Is this going to be another day (like yesterday) where 6z & 12z look blah and things trend better at 18z and 00z? Or is this the start of a sustained trend for the worse? 18z and especially 00z will be very telling. If they continue the negative trend, then many of us are in pretty rough shape - even up my way. If models bounce back in our direction, we’re still in the game. Guess the only “positive” thing here is that these differences are *relatively* small from run to run. We have been very much on the margins all along, so as PSU said, being a couple of degrees warmer on certain runs is the difference maker. Even the runs that looked good (0z gfs cmc Ukie and icon from last night) it was a pretty close call with a very sharp gradient. Showed 6-10” near Baltimore but just a couple inches along the bay. That’s a razor thin margin. The good news is that mountains don’t need to be moved to get us back in the game. We don’t need huge shifts. If models are underestimating cold or the strength of the low by just a bit, we are well within the margin to bounce back. The bad news is that we are starting to run out of time here. Can’t remember the last time models had a storm, lost it, and got it back within 72-84hrs.