jayyy
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Everything posted by jayyy
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Isn’t that hour 96, not now?
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January 6th and yesterday’s wave both went north in the final 24-36 hours. Not sure this year’s been *that* different. No block in place yet. Need a more SW to NE track than W to E but a slight bump is certainly possible as we get closer. Wouldn’t expect some massive jump, but I expect 25+ miles
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With no block in place, central MD is still very much in the game for 6”. I suspect a slight bump north in the final 24-36 hours. DC folks appear to be in a great spot for this one.
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Sold. Too bad it’s the NAM. Overall lines up with the euro / gfs but definitely wetter
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5-7” for many if you take the gfs euro cmc combo. Not a bad place to be 3 days out
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I was trying to decipher output. Was throwing me off [emoji23]
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Kind of confusing up north since I assume that includes snowfall from tonight into tomorrow for New York and points N. Nice run for our parts. Not so much a north move, rather a healthier precip shield and better angle of attack to the naked eye. I’ll let someone with more knowledge break it down. euro / gfs showing a 4-8” possibility for many NAM / icon / gem showing more of a 2-5” storm
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Yeah, the jack will be south of the CWA as clskinsfan said. Models are clear as day on that. The question is, does DC and possibly Baltimore get in on those totals around 6” as well if there’s enough of a north push over the coming 2-3 days
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Cousins wedding = fucked Me = happy [emoji23]
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Entering the euros sweet spot. I’ll get excited if it holds (generally) over the next 36 hours.
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384 hour clown map maaaay belong in the long range thread haha
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CMC/Euro say 3-6” type storm GFS/Ukie say 8-12” type storm (both waves) Set my expectations at a 6” max accordingly
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Ukie with the metros jackpot. Should pan out
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Up in NY for my cousins wedding this weekend 34F and a watch up for 4-7”. Precisely why winter weddings are madness lol
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Just messin’ with ya WF!
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Isn’t 43 hours less than 2 days? lol I’m lost
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The changes from run 1 to run 2 on that trend is wild. Seems like the gfs has arrived at a solution between those 2 extremes. Still 5 days out though
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DC area lives in that realm of uncertainty for 90% of storms.
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AKA moving toward the more realistic outcome. We all knew the gfs wouldn’t win a game of chicken with the euro. Hope you’d still be happy with 11” of snow lol
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Love to see us on the northern edge of the pinks with heavy snow down to RIC. Too bad it’s the GFS. Would love to see the Euro get on board with the heavier totals too but I imagine it’ll come in with another 6” event (not that that’s bad)
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10” would be meh for you between now and the 15th with the best chance for a big dog being the following week and beyond? 10” would be a fantastic appetizer for most leading into a more favorable pattern for a MECS+ afterward. The bar is crazy in here lol
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This thread is a true emotional rollercoaster lol. If we manage a 3-6+ type storm in the LEAD UP to our better pattern from the 20th onward, that’s a huge win. People see one fantasy run with 35” on clown maps 200-300 hours out and for some reason set that as their bar. I’m just as excited for deep winter to return as the next weenie, but let’s be realistic. If we can manage two moderate events before things get truly favorable for a big dog, we should all be elated.
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Given the lack of blocking at this point, I’d rather it be south of us 8 days out.
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Feb 15 to march 15 we have a legit chance to see multiple biggies. If we strike out in that period, we can revisit the shoulda woulda coulda convo.
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No it’s not. Cold ensos tend to be dry around these parts. To PSUs point, if we get a cold pattern in a Modoki niño with an active southern jet and barely hit climo, that’s a fail. If we can manage climo or above with a primarily northern stream driven pattern all winter, that’s certainly a win. Especially in our new base state. We lucked out big time twice in a niña pattern over the past nearly 3 decades. So the notion that we *should* see 14-15 level snowfall defies the overwhelming norm.
