psuhoffman

18z Gefs is the straigh up honest to god weeniest run of the long range I’ve ever seen. The only time I’ve ever seen so much snow on an ensemble is when we were within 7 days of a major storm. Never when all the snow was 7+ days away.

Both are equally likely/not likely. Overall I find it unlikely we manage to get missed by all these waves.

Oh I’m not looking past anything. There are like 5 waves in the next 2 weeks and each will affect the one behind it.

Gfs op showed us the disaster fail lol. North south north south lol.

There were a few odd runs off and on that had a hint of something there. It’s not totally out of nowhere. But it was way down on the radar.

@Bob Chill that pna ridge will dump that trough into the east which will retrograde that east based NAO ridge over the top and we roll. Gefs gets there also but a day or two faster.

I still count 14 members that miss us south with at least one wave in the next 2 weeks. That’s still pretty good imo. It trended north slightly with next week because of a less amplified weekend storm. But overall it was still a great run with plenty of snow south of us even. It did lose the crazy south solutions. No more Atlanta storms. But still a few NC and southern VA ones. That’s fine and as we get closer we want those Deep South solutions to trend north, I mean unless we actually want to get missed to the south like December!

The changes next weekend were better for creating a threat there but worse for next week. A convoluted split weaker system next weekend could pop a low under us and snow but it will not set up as much of a suppressive flow behind it for the wave next week. So we paid Peter by robbing Paul on that one. It is possible with just the right balance to pull off back to back hits. It’s also possible with the wrong balance to end up failing totally. A bombing cutter next weekend increased chances after it. I’m not complaining or debbing, maybe we end up getting some snow from both, and if they fail it’s not the last chance imo. Just saying the weaker south trend next weekend degraded the threat next week some. I’m convinced “the look” is finally coming. Pac is finally getting its act together wrt the forcing we “expected” all winter. Better late than never I guess. I also expect we jump to it faster than guidance thinks. We are seeing that trend now. The next 2 weeks are the transition. During that time I expect numerous waves along the boundary that will be shifting east in the means but not in a continuous progression, so rain is a threat during any flexing of the se ridge or over amplified systems but overall I will be surprised if we make it through the next 14 days without getting clipped by one of these waves. After that I think things slow down but we enter the big game preserves and go HECS hunting to finish the season. Of course it doesn’t have to be a hecs, not every coastal goes just right, but the idea the tail end of Feb into March will be eastern trough with blocking and hope for amplification up the coast. That’s how this pattern progression plays out in my mind. But even if I’m right that doesn’t guarantee us snow. We could get unlucky with waves missing in all directions then maybe after one storm gets suppressed and another bombs late and we somehow get skunked...but I really don’t find that the most likely end. If anything I think it’s more likely we get more than one warning event than none. We will see. Landing gear is down. We’re coming in for final approach. Gonna be a bumpy landing to this one!

Yum Guidance finally shifting the trough east. Blocking. Lots of chances during the transition week before this too but it’s way too complicate to key on and one wave. The weekend affects the storm Monday which affects Wednesday which affects the weekend after.... but there is wave after wave with highs around and cold lurking and the mjo and soi in favorable phases now. I’ll take my chances.

Gfs with the weenie run.

I actually like DT more than most. Us eagles fans have to stick together. But right now he is full tilt off the rails and someone needs to give him a hard time to shock him back to reality.

The problem with the national weather gurus is snow can hit almost anywhere and they claim victory when we only care about our yards.

Both strong looks for day 9

He is going to bust so bad. He said it’s a bad pattern the next 2 weeks not just for the mid Atlantic but northeast and New England too. Forget the fact the northeast is getting a snow/ice storm NOW. I don’t know where the couple of threats day 7-9 and 11-12 are going to hit. Some runs go south. They could shift north. But there is a limit to how far north. I would say this storm now is kind of the northern bound to where those go if the trough amplified too far west again. I find it extremely unlikely that no one in the east all the way to New England gets no snow the next 2 weeks...even ignoring the snow falling now. Lol

Psuhoffman. I know not very diverse.

I don't forget. It ruined the storm for me. I bet I got 2 inches of liquid that was sleet. Instead of 46 inches...I only got 28 or something Ok lol. No one got that much other then really high elevations because to get that much qpf was likely too much WAA and a warm layer was guaranteed. Places that stayed all snow only got about 20-30” also. And our snow lasted longer because of the sleet. In early March I drove down to northern VA from Penn State and the 18” up there was long gone but there was still a glacier on the ground in your area.

I’m trolling DT on Twitter...good times.

Thanks. Appointment is tomorrow. Wish it was today, snow I can handle.

Fv3 looks like PD2 lite. People forget that changed to sleet all the way into PA.

What ops are you talking about. At 0z the gfs, euro, and gem all gave us snow day 7-10.

Eps mean jumped up again. 8” in DC. 6.5 after this event today. 8” after today northern 1/3. 14 members miss us to the south with a snow event. 27 flush DC hits almost every member has some snow after today.

Everything is on track. The last 48 hours has been a steady step up in the pattern looks and last night hit the warp speed accelerator. Gonna get busy in here soon. It’s hilarious... the soi tanked yesterday and the mjo reached the threshold of phase 8 and suddenly the guidance adjusts. What’s been amazing is their inability to identify and properly factor in the pacific tropical forcing at range all winter. It’s as if past day 7-10 the guidance would revert to “what the forcing should look like” given the sst anomalies.

Stay vigilant

Winter seems to be January-March lately.