jayyy

CMC / GFS seeing something the euro isn’t? Ooooor How far out is this thing?

It is [emoji1787]

Idk if slow is the overall theme this winter. More like… late. The progressive nature of the NS in a niña usually makes it so that storms capture / bomb out too far east (or “late”). The NS has had waves flying through it all season

It’s possible in a day or two we won’t have anything to track at all. I get it, but a week out seems excessive. Oh well. Lets see if Ji has any magic

Because it’s like a week out? Get rid of this shit lol

Isn’t this thing like 48 hours out? Fucking GFS

What could go wrong in 7 days? Ps - I actually like this setup far better for us. Especially for us folks closer to the M/D. Simpler for sure. If this was late January, I’d be honking loudly. I’ll casually watch this until day 3ish. If it’s still there across guidance, I’ll lock in. I can’t do another 7 days of tracking though. I’m getting old [emoji23]

Going to take the under on the likelihood we see a 6-8” thump before we jump to 50 degrees in march.

This week? Or this winter?

For sure. IMBY sport, of course. I’m not in the metros.

Amounts vary a bit each run, but it has had the same general 2-4” idea for the area since 6z with a very similar snow shield. Would be nice to see something other than the GFS show this though lol

If we can’t get cold enough anymore in any niño regime, our snowfall would cliff-dive over the coming decades. But I also think it’s more complex than that. We just went through a LONG stretch having a +NAO dominated pattern coupled with a VERY hostile -PDO. We haven’t really had a true test of the “old days” since our last blockbuster season (2015). We have either had no blocking, a terrible PAC (thanks -PDO), etc. The beaches and everywhere north and south of us keep getting smacked, which is how we know it can still snow and snow a lot here. We’ve been insanely unlucky. I know, we’ve snowed in the past during -PDO regimes and +NAO regimes, but we’ve also seen our fair share of shoutouts too. Last year we JUST missed a huge storm. Two more this year. It’s almost like the snow gods are punishing us after the insane luck we had the decade prior to 16-26. Idk. I’m no meteorologist or climatologist, but I’d bet the house that we have another blockbuster year sooner than later.

00z was trash I assume lol

Thats what I meant! Hopefully it’s *not* east based. Thanks for the correction sir

That’s because we oversimplify everything to Niña versus niño. Strength and location matter. As do other factors like the PDO. Idk why some folks think every niño is an auto W and every Niña is a ratter. We’ve had great and horrific winters in both ENSO states. Early indications are that next year will likely be a niño. Hopefully it’s not east based. Otherwise it could be another downer season. Niño is def preferred over Niña historically, but it’s no guarantee

Yeah. I usually goff at this notion… but models probably do need to clear this current massive storm to get a grip. They’re all over the fuckin’ place

That’s how you know it’s highly unlikely lol.

It wasnt tucked at all lol

Just has to hold for 250 more hours til start time

Almost as fun as every time you make a post.

Maybe models need the cat 2 hurricane to clear the coast before getting a grip lol

Surrounding spotter reports and my eyeballs say at least 2 feet. Drifting makes it impossible to tell, as wind gusts hit over 60mph last night. Still snowing nicely too. 30+ reports in Rhode Island and eastern Long Island. Someone in RI will hit 40”. Reports of 5-6” per hour under that band One day it will be our areas turn again. Hopefully. Incredible storm. It’s just not as sweet when it’s not IMBY and I can’t share it with my fellow degenerates

That’s what she said

Ground zero from ocean county NJ to eastern Long Island. I’m not going anywhere til Wed at least lol. Islip LI is likely going to surpass 30” shortly. Wild

4z HRRR. More to come. I was trying nap and was woken up by thundersnow. 0% shot I’m sleeping now if this is even 60-70% correct up this way