jayyy
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Everything posted by jayyy
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Ready for the AI shellacking
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holy fuck
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CMC big step toward euro
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So.. we can fail but we can also maybe not. Sounds about right
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Great place to be at D5
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Don’t start it lol
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Ah, the ole’ weathernext/euro rule!
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Went to sleep, and not only was the 0z euro good, 6z was insane too. EPS on board. Oh boy. And here I thought I’d catch up on sleep this week.
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What’s that old weenie saying? Always believe the euro on the night of a snowstorm if it happens to fall 6 days before the next threat? Something like that.
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Sharper ridge out west this run for sure
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Boom. Unlikely outcome but dayum
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Let’s see what euro / euro ai have to say. We are at D6 after all. Not far from euros wheelhouse and the AI does pretty well at this range. LONG way to go, but it’ll be pretty encouraging if the euro holds its 18z idea generally
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PNA isn’t ideal. It’s all too flat. OTS is the most likely outcome unless models start to amp things out west over the coming days. That 18z euro had a shit load of things go right to have a coastal where it did. Threaded about 3 needles. We shall see. Certainly some better trends today but still a long way to go.
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January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!
jayyy replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
Not good at all here in the sticks. My brother down in Ellicott city said his neighborhood hasn’t even been touched since last nights salting -
About to add to it next week
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Solid!! My mom FaceTimed me from the driveway mid afternoon and it was nuking out. Looked awesome. Congrats on the chase. I love living down here but boy do I miss living somewhere where niñas produce.
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Hometown homie! My parents live in Middletown. I grew up up there. Happy for you guys. 13-14” spotter reports @ 3 pm in the area so 18-20” is certainly possible Edit - I see you may be visiting the area. Nice chase!
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Why? Have you checked the temps for this upcoming week? Also, it snowed a foot in New Orleans last year - which averages 0.0” of snow annually. South Carolina snow is rare, but not impossible, especially on the heels of this airmass with a ton of snow / ice cover to the north / west. Not saying it’ll snow there, but I wouldn’t brush off the possibility entirely
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Is it though? Got thermals right but QPF very wrong. GFS totals across dc & Maryland likely verified better than the NAM. Gfs got the thermals wrong but NAM missed in an equally huge way on the front end. Euro got this most right IMO.
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11.25” of snow / sleet total. 0.0 of ZR Precip has shut off 22 degrees. Storm reports up N are also impressive. Spotter in my parents town reported 13” @ 3pm, damn. Have to be at 15-16” now.
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Unconventional double digit storm but I’ll sure as shit take it. Especially since we’ll be able to enjoy it all week. Models have lows falling to near zero 3-4 days this week. Going to be a great week leading up to our storm next weekend (hello 18z euro)
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GFS had me at 11.4 last night 00z. I ended up over 11”. NAM had me at 7.5. NAM had DC at like 3-4” It busted pretty badly on totals. It got thermals correct but completely missed the initial thump.
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1) thermals sure, but absolutely whiffed on the QPF. The model is literally being retired for a reason. 2) the gfs was significantly closer in ground truth for frozen totals for most of our area, particularly the metros, despite having the thermals incorrect 3) Chicago didn’t get more snow than many of us. In fact, Baltimore saw 5x more snow/sleet as Chicago Other than that, sure. Spot on.
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lol, JFC… no one’s punting anything. You just got probably 9” of snow/sleet that’ll stick around for 1-2 weeks with more chances ahead over the coming weeks. I feel like your soul needs a move to New York or something.
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If it was all snow, yeah, this was a 2 footer
