psuhoffman

That’s what the panic room and banter is for. Both are active and we see it. It just doesn’t blow up the main discussion. If blowing up the discussion is what you want...then tough. I actually like your act. I find it funny. But the problem is there are 20 other posters that also want to do that and if allowed whenever the pattern isn’t good or we get screwed by a storm the discussion thread would turn into a hot mess of bitching and moaning.

It’s also close to a storm setup. If that PV lobe can end up just a slight bit east of where it is on this prog that is a good look to keep that system out west to stay under us. Been watching this evolve closer to a good look the last 36 hours. So far the euro isn’t buying it as much but it’s moving the right way too. I know using an op run at range is risky but until ncep updates the GEFS we don’t really have an ensemble to look at for the dynamic core FV3 version of the GFS.

Haven’t been there since I saw Webb’s epic meltdown a few days ago.

You shouldn’t have turned to Fitzpatrick if you wanted to tank. He has games like this and will win a few.

I appreciate this sub even more after lurking in the NYC thread today. It’s dominated by weenies hugging every good run and tossing every bad one without much legit analysis.

Sadly if the Eagles win out they still win the division on tie breakers with the Cowboys at 9-7. Today was a clinic in how to F up. Penalties. A trick play. A dropped pass that would have set up a first and goal at the 2. A missed FG. They are a poorly disciplined team.

A standing wave in the central Indian Ocean is kind of a wash imo. Ideally we want a standing wave near the dateline. But I’ll settle for just keeping the mjo out of amplified phases 3-6 this winter.

2 in December isn’t as good as later in Winter. It’s kinda what we see now, not warm but typically not cold enough. I’ll take it vs the alternative though.

BWI: 20.4 DCA: 15.7 IAD: 23.6 RIC: 14.9 SBY: 12.2

Hopefully this ends the drama. I do agree it’s time to move on and I don’t wish him any ill will. My “unstable” comment was perhaps harsh considering he is a teenager. He is just a kid who needs to mature.

I didn’t know I was the toxic media.

Lol he thinks I called him crazy because of his plagiarism. It was more because he looked me up on Twitter and wanted me to drive to Delaware to fight over some map I posted then made weird sexual comments.

Guess he wanted to prove my point.

I don’t think he is mentally stable.

Yea I know who it is now...he messaged me on twitter wanting to meet up to fight because of that map I made poking fun at everyone’s tendencies and made some weird sexual comments. Here is a comfy thought, he is also a gun enthusiast.

Is he the kid from Delaware?

The MJO hanging out in warm phases isn’t good. But there are a lot of factors that drive our snow chances and some of them run in cycles. It does seem like we fight a hostile base state more lately BUT we also tend to score more frequently when the pattern is good. I wouldn’t sweat any one factors short term tendency all too much. We have been doing alright anyways. Just for some perspective. Snowfall at BWI by decade. Avg and # of above normal years. 1970s 17.8”/3 above 1980s 18.5”/4 above 1990s 17.7”/2 above 2000s 18”/2 above 2010s 24”/4 above so the last decade was the best in Baltimore for snowfall since the 1960s. Obviously it’s not hurting us that much. If anything the extremely anomalous 3 year run from 2013-16 raised expectations such that the last few winters seem worse than they are. While not great they were a pretty typical 3 year stretch. Nothing too awful by historical standards. Truth is we had the best snowfall decade in a long time yet some people act like we’ve been getting screwed. Does the mjo matter, yes. Will it hurt some if we spend more time in phases 3-6, yes. But we’ve been ok and other factors have a say too. It’s also too small a time scale to make long term conclusions imo.

Was gonna say I remember that name from a poster on here who was pretty awful. God help them if anyone takes him seriously on Twitter.

I don’t bother to engage with him. Besides the fact you can’t disagree with him without it getting confrontational, he also is passive aggressive and will clearly imply something then play “who me” when called out on it. I have no time for those games.

He is being an arse

The look of the seasonals is pretty much gone. Even on the weeklies it’s mostly ambiguous with some mediocre looking weeks and acrually a period right after Xmas that looks pretty good imo.

It’s been good imo. Just a few posting random doom predictions and others who don’t know better over reacting to it.

How do we know the mjo is actually going through the torch phases 3-7? The last attempt was completely thwarted and guidance is ambiguous right now wrt if this next wave progresses. GEFS thinks it is but euro and CMC guidance suggests another aborted attempt. I have very low confidence (even compared to normal) where we go past day 10

I’m not concerned but will point out the smoothed our blah look on the ensembles day 10-15 is not because they mostly think that will be the pattern. It’s becagas they have no clue with huge divergence and a mean that combines a lot of variance (some good looks and some bad) into an ambiguous mean. In short that look is not likely and it’s going to end up adjusting one way or the other and depending on which camp is correct we could end up with a pretty good pattern or a real crap one.