psuhoffman

@C.A.P.E. most of our big second half of season snows featured a trough near AK and off the west coast. If you have blocking to clog up the flow and prevent the pac jet from blasting acrosss with shorter wavelengths late that works. Of course if you don’t have any blocking that same look in the pac is a disaster.

The most likely way that evolves is actually as we lose the (useless) west based epo ridge that trough in the west splits and a piece retrogrades unti an eastern pac trough and the eastern piece cuts under into the east and some pna ridge can pop in between. As we head towards March with shorter wavelength that epo near AK becomes less and less helpful and getting rid of it might ultimately help.

Most of the times that look rolls into a good pattern.

Like I added above...better is better so that’s good. But in these marginal setups that issue can throw the gefs snow mean way off.

How much of it is the bogus sleet/freezing rain crap? Especially since it seems to count even stuff that falls at 33-34 degrees lol. I really wish they would fix that. ETA: better is better...wasn’t trying to say it’s not better, just wish we got a better interpretation on “snow”

I wasn’t trying to change anyone’s mind lol.

Maybe...but I do work and have life to deal with and if the window to enjoy it is 6 hours there is a good chance I’ll miss it. We should stop this though. Some don’t care if it washes away. Some do. Neither is right or wrong. Different opinions based on feelings. Arguing about this is silly and will muck up the thread. I’ll keep my displeasure at rain to myself from now on to not bother those that don’t care.

I wouldn’t have said it like he did but I get where he is coming from. We have had a weirdly unevenly distributed snowfall year so far. I think some here that are already close to climo are in stats padder mode. A few more minor events and they will be happy. But for those still way way below climo we are “save this winter with an epic run” hunting. A couple minor events won’t cut it. On a personal note, while I do like snow while it’s falling and it’s pretty...I mostly like snow for functional reasons. I like playing in it, sledding with my son, taking walks at night with the moonlight making it sparkle. All that is rendered moot if it washes away immediately, especially if I’m at work when it’s snowing. But to each their own. Some will be happy with 3” that’s gets washed away and no one should ruin their enjoyment.

Crazy CAD signatures for this range on eps. Makes sense with the blocking.

Ok seriously someone explain to me why if we have... -NAO, 50/50, -epo, -soi, mjo phase 8/1 we can’t get the trough out of the west day 10-15? What is pumping that eastern ridge? What am I missing here?

Holy ridge bridge with a 50/50 day 10 EPS

Euro = Next Next Next Ji would say this euro run sucked. It really did. I suppose it does end with a mediocre pattern day 10 but 3 cutters next week. 99% rain. Boundary stays to our northwest the whole time.

@Ralph Wiggum and the euro is why I am looking for blocking in the long range. It might not go down that way. I’m not claiming this is the solution. There is a good high around so a fluke could happen. But the euro just spit out a total fail scenario with two cutter rainstorms next week. And that is very much possible in a -epo/-pna pattern without blocking. They favor a track nw of us. If the epo was centered in western Canada or there was a tpv in Quebec I would be much more excited but the pure h5 pattern shown is not a good snow look for us. Luckily the long range looked great on the gefs. Hopefully the eps concurs shortly.

Euro=next Except next = next too

What good is snow if before I get to go out and play in it with my kids or go sledding or make a fort or snowman it turns to a pouring rainstorm? I liked the miller b idea of a 3-6” thump to dryslot I thought we might be trending towards. The primary way west with a driving rainstorm idea not so much. But to each their own. I dont want to much up the thread. Sorry.

I don’t buy the Sunday/Monday thing and the real storm is all rain on the gem. Don’t look at the fv3. Really don’t look. Hopefully this is just a hiccup.

Don’t see it. Slightly more snow maybe but then warmer and a lot more rain so odds are worse ground truth when it’s over.

Nice!

Euro weeklies match the cfs and jma exactly

E4 it is... its another straight weenie run all the way through too.

You ninja’d me. Euro kind of went this way too if you disregard it’s weird lack of qpf. I’m becoming slightly more interested...

Hybrid is what we want. Get the waa thump. Then enough secondary to keep low level cold and weaken the primary. Dry slot. End with snow otg. If there is no secondary and the primary cuts our temps go to 45 and we rain hard.

This panel is the greatest risk of snow. The 2 after are the greatest risk of a big storm.

I can see my March 58 redux in there

Lol no it doesn’t...it’s decent with that blocking...but we knew it looked that way because that’s just the end of last nights eps. The weeklies start day 16. Plus that transitions into a great look as the blocking slowly shifts the trough east. This is all contingent on the eps (and gefs lately) progression being correct. The transition week would be the risk of sw to ne waves. Think the pattern now but shifted south. After that we would be in the more classic pna NAO pattern needing coastal amplification. Hecs hunting as ji would say. I can see a mix of feb 2003 transitioning to March 1958/1960/1962 if i channel my inner JB. Its a damn good run. Whether it’s right is another matter.