jayyy
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Everything posted by jayyy
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Hi Res models bringing 10-11” totals to the Columbia - Baltimore corridor as well. Interested to see how that area does since it’s my biggest ?? going into this.
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Huuuge run. I’d be pretty stoked if I’m in BAL MoCo HoCo and points N after tonight’s runs. Should see warnings hoisted soon.
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One of these models is terribly wrong. Hopefully it’s the UKIE
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Solid GFS run. 6-10 for many in the sub. 12z tomorrow will be very telling as we’ll be able to use higher res models for specifics on banding and more minute details surround temp profiles. Curious to see the NBM blend for 00z
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GFS HRRR RAP NAM3K/12K WRF all on board for a forum wide warning event. Let’s reel in the CMC ICON and Euro tonight. Many of the models on our side are inferior to the varsity models outside of the GFS.
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Wow. If the GFS looks anything like this … woof .
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Yessir. NOVA Central md & dc beat down confirmed.
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DC beat down at 36. Manages to stave the sleet off and we all know places that manage to stay just north of the mix line get hammered
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NOVA DC Central MD smack down coming? Me thinks so.
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Almost all of that is from the initial low
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Curious to see what the varsity models have to say with new data in. That HRRR run was crazy but we should take that with a grain of salt unless other models begin to back it up.
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Woof! 11.1 in Baltimore proper before the coastal takes shape. That’d be somethin’ alright. Now that PSU has identified what’s causing these model differences, it’ll be interesting to see how the next 12-18 hours play out.
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Good callout. We can parse through 50 models every few hours, but ground truth is also important.
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It may be consistently wrong, but goddamn has it been consistent
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I did like the uniformity of the 3k and NBM’s precip for sure. Less complex
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Yep. Still think you all in Columbia are very much in the game for 6-10” totals. Models tend to underdo the northern band and with the storm being further south this go around, I think that’s more likely your area than the M/D line.
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The 500 plot above is not a -PNA .
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Pretty sure the NAM is already in line with the GFS for the most part.
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Yep. Makes a lot of sense. Someone’s going to get caught between the dual band structure for a time. Rising and sinking air and such. Hope it’s not Baltimore but it very well could be.
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ICON came in more in line with the NAM RAP HRRR GFS for sure. Not a huge bump north, but certainly noticeable for central MD
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NAM overamp bias? We shall see. Man oh man, the battle of the models continues. We’re talking about 75 mile shifts in any given direction but those shifts means the world of difference for the N and S fringes of the forum. Central MD seems to be sitting pretty for this one right now.
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Thanks, I know. Usually their maps are a bit tighter than 4-8” though. But again, it makes sense given where things stand currently.
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Reasonable to give a range given some of the uncertainties we face. Seems like they considered our local climo and a blend of models for that call.
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Surprised anyone here actually still tunes in to their forecasts tbh.
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Dare I say it…. Actually pretty reasonable .
