psuhoffman

If other guidance can shift towards the GFS/FV3 idea of the secondary being more dominant I would be happy. I will take less snow (say 4" vs 6") if we could get some low level cold air to hold due to a secondary and finish with some snow otg. There is a big difference between a thump snow to dryslot and 33 degree drizzle (miller b solution) and the same amount of snow to a 12 hour driving 48 degree rainstorm imo. I know some don't care about that difference but I do. I don't need snow to stick around forever...but at least long enough to enjoy it for a couple days.

I think this fallacy is due to 2 things... 1. We don't usually track the details on a rainstorm. There is a HUGE areal coverage of rain in any system, but a fairly small area of snow. We only care about the snow. We can be 50 miles or 500 miles from the rain snow line and it makes no difference to us. We also don't notice when our qpf goes from 1.25 to .75 or from .75 to .5 in the rainfall area. We stop following it closely once we are out of the game for snow and so we simply assume...rain is rain and it never changes but it does. 2. There was a time when outside of 48 hours systems were MUCH more likely to trend north than south. That time is gone. Inside 48 hours they still mostly trend north. But outside 48 hours systems are just as likely to trend south as north now. We have had several snowstorms the last 5 years that were supposed to go north of us at day 5. The December storm trended south between day 3-6. The January storm was rain at day 7+. The anafront wave last week trended southeast from range. It happens a lot now but I think the thought that north is more likely than south persists even though that bias in the guidance has been corrected.

If we can get it east of the dateline (as it seems to be heading there) it would be a good thing. One thing I continue to see and that just confounds me, is this implication that we need something to mute the nino signal. First of all it's been muted all season. Second, a weak to moderate basin wide or central nino is NOT a hostile signal for eastern CONUS cold. I thought we were past the time when people just plastered the super nino climo onto every +enso.

No... I am skeptical of that temporary dip on the eps mjo. BUT...even if its real so long as its not the start of the permanent wave de-amplification we would be ok. I was just pointing out that it is not a coincidence that when the EPS goes into phase 8 the trough gets into the east...then the mjo wave dies for 3/4 days and the trough retrogrades into the west...then the MJO wave spikes into Phase 1 and suddenly the NAO tanks and the trough shifts east. The other guidance takes the MJO into phase 7 instead of 8 day 6-10 and so it keeps the trough axis further west during that time. It's pretty apparent that the MJO is still driving the pattern here, or in this case, driving the models interpretation of it.

H5 changes are good..less energy holding back, more emphasis on the lead wave the goes under us, but the high is worse, weaker and further north so that might offset some of the positives.

Start of the SOI crash looks to be 3 days away. Tropical convection looks to align perfectly in the central pac starting in a few days as well. Everything is still progressing. We are crossing inside the time period where it evaporated the last time this SOI/MJO look was showing up in mid January. I am not sure that dip in the MJO on the euro is real... it may be, but as long as it is only temporary and the wave progresses into 1 after we will be good. But none of the other guidance has a deamplification there so I am not even confident its real.

LOL at how the MJO is still the driver here... The GEFS looks less favorable day 6-9 because it keeps the MJO is phase 7. The Euro gets into 8 and looks better. Then the Euro crashes the MJO for a couple days and that is exactly when the SE ridge pops back up...before the MJO goes into 1 and the trough starts to shift east again at the same time.

Before I open this can of whoop a$$ let me first say I appreciate your input so don't take this the wrong way but..... Why are you comparing the day 10 EPS to the day 16 GFS? Why are you cherry picking the one very brief period where the WAR pops up as a transient period on the EPS? Its gone again soon after and by day 15 there is a monster 50/50 signal again Some people can have more than one train of thought at the same time. It's possible to discuss both the threats within the next 10 days AND the period after 10 days. One does not necessary detract from the other. There are many times (90%) when your snow climo isnt THAT far off from most of this sub. HOWEVER, a -EPO/-PNA pattern with no blocking is NOT one of them. Your chances the next 10 days are significantly better according to climo than most of this sub. You can win with that look...its much harder for DC to win with a SE ridge without NAO blocking...so maybe there is a regional reason some on here are "looking" ahead to a possible period of better blocking. Places south and east of DC are very unlikely to score a significant snowstorm in a -PNA without blocking. This is the EPS day 15 which is a more fair comp to the GFS day 16 panel you were comparing it too .... which the guidance has been trending towards for a while now...and I suspect that SE ridge will continue to get muted more and more if the NAO look is correct (all guidance trending towards that) and the soi/mjo signal is correct. There is absolutely no basis for a strong SE ridge if we have a -soi, phase 8/1 MJO, and a -NAO/EPO. The weather never ceases to amaze me so anything is possible but if those other signals are correct the boundary will end up south of us in that pattern. None of that means we cannot score before that. The threats next week have my attention, especially the one towards next weekend. BUT... for those of us south of you the more blocking we get, the further south we can drive the boundary, the better our chances to score. This week has opportunity but its flawed and history suggests we end up on the wrong side most of the time in this type of pattern. Add nao blocking and suddenly history suggest we win. Those are just the probabilities based on climo and analogs.

Normally I would agree...but in this case we would get the waa thump anyways and the precip from the primary is rain. Our only hope to end with snow otg is a miller b progression. Thump to dry slot and hold some low level cold air in. I know you don’t care about that but i do. It looks like a cold period coming up and it’s not too late for us to get a prolonged period of snow otg. Especially up here, I’ve had 7+ day periods with snow in late feb or March in 2007, 2010, 2014, 2015, 2017, and 2018. Would be nice to lay down some glacier at the front of the cold period that’s coming. And I definitely think it’s coming.

It has a tendency to over amp systems which causes wild swings in the one feature we care about most. It’s h5 scores are good though! Lol i also think it’s percep bias. We don’t see it as often and it’s supposedly “good” so when it busts we notice more. The euro had a similar look just 24 hours ago. The fv3 had a bomb. The gfs went from a cutter to a snowstorm to a cutter to something in between in the last 36 hours. The gem...is the gem. So is it really any worse?

I don’t care what thread it goes in so long as it ends up on my lawn!

He is baiting you

Got cold?

Don’t feed them

Unfortunately the dumb angle guarantees we will have to talk about the sun angle every year!

I could live with that.

My weenie handbook says you hug it.

I agree I was just giving you a hard time.

I had big depression after March 2001. About a month That was a rough one for me too. I was recovering from a bad ski accident I suffered in January that year. Had to take a semester off from school for it and so I couldn’t plan a ski trip to cope which is my typical MO. Sucked to end an already sucky year that way.

Yep...thus the hecs hunter suit. But 1993 storms are rare....I don't remember any great storms between feb 20 and 28. And early March reminds me of heartbreaks like March 2001 I think leesburg had back to back 8”+ storms in March 99. We’ve had lots of moderate storms in March lately. Have to go back to the 60s and 50s to see true HECS storms. But things are cyclical. Maybe if the -NAO is coming back so are March storms.

3 hours ago called to say it wants it’s news back.

Maybe. I believe it. All year the mjo and soi have dumped on us. Last time I got pessimistic mid January it was because the soi and mjo had looked good day 10-15 and was going to crap again. Then the pattern started to degrade. This time the soi and mjo are trending better in the short range and the pattern is responding. But I took crap for debbing a couple weeks ago on late Jan and early February. I’m honestly fully on board with the potential Feb 20 to March 10...maybe longer.

No. Day 15 and would degrade by day 10. This is going the other way.

Yes...but I also think that look day 10-15 is good. Day 10 starts with a lot of cold in place. The se ridge is muted. That blocking and 50/50 look suggests waves won’t cut. That’s a better overrunning wave setup. I think the se ridge is likely skewed by some members that go crazy with it. Watch the eps continue to adjust that trough axis east some future runs. After that if we transition to a split flow with the pac jet undercutting that becomes a hecs look week 3-4 imo.

Dude...soi is crashing hard and mjo going apesheet into 8/1 and that happens inside realistic range. Eps and op suddenly bringing back NAO blocking day 10+. Monster 50/50 look. Trust me we’re going to end up on the winning side of that gradient after day 10.