psuhoffman

I agree. Im skeptical the better pattern is even real though. We will see.

Something can always beat the odds but the pattern is awful. Raging +AO. AK vortex. Progressive mid latitude flow. Nothing looks right for a snowstorm. Flukes happen but I’m more interested in hopefully getting a real pattern change than chasing day 9 Hail Mary prayer scenarios.

Count me with Ji in the "not at all comforted to see a suppressed solution" in the long range. We could definitely see something suppressed. We did a few times this year, often so suppressed that nothing ended up happening or it was a rain event for NC that would have been snow up here. So I am not saying I expect it to actually snow a lot in the south...but in this type of progressive pattern the most likely outcomes are either cutter or weak suppressed wave. We are in the least likely in between zone. The prospects of a pattern change towards the end of February have way more interest to me than anything else.

That is so that the storm that will turn up the coast day 11 will be rain

2 misses to the south day 7-10 LOL

1964, 1996, 2005 all showed up in the analogs and all featured some snow in our area in late February. 1976 is actually the best analog in the group because it matches this seasons overall crap pattern very well also, and that year had one big snowstorm in our area in March. I think it was 8" in Baltimore and 12" out here.

I will continue the positive vibes by pointing out the day 8 and 11 h5 analogs today contain quite a few February periods that lead to snowfall here either in Late Feb or March.

At the range we are looking at all i care about is seeing the idea of the jet cutting under the ridging in Canada progressing forward in time. If we do end up getting that look...especially in late Feb and March that is a decent pattern and we would have some threats to track. Then we would need to just get lucky with the specifics. So far that idea is moving closer in time and the mjo progression kind of supports. No rug pull yet. But it is still outside the credible range for another few days. All we can do is watch and hope no signs of collapse show up. This is likely our last shot to get a meaningful better look this season before it really is too late to do us much good. At least for most in this region.

yea I am more interested in the longwave pattern change on guidance than any specific threat ATT

well yea...because with such a positive AO and progressive flow... to get cold in here we are likely in the suppressive flow behind a wave and that would act to discourage a STJ wave from ejecting. Once the next wave does come...the return flow ahead of it is likely to warm us up long before it arrives. We need a change in the longwave pattern to offer resistance to the natural attempt at ridging ahead of any healthy wave. Guidance is hinting maybe we get that change in the long range though.

Not me... I would take another snowfall even if its in April and melts an hour after it stops. I begrudge no one for rooting for warm...but warmer weather is going to come fairly soon regardless of the pattern. Even if its a "cold" spring on a sunny day in later March or Early April its going to feel pretty nice out anyways most days. Next winter is a long ways away and nothing is guaranteed to anyone.

Great write up... just a few thoughts to add. March is the best time to get an NAO to overcome a crap pacific. With the shorter wavelengths and propensity for cut off blocked up flow, we have seen plenty of -NAO -PNA patterns work out. One was just 2 years ago in 2018. I believe our most epic March period every , 1960, was such a period also. Not saying we want a crap pacific...but if we are going to try to overcome a bad pac with some NAO help March is the time to do it. On top of that, getting any help in the epo area is dependent on the nao imo. This is purely statistical based analysis but there were almost no examples of the pattern we have been stuck in improving purely from the pacific side. Almost all the cases where things flipped better later in winter were initiated by PV attacks on the NAO side. Some of those then did lead to an improved look on the pacific side once the TPV took a hit from the Atlantic first, but I found no examples where the pac look we have been in transitioned to a really good -EPO look on its own with no help from the atlantic in conjunction. So seeing some attempts at an Atlantic side tpv assault for the first time in a long time is encouraging. This would be the time... very late February and March was when everyone has been saying there would be a more legitimate opportunity to break down this pattern. It fits the historical profile of these types of seasons. When this pattern persisted all of January into February...there were a fair number of years where it broke down into March and produced one late winter storm. Not all of them went that way though so I am still skeptical but I am more receptive to the chances of this pattern change than the last few mirages.

It’s waaaaaay too far out to be worried about anything specific. It likely won’t look anything like that by the time it’s close.

I like arguing with him but for the sanity of the board I’ll stop.

Fringed

Some big mangled wet flakes mixed in here

Planetary waves (Rossby waves) break when they gain enough amplitude that their potential vorticity gradient is overturned. This leads to mixing of their pv. When it happens in a favorable way it can aid in the transport of heat into the HL and weaken or displace the tpv.

Yea that’s why I said it looks ok not good. Lol. But we absolutely need to get some changes up top to have any chance. And analogs suggest the pac is a lost cause. We need some NAO help. The fact the eps went that way was more good than bad regardless of the western dump.

At least it’s doing it in a different way. Several times this year it’s attempted a change up top initiated from the Pac side. But all those analogs I looked at a while ago said if we ever get a better pattern it was more likely to be from wave breaking on the Atlantic side. A few times the guidance teased us with an epo ridge and I was always skeptical because that’s not usually how this pac pattern evolves. The eps is teasing us with changes on the Atlantic side for the first time in a long time. Doesn’t mean it will happen but it’s at least different. Anything different is good.

Eps actually looks ok day 10-15

Yea by far the greatest chance of seeing snow fall in our area is around Davis WV. They have by far the highest mean snowfall plus a LOT of it comes from small upslope events.

Its cold because there is no precip. If there was a storm the return flow ahead of any strong wave would likely mean we warm up given the lack of anything in the flow to offer resistance.

I would LOVE to live somewhere out west for the lifestyle...but I would likely miss the chase of the big coastal storms. Snow in the intermountain west is different, mostly dependent on the wind trajectory and upslope. Radar is mostly useless. You don't really get to "track" the big wound up storms the same way. For me the perfect compromise of both getting those big east coast bomb type storms plus more consistent snow and the mountain lifestyle would probably be somewhere like New Hampshire.

When the only time you can get cold air is right behind a wave and there is no blocking to resist any return flow ahead of the next wave that is the favored result yes.