jayyy

A lot of moving parts to try to resolve in a given window. Makes sense I suppose

For sure. Models seem pretty lost on how to handle everything in such a fast flow, especially given how weak all of these waves are. Guess we’ll have to keep expectations at nothing and be surprised if we get more

A lot of differences amongst models only 72 hours out from the small Friday wave. These busy NS dominant patterns have models confused AF Gfs now likes Sunday for the immediate Baltimore area after leaving NoVa high and dry. I’m sure it’ll play out just like that… [emoji849]

Chances on chances on chances over the next 2 weeks One’s gotta deliver!

18z GFS total snowfall between now and Christmas Eve. Obviously not to be taken seriously but man, that’d be something. Especially inland Details to be ironed out on how the pattern evolves from here, but we are definitely in the game for something solid by end of year

It feels and looks like snows coming… but it ain’t Happy for you southern forum folks! .

Kinda surprised at this 7pm snow lol. Decent sized flakes in Columbia as I left work. Car re-topped

Someone posted a 5” OBS above

1” in Columbia at work

Do share

Only have one run of the retiring NAM on our side.. what could go wrong lol

Just in time for the 12/10-12/11 snowstorm threat. Lets reel it in

Man, if only we had some blocking in place for the 6-10th timeframe… .

Honestly, I’d be content with 2” of snow up this way at this rate. Trends aren’t encouraging

Kind of makes sense given the high is sliding east off the coast — a SE flow - on December 2nd

Well out of both of their ranges though. Grain of salt

Where do I sign up for my 2 feet lol

Goal posts have moved a bit for sure. 2-4” N&W, trace to 2” closer to the fall line seems like a reasonable outcome to HOPE FOR at this point. We’ve seen a few last second moves our way the past few years but it is also so early in the season, and not mid January. Still time for things to shift but we should remember the date and our climo and temper expectations accordingly.

GFS seems to be making subtle movements toward the Euro at H5 since last night. If we keep expectations in check… a solid early December 2-5” type event (1-3” closer to the fall line and 3-5” up this way) that doesn’t melt immediately would do wonders for this forum. Especially with a threat or two possible behind it. I’d obviously love a warning level event with temps in the upper 20s up this way, but I’m not going to bite on the possibility of such a solution until 72 hours out.

Sweet run for sure. Only 8 days to go… doubt much changes between now and then (KIDDING) Nice to see a trackable threat show up early. GFS has been latched onto this general window for a few days now. Let’s keep our expectations in check this far out.

Models have been all over the place, especially with how they handle the PAC…. with wild swings from suite to suite. This is to be expected weeks out. JFC… everyone saying we’re doomed for December or worse - the entire winter - needs a break from the forum. Models have been overdoing the “upcoming warm up” for several months now and pretty much no models had us BN for November in mid October. There is a massive middle area between an epic winter and a total flop. Just keep your expectations in check. Can we perhaps keep the “winters over” posts in the banter or panic room threads?

ALEET!!

About as good as we can hope for early on in the season. If we can manage to squeeze out a 2-4/3-6 type event before dec 20th I’d be thrilled.

2-3 weeks of cold in December seems pretty locked in at this point. The million dollar question: is it cold / dry or do we some chances?

Tony Pann posted something… interesting “No Hurricanes have made landfall in the US so far this season. And only one Tropical Storm (Chantal). Over the last 20 years, there have been 5 years with no Hurricanes making landfall: 2006, 2009, 2010, 2013, 2015. The average winter snowfall for Baltimore in the following winter: 35" Obviously this could be correlation and not causation but it’s an interesting factoid.