be fair, it almost always spits out heavy accumulations. We just happened to get them that time [emoji23]

19 degreed, heavy sun, roads brined.. go time [emoji23]

People not posting clown maps 150+ hours out would go a long way.

If you listen closely enough you can hear all of the nyc weenies cliff diving

Jesus Christ. It’s going to be in Florida by Thursday

It’s going to be souther. Reverse voodoo. NAM goes south and the others come north

That’s true. We used to see positive busts back then. Happened ALL the time when I lived in New York. Problem is models have gotten way better over the past 14 years, so the likelihood is a lot lower. That being said… it’s not impossible.

Less confluence though. Looked pretty good at the surface when it stopped running

Alright guys… long range NAM time [emoji849]

Yessir. Tough suite tonight overall but glad to see the euro improve under the hood vs 18z. It’s in its wheelhouse right now and as PSU pointed out, it schooled most other guidance wrt today’s storm at this range. Doesn’t mean this can’t still fail, but at least the bleeding stopped. By tomorrow night the storm will be over the CONUS, so hopefully things become clearer (and snowier) by tomorrow’s 00z runs