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Everything posted by jayyy

  1. Heat sucks. Humidity sucks. Give me either snow / cold or 50s maybe low 60s, low humidity and sunny. I enjoy a cool spring day. Summer is my body’s kryptonite. 70s is bearable but 80+ and I’m profusely sweating [emoji28]
  2. If I could pick an ideal weather, outside of having cold and snow, I’d pick 50s and sunny all year. I loathe the heat.
  3. I’d take snow in may. No rush here. I despise the heat. I was referring to the purple on the snow map, not the temp map. Just commenting on the fact that the 6” the gfs showed IMBY earlier is likely BS is all.
  4. Cold and dry in mid to late march. Fun.
  5. You forgot to tell us how much your vacation cost per night. We’ve been eagerly awaiting [emoji1787]
  6. Purpled at 228 hours in late march. What could go wrong
  7. I feel like January February and march are all going to end with a very similar average temp. Odd
  8. Beacon is just east of the Hudson River, has little elevation, and deals with shadowing. Zero shot they got 43” [emoji23] Now, it is true though that snow totals varied greatly in relatively small areas in NY and western MA with this last storm. I drove home through that area the day after and it was pretty incredible to see how much snow was OTG in certain areas versus others. Where I stayed saw 22” of snow, all of which fell at 32-33 degrees. Shadowing in areas close to the Berkshires, Catskills, Adirondacks, etc is very real and can lead to the valleys getting much lower amounts than elevated areas. Especially because temps were so marginal… but seeing a 43” report in a place like beacon is laughable. I grew up in that area and know it well and definitely can smell bullshit on that report. But I bet elevated areas nearby did see close to 18”. The reporting was all over the place. Massachusetts saw similar discrepancies. Totals ranged from 3-4” to 40”. Some of that is legit due to elevation and being colder with better lift, but there are definitely some very suspect lowland reports mixed in there.
  9. Except 2-3 days later, the energy off the west coast comes onshore and deepens into yet another trough, with heights pumping out east. Eek.
  10. GEPS looks like it was *trying* to get something going.
  11. 00z icon tried it… but too progressive
  12. An inland low surrounded by 4 highs, what could go wrong [emoji23] .
  13. Yay, another 12 feet of snow for the Cali mountains lol
  14. What? The Ukie and Canadian showed snowstorms as well. Euro GFS showed big hits for the lower Hudson valley for days. Things fell apart for NYC metro big time within the final 48 hours.
  15. 192 hours away lol. 90+% of storms this year and in this pattern too have trended further north. Ask NYC. They were teed up for a sizable snowstorm on most models until 24-36 hours before yesterdays event. Hell, it looked like we could get hit 6 days ago by yesterdays event. There’s a ton of time left. We’re talking about a storm 6-7 days out. The difference between the storm sliding out to sea south of us and running up the coast comes down to wave spacing in this case. Some crazy shift at h5 isn’t needed to make this work. Your pessimism is completely understandable given our luck this year, but I wouldn’t count us out yet. Especially inland areas.
  16. We haven’t been failing because of the pac this month though. It’s been the NS. The pac hasn’t been ideal, but it also hasn’t been hostile the past couple of weeks either. We have seen tons of snowstorms over the years with a negative or neutral PNA. The fails lately have been because of the NS. Still time for this one to improve but if we keep our expectations low we won’t be disappointed
  17. Either the NS or that 1030-1040 high (depending on the model) not being there come game time.
  18. He’s also been saying we can score with proper timing. Especially his area and mine in northern MD. Peep the 0z GEFS btw. Cold and not suppressed. It’s not going to be easy, clearly, but my latitude can snow into April. Not counting it out unless we get below 150 hours and it looks bleak. Cautious interest for now. It is winter 22-23 in the mid Atlantic after all.
  19. Low skirts offshore at 204. Suppressed.
  20. Low still remains in place at 198. 18 hours and counting with that low stuck in SC. Weird evolution there. Snow breaking out.
  21. High slides east and weakens a bit afterward. The low hasn’t moved at all from SC between hours 180-192. Likely ends up being warmer than we’d like but that’s okay. Signal remains.
  22. Surface depiction at 180. 1042 high in a great spot. Snow breaking out in VA along the blue ridge and western NC. OP surface Details aren’t imperative at this range but the solid miller A signal is still there.
  23. Precisely why it will work [emoji23]
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