jayyy

Could be a mini jack somewhere in between. NW enough for better temps, SE enough for precip. Dare I say HoCo- BalCo area? Been looking that way on a lot of guidance over the past 24 hours.

At least you know you’d always have lake effect. I graduated from the university of buffalo and it’s honestly like nothing else. 2-4” of snow per hour, sometimes higher - thunder snow at times from these bands and insane winds. That band is easily 3-4” per hour. And they have another SW wind driven LES event comes Tuesday - Wednesday which is typically a long-fetch high impact event. The best place to move around there is the southtowns. Orchard Park where the Bills play is a prime spot down to around Fredonia.

Snow squall warnings up in PA this morning. Love to see it

Most models showing a general 1-3” with some showing lollipop 4-5” amounts in localized qpf maxes. Let’s see how things look tomorrow and lock it in.

Welp… snow is streaming over from Tennessee, which is usually our winning path. Just not the usual way we get there.

AKA the snap the BWI/DCA streak probability map

Can we extRAPPolate this for us or what?

Emotions and the ridiculous theory that it can’t snow here anymore lol

It would be pretty epic to see models 48 hour us back into a legit coastal but honestly, I’d take this current solution of a prolonged light to occasionally moderate snow event. It’s going to look and feel wintry out there and the metros should hopefully finally break their streaks. Let’s get everyone on the board at this point.

3-3.5” to get me to 6-6.5” for the season heading into prime climo and a solid looking longwave pattern? Why not. Sign me up.

Ninja’d by PSU. Was just gonna say… when the overall pattern gets back to classic miller a noreasters and coastal bombs / huggers, Winchester will once again destroy IAD in snowfall. Been a very weird last 7 years.

2-3” would def be a win

Ahh gotcha. Knew there was crossover. Thought I read somewhere NAM ensemble was the Sref but I must have misread it.

Id take 3-4” of fluff and solid cold to follow all day long. It’ll be a very wintry 24 hours out there.

A better run? Really? Didn’t it drop 7” on Baltimore at 18z

For sure. Gotta think there’s another NAMing inbound since it’s the Nams ensemble. Most models are actually in pretty solid agreement about the local max area that expands from eastern hoco’ish to points NE hugging the bay. BWI may end up actually being a pretty decent spot for this one.

Hard to jackpot when it doesn’t snow anywhere lmao

Weather gods punish permadebs

Pretty sure a CWA wide WWA would look like porn at this point.

Too early for that talk

No no! You keep the same thread when things look decent. We would be reverse jinxing it back to shit with another thread lmao

OP is preferred within 72 hours for sure but ensembles aren’t quite out of range either. If OP and ensembles match , that’s usually a good clue the OP is onto something

It’s like the inverse Jim Cramer effect… but for weather. DT or JB cancel = game on

I’ll have some of whatever the NAM is smokin’ I called it last night. NAMing would bring back interest lol can’t help but laugh at the irony at this point that being said… most models showing 2-4” type deal. I’ll take that as an appetizer to the 20th

Look! Another 1007mb low. Models love that number