jayyy

Just going to stay in Ellicott city at my brothers since I work until late Saturday and early on sunday. Less travel, more snow. Win win

Let’s reel her in

Think they updated the name to the RavensRule block

Sticking with the NBM on this one. Expectations should be 1-3 for many east of 15 with perhaps a 4” lolli where things line up just right - looking to likely be NE of Baltimore, my guess is somewhere near elk neck state park along the bay

Similar to the Euro, just wetter.

Doesn’t get much better than the 0z euro / cmc combo for the I-95 metro corridor

That’s what RavensRule said

1-3” possibility Sunday followed by a drop into the teens that night sounds great.

12z gfs… 65-70 degrees Christmas Eve 18z gfs… 6-12+ storm for the MA and NE on Christmas Eve Safe to say models have minimal clue how our pattern will unfold in 2 weeks

Looks workable. Would rather there be cold air looming around nearby with room for the southern stream to juice up than be in a suppressive / fast NS dominated pattern all winter. When cold patterns / blocking relax is when we tend to get our biggies

We live in the mid Atlantic. We all know we won’t see wall to wall cold from November onward. But there has also been a very clear pattern over the past few months of models vastly overdoing long range warmups. Modeled warm ups end up being either muted or are not occurring. We will 100% see periods of warmer weather in a niña, but I’m gonna take the under on it being 70+ on Christmas. This winter is different than the previous few in that there’s a ton of cold air nearby in Canada with a healthy snowpack to our north. Even the more relaxed zonal flow some models are hinting at in a few weeks shouldn’t be torchy. May end up just having normal temps. 70+? Call me skeptical. There will likely be a reload of the pattern around Christmas. It will probably hit 50+ some days. But idk about 70+ or this winter being over after December like some are suggesting

A lot of moving parts to try to resolve in a given window. Makes sense I suppose

For sure. Models seem pretty lost on how to handle everything in such a fast flow, especially given how weak all of these waves are. Guess we’ll have to keep expectations at nothing and be surprised if we get more

A lot of differences amongst models only 72 hours out from the small Friday wave. These busy NS dominant patterns have models confused AF Gfs now likes Sunday for the immediate Baltimore area after leaving NoVa high and dry. I’m sure it’ll play out just like that… [emoji849]

Chances on chances on chances over the next 2 weeks One’s gotta deliver!

18z GFS total snowfall between now and Christmas Eve. Obviously not to be taken seriously but man, that’d be something. Especially inland Details to be ironed out on how the pattern evolves from here, but we are definitely in the game for something solid by end of year

It feels and looks like snows coming… but it ain’t Happy for you southern forum folks! .

Kinda surprised at this 7pm snow lol. Decent sized flakes in Columbia as I left work. Car re-topped

Someone posted a 5” OBS above

1” in Columbia at work

Do share

Only have one run of the retiring NAM on our side.. what could go wrong lol

Just in time for the 12/10-12/11 snowstorm threat. Lets reel it in

Man, if only we had some blocking in place for the 6-10th timeframe… .

Honestly, I’d be content with 2” of snow up this way at this rate. Trends aren’t encouraging