jayyy
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Everything posted by jayyy
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It’s going to be souther. Reverse voodoo. NAM goes south and the others come north
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That’s true. We used to see positive busts back then. Happened ALL the time when I lived in New York. Problem is models have gotten way better over the past 14 years, so the likelihood is a lot lower. That being said… it’s not impossible.
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Less confluence though. Looked pretty good at the surface when it stopped running
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Alright guys… long range NAM time [emoji849]
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Yessir. Tough suite tonight overall but glad to see the euro improve under the hood vs 18z. It’s in its wheelhouse right now and as PSU pointed out, it schooled most other guidance wrt today’s storm at this range. Doesn’t mean this can’t still fail, but at least the bleeding stopped. By tomorrow night the storm will be over the CONUS, so hopefully things become clearer (and snowier) by tomorrow’s 00z runs
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Get some sleep brother. We’ll analyze some more tomorrow.
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If you listen closely enough you can still hear people sliding off greased poles
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Richmond is only like 2 hrs and 15 mins from Baltimore… yikes
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Hi res models or bust [emoji12] I’ll be interested to see how the euro looks at 12z
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Fellas… I know we dick around in here way more than we probably should, but let’s keep the squabbling to a minimum.
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Disagree there. The mean is clearly NW of 18z. DC and Baltimore see a few more inches of snow and the purples make it further north in Jersey. Pretty clear there. The vort is also more consolidated leading in if I’m seeing that correctly.
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I mean it did cut his snow by like 40%. But if we’re solely basing our comparison on the resulting clown maps… it’s my opinion that it’s not a massive difference when you zoom out and look at the whole region. Maximum area in VA is nearly the same. Total snowfall in Baltimore is the same. The EPS is better and QPF bumped. That being said.. I’d love to see things move further in our direction by tomorrow’s 12z and 0z runs.. Hoping we things trend back toward a more consolidated vort and a full phase
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Precisely my point. I mean don’t get me wrong.. I’m skeptical as hell about the euro’s outcome given seasonal trends, but it’s also THE model people shouldn’t ignore, especially in its bread and butter range. Perhaps I’m wishcasting. If it caves tomorrow, we’re likely cooked.. but for now.. not all hope is lost for at least some snow out of this.
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It’s also very much in its wheelhouse 4 days out. NAM surely isn’t… but it shows a similar progression at h5 between hours 48-72. Don’t get me wrong… I’m discouraged by the fact that the Canadian gfs and ukie were dog shit… but 2/3 of those models kinda suck
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I’ll die laughing if the euro bombs out lol. We are in its prime range so if it also shows what the cmc and ukie do…
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Yikes.
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Richmond gets deez nuts. Nothing more.
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To be fair, 12 hours ago was also 4 days lead time and the euro icon and gfs all showed a foot plus. But yeah, if this thing hasn’t improved come 00z runs tomorrow night, we’re likely headed for another advisory to low end warning event. Unless the cmc is right… cause then we’d be left with nothing but our weenies in our hand.
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Extrapolate, you will. Heavy snow, we receive.
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The euro really was better at 18z wrt the ULL being more amped and it looked slightly better out west. Hope to see that trend continue tonight so we can get back to our regularly scheduled MECS programming
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Good thing this is the mid Atlantic forum then. Ya know, south of the Mason Dixon
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When do we get into extrapolate the NAM territory (kidding, kinda)
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Not really. Majority of folks got 0 accumulation
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Agreed. Unfortunately, people saw 24” clown maps and anything less than that is a fail now. Verbatim the blend is a warning event for 95% of us
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Doesn’t come off hostile at all. I’m trying to learn, so I appreciate your insight
