psuhoffman

Gefs snowfall isn’t too high because it shotguns storms all over the east day 10-14 BUT there are more misses south than north. I like seeing that on gefs at this range.

I think that’s exactly it. A moderate to strong modoki places strong forcing where we want it just east of the dateline. And it’s likely to win the battle for dominant control. Weak modoki have great variance. 1978 and 2015 were very good winters. And 1969 and 2005 certainly had periods with typical modoki nino characteristics. But there were some total crap years with almost no nino pacific response and because of variability all except 1978 failed to reach full potential. Even 78 would rank low among the moderate/strong list.

It’s March. If it’s not at least 30” might as well not bother. Sun angle and all

Destroyed

FV3 only gives me 15” this run. Pass.

I’m trying...

I've always wanted payback for the March 2001 disaster They owe you!!!

What’s funny is the euro control had a 48 hour snowstorm also.

I’ll have to make a new legend

Agree but what happens day 5-7 actually is what sets the chain reaction that leads to a threat later.

Terrible. Default 3 inches Your funny sometimes. It was an improvement over the last run and you weren’t complaining about that one. Also...it has nothing day 1-9. Pretty much all 3” is from that threat day 11. That’s a much bigger signal than 3” speeds out over 15 days from a couple fluke hits on several low probability threats. There were about 15 members that miss us to the south. That’s another good sign. It was about as much of a signal as you will see day 11 for a storm on the EPS. It did pretty much lose any signal for snow before that though.

What could go wrong

I don’t know. 58 and 66 were close. Both featured some extreme mid Atlantic storms and a flip to colder after mid January.

You weren’t kidding. That day 10 screams “incoming”.

Maybe done wrt exceeding climo but I think New England probably does well in March given the look coming up.

That is the one the gefs is the most interested in. There are a “few” hits with the day 8/9 and 14/15 waves but it really likes the day 11/12 period. Fwiw.

@frd regarding enso, this will be part of my end of year retrospective but since you were talking about a possible nino next year thought I would throw it out there. What we really want is a moderate/strong modoki/central based Nino. Anything else really doesn't do it for us. I went through and filtered out all the nino years by modoki/traditional and strength (and I used the older traditional modoki classification where if the nino originated in the central PAC and propagated east before regressing westward it was modoki regardless if it took on basin wide characteristics for a time as most do). Here are the findings and snowfall for BWI Weak Modoki years using January: 1959, 1969, 1978, 1980, 1995, 2005, 2015. Average snowfall 18.05" Moderate/strong Modoki years: 1958, 1964, 1966, 1987, 1992, 2003, 2010. Average snowfall 43.14. The only one that wasn't a historic winter was 1992 and most agree the eruption of Pinatubo significantly changed the patterns that year. Weak Traditional nino: 1952, 1954, 1970, 1977, 2007: avg snowfall 15.86" Moderate: 1988 yea only one year lol, don't know what to make of that. Snowfall 20.4" Strong: 1973, 1983, 1998, 2016: avg 18.78" but with an obvious trend...2 of those years had one HECS and the other 2 did not and we got almost no snow in those. But the bottom line is the only type of nino that is actually good for us and raises our average snowfall above climo is a moderate/strong modoki. Keep that in mind going forward. Regarding this year...looks like this modoki weak fell into line with what I SHOULD have been expecting. Weak modoki tend to be variable but none were blockbusters...a few were duds, but many of them were basically what this year has been...meh.

GEFS has 3 waves to watch around March 2nd, 5th, and 8th. All 3 look to track under us along the gulf coast and turn up.

GEFS really dropped the hammer this run with cold.

The h5 for those months I mentioned above...there are some similarities

Bob made a good point in the other thread we should remember...the pattern is favorable for storms early March, but having the blocking centered in the EPO domain and extending east vs in the NAO domain extending west...means the flow will be more progressive across the CONUS and there will be more variability wrt any storm track near the east coast. So this is not the kind of pattern where storms are likely to lock in on guidance at long leads. That doesn't mean we can't win here...we have had snowy March's from a similar EPO based blocking pattern in 1960, 1965, 1978, 1984, 1993, 1996, 2014, and 2015. There were even a few blockbuster storms in there in 1960 and 1993 and we just missed a HECS that fringed us to the south in 1980 which was another close pattern match. It's a pretty good pattern to get snow in March BUT not one we will likely be able to get a really good read on any specific threat at long range.

Since I am in that area west of you...me too!

He is a grand planetary blowhard

Or as Yoder would say, its decent.