psuhoffman

I agree...the biggest fail threat is that stj moisture feed gets directed to our NW.

Ok first of all those Kutchera maps will bust low where the banding sets up. Seen it every time. Where the heavy southwest to northeast band sets up the dynamic cooling and mixing will keep the column just cold enough for snow during the heaviest thump. The kuchera is seeing the marginal temps and going assuming mixing and going super low on ratios. Where that .5+ qpf area Wednesday morning sets up will get better ratios than that. That said the real problem with the euro is it misses DC area to the NW with the heavy band of precip. It has the same look as the other guidance but it’s aiming it into southern PA instead of at DC area. It’s even aimed a little north of where I want to see it for me. It’s north of all other guidance with that right now.

Red = harsh reality blue = blissful ignorance

Do you want the red pill or the blue pill?

Someone is going to get a good thump from this and be surprised by totals. There will be a 50 mile wide area west southwest to east northeast that easily gets warning criteria snow/ice. Around that can be some accumulation but rather disappointing compared to who ends up in that band. It’s way to soon to pin down. And don’t assume it’s nw if the city. That band ended up right over DC in late Feb 2007. (Not the v-day storm the one after). I’ve seen it aim into central VA before too. Yea climo favors the typical spots but I’ve seen it buck that trend in these setups before. Just have to wait and see where it ends up. Gfs is trending north though. I would say the max stripe likely ends up somewhere between EZF and southern PA. The goalposts are narrowing, and I think everyone in that boundary gets some snow but still too much time to pin down where the 5”+ “shock” zone is and the more mundane 1-4” area around that is.

We’re at a crossroads the next day or so wrt our chances for another snow after this week. The long range guidance all has a similar look. There seems to be some “likely” features ahead. The pac will improve. Hard for it not too with a -30 soi today and the mjo firmly in 8 headed for 1 with decent amplitude. The north pac ridge will be shifting east into an epo ridge. The pna will become less negative and looks neutral long range. But the se ridge is being caused by another factor and it’s not going away. So all that adds up to one key feature, high latitude ridging. It could be NAO/AO/EPO or a combo of the 3...but there has to be enough ridging over the top to suppress the TPV south enough to mute the SE ridge and get the boundary south of us. If that boundary gets south of us it’s a pattern we can work with. I do not buy that with an extreme soi drop the stj is about to go away. Add in the time of year. If you get cold around in March you get a super charged baroclinic zone along the boundary. None of that favors a prolonged dry pattern. There will be waves along the battle zone between cold and warm. If there isn’t enough ridging up top to suppress the TPV and the trough gets shunted over the SE ridge into Canada...well then we can start planning a big BBQ and what beer to bring! Analogs say it could go either way. March 1962 and 1993 show up day 8-11. But so does March 2002!

I like it with stewed tomatoes

What if it has hotdogs in it???

This is new...geps jumper on board blocking for the first time. Lol @C.A.P.E. I’m not overly enthused but if there is enough blocking to force that thermal boundary south it’s not a bad look. March tends to not favor dry if you have cold around to create baroclinocity along the boundaries.

Yea that area is not gonna work but there are still affordable towns if you go off 70 a bit. Up by steamboat has affordable neighborhoods if you just want something economical. Im moving there for the outdoor experience so having a big place is not necessary.

The biggest problem we have in politics right now is both “sides” decided the best way to win was to try to label the other side a pejorative. Liberalism nor conservatism is synonymous with good or bad. They are just different views on how to best structure society. Neither side is trying to destroy America. They just disagree on what better is. Both sides can be vulnerable to being manipulated by bad people with nefarious motives but neither philosophy is inherently good or bad. There are good and bad people on both sides. The irony imo is that since both sides have labeled each other evil and are so hostile towards each other they have both begun to tolerate and insulate “bad” people on their own side because they are “the lesser of two evils” politically. Instead of grouping people as good or bad based on how they treat others and their character we label them based on their political ideology. That’s not good for society or politics.

Sucks...slowed down onset time from 00z. So much for naming Seen this look before. The initial stream of stj moisture will turn from a northeast trajectory to more east as it hits the influence of the high. That will direct a plume into the cold east of the mountains. Where that happens gets the thump. North and south of there will get screwed relatively. Models are all over with where. Gfs and NAM are across central VA. Fv3 and cmc likes your area. Euro and icon likes my area. Won’t know exactly where that feature is going to be for a while yet.

Gefs has been correcting closer to 1 every day. Almost gets there today. Euro does progress through 1 to almost 2 by day 15.

Fv3 has been consistently developing a block around day 8 then going nuts with it by day 15.

@C.A.P.E. the last two runs the gefs trended back to blocking...only it did it starting around day 9 not 15. Eps is kind of close too but not quite enough ridge up top to drop the hammer the way the gefs does. Eps wasn’t bad. Cold day 10-15 but nothing amazing and a dry look. Some snow hits. But gefs goes nuts into the first week of March. I said get it inside day 10. If the eps makes a move that way tonight maybe it’s got a chance.

You probably know this...but I love the kids who are engaged. But I teach a tested area and they expect broad results (and even if i could I wouldn’t just pass everyone it’s unethical) and it’s getting harder and harder to produce the numbers they want. Most days my attendance is only about 50%. The students who participate in class and complete my assignments almost always pass the test. But that’s less than half my students and the kids who show up once a week or play video games on their phone everyday count too. Even coaching debate is becoming difficult. In the past we’ve won a city championship and a State championship as well as qualified for nationals 3 times. But the last couple years it’s getting hard to even field a team. Finding kids willing to research and practice and show up at tournaments is getting harder. It’s becoming more and more frustrating. I want to keep going for the kids who are awesome and need someone who hasn’t given up on them and cares about them but some of the crap is getting to me.

Carver Vo Tech High. The one in West Baltimore not the one in Towson.

Probably why I’m not as annoyed by the behavior in here!

Lol. Try teaching monetary policy to apathetic inner city teens. “So if the fed raises the discount rate what effect would that have on....hey get off your phone!”

He seems cranky

Sorry I’m not trying to refute what your saying just adding too it. The pattern right now is obviously +TNH. And there is a SE ridge correlation. But I’m bringing up issues I still want answers too that’s all. First is what’s the causality. TNH measured the jet pattern but what is the cause of that? Next is the fact it’s bucking norms. A -soi and mjo phase 8-1-2 favors a neutral to -TNH. So why is this one opposite? Then..even if you told me going in the TNH would be + I might not have necessarily bailed on snow since February 2003 was a VERY +TNH but the favorable enso muted the se ridge enough that we had 3 significant snow/ice events and no rain all month. That’s super rare. Same happened in 2015. Another analog. +TNH but the ridge got beaten down. Looking at some other examples it seems when the TNH is positive but the soi is negative and the mjo goes into phase 8-2 the SE ridge gets muted enough to be cold here. So why is that not happening now? The SE ridge is ape not muted at all. Everything you said is 100% true I just need more answers about those things before I can understand the full cause effect relationship here.

He said he is fine just annoyed and done with posting for a while.

He would have to call for 8-12 feet for me to expect a warning event using the typical roger snow to real snow method.

I think we are too quick to label things we don’t understand stochastic.

I didn’t say a thing about the Eagles. I expressed sympathy for your current situation. Your owner is a disaster. The Redskins have been one of the bottom 10 teams in regular season and playoff record the last 20 years. That’s just a fact. I feel bad for you. I know a lot of Redskins fans. It’s not even fun rooting against them anymore at some point it’s just sad.