jayyy

Got a solid point there.

Why are you talking about politics and making things personal by name calling [emoji23] And what does carrying torches have to do with the fact that I’m pointing out why you’re wrong - backed by a comment made by a very knowledgeable member just a few hours ago. The biggest storms we’ve seen over the past 10-20 years have ALL been sniffed out on ensembles well before day 5. That’s just a fact. It’s inherently clear that you can’t handle having a debate, and you’re making a fool of yourself. Please move your emotions and bullshit posts to another thread like the panic room.

My beliefs are not errant whatsoever. There are METS in here who post ensembles well outside 5 days. PSU listed a plethora of examples of storms that were sniffed out at day 10 by analyzing the impending pattern on ensembles. The only one with “errant beliefs” here is you.

Fixed it for you. Ensembles are very useful up to the 10-14 day window, especially when analyzing trends and the big picture pattern. Ensembles are models as well. Posting 300 hour surface maps / thermals? Useless. The distinction matters, IMO. It’s encouraging to see the positive trends continue at h5 - especially in the NAO domain and seeing the PAC Jet relax. I honestly think we have a better shot around the 28th-31st than many think.

I’d take that type of setup in early winter all day long. Don’t want a wrapped up storm along the coast flooding the coastal plain with SE winds as it approaches. A 3-6” areawide type storm would be a perfect appetizer and would boost morale around here

Gauge showing over 1.2” over the past 6 hours alone. Easily over 2” for the event. .

“Very warm” is kind of a disingenuous way to characterize December thus far. Sure, it hasn’t been cold (rarely is in December nowadays - especially before winter has officially begun) but we also haven’t torched like we saw back in 2015 and in other strong niño years. It’s primarily been in the 40s here and I’ve seen 3” of snow so far this season. Certainly nothing to write home about, but it’s been better than what many, including myself, were expecting just 3-4 weeks ago. Highly doubt January ends at +4. I don’t think it’s front to end cold - nature of the niño - but I am going to go out on a limb here and say that January ends up being average to -1

What did I say just a day or two ago!? For late December, models originally had the MJO heading into phase 4 before dying out. Then they showed it going into phase 8-1. Then they showed the MJO getting to phase 7 before going null and now they are showing a more bullish phase 8-1 depiction again. You honestly can’t trust these long range MJO forecasts many have come to obsess over. It’s best to focus on the big picture and the main drivers behind a particular pattern. Any given model run’s 10-14+ day output (temps, storm track / precip type, positioning / strength of PNA , etc) is less important than the upper air pattern upstream that led to it. There are so many different moving pieces that will contribute to the advertised pattern change coming after Christmas. Expecting models to hammer down those exact details 10-14+ days out is a fools errand. As we all know, something that seems relatively small in the moment can lead to a domino effect downstream - vastly changing the surface outcome (IE: the difference between a long range snowstorm signal and a big ‘ole swing and a miss) Best thing we can do is look at the big picture and to analyze trends from run to run - which is the PSU approach. Now that we’re roughly 7 days away from Christmas, it is nice to actually see ensembles trending in our direction for a change, instead of seeing things get can-kicked back to D15 & beyond; something we’ve grown accustomed to over the past several years. Here’s to the positive momentum continuing this week! We could certainly use a win around here. IMO, we are honing in on a workable h5 setup to start off the new year. One that *could* lead to an areawide 3-6”/4-8” type event if we can avoid getting a super wound up coastal hugger. The southern jet is active and juiced up, this much we know. Now let’s get some seasonally cold air to our north and we’ll be in business.

Last 7 years have jaded him big time.

Wouldn’t mind seeing a T-1” on the back end of some drought stomping rain!

Good call firing up a new thread. Let’s keep emotions out of this one as much as possible, folks. Model analysis / debate = very much welcome Debbing for the sake of debbing while having nothing science based to back up said debbing = not welcome. Feelings are for the panic thread. Your feelings will be met with open arms over there. I, for one, think the LR ens look WAY better today at 500mb than they did just 3 days ago. Let’s keep the momentum going!

Bingo. +10 in Canada in January is still quite cold. Eastern Canada is “torched” is a wildly inaccurate representation of what that shows. Departure from average maps are not the same as temp maps. It can be +10 in eastern Canada and be negative here .

Man, today was a great day for LR ensembles. Certainly a workable pattern being depicted by the Euro, GEFS, etc.. with some differences in the exact evolution of the pattern. A very active STJ and the arrival of colder air / blocking = BOOM. Just a matter of having a smidge more patience for the Atlantic and NAO to improve. We’ve seen coastal storm after coastal storm make their way up the coastline in 2023. Fully expecting more of the same this winter.

Really not that gonna be that warm leading up to xmas… at all..

Soul stone baby

Going to reiterate my statement from roughly 2 days ago. There is zero use in debbing over a few days of meh model runs 300+ hours out. Models are 1000% going to flip flop a bunch given how many moving pieces there are. The pacific, NA, NAO domain, etc, are all going to be changing around over the coming 2+ weeks. There is zero shot models have everything nailed down at this range. The only thing we DO know is that models will continue to flip flop around until we get closer. Today’s model runs look a lot more workable than they did a few days ago. Could very well look like shit again tomorrow and then trend back in our direction next week. The key is to zoom out, look at the big picture, and hone in the most important players on the field. The rest will fall into place in due time. Will it be relatively warm the next 2ish weeks? Yes. Will it be a 2015 December torch? No. Will we have some chances at snow before Christmas? Probably not, but not 0% either. Thank you to all who analyze LR models so in depth each day and for passing on the wealth of knowledge you have. A colder version of 2015-2016 certainly wouldn’t be the end of the world. If we had hit on those 2-3 cold rain storms we saw, we would have had an epic winter. I’d take that in a heartbeat after the last 7 years.

I feel like it’s hard to trust long range MJO forecasts on models outside of like 2 weeks. Models have a tendency to kill off waves early. Models had the MJO dying off in phase 4 some weeks back, then phase 8-1, now phase 7 before going null. That ish flips faster than Ji’s optimism. Wouldn’t be surprised if they show something entirely different next week. Same thing with the AO. It initially looked to be positive most of the month, then we see a couple weeks where it looked like it would be negative most of the month, and now it’s flipping around AGAIN. Clearly lots of uncertainty on models as to what the upper air pattern will look like at Christmas and beyond. Wouldn’t get too excited or debbed this far out. It’s fairly clear that things are going to continue to flip flop around on models until we get closer.

Yep. My friends who live in Schenectady NW of Albany said they were forecasted to get 4-5” and it was still mixing this morning at 36 degrees. .

But wasn’t the pattern supposed to flip around Christmas week anyway? We knew we’d have a situation where we could *possibly* luck out with something minor in early December if timing was near perfect before we warmed up for a few weeks (typical niño climo) It looks like won’t see a torch either. PSU said a few times that he thought models were rushing the timetable a bit. Don’t really see a huge issue here. Perhaps models just becoming a bit more realistic on how quickly things shuffle. If it’s somewhat warm from now until Christmas and we see a solid January - February, that’s a W in my book. And textbook niño.

They got that bay inlet effect snow. [emoji23] .

Finally, a storm where I got more snow than my parents did in New York! Hallelujah. .

Airports (IAD and BWI) got roughly half an inch here - a little less. Northern MD in Carroll county and points west got 2-4” of snow. 3” of snow in my backyard in union bridge MD after 2” of rain .

3” final total LFG!!!! .

Side note - generally speaking, gotta love to see such a juiced up system. Have a big ole swath of mod to heavy precip spanning from Boston to Savannah. Bodes well for us down the road. #ELNINO

Good amount of precip to our SSW. Changeover seems to be happening a bit quicker than modeled. Come on baby, lemme see that 2” of paste! .