psuhoffman

Those indexes often miss the picture. They are like poor man cheat sheets but cannot replace reading the actual longwave pattern. I don’t know what the indexes say for 3-5 days from now but this looks mighty good to me. Monster epo ridge. 50/50 vortex. West based NAO blocking. Severely fractured and displaced TPV. Trough east of Hawaii to help pump some ridging in the southwest. Way more hostile looks than that have led to snow in the past. Maybe it’s not the most ideal textbook perfect hecs look ever but it’s decent. If you are referring to the indexes in 10 days as the threat happens then that is irrelevant. Big storms often happen once the blocking that set them up breaks down. Without that look day 3-5 we wouldn’t get the whole chain of events that leads to the day 10 threat. But that look is only 3 dats away now and across all guidance. Could the gfs be right and storm one cuts then everything behind it gets suppressed, sure. Could it amp up too much and rain yea. Or maybe we get snow. It’s not a super high probability but no day 10 threat is but if you can’t see the reasons the next 13 days or so might yield snow in the mid Atlantic from that day 3-5 look then you don’t know how to actually analyze a pattern and are misusing indexes. Or you are trolling.

Forget that it was a deb message, anyone has the right to make the case it won’t snow, but he did it in the least substantive way possible.

This was either a joke or a top 10 garbage post of the year. Sometimes I don’t get sarcasm on here so I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt that this was supposed to be funny.

For a time yes, but if that monster upper cut off kept tracking east it could have ended well. March with the crazy amplifications and cut off lows is the one time when wrap around back side snow actually works out more often.

It’s the same threat though. But the euro has been amplifying the trough more and more which would slow the progression some. That’s not a bad thing. Annoying but not bad. The key to getting a strong storm there is to get something on the tail of the trough stretched out to our north to drop in and phase. The gfs just elongates the trough and slides everything across to our north and suppressed. The euro fv3 and ggem all favor digging the northern stream and have a favorable look for a storm imo. As for the euro op. That storm was about to go thermal nuclear. Fully phased monster bomb. It’s hard to tell exactly how far west the rain snow line would get. That storm was going to pull due north as it bombs but at some point the upper energy would catch up and it would take on some east component. Whether it gets to 95 or the blue ridge and then what happens with any wrap around depends on the final track of the h5 low. But this is silly. That was the most amplified of every run and every ensemble. Worrying about a 30-50 mile placement of the rain snow line day 10 is a waste of time. I totally get the curiosity and wanting to debate it and wishing we could see what that bomb would have done and most aren’t really worried about it but for anyone who is seriously worried about those details on a day 10 op all I can say is good luck surviving the next week with your sanity intact.

I might have to retreat and regroup but I never surrender.

FTR ive not punted anything. If the southern feature is dominant the March 1-2 could work but it’s complicated and we suck at complicated. After that still has potential, it’s plenty far out for guidance to adjust especially given it’s a volitile time of year with shorter wavelengths. But the trends the last 24 hours leave me less than inspired.

Well it looks like this will bring the cold but will it give the snow to NC lol?

I liked seeing “some” south hits at long range but the gefs is VERY suppressed. Pretty much universal agreement targeting the Carolinas or just squashing the storm completely. I would love the look if I was in NC. We need some changes.

@C.A.P.E.we talked yesterday about how the western dig of the tpv was killing the March 1-2 threat but helping after. What I’m more disappointed is the absolute shred factory setting up behind whatever that first wave ends up doing. We normally score as the cold relaxes not presses. Our best window would be the 4-8th. But guidance has moved away from anything in the northern stream digging and phaseing and instead just slides the northern stream to the north and acts as a shred factory to anything under it.

Don’t even have to look. Given that’s a “mean” at day 10-11 there have to be some absolute monsters in there to get that look.

The blocking is there when we need it. Most big storms come after the block breaks down. But this look day 5 and 7 sets off the chain reaction that leads to that day 10 look.

Haven’t looked at the snow output yet, actually working today and sneaking in some weathering when I can..but with that h5 I just posted I knew it had to have some “wins” in the members. That’s a crazy amplified look for day 11!

@C.A.P.E. @Ji there have to be some good solutions with this mean! Talk about the big dig we’ve been looking for. Monster epo block that extends all the way across day 5-7 leads to this amplification into the east.

I can envision a win within that mean.

I’m not saying I like this progression better. I’m kind of indifferent. I like the idea of a big storm at this point. But this is a risky way to go as you say.

Well it’s kind of a balance here. The trend towards the tpv diving further southwest will kill that March 1-2 threat. That will cause ridging ahead of it. But it will create a better threat around March 4-6 period if something phases. I think overall we have increased our chances of a big big storm but decreased our chances for just getting some snow. This is more a boom or bust setup. People can that however you want.

Did you see how close it is to an absolute monster.... look what could happen if that energy diving into the Midwest phases the tpv trending west and south means we are losing any chance at the March 1-2 storm. That trend will cause ridging in front of the TPV digging into the plains and cause a cutter. Could get some snow from a front runner but that’s probably mostly a cutter. But that opens the door for a big storm after it if something can dig into the trough and phase. Euro might be about to pull it off when it ends day 10.

No way to sugarcoat this though. The gefs has gone hard core cutter for that initial wave March 2. This vs 48 hours ago. digging the pv further west is creating an opening for that to cut.

Of course all the hecs solutions showing up are March 1980 hahah 12z gfs still spits out 1958, 1960 and 1993. BUT the key is from day 8 those years the tpv in the upper Midwest interacted with a stj wave and dug in and phased. Most guidance right now lifts the tpv and just slides it by to our north without much interaction. That’s not good. But it would only take a minor adjustment to change that.

Visuals look where the pv is on the gefs now vs 72 hours ago. 72 hours ago New run If that continues to trend south maybe it can phase with the stj vs squash it. But it’s increasing the chance of a total fail if it just slides by just to our north and doesn’t interact at all with the stj.

The pv continues to trend southwest on ensembles around March 2-4. Right now it’s still not enough to do is good but it’s getting close to the point where if it trends and further south we might be looking at the chance for it to phase into a southern stream system and bomb something. It’s worty keeping an eye on. Unfortunately that look if the pv drops but doesn’t fully phase into anything could just leas to suppression of the stj waves.

Gfs bombs that miller b so much it suppressed everything behind it. That’s probably the fail option here fwiw. We have a 7 day window with 3 waves imo. The first though is a tricky setup with a stj and northern stream wave. The worst case scenario is if that bombs but does so in a way that fails for us but the suppressive flow behind such a bomb squashes the waves around March 4th and 6th behind it. Not saying that’s the most likely scenario. Way too early for me to tell. But that’s the most likely way we fail if we manage no snow from all 3 threats.

Fv3 is an excruciating miss to the south. Crushes southern VA. Threats still very much there on guidance though. Back to work.

Ggem likes the second wave, nice hit