jayyy

Nice burst at my brother’s place in Ellicott city right now too. Beautiful out there right now.

Some nice fatties falling at my brothers house in EC near turf valley

If we can manage a BN or even slightly BN February, (which would be pretty wild considering November - January was also BN) coupled with the STJ waking up… we could see a monster before the pattern eventually breaks down. Obviously all speculation but the ingredients seem to be coming together for the January 24 - February 10 timeframe to possibly be very special.

AIFS ensemble mean is lit up. Lord

Show us the dirty pics

Lemme catch you up: there was a 5-10” storm on the 18z gfs… It’ll disappear in about 3 hours on the next OP run and weenies will jump off ledges. Meanwhile, Cape bashes his head into a wall for having to repeat that people should be looking at ensembles this far out. You’re caught up. Now go drink

Flurrying on my drive into work. Currently on 29 south in Ellicott city .

That’s one way to put it

Been a long while since we’ve had an organized southern stream low run move across the south and run into an established cold dome. Simple overrunning setups work well here. Much rather a bowl pattern with an active STJ and cold air available to the north than have to rely on perfectly timed phasing, perfect ULL passes and unicorn farts.

Biggest run of the day for sure [emoji1787]

We know for a fact that models have performed very poorly outside of 7-10 days. The warm bias in the east by models 10+ days out has been off the charts for nearly 5 months now. A big western trough keeps getting forecasted, pumping heights to the east, we “torch”.. blah blah blah… it never materializes or ends up being very short lived. Temps have been well below normal all fall and winter. We are bound to see some moderation from time to time. Why you live and die by 240+ hour digital blue on OP runs knowing even ensembles can barely handle anything outside of 168 hours right now seems like a super stressful way to go about this hobby. The upcoming pattern isn’t going to have a big storm sniffed out by models 1-2 weeks out. It’s literally useless cliff diving this far out. Much more likely to see something pop up in the mid range (5-6 days) than you are to find a fantasy storm that models lock in on 1-2 weeks out

Exactly what I had in mind

Bingo. Give me a -EPO with some blocking and a flattish pna. Nice gradient type pattern with waves ejecting across the south into an established cold dome. The bob chill bowl / train tracks pattern. Much rather that than have both a roided EPO ridge and a spiked PNA. Simple overrunning setups work around these parts. They haven’t come very often over the past decade, but when they do.. they produce

SWS issued by NWS. 30% chance

Let the weenies suffer

Hell yes. I went to college at the university at buffalo. I very frequently LES band chased to the southtowns. So worth it. Dated a girl who went to Oswego. I’d go out there too when I could swing it. No shame in my snow chase game

Ji-bus answered your prayers

Super excited for your “0z took 18” away from me” post in 5 hours

Someone call the rock! The GFS just laid the smack down it’ll be a near miss by 0z and back again tomorrow and models will show 55 different iterations of this storm between now and the 9th. The board not having a meltdown over that 10 days out would be awesome. Or keep it in the panic room at least. For fuck sake lol

Could be worse.. everyone could be looking at 384 hr maps [emoji1787]

That’s a FOLKS!! Day 7-10 window is heating up!

Starting to feel like we won’t have to wait too much longer. The day 7-10 window is starting to peak my interest for a legit threat. The dominos start to fall in the coming days as the NAO retrogrades.

It’s like people haven’t lived here their entire lives and aren’t aware that we pretty much never get wall to wall cold and snow lol. Oh no… two weeks of transient weather before a pattern shift… how awful [emoji1787] Switching over to a solid pattern from mid January through early February is about as perfect timing as it gets.

Can’t take away what we never had bud. Wild that you live and die off these 300 hour clown maps each day. Must be stressful

Legit upper air pattern incoming and a bunch of chances to track. That’s really all we should be taking from models this far out. Specifics of a given threat is pointless at this range. If models hold this look for the next week, we have reason to get excited.