jayyy

My parents have two simultaneous WWAs in effect. 2-4” today, 2-4” tomorrow. Mofos

Will be very interesting to see how Mesos look going forward.

For sure taken with a grain of salt. All we should be taking away from these ensembles is that cold air availability and moisture transport could be plentiful over the next 3 weeks.

Gonna need to change my briefs after that 12z ensemble suite. Lordy.

That’s the ensemble mean? lol. AI EPS gone wild

So we need a la niño? [emoji1787]

That was fucking awesome. Forget details and 0c lines this far out. Cold air a plenty and an active southern jet is chefs kiss.

Thats a very reasonable forecast, IMO. 0.5-1” with colder areas (NNW) and areas seeing more precip (east) seeing the upper end of that range is a very common sense climo based approach to a storm that’s largely going to miss us. Could we boom and many of us see 1-3”? Sure, it’s possible… but mt holly isn’t going to put out a new map based on the RAP and HRRR 24 hours out

Pics or it didn’t happen

Shit, I’d take another 1-2” (TWSS) especially since today and tomorrow looked dead 48 hours ago. Looking at the RAP and HRRR 24 hours out is a dangerous game to play though. Has my parents getting 6-8” in the Hudson valley. No other model is nearly that aggressive

FO… ?

Don’t think the GFS is gonna do it on this run, but booooy the potential is there for something big to come across the country.

Congrats! Just a small appetizer to gird your loins before we get cooked Jan 22 - February 10

Looking like there’s 1.5-2” OTG at home… in line with the WWA in place 0.4” in EC

Tomorrow would be in the 16-19th thread

I’m intrigued for tomorrow. Come on SR models. Do your thing

It’s certainly felt like winter all season. Now let’s get some moisture up in here!!!!

Been pretty remarkable to watch models back off long range depictions for 5+ straight months now. Can’t remember the last time we saw such a thing - especially in our favor. LR models continue to show our PAC pattern getting obliterated, they drop a deep trough into the PAC NW and pump a SE ridge downstream.. and it just never materializes. We end up losing the favorable PAC for a short time with some transient warmups and then things reload. Over and over again. Not sure how ENSO will impact any of this as we lose the Niña… but generally speaking, if we can get the STJ going with the 500mb setup we’ve had in place most of winter, the next 3 weeks has the *POTENTIAL* to be the best period we’ve had since 14-15

I know it’s the 12k NAM but 6z had 2-3” all the way back into central MD. Curious to see if the NAM holds strong on that idea today.

Nice burst at my brother’s place in Ellicott city right now too. Beautiful out there right now.

Some nice fatties falling at my brothers house in EC near turf valley

If we can manage a BN or even slightly BN February, (which would be pretty wild considering November - January was also BN) coupled with the STJ waking up… we could see a monster before the pattern eventually breaks down. Obviously all speculation but the ingredients seem to be coming together for the January 24 - February 10 timeframe to possibly be very special.

AIFS ensemble mean is lit up. Lord

Show us the dirty pics

Lemme catch you up: there was a 5-10” storm on the 18z gfs… It’ll disappear in about 3 hours on the next OP run and weenies will jump off ledges. Meanwhile, Cape bashes his head into a wall for having to repeat that people should be looking at ensembles this far out. You’re caught up. Now go drink