psuhoffman

@C.A.P.E. We were tracking the CFS a while ago. lol Maybe we are looking at the western trough wrong...CFS gets to a good look week 2-4 but it does it by retrograding the western trough west EVEN MORE...and then shifting everything west including the trough in the Atlantic. There were a few times where I thought that might be a better way here than expecting progression...that just hasn't happened all year. Of course the problem is the CFS does that by going absolutely berserk with nao blocking week 2 and that forces the chain reaction. Nothing else has that look and the nao has been mostly a fail every time this winter.

Agree on the retrospective, but with the soi mostly neutral to positive and the mjo cycling around 4-7 all winter the non nino features infecting the pattern made sense. I’m more confused to see a -soi mjo phase 8 and still not get the typical pattern response.

There are a few we know will DEB every year unless it’s 2003, 2010, or 2014. Basically that once every 7 years kind of anomaly where we get 200% snowfall is all that can keep them happy. The other 85% of the time they will be miserable. But this year there are still pockets of mediocrity around our region and some of the debbing is from them. CAPE has every right to be frustrated for instance. As for me I go with the flow. When the pattern looks good and I think we have a good chance of snow I’m saying it looks good. Go back to last year, I was getting complaints that I was being too positive sometimes. I wasn’t debbing in early December. I thought that pattern was legit we just missed. And I didn’t deb the early January storm, I was one of the few that saw more upside than a weak waa wave from a few days away. Just wish the northern edge had been 25 miles north of where it was! But when I see things I don’t like I say that too. If you need a safe space and don’t like the honest truth both good AND BAD then put me on ignore. But I don’t think saying things look bad when they actually do look bad is debbing. That’s being honest. Debbing are the people that put a negative spin on everything or are never satisfied unless it’s a HECS. Btw I’m not jumping off yet. We had a bad run. It could flip back. And we have legit snow threats before the crap look. But what are we supposed to do when a crap run of guidance comes it? Just ignore it and don’t talk about it so people can be blissfully ignorant? I don’t get the complaining about “talking about bad runs”.

2 of those 3 are in the other thread. The one in this thread is kind of approaching the near range edge of what I consider "long range". But I hope people don't mistake the conversation and speculation I am having regarding the "long range" days 7-15 as having anything to do with our chances of snow from the 3 threats before that now entering the medium range. But at the same time... it is impossible to ignore the degradation of the pattern look week 2 right now. Especially when I expected and predicted it would evolve towards more +PNA -NAO and eastern trough and it is going the exact opposite way right now on all guidance. Question... do you have any thoughts/opinions what might be driving the SE ridge? With the SOI tanked and the MJO into 8 it's obviously not derived from the PAC tropical forcing. Is it the downstream effect of the north PAC blocking ridge forcing the trough into the west...and if so why is that stuck there despite favorable pac forcing? OR...is the SE ridge being caused by another forcing source and is blocking up the flow upstream and forcing the trough/ridge alignment out west to be where it is? Any thoughts?

The thing is, that look around phase 8 should be a good thing. Yea it retrogrades back into 7 but not until VERY late and I wouldn't put any stock into it. The GEFS has been doing that for a long time and wrong. Look at where we would be right now according to the last 15 day GEFS forecast vs now... Even as recently as 48 hours ago the GEFS thought we would be looping around 6/7 right now and we are now into 8 just like the EPS showed. I expect the GEFS to continue to correct. Also...the statitical guidance based on analogs suggest progress into 8 and perhaps 1 is likely. The constructed analog CA has been doing the best lately so maybe a loop in 8 is the right idea but it doesn't regress to 7 and looks to be progressing again at the end. Besides...a loop in 8 is WHAT WE WANT! But unfortunately that does not ensure results. The EPS has been progressing the mjo through 8/1 and it has the trough stuck in the west also. Maybe the euro does that due to bias, and the gfs does that because of mjo error. I suppose... but I keep expecting the adjustment to the expected soi/mjo phase and it's going the other way right now honestly. Either way the SOI has already tanked and stays that way for the next 10+ days. There is subsidence all over the maritime continent, and the forcing is out near or east of the dateline on most guidance. The problem here is not the mjo imo. If we fail its something else. It's possible that there is something else pumping the ridge in the east and that is shifting the pattern upstream vs us looking at the PAC and expecting changes downstream. I honestly don't know. I've seen recently others seem equally confused, some chalking it up to chaos, I've yet to see a good theory as to why we might not get the expected reaction to the soi/mjo. Even Furtado hasn't mentioned any causality, simply an observed effect.

Thanks...found it

Where did you get that? Hasn’t updated on my source yet.

You convinced me...grab your pitchforks and torches and meet me at DTs

Biggest problem long range I see compared to better looks before is a combo of little things that add up. The biggest two are the trough out west is less positively tilted. It’s not really centered west of where it was but it’s not positively tilted so it’s pumping the ridge more instead of ejecting energy over the top and suppressing it. The 50/50 is more consolidated instead of a larger area of lower heights stretching back to our north. That combo creates too much space between the western trough and Atlantic one and so the ridge can pump more.

Gefs trended towards a weaker system next week. More snow solutions but less big totals.

It will be a fanale

What is the title of this thread?

Gefs is starting to stall and retrograde the mjo in 7...almost all the way back to a 6 look. That’s probably partly to blame for the degradation day 7-13. From a few days ago Latest 0z run

They know what they are getting

Fv3 is a weak strung out mess but would be a good hit if it was slightly more amplified.

Lol we are all over the place. Your right but that was the point I was trying to make. The changes that started showing up 48 hours ago this weekend have degraded next week. Not having that bombing cutter Saturday then the failure of the Sunday wave to amplify the last 24 hours mean less suppressive flow and more se ridge next week. A couple days ago I said to bob that we might be robbing Peter to pay paul when the weekend threats showed up. It’s possible to get all to hit with perfect spacing but the loss of the cutter bomb opens the door to increased chance of total fail if the weekend misses.

Yea im firmly half way in between both here lol. Not even sure which way to root.

Lol we’re comparing apples and oranges. I was looking at the period before that leading up to the threat next week. Your looking at the degradation after that of the whole day 7-15 period. Your right about the western trough and trends there. I was being specific to the day 4-6 period and the threat mid next week.

All that and the 6z gfs just spit out it’s best look for next week in days. Lol

6z Gfs and fv3 say miss south/north

Even on the eps though the trough out west isn’t that diffeeent now from 3 days ago when the euro was spitting out snow solutions. I do thing the look to our north is hurting. The anomalies shifted further east, less blocking...opens the door for the se ridge to pump under/behind those features. The western ridge was there 2-3 days ago imo but the se ridge was being suppressed. Now it’s going to town and the suppression on top is lessened. After that day 8+ the western trough pulls back and becomes a problem that no Atlantic help can overcome. But for the threat next week day 7 I don’t see much difference with the epo and Pna.

I was looking at the gefs, I think you and Showme were looking at the eps. They both degraded but for different reasons. Gefs is actually east with the western trough compared to a couple days ago but it degraded the look up top. Eps kept the look up top but shifted the trough west. Both results =crap. ETS: talking specifically for the threat next week.

I didn’t really compare the eps runs. On the gefs it looks like the trough in the SW is about where it always was for next weeks threat. Comparing a couple days ago when it looked better what I notice is the confluence to our north and suppressive flow shifting northeast. That’s partly because all the systems are trending weaker and not lowering heights there as much.