psuhoffman

Cape: there are decadal trends within those even broader periods. From 1904 to 1940 the NAO was predominantly positive. It was more negative from 1940-1972. It’s been in another predominant positive phase since. Then within those decadal trends there are small scale variations. We are due for both a decadal and or a shorter duration winter phase change. However predicting the flip is impossible. And I’ve even read speculation the slightly more negative period in the late 90s through 2011 was the phase flip only the NAO is trending more positive overall. I don’t know if I buy that yet. A few more years of this and I probably would. Maestro: wrt the shorter term NAO drought...it’s bad but not quite to unheard of territory. First of all we have had some negative NAO periods fairly recently. January 2016 was actually a really favorable NAO and we were unlucky to only cash in once. Of course it was a jackpot so can’t really complain imo. March 2017 and 2018 both featured blocking that brought us frozen events. The NAO wasn’t actually awful in 2019...both the pac and atl were just “ok” but we had expected great so it felt like a letdown. Last year was just a train wreck. But the positive NAO periods have been so anomalously positive such to hide any negative periods in a seasonal or even sometimes monthly mean The other problem is parts of our area (DC/Balt) have been kinda unlucky, making a not so good period seem even worse. 2017 and 2018 actually could have been much better. Not saying they should have been good winters. They were Nina’s (weak though). But some Nina’s (especially east based) can be decent. Those winters featured decent patterns and bad luck with storms missing every which way and dc being a meso scale snow minimum. 2019 was a decent winter but “felt” worse due to expectations. Here is the problem (and I tried to warn about this and got some angry kick back) the large scale weather patterns don’t care about our feeling and perceptions OR our local bad luck. The fact that we missed a lot of chances in an otherwise decent pattern 2017-2019 and felt unsatisfied didn’t change the probabilities. We actually were due for a total due. The kind of winter where the whole east coast suffers. They happen every 7 years or so and there hadn’t been one in a while. Just because we got unlucky locally recently didn’t change that. It’s like if you strike out with your two best hitters in baseball. That is unlucky but it doesn’t mean the next guy who sucks is now more likely to get a hit. It just means you blew your best chance and your probably screwed. Sometimes we get lucky and a not so good pattern over achieves. You could argue we got a lot of that in 2014-2015. We just paid the piper!

It’s hard to be very positive about the pacific. We’ve been in a very Nina ish hostile background state even when the SSTs weren’t that bad across the pacific basin. There has been good discussion and speculation about the SST patterns near the maritime continent and correlated mjo impacts being a cause. But it’s hard to imagine an actual Nina would improve that. The Atlantic side is always the wildcard though. At some point the NAO will go negative again in winter. Anyone holding their breath died a long time ago though.

Sorry I just saw this. Wasn’t on much. Crazy week at work then took some family time over the weekend. I would be glad to help any way I can if it’s not too late. Just PM me

He certainly wasn’t but we were about 8-10 feet apart so I’m probably ok.

Had to run to the store because wife forgot the pineapple for the kabobs. Guy in front of me has a “I stand for the flag:respect” shirt and his mask is over his chin. I said “glad you respect the flag now could you respect everyone in this store and put the mask over your face”. He responds “Stfu asshole” to which I replied...so you resoect the flag but not peoples health or freedom of speech”. He asks “what’s your problem asshole”. I finished “I’m just pointing out your own values here, if that upsets you maybe you should examine your actions”. Altercation ended with a “FU”.

I’m not sold on anything at this range. A weak Nina seems favored though. What that means...typically not great but there is always 1996 during a solar min to hold onto hope. And it certainly wouldn’t mean as bad as last year. But my post was just pointing out things could get a lot worse before they get better. Sobering since most of us are about done with all this.

I have and yes. I’m just worried things are going to suck for a lot longer than we want to accept.

How miserable will it get if there is a major second wave (assuming we ever finish the 1st) in the fall/winter, the football season gets stopped, Thanksgiving then Christmas pretty much are ruined, and the long range guidance is correct and we get another non winter with no snow...because jokes aside all those events are probably odds on favorites to happen right now.

JB cancelled next winter also. Might need to skip to 2022

Is 2020 over yet?

That is heart wrenching. And it drives me crazy that so many can’t empathize with that. Someday we will have to reckon with the sins of our past that perpetuates generation after generation if we ever wish to move towards a future without this unhealthy wound tearing at our society. But imo our failure extends even beyond bigotry (although that is our greatest challenge). For a Christian nation we don’t treat each other the way we should. We don’t take care of each other. We don’t show compassion and empathy for others. We don’t see the needs of others and think “how can we help”. We are tribalistic and egocentric and too many people are more worried about protecting their position than trying to make the world a better place.

I took my son there last week. There is a place near the northern end where Clipper Mill Rd crosses. A parking area with a trail to the water. There are also a couple places where Beckleysville Rd crosses the middle. We had more luck there. Overall we like Codorus near Hanover PA best. Sucks I’m 10 minutes away but have to pay out of State license fee because I’m 1 mile across the border but it’s the best/easiest accessible spot for the kids. I haven’t yet found a spot in MD close by the Kids like as much. There is a little community pond down the road on 30 we go sometimes if we just have an hour in the evening.

He is 5. He has a practicality to him. When our Disney trip in April got canceled he was disappointed but said “but I don’t want to get sick so ok”. Last year he saw a flood video on the news and said those people needs boats now and then we need to build them new houses but on top of something so that don’t happen again”. Recently he said he can’t really understand racism because he doesn’t understand why anyone would be mean to people because of how they look. He also constantly asks me difficult questions that are way over his weight. Sometimes I’m not sure how to answer. We aren’t totally sure how old Lily was, she was rescued. But around 11/12. Old but not that old. But she had a liver condition her whole life and it finally gave out. This morning my 2 year old almost made me cry when she crawled into Lily’s bed by the window like she often did to cuddle her and was saying lily and whimpering.

My son had a really bad day but he took it like a champ. His cat died, he got an ear infection and found out he can’t go in the pool for 2 weeks and then his favorite character in Star Wars rebels died. He said to me “you shouldn’t have let me watch that tonight”. Lol. He asked how to say goodbye in cat language at the vet then when we were burying Lilly said “I will miss you I hope we see you when we dead someday”. At bed time he simply said “today sucked can we never do that again” then asked me to stay with him until he is asleep because he is kinda sad. I was proud of how he handled everything. I don’t think I would have been as mature as he was. RIP Lilly

Still waiting for that low to move northeast out of WV through NC without jumping. #geography #salty

But what’s the barometric pressure in Pittsburgh ?

Pretty good hail here. Also the storm had some rotation. Wind switched direction pretty suddenly during the storm right as the hail set in. Nothing too crazy gust wise. Maybe 40-50mph.

Shouldn’t you be trolling someone on Twitter

I’ve been in a coma for 6 months. What did I miss?

Thank you to all the well wishes. I am alright. I’ve had an intestinal condition my whole life that had complications and required a relatively minor procedure. Im doing very well now and mostly recovered.

I disappeared suddenly due to a health issue and minor surgery. I’m fine and back mostly lurking.

Well you are the expert

Yea. He liked them all. I think 6&9 were his favorites. He is 5 and if not for the current situation might have waited another year or two but what the hell. We got through all the movies in about a week and are now on the cartoon series Rebels. I think Last Jedi was a good movie as a stand alone movie but it also was the least Star Wars Star Wars movie and had issues as a middle chapter in the trilogy. I see both the critics and fans perspectives. I think Rise of Skywalker would be an awful stand alone movie but was a very good Star Wars movie. So I see why critics panned it (same reason they pan most action flicks) BUT I think with Star Wars fans it suffered from “I’m hurt about #8 so I’m gonna trash #9”. I love Rogue one, it might be the best of the post Lucas films imo.

I remember we talked before you saw the last one. Empire is by far the best and the other originals beat anything since but after viewing the last one again with my son on Disney+ still don’t get the hate. It might not be exactly how I would have done things but it’s entertaining enough if you just watch it as an action movie and don’t bring in the “how you wanted it to end” stuff. It’s not the hard to watch mess some of the prequels were imo.

Something happen over there?