psuhoffman

He is getting way too much play both good and bad imo. Yea he skews warm and maybe his location and frustration is why. That’s a rational conclusion by cape. And I do think his posting of one gefs run as validation was questionable but I’ve had plenty of dumb posts myself. But he often makes astute posts. He isn’t a hack imo. But he also busts plenty too. Everyone does. Even the absolute best. I’m not saying we shouldn’t post things, but sometimes we go off on a tangent over one persons opinion. It’s good to note it and track what knowledgeable people think but I’m not getting too invested in one persons long range crusade. At the same time I’m not spending effort blasting him repeatedly either. Maybe he is right. Maybe not. We will find out.

Mistakes happen over 60 mins. Good teams win and you don’t remember them. But when your offense is painfully limited by the most god awful wideouts I’ve ever seen any mistake is amplified in the damage it inflicts. But my god their receivers are so bad it’s ruining what’s otherwise a pretty good team imo. It makes it hard to even evaluate Wentz imo yea he missed some throws but EVERY qb does. Except Wentz can’t afford too because the receivers are so awful that unless he is perfect they are screwed. I don’t know what’s worse, the 3-4 uncontested drops a game that end drives, or the fact they never ever make a play. 50/50 balls are more like 90/10 against for them. They never go up and bring down a contested catch. And that’s especially bad when they also don’t get open so everything is contested. I know losing Desean wasn’t the plan but that’s no excuse for the rest of the WR core to be this atrocious. And I hope they cut Agholor and just eat the last 5 million they owe him this year. I know that last play was a difficult catch but the throw was perfect and it’s a play you just have to make. He never makes that play, and worse drops 1-2 easy catches a game on top. Im sure the others behind him aren’t any better but at least it would be someone new for me to be upset at every Sunday end rant. Back to over analyzing every model run to make over reactions about the winter

Talent is important, but there are provably between 6-10 teams that have enough talent to win a super bowl every year. Some years, like last year none get hot and they just pinball all year until I’ve is left by accident. But every so often one of them starts to build chemistry and play cohesive and just look like they are all on the same page. When that happens it might not be the teak with the “most” talent (or who we thought had the most) on paper but watch out. The eagles had that happen for them a few years ago. The ravens look like that this year.

Yes but he posted one run of a model as it confirmed his call.

Way late to the party but my thoughts are that I’m not getting bent about marginal flaws in long range runs. The seasonal guidance is crap mostly because of the worst look up top I’ve ever seen all winter. So anything that looks ok in that regard is a win right now imo. We’re still weeks away from legit high probability tracking season anyways so sweating specific flaws now is silly. Now if we start to see a big blue ball settle over the entire arctic circle with nothing but a ring of red around the mid latitudes ala the seasonals then I will begin to edit my expectations.

Depends... last year the great looks would frequently penetrate from the weeklies into the day 11-14 ensembles range. But never past day 10. But when they would repeatedly collapse back and day 14 would look like crap again on the eps the weeklies would still magically flip the pattern by the end of week 3. It did that numerous times. So no matter what the eps shows day 14 if the weeklies is making a mistake based on a factor it’s miscalculating it might be likely to continue making that error so long as the same background state persists. It never corrected itself all winter last year.

The rest of the winter will be so bad they will record a negative number.

BWI: 0.3" DCA: 0.1" IAD: 0.7" RIC: 0.00001

Sorry I was busy today. As Ralph said what I see there is a split flow. It's not perfect but I am ok with that look, especially during winter. The southern jet is crashing into the southwest and lowering the heights there but so long as there is riding over the top and a decent pattern to our northeast with lower heights in the Newfoundland regions with ridging over the top of it... those systems should mostly be forced to slide across the south and not cut to our west. That may not work in November, but in mid winter that would be an ok pattern.

I see nothing on any guidance that troubles me much. In about a week we will start to get an idea if this pattern rolls into December. If so I will get more optimistic. So far so good.

Never had mine.

The gefs has actually been doing better lately. But that wasn’t really my point. I’m more excited by the repetitive trends in the pacific in the short term and the signs the PV is being best around in general then I am the fluxuations in the long range NAO.

You only look at the EPS?

RR would have too much fun with that.

Woah slow down. I’m still trying to figure out how to tie my shoes and chew solid foods!

Yea it does. I keep thinking how a lot of the primary and secondary analog years I found features early season snowfall. So given that and what we are seeing it wouldn’t shock me to see an actual threat pop up faster then some might think.

Thanks for posting this! 69/70 was one of my top analogs too. Pretty much agree with your expectations. Your presentation is excellent. It should be required reading as a crash course in pattern recognition and drivers for anyone that wants to get into this! Don’t be a stranger this winter. Love your input here.

Try the long range thread

@Bob Chill BTW...2002-3 shared a lot in common with those years after the blocking in December faded. From Jan on the NAO was positive with a weakly - AO and yet the pacific bullied the pattern very similar to those other years. I bring that up because 2002-3 is a great match wrt north pac SST, IOD sst, QBO, and Atlantic SST profile. The only flaw is enso. And some of those other years share some commonality to the pattern now also.

1960-61 Raging positive NAO. 40” at DCA. And the rare trifecta of above avg snow all 3 winter months. 8.7”, 13.6”, 18”. 1961, 1994, 2014 all had the commonality of extreme ridging in either the epo or pna domain that bullied the pattern downstream. They also all shared that the AO was neutral or slightly negative because the ridging in the pacific domain was so extreme it encroached into the AO domain. 1994 didn’t end as well wrt snow but it was only a slight adjustment on a few storms from being an epic snow year in DC. 1994 though featured the furthest west of the ridge axis on the pac side of all 3 years and so more SE ridging. 2014-15 was perhaps the true oddball. Yea 3 instances in 50 years is rare but 2014-15 is the only example of a raging positive NAO and AO all 3 months and still above average snowfall. We got super lucky with a consistent pna ridge and a PV often parked over Quebec for much of Feb and March. That extreme and rare combo overcame the most hostile high latitudes possible. There are no good comps to that in the last 50 years and we will probably not see it again.

The thing is usually storms run the temperature boundary. So it’s hard to get a ton of precip and be under a monster ridge all winter. It’s also hard to be near the boundary all winter and never end up on the right side for any of the storms. We only need a few to hit Climo. Rare years like 1998 can happen where the whole continent is void of cold so storms ride the boundary between sun tropical and cool but not cold enough air but that’s rare On the flip side it’s also hard at our latitude to be consistently so far north of the boundary all winter that we are just cold/dry for a very long stretch. Yea 1977 can happen but that’s equally rare. What’s more common in a bad pattern is that we get transient cold where we never make it that far into the cold airmass and there is no mechanism (blocking/displaced PV/ 50/50) to resist the push of warmth that will naturally come with the next “wave” in the atmosphere. Without any resistance once the flow backs ahead of the next wave the boundary races to our north and the storm cuts as it rides that boundary. Hence warm wet cold dry. But other than having fun with the running joke that’s not really a problem of “dry during the cold”. It’s a problem of the longwave pattern not being right to offer enough resistance to the WAA that’s comes with 99% of any precip event (other than that rare late bombing perfect coastal we get once every blue moon while a white elk runs by and a leprechaun does a jig on the roof). Usually we can see hints of that problem in the pattern. Any really cold pattern is likely to be a little “dryer” since storms run the boundary and if we are that cold the boundary isn’t likely close. But sooner or later a wave will come and of there is enough resistance in the flow then...boom. Give me the right longwave pattern from range and I’ll take my chances on the details once the short range comes.

Guidance hints at a split flow to me with energy crashing into the west that occasionally lowers heights there. That can work. Probably not in late November but give me that setup between about Dec 15 and March 5 and I’ll roll the dice.

Eps had no appreciable change from the last few runs.

I see nothing alarming on today’s ensemble guidance.