psuhoffman

@frd good news is that the few big snows we have had in non -NAO Nina years came in March. So the Nina pattern might leave the door open to an early March storm. 1976, 1999, 2009, 2017 all had March storms after mostly uneventful years.

18z gefs brings back the epic look lol

Be careful for what you wish for when wishing for a pna Oh i would much rather a -NAO late winter but we get what we get.

Hrpderps looks really thumpy!

They may have been weighing the gfs/fv3 Heavily. Rgem and icon were south too. They don’t make those maps just off the NAM and euro.

Maybe I’m looking at it wrong. I only see about 2-4” across most of our area before it flips to sleet. I don’t really see any big thumpy snow totals until up in central PA. Looks like BAD ice though. Some people are into that.

Given the trends across guidance the last 24 hours I’m worried our chances of a heavy thump snow are slipping away and it’s becoming more of a messy icy mix threat.

Unfortunately it’s VERY dry too

Eps is very cold day 11-15.

Gfs did shift north “some”. Euro ticked south “some at 6z. Perhaps were seeing convergence on that compromise.

Thanks. Do you or @dtk know of any future plans to improve the short range high resolution guidance? The sref was a great idea (a short range high res ensemble could be useful) but the members just suck and have extreme biases.

The rgem looked good at 48 imo. It seemed in the “south” camp with the initial fronto banding. This!!!! Being in between two major model camps (gfs/rgem v euro NAM) isn’t a bad place to be as usually some kind of compromise ends up reality.

There is some potential in early March. Some interesting pattern analogs. 1962 still the top. March 93 shows up. Then some years with snow that just missed being much bigger. March 84. March 80. March 96. March 59. Enough snow centered near the long range analogs to think we’re not necessarily done yet. I don’t like our prospects once past March 10. The way it’s evolving once the current mjo wave progresses out of favorable phases and the pac (which gets favorable soon with a monster epo ridge and even some pna help at times) relaxes the trough likely pulls up and the whole conus torches the last half of March. But if we can score one good snowstorm before that who cares.

Icon been the weenie model of the week with this storm. Very consistent. Either going to earn some cred or be re-relegated to the JV squad with the jma, navgem, and sref.

I agree. We are still in the game for a nice thump to ice though. And if that banding gets directed over us and can keep the climb mixed near 32 long enough 6-8” isn’t out of the question. But yea had the NAO not failed again this was the hecs setup. -soi induces stj aimed at a cold high. Knock down that SE ridge do the upper levels could amplify into the east and...oh well wasn’t to be. But this could still end up a pretty cool event if it stops trending north lol.

Trees can come down you know. I’ve already lost one nice pine tree from the last storm.

That’s because it shifts the heaviest banding north of you by 10am. Once you lose rates to mix the column the warm layers can take over. South of that heavy fronto band will be mostly a sleety mixy crud. The significant snow accumulations will come in that band. Once it pushes north it’s over. You know this. You’ve seen this over and over. The runs that keep you snow until 1pm have that band over you into the afternoon.

Nice lift in the DGZ too

Could be. It’s close. Look st 850s at 18z. Yea there is a warm later somewhere above that but you can clearly see the cooling from that heavy band. but I don’t like the NAM/euro aiming that best banding into PA. History in these setups says south of that band often gets disappointing results.

NAM is better than 6z but not as good as 0z. It did shift south some. Does still target north but now as bad as 6z. ETA: ehh it started out better but ended up about the same as 6z. Maybe even a little worse in some places. Talking about 12k NAM.

Looks better but sometimes extrapolation is a dangerous game. I’m rooting for this to target right at MD. That would get DC up to me both into the best band on the south and north side. Most of us would win. Not to hate on the south of DC folks but the only way they win is if I lose so...I’m just not that nice a guy.

NAM looks like a better consolidated moisture plume with a better trajectory so far.

I think the CAD is a lock. It’s trending better across guidance. That’s no shock. The DC Balt region should hold snow until midday sometime and stay ice into the evening. The question becomes qpf during those periods. How thumpy is the thump in the morning and how much qpf as ice in the afternoon. Getting in that heavier band doesn’t just mean more qpf it means higher ratios as typically that heavy banding both cools the column better and is associated with better lift to get better DSG

Yea some but mostly noise. Euro has targeted either along the md pa line or southern pa for several consecutive runs. Minor shifts within that general zone.

Sref fwiw...not much. It did trend south some