psuhoffman

This is troubling but a sample size of 2 is hard to draw strong conclusions

Let’s just use pure math for now to set expectations. If we use Ninos that reached > +1.5 during winter 5/9 or 56% had a HECS. If we use years that reached > +2 during winter 2/3 or 66% had a HECS. Clearly we have a significantly elevated probability of a HECS this winter. But yes for the DEBs the caution is the years in that analog set that didn’t have an HECS were really really really awful winters for the most part.

Ok im going to nerd out and vent here. For those who dont know, after they got creative control from Stan Lee Marvel decided Spider Man was easier to write for single and also said, and Im not kidding, that fans relate easier to a single lonely spider man. Apparently they think the fans are all incels. So they had him make a deal with the devil to erase his marriage to Mary Jane to save his 70 year old aunt. And no they arent unhappy in their marriage. They are both insanely in love which makes the story even more insulting. And frankly character destroying. How can you root for someone who would do something that horrific? The writing was lazy. The premise was ridiculous. The justification was insulting. It’s the one time Stan Lee violated his agreement not to criticize Marvels creative decisions. He also undid it in the news comic strip he kept editorial control of before his death and severed the continuity between his strip and the marvel comic because he was so upset by what they did to his character. The main writer at the time MJS who also wrote Babylon 5 wanted his name taken off that issue he was also so bothered by it. My reaction was simple. I checked out. I have not read or watched a single Marvel anything since. Not a single spider man. Not a single avengers. Nothing. I won’t give my money to an organization that insults me to that level. What amazes me is I’m not alone in my assessment of “One more day”. It’s widely considered the most hated comic story ever. There are thousands of online forums dedicated to how much people hated it and want them to undo it and put Peter and MJ back together. But then I see those same people posting about going to see Avengers or the new Spider Man movie. I am just as annoyed with them as I am Marvel. If they stopped giving them $ like I have they would have undid their mistake a long time ago. When I started my own personal boycott 19 years ago now I thought it would take 5 years tops before they undid this nonsense. It was so hated. But everyone got angry then continued to read and watch anything marvel put out and 19 years later I’m still waiting. I won’t ever read or watch until they undo OMD and get them back together and I don’t mean the casual dating they sometimes allow I mean restore the stable marriage they had and stop thinking spider man had to be a miserable single screw up to be a compelling character. His most popular run was the decades he was married. Anyways why are people supporting a franchise that would insult them this way? I don’t mean the casual fans who have no idea what I’m talking about. I mean the ones who fill up Reddit with how mad they are then go to the next movie.

my response to him was the best one

The configuration matters also. Some of the guidance is strongly east based and some is basin wide with one model I saw still indicating a mostly west based. If it does go super nino, a basin wide configuration gives us a much better chance at one huge event than the east based look on the euro. That last euro run would be a 1998 type winter. PUKE

Apparently he is ill. I only know what was posted in this thread a bit ago.

I Don’t wish harm on anyone and hope @RevWarReenactor makes a full recovery.

Just saw this...so sad. RIP

Sorry if I can't articulate this clearly and concisely enough. I've been thinking about whether and how to say this for a while. This winter there have been several examples of posters screaming "bullying" anytime someone says something they don't like. I am neurodivergent. As an adult I'm able to mask it well enough that it's not as socially crippling as it once was. But I am intimately familiar with what bullying is. No one on here is being bullied! No one is being doxxed. No one is being threatened. No one is being personally mocked or ridiculed for who they are or their preferences. No one is being cruelly made fun of for being weird or different. Calling out bad behavior or criticizing someone's actions is NOT BULLYING. Especially when it's done in a non threatening, and often only half serious, way in an online forum. I know the internet is generally a cruel harsh place, but this forum is one of the most positive communities I am a part of. Even when we are fighting and criticizing it is mostly done in a non threatening way. I don't know if the bullying thing was thrown around as a calculated effort to deflect or mute criticism knowing the weight of that word...or if some people are confused about what real bullying actually is. But I wanted to say this because bullying is a serious thing, and something I am very conscious of, and I wanted to make it clear what goes on in here when we banter with one another, is not bullying in my opinion, and saying it is minimizes real bullying.

1) IAD has had accumulating snowfall after March 10th 38 times in the last 63 years. 60% of the time. 2) Change your screen name, if you're going to be this big of a douche shit poster at least don't associate it with Eagles fans, we have enough bad press (often deserved) without you piling on! 3)STFU

That was a monumentally shitty post, and we've had enough shitty posts in here over the years to be able to spot them!

We have this debate EVERY TIME there is a projected snow after a cold front and its exhausting. I've been out west and seen snow accumulate after an 80 degree day multiple times! It doesn't happen here as often for several reasons but that doesn't mean it can't. Unlikely and impossible are two very different things. And just because something has not happened does not mean it can not happen. One thing that has to be factored in, is it does not get to 80 that often during the winter, so the opportunity for this to happen would be limited so the fact it has not happened might just be limited sample size not a function of it being impossible. As we see more extreme temperature swings happening this kind of thing might become more common. It matters what the temperature is WHEN it's snowing...not the day before!

if we have an east based super nino heading into fall...then yea best to just assume the winter is going to be a dead ratter. I know you were joking but some do just automatically assume Nino=Snow. Which is funny because I remember after we had 3 dead ratter nino's in a row, 1992, 1995, and 1998, the prevailing thought before 2003 was Nino=warm snowless winter lol. Then we had a run of extremely snowy nino's and it flipped the other way. The truth is somewhere in between and that it depends on the details.

I don't get excited about enso before the summer, but if that is real...well if that is real and we don't break out of this snow funk I give up.

There were several other reports from near 3k feet in that area and none were close to that total until you got west of the Allegheny front from upslope. As a skier I am well aware of how EVERY ski resort inflates snowfall. Not some. Not sometimes. Every single one every single time! Some do it by making their official measurement spot a bowl location that they know is a local max zone on the mountain. Others just flat out make up a number. But in 30 years of skiing having been in at least 30 snow events at 20 different resorts not once did any of them report the snowfall honestly. I was just at Killington last weekend and they got about 6” and reported 11. It’s just what they do.

Thanks "Mostly" Nostradamus

I have no idea what you're upset about... I was just pointing out how lucky it was that right after there was a dispute about it...that there just happened to be a new member who just joined who also just happened to be at Wintergreen so they could use their first posts ever to verify the ski resorts claim of an anomalously high amount of snow compared to everything around them even at similar elevations. What's controversial about those facts?

Wow kinda crazy how someone that just happened to be at WIntergreen just happened to join right now and their first post is about this. Crazy huh

thanks, and what would you suggest?

I meant the GFS. You said it’s not…ugh never mind

Yes I discovered it’s getting warmer. Right after Al Gore invented the internet.

It was south

No wait a minute… if he wants to give me credit for discovering it’s getting warmer…

I know it’s facetious but that 2014 storm it was in the mid 20s and it’s only warmed like 1/2 a degree since then. And the 2018 storm was even more recent and not really that borderline when the snow was falling.