psuhoffman

Fluffy Flakes sounds like a delicious breakfast cereal

That would help but there is a strong correlation between the unfavorable RNA pac pattern and a +AO so I think there is some connection beteeen the 2. There are some examples of a -AO with this pac but it’s very rare and most of those examples were during the extreme blocking regime that dominated between 1956-1972. Outside that period almost every example of this pac pattern featured a very +AO also.

Not to this level. There are some examples of weakly +AO regimes with a -NAO but it’s nearly impossible to get a -NAO with this strong a PV/AO for the same reason you can’t get a favorable epo in this regime. The tightening strengthened flow around such a strong PV won’t allow ridging to survive long if at all in the NAO or epo domains. The strong flow around the PV will obliterate attempts to ridge there. But also the fact that strong ridging in the NAO domain would likely knock down the AO value some.

Very true...also this level of +AO (record setting) is impossible to overcome on a larger seasonal scale (other than a fluke event) because to get this strong a AO it’s very unlikely we get the epo ridge needed. A strong east based epo ridge naturally reduces the AO value some because it enchroaches in that domain some. Plus this strong a PV will strengthen the zonal winds around it blunting attempts at any ridging either in the epo or NAO domain. So while we can sometimes overcome a +AO in a year like 2015 with a monster epo it’s probably not possible to overcome this level of consistently 3+ stdv AO.

I mean I guess it's all perspective....if we make a map where the only criteria is "saw measurable snow/didn't see measurable snow" we were all winners!

That happens sometimes in our total crap fail years... years with a base state bad for snow isn't that unusual...but even within those years to get a total absolute fail takes some bad luck, and often areas all around will have at least some snow. Even in the absolute worst years it is still winter and there will be some fluke opportunities, a trailing wave on a front, a transient PNA ridge. To get a total fail you have to have a bad pattern...but then also get unlucky and miss on the few fluke opportunities that do come along.

We have fail threads now!!!!

I doubt 53 would run a fake name. He is up front with his stuff. I can respect that. He only changed back from Tenman with permission. Mersky on the other hand I am 99% sure is a past member with some axe to grind.

This is perspective and not right/wrong. I don’t consider 40s that cold. Of course I was just skiing with a temperature of -10 and honestly that didn’t feel that bad when the sun was out so I might be a bit if a freak. I’ll admit that. But my bigger point was even the marginally “chilly” periods you can get in April are not going to last. 2018 had 2 cold shots but both were in and out in 3 days with 60s-70s bookending both 3 day periods. 2007 had one true cold snap (about as cold as it can get in April) but it was only 5 days and bookended with 50s/60s. So even in a worst case scenario coldest April possible we will still end up with more 60+ days than below 50 days and it won’t even be close. Cold just can’t hold that late. So yes we could suffer a 3-5 day “chilly” period if we get a monster -NAO but a few days in the 40s in a month dominated by 60s overall is not going to really bother me at all. But that’s just me. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion on this. Rainy days are the exception btw. A rainy day can be miserable in April but does it really matter if it’s 48 and raining or 58 and raining? Either way I’m not spending much time outside. But again that’s just my opinion.

I like arguing with him but for the sanity of the board I’ll stop.

Some big mangled wet flakes mixed in here

Yea by far the greatest chance of seeing snow fall in our area is around Davis WV. They have by far the highest mean snowfall plus a LOT of it comes from small upslope events.

I would LOVE to live somewhere out west for the lifestyle...but I would likely miss the chase of the big coastal storms. Snow in the intermountain west is different, mostly dependent on the wind trajectory and upslope. Radar is mostly useless. You don't really get to "track" the big wound up storms the same way. For me the perfect compromise of both getting those big east coast bomb type storms plus more consistent snow and the mountain lifestyle would probably be somewhere like New Hampshire.

Problem is he acts like every year is a dud. The last 2, for example, were pretty typical run of the mill normal mid Atlantic snowfall winters. 2018 had a screw zone in western VA and 2019 had one in northeast MD but overall for the entire region it was near median to a little better than median snowfall over the two years. Not good but definitely not a bad 2 year period by our standards. Yet he acted like the last 2 years were awful. This year has been awful. The last 2 years were just typical normal mid Atlantic snowfall winters.

This season is awful but it’s not record breaking. We’ve had other years with almost no snow before.

I am. Stuck at airports all day.

Your problem is you complain EVERY year so when we actually get a truly awful horrible year like this one, no one wants to hear it because you acted like every year was this bad.

@Bob Chill JH was amazing. It dumped snow all day Sat and tapered off right as lifts closed. They ended up with about 45” on the week. Saturday was crowded for the powder day. Didn’t bother with the tram until the end of the day when the line got under an hour. But the new Teton lift barely had a line and there is some epic terrain there. Stuff that used to be hike too. It was snowing too hard to get any good pictures or videos. Sunday the crowds were gone and it was sunny. Beautiful day. Cold enough the snow stayed soft. It was tracked out but perfect soft bumps all over the natural terrain. Groomers were perfect to bomb down. This is some of the new terrain off Teton North Hoback had perfect soft bumps the whole way down At the end of the day I drove up into Teton NP to get some shots at sunset. A surprise 7” of snow fell Sunday night through Monday. Since it wasn’t expected the mountain was empty and it was one of my best days ever. I found some powder stashed in the woods under Sublette chair. I have some good video from Monday on my GoPro. I’ll link it once I get it edited.

I know how you feel...it’s why I did this. But I agree on NH. If I move someday that’s where we have in mind. In other news got some face shots on the last run. Found a stash in the Moran Face woods of the new Teton lift that was still untouched.

Made it into JH last night around 12:30. Drive from Idaho falls was longer because Teton pass was closed for avalanche control. Done a few runs through Saratoga bowl. Chest deep. They’ve had about 40” so far the last 3 days and it’s absolutely dumping right now. 2”/hr easy. It’s supposed to end late tonight then be sunny the next few days.

Luckily everything was on time and made it.

@Bob Chill Jackson Hole was definitely the right choice. 25" so far...looks like its absolutely dumping on cam right now...4-8" more expected today...with a lull tonight that I hope to use to get into town...then one last wave with 3-6" more expected tomorrow. Most importantly the temperatures stay cold enough to preserve the powder....highs staying below freezing even at the base through Monday. Aspen did OK like you said they would...about 8" so far with maybe another 3-6 BUT they will be in the mid to upper 40's over the weekend and so the lower half is likely to get pretty crusty... Like you said the northern mountains in CO did much better but frankly I have skied the crap out of most of them and wasn't really interested in another trip there.

@mappy just saw what happened...so sorry I hope she is ok

I am going to be REALLY REALLY pissed off if my flight tomorrow at 5pm out of BWI gets delayed or cancelled because of wind. Even a delay would be catastrophic since my connector flight only has 35 mins in between.