jayyy

Agree. 18-22 degrees, 20+ over a huge area from Nova to NYC and cold afterward so it sticks around. Def a low end HECS

Not for nothing… every major ensemble had this past Wednesday as a big hit for us 5+ days out and the OPs said nope. Turned out they were right.

It’s cool. We’ll just pretend it’s 2008 and that the GFS is of course too flat / late on phasing. Back then you could legit bank on it being 100-200 miles too far SE. Every. Single. Time. Go out to Fucking Sea is what some folks called it [emoji23]

Crazy dispersement of heavy snow from VA to NYC .

He’s busy measuring the exact degree latitude of the 50-50

Philly forum too drunk from the eagles parade to post the maps? Kidding. It’s a bomb for you guys too. Who has the zoomed out maps

20+ area wide is arguably a HECS in my book

High ratio powder for many. What a run. That h5 progression was legit

Snow maps above. 2 feet for Baltimore lol

Sign me up. 20” contour over mi casa

Somewhere between 0 and 20 inches. Enlightening. Idk how he does it.

Its SE / progressive bias is back

Perfect example. 60-72 hours AFTER this point is plenty of time for the storm in Canada to move out and for the storm out west to get its act together. We have seen large snowstorms follow warmer rainy storms that drop the boundary south numerous times. Skepticism is warranted, especially for a 12+” outcome in a niña… but if the rationale is wave spacing, that’s not it. I do agree about the path to failure if it were to happen - a progressive solution that hits east if timing isn’t just right. We’ll see. If models are still honking come Sunday, it’s very much game on. We DO get lucky in niñas from time to time, and it seems to want to snow this year.

That Saturday wave is riding “on the heels” of a storm that just dropped 8-10” of snow in southern MD on Wednesday. 4 days after Saturday is plenty of separation for another storm to brew and for the necessary pieces to move into place. Yes, it has higher fail risk than a big southern stream gulf low in a niño for instance… but it’s certainly doable. 4 major models all showed how tonight. Betting on 12-20” in a niña is never a safe bet by any means, but it’s also not impossible given the setup. Timing is everything though.

Queue the uproar if these exact solutions don’t hold for 6 straight days [emoji23]

He did call 2/20 as the kick off… and also asked for amped solutions by tonight’s runs. Snow whisperer over there

Uh… yeah

Listen Ji… we’re not pinning your 2/20 thread yet. Gotta keep the good juju alive

Haha, I’m messing with ya. I just know you’re big storm hunting!

Indeed. Just waiting for the inevitable that 50-50 is too far north and it’s actually a +NAO comment

Incredible… and as Heisy said, there’s actually room for improvement at H5 on the Euro despite this outcome. Everyone would be happy, but man… can’t help but chuckle at the southern MD jack [emoji23]

Where are you @Maestrobjwa and @osfan24 ?! Sleeping like peasants??? Wake up and smell the digital snow!!

You’re actually not wrong. That’s why I think PSU’s 120-150 hour window to reel things is spot on. Yes, the storm is 120-150 out, but what makes or breaks storms is the initial evolution up top. 96 hours out is late Tuesday.. which is a crucial time for this storms evolution. Don’t think it’s a coincidence that every major model moved our way at the same time. Especially at 0z.

The good ones tend to get sniffed out early. But agreed, lots of time for this to trend either more amped or more progressive. Huge improvement tonight though.

00z output Forum wide: GFS: 6-10” GEM: 12-20+” UK: 12-16” Euro: 12-20+” Wow.