psuhoffman

Much more amplified wave Monday... looks like its going to completely kill the following wave. There is an obvious trend towards a more amplified wave Monday and less Wednesday across all guidance. The euro just upped the ante on the Monday wave though.

Euro = next

is he doing it on purpose as some kind of parody or is he actually that much of a weenie?

Agree! We should bombard them with this demand...

LOL I am fairly optimistic we will see some snow out of this whole pattern. I am more iffy on if any of them can become the "big dog" we (you and me) really want at this point. But I am not saying it won't happen. My fail scenarios work so often because our climo sucks, and the models have a tendency to over forecast snow for our area in general. I don't know why...and its not as bad as some make it with perception bias and cherry picking the runs that show a ton of snow and forgetting all the runs that showed no snow... but still in general MOST threats will fail or at least fail to live up to the "hope" for a big storm. There is a "win" scenario too. But I am a little torn right now about how this is trending. The weekend cutter is trending weaker which is opening the door to the Sunday/Monday wave. That is trending better across guidance and that wave has some upside and I would not kick a 4-8" storm out of bed or anything... but there is a cap on that imo. The isnt really much amplification associated with it in the northern stream and there is no ridging out west and its just unlikely that wave becomes a big storm. And the problem is the more that wave amplifies there is a corresponding degradation of the threat around the 6th and that one was the bigger potential with a PNA ridge out west and the northern stream digging in. That could become a big storm, but its likely to get squashed if the wave Monday amplifies. I just don't see enough space right now for both. People can take that for what it is worth, the trends with the Sunday/Monday storm right now are good. This is not meant to be a deb post. That is trending towards being a pretty good storm in our area. But it might cost us the shot at a big dog later next week. Some would gladly make that trade...others would not. And in the end for me it depends how much snow the Sunday/Monday storm ends up. If I can get 6" plus out of it...I would give up the shot at a big storm later. But if I get another 3-4" fringe event while south of me gets more and then the next storm gets squashed because of it....that would be a pretty crappy way to end the season imo.

I could post the ggem and say looks great, especially for those of us in MD and Baltimore north. This thread will be garbage if everyone cherry picks and posts maps showing snow in their yard with comments like “looks good especially here” with no objective analysis or value added.

We all know where you live... you can stop now.

I am NOT predicting that fail scenario just saying that would be the most likely way we fail that's all. I am indifferent right now. There is a LOT of potential. I could even see back to back hits in this setup. I could also see back to back fails. There are multiple waves in a fast flow with tight spacing and the exact result of each will affect the one behind it and there is no way anyone will be able to nail the exact details from this range on each. There certainly is potential though for one or maybe even more hits from this look.

lol our fail scenario in MD is clear...strong enough cutter Saturday so the Monday storm misses just south but amplifies enough to delay the development of the storm Wednesday which gets going late and hooks back in to crush New England. Snow to the south of us, snow to the north of us...stuck in the middle with bare ground.

You just put the words in your own mouth.... the very last storm trended dryer, A LOT DRYER, than guidance from 2-3 days out. The consensus across guidance at about 72 hours out was 1.25-1.75 qpf across the area. That trended down as we got closer but even from 24 hours out the consensus was still 1-1.5 qpf. The final numbers were DCA: .73 BWI: .74 IAD: .95 It was dryer than expected. And when people try to point that out you, for some reason, are arguing with that or dismissing it when its a fact. I have no interest in fighting over a chance at 1-2" of snow. But facts are facts... the very last storm we had trended dryer than expected. I am NOT saying that has absolutely any bearing on our chances for snow in the future just defending facts.

this is not a wow either way... its a 1-3" MAYBE slightly more if it maxes out kind of thing, very weak wave, not that much amplification, so the difference between the guidance is only between 2" and nothing.... that isn't that big a deal. It's not like some are showing 6" and some nothing. It's a very marginal borderline situation and so a slight difference matters between some snow and nada but I don't consider either option a wow. The people in the northeastern 1/3 of this forum could say the same thing to you. You are evaluating the "pattern" of this winter based solely on the results at your specific location and then getting pissy with people who point out they have not had those same results. You are using meso scale results to make broad general statements about the pattern. There were like 2 posts pointing out the euro was bad at 6z and then the thread went off the rails when people started arguing over whether there has been a wet bias on the guidance this year and the problem is both sides are saying something true OF THEIR REGIONS ONLY!!!! The DC area has been the epicenter of +snowfall anomalies this winter on the whole east coast. And in general snowfall events have trended wet there...but for anyone from Baltimore northeast that is NOT TRUE. There has been a crazy sharp northern cutoff on a lot of these storms and up here we have tended to be dryer then guidance on a lot of them. Why this turned into some pissy argument is beyond me. I am frustrated by my own results but I don't have any issues with the DC area and I am genuinely happy for you and don't want to take away any of your snow...I just wish I was sharing in the "win" this year that is all. And last winter was the exact opposite with my area reaching median snowfall while places in NW VA were having an absolutely awful winter...and I was very sympathetic and understood why they were so negative and upset with the winter. I did take issue with people like MDECOY who was having (like me) a pretty good snowfall winter and was still debbing like it was awwful and acting like a bigger baby than the people in VA who had a legit reason to be acting that way. I totally understand the view of both sides... If I had 50" right now (which is about where I would be if I was having the same year you are wrt climo) I would probably be in a pretty good mood about it and hearing all the debbing and whining from people in less fortunate locations would get annoying. So I get it. At the same time I am in the area that is not having a very good year...(could change with one big hit) and so I sympathize with the people who are frustrated that just about every storm has jacked just to our south and left us fringed for the most part. Its frustrating...for both sides. the storm was not wetter than guidance suggested, it was dryer. You can keep saying it was wet but that is not backed up by facts. Just about our entire region ended up below the qpf forecast. The northern half significantly so but even down by DCA it busted low on qpf. THIS IS SILLY!!!!!! The last storm was dryer then projected. A lot of other ones were wetter...around DC. Dryer Baltimore north. It is what it is. We are in a new pattern, during a time of year when often we get different results than the prominent winter pattern due to changing wavelengths and seasons, and so I am not sure applying seasonal trends really matters as much now anyways.

Im going to end tye year royally pissed if that Monday storm amps up just enough to fringe us but enough to suppress the Tuesday/Wednesday storm. I’m a little worried about the spacing between those 2. The second one has more upside with the better upper level setup but if the first wave amps more it might squash it.

Not our year

With mjo going high amplitude through 1-2-3 in the next 15 days my guess is guidance is rushing the breakdown and warm up. I don’t think the cold lasts to April but sometime around the 15th to 20th is more likely than the quick collapse around the 8-10th that was being shown.

I’m worried the red line might disrupt cold air advection.

Epo usually patterns NAO but I prefer pna

It lost that day 39 April 1 blizzard on the control run. And I already had my bunker stashed with supplies and toilet paper.

?? April looks like a shutout pattern

The collective gets ya every time

Euro weeklies look like crap

@frd this look with a ridge bridge across the top has lead to some pretty good snow periods in the past...

I don't know exactly how many other times but in 1960 BWI recorded 10.5" March 2-4th, 5.9" March 9-10th, and 5.1" on March 16th.

She can take this blocking and sit on it... And in case she argues....but by next week the blocking is gone...yea but that is typical. Look at 1996...and NO I AM NOT COMPARING THESE 2 STORMS...this is just a general pattern example NOT a storm comp. This is the look for about a week before that storm You can clearly see the blocking that helped to set that threat up...note also the blocking is centered in the EPO region into north central Canada...sort of similar to this block. By the day before the storm look up top. The blocking has broken down and is long gone by the time that storm actually happened. But there are lower heights to our northeast...created by that blocking, and that is actually what is important. The blocking up top is just a means to an end...the end that we want is to force the northern stream to dig into the CONUS and to get lower heights (50/50) low to our northeast to help to hold cold into the northeast. Once we get that and set up the threat the blocking breaking down isn't that big a deal. A lot of our storms come AFTER the blocking breaks. This isn't just a pet peeve with her, I am tired of the bad analysis going around on twitter all the time. Our big snowstorms are actually most correlated AFTER -nao pulses NOT during them.

Not sure the euro op is keying on the "right" system. The upper level support is actually better later....by developing that weird miller b type wave day 8 it sort of ruins the chances for the major amplification day 9-10. That period may not be done evolving.