jayyy

Correct

Good thing no one’s saying that

Over/under on what time the first pressure change map depicting the storm “forming further S than expected” gets posted tomorrow…. Any takers? [emoji1787] #tuckbabytuck

If the norlun is over Baltimore, we’ve got a much larger problem. Would likely mean the storm is way east offshore

So, so excited for this one. I think we’ll do quite well at home too, but I’ve seen this type of storm unfold far too many times back in my NY days to not chase up this way. Looking like ground zero for QPF

Down to 34 at home in union bridge 39 here in asbury park 5 degrees colder down at home than here currently

Roughly 10 hours from storm development off the coast? Yeah. If you’re going to lean on models, hi res is the way to go THIS close. Banding, temp profiles, etc are crucial.

Temps performing nicely

You are the literal definition of a weenie hallucination, Ji. Let the kid be

It probably won’t and we won’t pay any mind lol

Indeed. However the FV3 12 hours out from storm development ain’t it. OBS and short range HI RES is def where our focus should be

That’s why I ultimately chased and am crashing at my cousins up in asbury park. The consensus for 2+” of QPF and 35+ mph winds up that way on almost every model is awesome

The NAM just triple phased this bad boy and stalled it [emoji1787]

Coastal could be getting going a smidge earlier this run? Have to double check 18z

No. Because the 12k is trash.

That’s not a massive jump east lol. It’s just weaker

NAMing incoming soon if the latest SREFs are the indicator. 0z HRRR not as good as 18z

In the upper 30s as I head out of the house. Not too shabby!

Not even really the old days. This still occurs pretty frequently. Being modeled JUST too far NW of the goods is not a bad place to be in a marginal setup with a bombing LP

Precip shield depiction (expanded NW) makes sense given the strength/location of the storm on this run (albeit probably a bit too smoothed over with totals given the banding setup and norlun wildcard) I get that NYC is a better place to be than Baltimore for this one - I cashed in on these setups 100x when I lived in NY - but I REALLY think there’s still a lot of boom potential for the I-95 corridor, especially for Baltimore proper.

Very solid choice. Anywhere from Vineland to asbury park to Long Island and coastal New England is PRIME real estate for this. I am originally from the tristate area. Lived there nearly 3 decades. This is a CLASSIC double barrel low that bombs out and demolishes the NYC area. It doesn’t get much more textbook than this for them. My best guess from seeing these setups countless times is the jackpot falls somewhere between Toms River NJ and Brentwood on Long Island (western Suffolk county) Someone in that zone will likely exceed 24”

Woof, someone post the maps I’m on my phone but the SREF is TUCKED with a lot of western members.

Confirmed. Going chasing for this one. Asbury Park, NJ

BITCHIN’ nachos, man.

Flights out for 00z recon! Let’s bring it home