jayyy

Damn it GFS. No coastal huggers at range. We want suppression.

I’ll take a suppressed SS storm all day at this range. Last thing we want to see is a flush hit at this range. Ask tomorrows storm. [emoji23]

Yep. The Albany area and places E had a watch for 1-2 feet. Since lowered to 8-16”. Poconos 12-18 lowered to 6-12, and even that may be too high. Central Mass is now 6-12. Still a nice storm but a far cry from the storm folks expected. Most models this morning say even those totals are too high. Rough. GFS still says game on for the Albany area into Mass with a major snowstorm but others say not so fast. HRRR barely gets anyone to double digits.

P20 and we call it a winter

Very highly unlikely, however I remember a storm where it snowed in NYC and rained in Boston, as well as one where it snowed in DC and rained in NYC. Rare, but it can happen. That being said, this isn’t the setup for such a thing like nyc raining and AC snowing to occur. That’s an extreme rarity.

I lived in the lower Hudson valley for 25 years, as well as the DC suburbs and the elevations of northern MD. I’d take NY climo any day of the week if we’re talking about the average winter versus DC. It’s just easier to snow up that way. NYC sometimes deals with more maritime issues being directly on the Atlantic, but generally speaking, it’s much better than DC. Maryland is weird though, cause I’d take my climo in northern MD over NYC. I saw over 50” a few years ago while DC didn’t hit double digits. 30-40 miles makes all of the difference down there. The one thing I will say is… the biggies that do work out for the mid Atlantic typically jackpot down there (January 2016 or snowmaggedon in 2010 for example)

4 times in 70 years is rare my dude.

True. Except they failed for nearly the same exact reasons this year. Can include Philly and Baltimore in that same bucket. Lack of cold air, blocking, no western ridge, a constantly flexing SER, etc.

GFS is either struggling to sort through its multi low depiction, or a lot of folks up north may be disappointed come Tuesday. Not sure I’ve ever seen models struggle so hard to find consensus under 24 hours. The spread among models is pretty wild at such short range. NAM has honestly been a joke this season. Showed 20” at 18z for places just NW of NYC and took it all away one run later. It’s 3k and 12k depictions are also worlds apart.

Indeed. Double digit snowfalls for CPK is extremely rare in march. Think there’s been one or two since the 1950s or some shit like that. It typically takes a near perfect evolution and unseasonably cold air to make it happen. Cold air just wasn’t on tap for the coastal plain this year. Damn western trough snaked all of our cold air. -PNA and +EPO for most of the season ain’t gonna cut it. DC to NYC metro relies heavily on cross polar flow for cold air. Just wasn’t a thing this season.

Same here man. 1” of snow for the year IMBY is the worst season I’ve ever experienced. I’m a New Yorker (grew up in the Hudson valley and went to college in Buffalo) so I’m used to down seasons at least having a few minor events to hang my hat on. 2015 has been the only good winter since I moved to Maryland - which happens to be the same year I moved down here. What makes it worse is the number of chances that failed. If it was wall to wall torch with 50-70+ temps,I would have been less miserable than tracking the mirage of threats we saw all winter (I know the pattern sucked most of the season but still) Precisely why I traveled to NY for 2 previous storms (Saratoga springs and Schenectady) and will be again for the Tuesday - Wednesday storm. It still sucks to not see snow at home, but it definitely helps the weenie soul to travel and experience a good storm in person.

NWS upton finally pulled the trigger on a watch for my folks this weekend. Looks like a lot of debate went into it.

I can definitely understand NYC / LI not getting a watch… but where my folks live 35ish miles NW of the city should for sure. They are just south of Orange County. They have much better climo / higher elevation than NYC. Lived through a bunch of snowstorms up that way while NYC was mid to upper 30s with cold rain or mixing. March makes it more difficult but with 3 major models showing 8-12+, I’m shocked to see no watch or advisory. You’re definitely right about the inverted trough situation. It’s very dicey for that area

12z gfs says hello Miller A around the 23rd. Snows from Northern GA to southern New England with coastal locations favored. It will of course change being 10 days out but the potential is there for a legit major east coast storm

Euro showed the overall evolution yesterday too. That storm is our best shot. NS relaxes and we get a consolidated SS system. Pattern is fully entrenched at that point. Let’s reel it in. I know, I know, 10 days out, it’ll change…. But this is our best shot yet given the current look. We just need the NS to stay the fuck out of the picture.

My weather app alerted me that it’s snowing back at home. Cameras at home verify snow is indeed falling in Union bridge. Nice sized flakes too!

The fact that Rockland county has no advisory or watch up is insane to me. I get that the forecast there is very much up in the air… but the GFS has a solid 6”+ event, and the EURO / NAM both dump over a foot… no watch to warn people!? That’s ridiculous. .

The fact that the NAM & Euro both drop over a foot and the GFS says 7-8” at my parents place but there’s no watch or advisory up is pretty wild. Not sure I’ve ever seen such uncertainty this close to a storm for their area. They are typically right around the fall line (87 - NYS thruway is about 7 miles to their south) A true nowcast situation. Hope it doesn’t fail. I’m bringing mid Atlantic mojo with me afterall [emoji23]

Latest NAM. Wild. 10:1 is overblown but they get destroyed by the CCB. On my way up to my parents place as we speak. Euro is on board but not as heavy with the QPF and the GFS says about 8”. 0-20”…. What a forecast. [emoji23]

I saw 45” down at my old house in Montgomery county MD. Amazing storm. .

I’d hate to be a weenie or NWS in the nyc metro area. The euro dumps 12-18” at my parents house. NAM dumps 20”. The RGEM and CMC say mostly rain. Less than 12 hours out from start time too.

Nam is being decommissioned for a reason. It sucks balls. .

I’d hate to be NWS right now. Euro and Uk show a foot or more for Rockland county and their snow map has 2.8” for new city with no watch up. They seem to be leaning toward the warmer solution and climo - understandably so, but damn! Tough spot to be in if the euro and Ukmet are indeed correct.

Watch for 1-2 feet in the capitol region in NY. What a crazy march for them. They’ll get more snow in an hour than we’ve seen in 4 months. Can only laugh at this point.

Gfs still hammers places inland. Rockland and westchester are also mainly wet on that run. Albany and points east into the western MA elevations jackpot.