psuhoffman

I haven't done any data digging yet. I’m way too busy and it’s too early. But there are other factors that can portend a “colder” Nina. QBO phase and whether the Nina is west/east based factor in. NAO is huge but it’s not predictable. If you get a colder variety Nina we usually do “ok”. At least some snow which for us is “ok”. Once in a while you combine a colder Nina type with a rare -NAO and you get 1996. There was another early 1900s Nina that while not as good was an example of lucking into a colder archetype Nina and a -NAO. Or we can get lucky with just a -NAO period like 2000 and score big in that window. But if you get a warm archetype Nina like 2008/2012 and no NAO help...then you get last year again. In summary can do well but it’s not the favored outcome. Doesn’t mean we don’t get lucky. But I doubt anyone’s feeling lucky right now.

It’s what we know about probabilities in a Nina. A couple decent years. A whole lot of crap. A few years about as bad at last year even. Then there is 1996 teasing and giving hope to weenies. Ill try to re-create it if I get the time (I lost the data when my hard drive crashed years ago) but I did a weekly Nina case study (took forever) and found that If you actually get a -NAO during a Nina your odds of snow are just as good as a -NAO in any other pattern. Recent history supports that. We only had 2 brief -NAO periods in 2017 and 2018 but both produced a frozen event. We only got 2 weeks or a -NAO in 2000 and we went on an epic tear. There are some examples of wasted -NAO in a nino but no more than examples in other enso conditions. The problem was 2 things. A -NAO is much less frequent in a Nina. The typical tropical forcing association with a Nina favors conditions disruptive to blocking. And our chances of snow in non NAO blocking go way down, even more so than normal. I found warning level snowfalls almost non existent in +NAO regimes during a Nina. So this winter turning out well pretty much comes down to needing NAO help. What could go wrong?!

This is a very difficult decision. I’m torn. I really miss teaching live. I want to get back. Imo virtual instruction is woefully inadequate. Primary and even secondary education is just as much about the social aspect as the curriculum. Most job specific training comes as an adult. Yes kids needs basic reading and writing but mostly they need to learn how to analyze the world and participate in productive conversations that produce and expand knowledge. You can’t do that in an online class. Not very well. I also have an issue with how some teacher unions are marketing their policy advocacy. “Dead kids” is bunk. More kids are likely to die from accidents and other infections ancillary to attending school than covid. The real threat is to the staff and the community. And there are signs covid could cause less lethal but still serious side effects in some kids. But all that is harder to fit in a sign then “dead kids”. That said I’m also not sure how feasible an open is. The odds of avoiding mass closing seen low. Covid is still around. We just had a student in summer school diagnosed. Luckily it’s an online program but it highlights the issue. Every time a student gets diagnosed groups and schools will get closed. I’m curious to see a district announce their mitigation strategy in the event a student gets diagnosed then a simulation run by a legitimate reputable source on how that would play out. I’ve not seen that yet mostly because schools are being guarded with clear strategies. They don’t want to be boxed in. But it makes it impossible to run accurate impact calculus without those details.

Cape: there are decadal trends within those even broader periods. From 1904 to 1940 the NAO was predominantly positive. It was more negative from 1940-1972. It’s been in another predominant positive phase since. Then within those decadal trends there are small scale variations. We are due for both a decadal and or a shorter duration winter phase change. However predicting the flip is impossible. And I’ve even read speculation the slightly more negative period in the late 90s through 2011 was the phase flip only the NAO is trending more positive overall. I don’t know if I buy that yet. A few more years of this and I probably would. Maestro: wrt the shorter term NAO drought...it’s bad but not quite to unheard of territory. First of all we have had some negative NAO periods fairly recently. January 2016 was actually a really favorable NAO and we were unlucky to only cash in once. Of course it was a jackpot so can’t really complain imo. March 2017 and 2018 both featured blocking that brought us frozen events. The NAO wasn’t actually awful in 2019...both the pac and atl were just “ok” but we had expected great so it felt like a letdown. Last year was just a train wreck. But the positive NAO periods have been so anomalously positive such to hide any negative periods in a seasonal or even sometimes monthly mean The other problem is parts of our area (DC/Balt) have been kinda unlucky, making a not so good period seem even worse. 2017 and 2018 actually could have been much better. Not saying they should have been good winters. They were Nina’s (weak though). But some Nina’s (especially east based) can be decent. Those winters featured decent patterns and bad luck with storms missing every which way and dc being a meso scale snow minimum. 2019 was a decent winter but “felt” worse due to expectations. Here is the problem (and I tried to warn about this and got some angry kick back) the large scale weather patterns don’t care about our feeling and perceptions OR our local bad luck. The fact that we missed a lot of chances in an otherwise decent pattern 2017-2019 and felt unsatisfied didn’t change the probabilities. We actually were due for a total due. The kind of winter where the whole east coast suffers. They happen every 7 years or so and there hadn’t been one in a while. Just because we got unlucky locally recently didn’t change that. It’s like if you strike out with your two best hitters in baseball. That is unlucky but it doesn’t mean the next guy who sucks is now more likely to get a hit. It just means you blew your best chance and your probably screwed. Sometimes we get lucky and a not so good pattern over achieves. You could argue we got a lot of that in 2014-2015. We just paid the piper!

It’s hard to be very positive about the pacific. We’ve been in a very Nina ish hostile background state even when the SSTs weren’t that bad across the pacific basin. There has been good discussion and speculation about the SST patterns near the maritime continent and correlated mjo impacts being a cause. But it’s hard to imagine an actual Nina would improve that. The Atlantic side is always the wildcard though. At some point the NAO will go negative again in winter. Anyone holding their breath died a long time ago though.

Sorry I just saw this. Wasn’t on much. Crazy week at work then took some family time over the weekend. I would be glad to help any way I can if it’s not too late. Just PM me

He certainly wasn’t but we were about 8-10 feet apart so I’m probably ok.

Had to run to the store because wife forgot the pineapple for the kabobs. Guy in front of me has a “I stand for the flag:respect” shirt and his mask is over his chin. I said “glad you respect the flag now could you respect everyone in this store and put the mask over your face”. He responds “Stfu asshole” to which I replied...so you resoect the flag but not peoples health or freedom of speech”. He asks “what’s your problem asshole”. I finished “I’m just pointing out your own values here, if that upsets you maybe you should examine your actions”. Altercation ended with a “FU”.

I’m not sold on anything at this range. A weak Nina seems favored though. What that means...typically not great but there is always 1996 during a solar min to hold onto hope. And it certainly wouldn’t mean as bad as last year. But my post was just pointing out things could get a lot worse before they get better. Sobering since most of us are about done with all this.

I have and yes. I’m just worried things are going to suck for a lot longer than we want to accept.

How miserable will it get if there is a major second wave (assuming we ever finish the 1st) in the fall/winter, the football season gets stopped, Thanksgiving then Christmas pretty much are ruined, and the long range guidance is correct and we get another non winter with no snow...because jokes aside all those events are probably odds on favorites to happen right now.

JB cancelled next winter also. Might need to skip to 2022

Thank you to all the well wishes. I am alright. I’ve had an intestinal condition my whole life that had complications and required a relatively minor procedure. Im doing very well now and mostly recovered.

I disappeared suddenly due to a health issue and minor surgery. I’m fine and back mostly lurking.

Well you are the expert

Yea. He liked them all. I think 6&9 were his favorites. He is 5 and if not for the current situation might have waited another year or two but what the hell. We got through all the movies in about a week and are now on the cartoon series Rebels. I think Last Jedi was a good movie as a stand alone movie but it also was the least Star Wars Star Wars movie and had issues as a middle chapter in the trilogy. I see both the critics and fans perspectives. I think Rise of Skywalker would be an awful stand alone movie but was a very good Star Wars movie. So I see why critics panned it (same reason they pan most action flicks) BUT I think with Star Wars fans it suffered from “I’m hurt about #8 so I’m gonna trash #9”. I love Rogue one, it might be the best of the post Lucas films imo.

I remember we talked before you saw the last one. Empire is by far the best and the other originals beat anything since but after viewing the last one again with my son on Disney+ still don’t get the hate. It might not be exactly how I would have done things but it’s entertaining enough if you just watch it as an action movie and don’t bring in the “how you wanted it to end” stuff. It’s not the hard to watch mess some of the prequels were imo.

Something happen over there?

My 5 year old took it upon himself to decorate for my soon to be 2 year olds birthday tomorrow.

@jonjon I’ll have to stop in next tine I’m up there.

Trolls=people who dont agree with you lol? I see you hit up the bait shop this morning.

It was mostly my fault. Instead of ignoring the trolls I got into a flame war with them and it made the thread mostly useless garbage.

and all this time I didn't realize i was arguing with the happiest person in the world!

How have you been doing? Hope everything is good. ...my wife went ahead and planted the tomatoes a few days ago when it was nice out...I warned her but she thought I was being silly. We are pretty much screwed up here...might be better off if we did get a coating of snow tomorrow evening to provide some cover and prevent a hard freeze penetrating the plants. Oh well...

Shhhh they don’t know it was me. That chair is earning its keep. Cant imagine anyone would give them a hard time. I hope it was just a clarification that yes it is ok.