jayyy

Out to 54. Confluence a smidge better, SW a smidge weaker in the 4 corners region vs. 00z gfs

I will take any move toward a colder / snowier solution as a win tonight, especially with how the GFS CMC and Ukie trended. Looking for: 1. confluence and the HP look better on this run vs 6-18z as far as strength and positioning is concerned 2. Focus continues to move away from the OV and toward a consolidated SS storm that tracks SE of here We’re at day 4.5 or so… this should historically be in the OP euros wheelhouse. .

Feeling a lot better about the prediction I made earlier today fa sho Let’s get it done! Sub 60 hours from watches being hoisted! .

Shit. Apologies, the posts pile up quickly in here when things look good. Didn’t see it above. .

Ukie says game on too

Whoever gets lucky and ends up being just west of the R/S line but stays primarily snow is going to get dumped on with the dynamics of this storm. 10-18” may be a tad high but still What a shift in just one suite. Still lots of time left though. Let’s lock it in. Sticking to my guns, especially for my area over to PSUland. Low level warning snowfall looking very likely with the potential for more.

GFS and CMC hop back on board? Mmmmkay .

I’d lock in that 6-8” all damn day. Honestly, a nice 4-6” storm would be a great way to kick off our new pattern. Certainly prefer the 12+ it showed 1-2 days ago but I won’t be picky given the past several years. .

Def was not expecting that output on the HH GFS. That banding setup is insane. End up with 7-10” imby despite the evolution looking meh at first. The GEFS is also interesting to say the least. Essentially removes the OV lows and focuses everything along the coast. Less precip but less mixing concerns up this way. Certainly curious to see what 0z looks like.

Agreed. Hoping to see the “bleeding” stop, if you can call it that. I still think this is still typical noise at range but who knows for sure. If 18z and 00z look the same or slightly improved I’d feel better about that. .

I don’t think it’s ultimately going to be that close of a call near the MD PA border once the dust settles - especially for places near 81 and 15. We’ve seen this song and dance before. Still thinking it’s 90%+ snow for those areas as things stand right now. If the low tracks as depicted by the GEFS, I feel pretty confident in seeing at least a low level warning level snowfall for my area, PSUs area and clskins area. The area that’s most unknown is 95 and the immediate DC / BAL metro. Gotta think Baltimore will fair better than DC in this setup. So long as the primary doesn’t trend stronger / hold on longer, I feel pretty confident in the above scenario. Going to be very interesting once we get into meso / short term model range (nest, NAM, etc) Globals tend to paint a broader brush as far as thermals are concerned and overlook some of the dynamics driving where the R/S line ultimately sets up. Think one thing is pretty certain here… the gradient is going to be awfully sharp between areas that stay primarily snow just west of the fall line versus areas just east of it. 6-8” versus 1-3” within the span of 20 or so miles is looking pretty likely here. Question remains: where? .

95 is not out of the game yet. Better to be in Carroll county than Baltimore or DC for this one though it seems (hello, climo) Need the coastal low to develop and deepen quicker to flip wind direction and mitigate onshore flow for the 95 corridor / metros to be able to maximize. Going to be a close call for those areas for sure.

Yep. Precisely what I’m saying. There’s no reason to be worried about some wobbles at this range. It’s extremely rare to see models lock in totals 120+ hours out and hold it all the way up to an event. Normal noise at this range. .

Models improve their accuracy as we get closer to an event. More current information = more accurate data. Not sure what’s “debunked” about that. My comment had zero to do with 0z/12z vs 6z/18z. It’s just a fact that models have more current information as time passes, which narrows the outcome envelope. Not worrying about noise from run to run unless we see a sustained trend begin.

Let’s see what 12z and beyond have to say. Closer we get, the better sampling we’ll have. We may also see some changes in guidance come Wednesday night when storm 1 departs the area. Not going to get too worried 100+ hours out. .

Looks like a 20 mile shift N for the 0c line. Let’s just hope it’s a wobble and not the start of a trend, especially for I-95 on east. Feel pretty good about this setup for our neck of the woods PSU

NAM at 84 hours isn’t even NAM distance lol

Ninja’d by Terp. No high = LP railroads through the coastline. We’ll see what the euro has to say later on. Not too worried at the moment. Especially up my way. If the Euro / GFS hold serve, that’s all I need to remain confident going into the 4 day range.

The goal posts have tightened substantially from just a day or two ago, but there’s still going to be waffling on exact jackpot zones for qpf, the exact location of the R/S line, timing of the transfer to the coast, etc. It’s all noise. 50 miles here, 25 miles there. We’ve seen this song and dance before. Models trend north as we hit day 4-5 and then they settle back south leading up to game time as models get better sampling on the confluence leading in. Sure, we’d love for models to show 12+ in our backyards for 5 straight days, but we all know that rarely happens. Looking very solid for many of us right now. .

That’s over a foot in Ellicott city. Not a bad run AT ALL .

The trend has undeniably been colder - better confluence, a stronger / better positioned high, and an earlier transfer to the coast. Trends have NOT been warmer the past 72 hours. Quite the opposite in fact. .

When does the GFS bring in precip? Did it continue the trend of earlier onset or is still looking like a Sunday affair? Gotta think late Saturday night would be ideal vs later into Sunday morning - afternoon

The new Ji… Rates overcome marginal surface temps as mid levels stay cold enough. Has happened many times before. I-95 gets a mauling of precip, which mitigates that issue. As depicted, that’s heavy snow at 33 degrees, not rain. It’s not a lock, but if the storm evolves as the GFS depicts, DC to Baltimore would see warning level snowfall with more snow to the WNW.

I’m relaxed Ji… haha. I’ve probably been one of the most optimistic folks in here regarding this threat. Just wish we were closer than 5 days is all. .

18z GFS is a mauling for the DC - BAL corridor. NYC gets in on the fun as well. Great suite.