jayyy
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Everything posted by jayyy
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When’s the cmc run again? Edit — nvm didn’t scroll up
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Not lots of time for the things that happen early on to change though. The storm may be 5 days out, but what happens day 1-3 matters a ton in how the storm plays out Not out of the game whatsoever but food for thought
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I know we obviously want to see as much guidance on board as possible, but the euro / ai / cmc sniffed out yesterday’s storm first as well. We certainly have the best camp in our corner - especially at day 5. Plenty of time to reel this fish (storm) in. If in 48 hours most guidance is still OTS, we will have to re-evaluate. But as bob chill said, an in between solution can still be a 2-4/3-6 of fresh pow type clipper to add to our snowpack that’s going nowhere.
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Ready for the AI shellacking
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holy fuck
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CMC big step toward euro
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So.. we can fail but we can also maybe not. Sounds about right
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Great place to be at D5
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Don’t start it lol
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Ah, the ole’ weathernext/euro rule!
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Went to sleep, and not only was the 0z euro good, 6z was insane too. EPS on board. Oh boy. And here I thought I’d catch up on sleep this week.
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What’s that old weenie saying? Always believe the euro on the night of a snowstorm if it happens to fall 6 days before the next threat? Something like that.
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Sharper ridge out west this run for sure
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Boom. Unlikely outcome but dayum
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Let’s see what euro / euro ai have to say. We are at D6 after all. Not far from euros wheelhouse and the AI does pretty well at this range. LONG way to go, but it’ll be pretty encouraging if the euro holds its 18z idea generally
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PNA isn’t ideal. It’s all too flat. OTS is the most likely outcome unless models start to amp things out west over the coming days. That 18z euro had a shit load of things go right to have a coastal where it did. Threaded about 3 needles. We shall see. Certainly some better trends today but still a long way to go.
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January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!
jayyy replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
Not good at all here in the sticks. My brother down in Ellicott city said his neighborhood hasn’t even been touched since last nights salting -
About to add to it next week
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Solid!! My mom FaceTimed me from the driveway mid afternoon and it was nuking out. Looked awesome. Congrats on the chase. I love living down here but boy do I miss living somewhere where niñas produce.
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Hometown homie! My parents live in Middletown. I grew up up there. Happy for you guys. 13-14” spotter reports @ 3 pm in the area so 18-20” is certainly possible Edit - I see you may be visiting the area. Nice chase!
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Why? Have you checked the temps for this upcoming week? Also, it snowed a foot in New Orleans last year - which averages 0.0” of snow annually. South Carolina snow is rare, but not impossible, especially on the heels of this airmass with a ton of snow / ice cover to the north / west. Not saying it’ll snow there, but I wouldn’t brush off the possibility entirely
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Is it though? Got thermals right but QPF very wrong. GFS totals across dc & Maryland likely verified better than the NAM. Gfs got the thermals wrong but NAM missed in an equally huge way on the front end. Euro got this most right IMO.
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11.25” of snow / sleet total. 0.0 of ZR Precip has shut off 22 degrees. Storm reports up N are also impressive. Spotter in my parents town reported 13” @ 3pm, damn. Have to be at 15-16” now.
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Unconventional double digit storm but I’ll sure as shit take it. Especially since we’ll be able to enjoy it all week. Models have lows falling to near zero 3-4 days this week. Going to be a great week leading up to our storm next weekend (hello 18z euro)
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GFS had me at 11.4 last night 00z. I ended up over 11”. NAM had me at 7.5. NAM had DC at like 3-4” It busted pretty badly on totals. It got thermals correct but completely missed the initial thump.
