psuhoffman

If the pattern is MJO driven, then yes. But the MJO wave configuration can shift from season to season also. Other patterns don't necessarily shift seasonally the same way as consistently either. My main point was that snowfall is so fluky and rare in the mid atlantic in October and early November that using that alone to be predictive of a bad winter is problematic. Having a cold "favorable" looking pattern early in the season might be a better way to look at it, and those results are more mixed. Like I pointed out before 1995 and 2002 both started off early with a cold look that then lasted right through much of the winter. Other years started off mild and that lasted right through the winter. Then there are plenty of years that were variable and the pattern in October into November was absolutely no indication of what would come. What I would definitely agree with is that having early snow is in no way predictive of a good winter coming. But I would stop short of saying it is predictive of a bad winter either.

Correlation and causation aren’t the same. There are so few examples of super early season snowfall outside the mountains that it’s hard to place any statistical significance on it. Yes “most” years where there was snow very early ended up not good. But when roughly 60% of all winters end up “not good” AND there are only a handful of examples in that data set...its impossible to say there is causation. Imo it’s just random chance more than anything. Look at 1995/96, we had snow in November. What if that cold shot has been just a week earlier? Somehow there is a magic date that changes everything in seasonal progression? In 2002/3 it snowed in October just to our NW. So if that storm had tracked 100 miles further south it means that winter would have sucked? I don’t buy it. It’s just a fluke combined with the fact most winters suck so anything can look predictive of a bad winter.

One of my favorite events ever was the 8” of snow up here in October 2011. No lull. Just steady heavy wet snow that stick to everything. Wouldn’t mind an early season repeat. Of course the winter that followed sucked.

This might help, this is BWI snowfall broken down by enso state years. You can see that neutral actually has a slightly higher mean/median snowfall than weak nino. The adjusted average is with any obvious outliers taken out. This chart helps give you a quick snapshot of how we perform by enso category. But I would take some of the older years in this set with a grain of salt now. Of course the problem is if we start to only look at the last 30 years we end up with too small a sample size for each enso state to have a significant data set. Catch 22

Not exactly. First of all last winter was a normal winter, and actually better than 50% of them in the urban corridor. It would have been perfectly acceptable to MOST (sorry CAPE) had it not been for our inflated expectations due to the favorable enso look. On top of that we have had plenty of great winters in neutral enso years, and even a few rare ones in nina years. So I am most definitely NOT saying we will only score a snowy winter in stronger nino years. As for a weak nino specifically... that also depends on other factors. I am just saying that a warmer base state of the PAC SST in general may mute the impact of a weak nino. And all analogs from more than 30 years ago should be taken with a grain of salt as we are in a vastly different climate regime now. But if a weak nino acts more like a nuetral that still doesnt mean we can't get snow, just means weak nino's will be more dependent on other factors. Last year the MJO and QBO didn't really help us out any. Both stayed in phases not helpful to blocking or an eastern trough much of the winter. And yet we still managed a decent winter regardless, just a letdown compared to our lofty expectations. This year with a neutralish enso we are again at the mercy of other factors and right now those other factors are in conflicting states. Some favorable, some not. To me that probably means a variable winter with some chances but not wall to wall awful and not wall to wall good either. If we simply use climo that probably means about 9-18" in the urban corridor with a bit more NW and a bit less SE. That is simply going with a straight climo expectation of what a "typical" winter is for our area. DCA median snowfall is about 10", BWI about 15 and IAD about 16. If the positive factors like the QBO end up dominant perhaps we end up with a better result than that, but its hard to predict above normal snowfall here when we typically only get 3/10 above normal winters and the signals are mixed going in. But we have had plenty of snowy winters that weren't expected to be such at this point.

Sorry it took me so long to post on this... been really busy lately and just started looking at winter a little. I agree that further refinement of these years would be needed...but I think the point of this does show that our current QBO is a positive factor. Other variables could shift...so could the QBO if it fails to continue to decline as expected, but overall if we look at all the years with a similar QBO progression they ranged from "run of the mill" normal winters to blockbusters. None were total dud years imo. CAPE, your concern looking at the H5 is valid but if we look at the actual results its not as bad. Sometimes a long duration mean like that can hide details. The worst was probably 2007 but that year included wasting the first half with a god awful pac pattern, and then getting pretty unlucky with several good opportunities the second half. 2005 could have easily been a much better result too with some luck. So in the last the QBO would argue that this shouldn't be one of the really truly dreadful years. It is always nice to eliminate those from the range of possibilities. However, with such small sample sizes there is always the chance that such a result is well within the goalposts and we just haven't had one yet. Count me in the group that thinks using older analogs is becoming increasingly problematic due to changes in the base state of the climate and SST's. The pac is a raging inferno now compared to 50 years ago. I think that is likely making the typical enso atmospheric response less reliable in years without a very strong signal. So perhaps looking at the whole scope of QBO analogs isnt a bad idea. Of course...the more recent analogs are the less inspiring of the cohort so that isnt as encouraging. The other signals right now are very conflicting. I have never had less of an opinion going into a winter as I do right now. Maybe that is my own over reaction to last year, but I wouldn't be shocked by either a total dud non winter or a blockbuster or anything in between. I can see valid arguments to support any of those outcomes depending on what factor you think is most important and will dominate. Statistics and probabilities would argue the lower end of the range of possibilities is favored simple using climo of course.

your Right grammer b vary Important with out it youre posts arent goood

Is it just me or does that seem a bit early for a storm that doesn’t start until Friday night and mostly is over the weekend?

This isn’t perfectly accurate in every spot but it’s a good representation.

But if you want a serious answer go northwest and totals rise gradually but then spike significantly near Damascus where you get an elevator rise along the southern end of Parr’s ridge. Damascus is the closest (relative) location with a significantly better snow climo.

Umm there are places in DC that aren’t within 30-45 minutes of DC during rush hour.

Don’t disagree at all with any of this. I’m not worried about the specific micro looks yet though since the climate models have been awful in this pattern lately. There are conflicting signals. Some things I like. Some I don’t. I have no idea yet what will end up the dominant influences this winter. I was just noticing at the macro level everything seems skewed warm. That’s not necessarily a death blow but when we are barely cold enough to snow on the southern fringes of where snow can even be considered a regular occurrence seeing things skew more and more warm isn’t comforting.

The whole northern Hem is a torch though. Other than two small geographic regions everyone is above normal heights. Everyone is focused on our exact location of course but it’s highly unlikely any specific location would look good given that hemispheric look. Technically there is a trough in the means over us but it does us no good.

Jb predicted above normal snow. Unfortunately his predictions are more predictable than they are reliable.

Plenty of sunshine though.

The San Diego snow weenies are in trouble! Jokes aside...on the macro level the propensity for everything to skew warm is troubling. Of course at the micro level it doesn’t mean much. We just need a couple good weeks to skew cold and time it up with a few storms to “win”. But seeing red dominate so often isn’t something I feel good about.

That’s a whole lot of red everywhere... I’ll keep the rest of my thoughts to myself so as to avoid a debate I’d rather not have in here. Cue Avant Regent Vice Hiatus in 3...2...1...

I agree with cape. If ALL the factors stayed the same yes. But the weak nino wasn’t the problem. It’s just it wasn’t dominant enough to offset other negative factors. The mjo was the biggest problem. I’ll take my chances with another weak modoki nino and roll the dice that other things don’t line up to hurt us again.

He isn’t trolling. It’s not intentional.

That makes sense and I agree. Other variables skew a small sample but when I sorted winters by enso last year with the exception of a few blockbuster neutrals skewing neutral enso state upward what you described is pretty evident in the overall means.

But what about the hemispheric energies?

Some speculated that the pacific being on fire muted the nino because of a lack of gradient. If that is true...with the rest of the pacific still a raging sst inferno if we do get even a slightly cool neutral to weak Niña look might that behave like a super Niña due to the extreme gradient?

No one is policing your posts. But people are free to respond to your posts and dissent. You can expect anything you want! Im just pointing out the reality of our climo.

Or to put it another way...go back over the last 30 winters or so and be honest with yourself and determine how many would have left you satisfied by your current standards. If it’s way less than 50% then either your expectations have to change or your location.

Yea well you know where you live. People have to be realistic. We have enough records going back long enough to know that the majority of our winters will be sub 20” in much of this forum. And when we get a lucky run like 2014/2015/2016 we know we will pay the piper. The median snowfall for places around the cities isn’t likely going to suddenly jump from 15 to 25” like that. So enjoy the 3 or so years each decade that we get flush hits and realize the rest of the time is likely going to suck. That’s our climo.