jayyy

I haven’t been paying enough attention to the minute details to fully understand what you mean here. The storm in southern UT-CO you’re referring to… what’s the significance of it dying out in NW TX to our storm and it unfolding more like the GFS? (TIA!)

Hot off the presses… LWX pushes watches ever so slightly SW to include bay adjacent counties west of the bay and SE Howard. MOCO and DC left out still. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 146 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 MDZ014-017-018-506-211500- /O.EXA.KLWX.WS.A.0003.260222T2000Z-260223T1500Z/ Anne Arundel-St. Marys-Calvert-Central and Southeast Howard- 146 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 inches or more are possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Calvert, and St. Marys Counties. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult, especially Sunday night into Monday morning. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$

All jokes aside though— we’d probably all feel much more confident in this if the majority of guidance didn’t put our CWA on the western fringe of the coastal and we had the euro on board. GFS takes a very delicate setup and portrays a near perfect dance between multiple pieces of energy. And it’s been damn impressive to see it stick to its guns. I hope to fucking hell it’s right for once. Crazier things have happened. The others try and some get very close but don’t quite get there, which is still also a possible outcome. Or something in between. We’re 2 days out. A spread of 4-18+” on models 48 hours out for DC to Baltimore is pretty rough lol. I’d feel MUCH better if I’m CAPE or the Jersey shore to BOS. Still a little shaky in these parts given the setup, especially west of 95. Hopeful the inverted trough pans out and somebody between 15 and 95 gets smacked. Can def understand the anxiety given the possible gradient around these parts - especially for the western crew. I feel good, Randy. I’d love to feel great.

You know damn well you’d be shitting your pants if you were home, Randy! [emoji1787]

PSA - I’m proud to see no LR HRRR or SREF plumes on here. Way to go team.

Would be pretty wild to see the GFS hold this all the way thru but I guess crazier things have happened. Also, that inverted trough throws a huge ? Into this storm. Some area between 15 and 95 will see a rather impressive bonus. I’d HATE to be NWS trying to make a forecast for the area from Winchester to Baltimore down to DC right now.

Not that the ensembles matter much at this juncture, but curious if the OP is east of the eps mean

Certainly one way to look at it for sure.

Dr Fuck No (Jokiiiiiing)

It is. And it’s something we need to watch. AI EC may not get QPF distribution correct but it’s very solid up top. GFS has been leading the way and has been ROCK steady so it’s nothing to freak out over (4-6+ is still solid in late feb if AI played out) but we def can’t just toss. Edit — to CAPEs point though, physics based models for complex setups under 48 hours should be our focus

Euro ai not so good

778 comments on a thread created hours ago while I was at work. I knew it had to be good.

Euro AI is slowly getting there

lol the NYC forum must be confused

May be a bit east but bombs away next few frames

NAM looking like a middle of the road outcome between the gfs and euro (coastal wise) at first glance?

Almost time for our 6z NAMing/GFSing *summoning the snow gods*

At least we have 2 ways to score a little fresh pow

Ooof yeah SV looked way better

Poor Millville is at the weather desk right now staring at the GFS/GEFS and the Euro spitting out a 6” IVT dump on Baltimore thinking… what in the actual fuck

IVT hulk smash lol. 6+ for dc Baltimore

Models are still handling the evolution in the 24-48 hour window VASTLY different up top. Wild, but we wait another day for more clarity. Would hate to be NWS tomorrow night

What? I’m not talking about Hampton Roads or specific locations. What I’m saying is that models “showing a blizzard for HR that never materialized last time” is irrelevant to this current storm.

Literally irrelevant. Does that mean every time models get a storm right we should also assume they’ll be right next time? Different storm, different setup, different literal everything. Why even compare? It was cloudy this morning. Guess that means I’ll be dropping a solid deuce at dusk. (Roughly the same degree of correlation)

Thinking we see the “middle of the road” solution on this euro run. Improved but not GFS like. That’s 12z tomorrow