psuhoffman

I find the FV3 an acceptable way to end this winter.

There are some characteristics regarding the depth of the warm anomalies and the current wind burst that COULD imply we get another nino next year. But we are WAY WAY WAY too far out to get into that yet. Even if we did get another nino... what type, central/east based, what strength? and both those answers matter a lot to our snowfall prospects which is what most care about here.

We need suppression so frankly too much is always a risk in the patterns we need to get snow. The exception is when we’re trying to get front end thumps from cutters of course. But the snow areal coverage in a storm isn’t that great...it only takes a bit more suppression to turn our snow into Richmond south snow. But it also only takes a bit less to turn it into Philly north snow. So it’s just a chance we have to take. Don’t get me wrong if the guidance starts converging on a miss south about day 7 (which is when they often begin to get a clue on track) that would be worrying. But right now it’s good to see some south misses to balance out the north ones. If you disregard the members with no storm (that’s possible too) there is an equal mix of north south and flush hits. I know you know this just don’t want to see 15 posts this morning worrying about another 1980 scenario...although March 1980 has been showing up from time to time in analogs. Lol

There were a handful of carrolina crushers in the members. I like seeing that at this range.

1984 had a couple storms and one absolute bomb late in the month but was mostly rain. 1965 was also had a monster storm around that date but was also more rain than the 93 one. There were two more minor snows the last week of March though. So some interesting dates mixed in there. I can see how that look “could” lead to a monster phased bomb. That crazy epo block is pressing down on the tpv displacing it south. The se ridge is resisting it shifting too Far East. If something dives down around the tpv and phases with the stj it could pull it all in and boom. Thing is that’s always a long shot. Getting the right setup happens every so often but getting it to all come together is way more rare. And even if it did quite a few similar monster phased bombs have been mostly rain. It’s more common to get them to phase bomb further north. The gulf thing was super rare. But there are enough interesting dates to say an amplified storm in the east is possible around that time period at least.

Is this a joke? No... I just now looked at the guidance from last night and today. Still agree with what I said after the NAO and AO looking fairly neutral to slightly negative day 5-10 they look to go very positive day 11-15. That likely is the beginning of the end for winter. But we get a monster dump of cold and a severely displaced tpv first so there is a pretty good 7-10 day window to work with for a storm before we likely warm up for good around March 10th.

I’ve been busy today and not really looked that much. Last I saw there were hints it would toward day 15 across guidance.

Not a bad match. The look early March will roll into a torch if the AO and NAO go positive. But we could have legit threats before that happens. There was a storm threat early March 2016 but it didnt work out. Ended up a weak system.

Yea people can give it whatever grade they want. The only time I get frustrated is with people like Mdecoy who are literally never satisfied no matter what. Im weird in what I want to feel it was a good winter. I either like a nice stretch of snowcover, like 10 days, and it doesn’t have to be a ton of snow just a solid cold with snow on the ground period. (and up here that isn’t that uncommon it’s like a 50/50 thing). Or one big blockbuster event. I love big storms so even if the rest of the year was a dud I’m happy if I got a big storm. I was happy with last year because of the March storm. I’ve actually been happy with about 75% of my winters since moving here. This is a weird one where by the numbers it isn’t that bad but it just leaves me uninspired how I got to those numbers. But I’ve had a 10”+ storm 4 of the last 5 years in March. Make that 5/6 and this year vaults up into satisfying territory. I didn’t expect a year like 1996, 2003, 2010, 2014... those were all close to 100” winters here. But I was kind of rooting for a solid above climo year...something like 2015 in the 45-60” range. That would be comparable to a 20-35” winter in the DC/Baltimore area.

Could you zoom in a little more so we don’t have to see your neighbors yards!

Sure but I really don’t think we’re done yet. Might even have multiple events left go.

Not sure how to grade this winter here. It hasn’t been awful by the numbers although I am still a healthy bit short of climo. There have been a good number of snow events but most have kind of felt underwhelming. A lot of fringe and low to low end moderate events. A nickel and dime winter here for sure and that’s just not my thing. The only exception to that would be a winter like 93 and 94 up here which (other than the Superstorm) were nickel and dime lots of 3-6” events but so cold that both built up snowpack and had long stretches with snowcover. That would be awesome. But a bunch of 3-5” events that melt before the next one kind of feels a little deflating. I know some would love to get a bunch of 3-4” snowstorms and if they think I’m ridiculous I don’t blame them. Just saying how I feel. I think if I can get one more storm that tops the November 15 storm as my biggest of the year then this year jumps up to a C+ or B but if I don’t get anything else significant and that November storm ends up by only significant snowstorm of the year then it’s a D or C- If I don’t get anymore snow this year it would finish 8th out of 13 years. Not awful but given high expectations a let down for sure. This could all change with one 10”+ storm in March though!!!

Yea makes me aporeciate 1994, 2007, and that March storm in 2017 more. Only 3 times I’ve seen significant sleet pile up.

Looks like it. Seems the dryslot blasted in way ahead of schedule. What you end up with?

Yea nothing saw that dryslot blasting across MD around noon like that. Just about all guidance had the heaviest precip here and northeast MD between 12-3. It’s not that we got it early it’s just the band literally fell apart due to some kind of dry air intrusion to the north of the convective band to our south. My snow accumulation was about where it should have been at 12:30 but I was supposed to get another 2-4” sn/pl between 12:30-3 or so. Not a disaster. 4” isn’t bad. It’s a low bust though when forecast was 6-8”. I kind of thought that was a little high though. My expectation was more 5-7. Still fell slightly short. Ok I haven’t looked at the long range since yesterday...time to dig in and figure out where the 16” I still need to get to climo is coming from!!!

Some of us north of Baltimore weren’t going to change over for a while yet so the dryslot killed a few hours of snow/sleet potential up here. If I was down there I would be thrilled with a dryslot about now. So it’s a matter of perspective based on location.

That it? Around 4”. It was awesome for a couple hours under that band. Didn’t expect it to fall apart so fast up here though. Thought we would be in heavy precip until 3-4pm. Oh well. Not bad.

Snow just started in the northern hinterlands. 27/16

+pna and a polar vortex over Quebec = warm to you???

12z was perfect. 18z was suppressed. 0z north. Take the average!!!

Careful you might get NPZ excited bringing up March 1960 lol

It looks good for a threat day 8 and 13 ish. It even develops a decent ridge bridge then breaks it down but why trust was it dies day 15 anyways. I love that significant improvement are happening inside day 10 all of a sudden.

Eps has some hits around day 8-9 then hits another period day 12-15

RIC: 1.5” DCA: 2.7” BWI: 3.9” IAD: 4.9” 1.18