psuhoffman

wrt snow climo... if you account for the curvature of the map and line up our general latitude, then account for elevation and bodies of water...you can see that mean snowfall runs mostly parallel to the latitude. Obviously you have to account for the influence of the Pacific and Atlantic and the Rockies and Apps. Plus when I say we are too far south...and people counter with Philly or NYC...they are just as much if not more east than north. If we were NORTH at NYC latitude we would be in central PA NOT NYC. It isnt fair to put us right on the Atlantic Ocean at sea level and then say "see its not that much more snow".

I agree with your sentiments wrt our snowfall climo. I think we remember the times other places get hit and we dont...but tend to forget the times we get snow and they do not...(it does happen) and times we both get screwed together. There is some bias there. But... comparing IAD to Philly isnt really a fair comp though. PHL is at 36' right on the Delaware rive in the coastal plainr. IAD is at 313' west of the fall line. DCA is a better regional comp to PHL. You have to account for elevation and water. A better comp to IAD in the philly area is West Chester which averages 26.5". So there is a bit more difference between DC/PHL/NYC than you are making it seem when you use IAD as a comp to urban locations at sea level in those other two cities. But it's also not as great as some like Mdecoy make it seem.

I agree with this. Some seem to be rooting for progression of the pac ridge...and that would be "better" but almost anything is better. It still wouldn't be a very snowy look unless it were to severely shift and a trough build in the central pac. That is asking a lot, and not much historical support for that drastic a pac pattern flip during one season. Plus...looking at some examples that worked with an epo ridge it took other factors to line up, and even that isnt all that common. 2014 we had a cooperative AO most of the winter. 2015 we got lucky with a displaced TPV in Quebec that suppressed the flow. Without that it wouldn't have worked. 90% of the time an epo ridge with a +NAM state is a good pattern to our NW and mostly a frustrating one here. The last example was the first week of Feb 2017. It looked epic from long range and then turned into cold rain and waves to our north all week. The better way to go if we want legit snow threats is to retrograde the pac ridge with some blocking over the top. Luckily the ensembles, which I trust more than the CFS, are hinting at that direction. That is where I am putting my chips.

Take this for what it’s worth, but history suggests we want regression not progression. First among the years with a period of similar pac ridge +AO regimes it’s very hard to find any that improved dramatically from progression of the pac absent AO or NAO help. There are a scattering of comps that lead to better patterns though from a NAM state flip causing retrogression of the PAC pattern. Get the pac ridge west a little so it stops digging the trough out west as sharp and pumping the eastern ridge. Then with blocking that’s how you can get a broad flat full conus trough. That leads to a wave pattern we can win with. ETA: it’s ok if the pac ridge is building over the top in the epo domain. But it needs to back off in the mid latitudes out of the area just west of the pna domain.

If you look at a snowfall map of the CONUS there is a pretty obvious north south based variance to snowfall. The exception is where elevation and bodies of water influence the distribution. In our local meso climate both exert influence. Because of the warm waters along the coast and the fact we have mountains in our western zones it skews the snowfall gradient SW to NE locally. We also advantage from a dip south in snowfall east of the Apps due to CAD and increased moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic. So if you are looking at a meso scale level yes going west within our region helps almost as much as going north. But on a broader scale north is much more important. If you live on the west coast going East helps. I was referencing the broader issue not the meso scale one. Wrt NYC their long term avg is closer to 28”. They had a couple of historically bad decades that skewed their means lower for a while but since it’s been increasing again. 28 v 20 is a fairly significant difference. Plus keep in mind NYC is right on the coast. You go west into North Jersey and get off the waterfront and averages get into the mid 30s quick. Go a little north of NYC and you hit 40! Results between DC/Balt and NYC/Bos are skewed some because they are right on the coast and we are inland. A more accurate comp between their latitude and ours would be to compare NYC to Atlantic City or Cape May!

Not going to do them much good. By the time they build up their base the torch will come and obliterate it. Its likely going to be a very rough year for them. By the time we get consistent cold (if we do) its likely too late for them to recover. They might have a good second half but losing the front 1/2 of winter is a killer for them. And in years where it’s crappy early often people turn to other things or go out west and it impacts them later too. Just realistically it’s going to be a bad year for them. It happens. They are used to it. The resorts that do a good job managing their Capitol will survive so long as we don’t get multiple years like that strung together.

This is an oversimplification but as the heat released from the convective waves expand away from the equator (poleward) it is deflected to the right of its path by the coriolis effect. So basically... vs the cold phase convection locations the exact effect of the mjo wave phases change seasonally as the wavelengths and resistance to the heat release changes. But in winter that is the basic effect.

I do a lot better than DC. And I’m not complaining. But I’m not far enough north that I’m not susceptible to snow droughts also. But when it’s good it can get really good. And when the pattern is marginal it can be pretty good here. But the total fail suck fest patters aren’t much better here either. I’m not the frozen tundra or anything.

Draw a line west of the mountains and that’s about how much...and you wouldby like it. You would sacrifice a few small storms from west to east clippers for big totals where CAD saves us from a flip. Our best storms that track south of us have enough easterly wind component that the downslope isn’t an issue. It’s when we’re stuck in a pattern with lows going to our west that it sucks but that pattern wouldn’t be that good anyways.

I work in Baltimore. So I’m well aware. I often see it go from snowcover to nothing once I get into the city. From experience I don’t expect there to ever be much at work.

The climo thing is old. I get frustrated when we go stretches without snow and I get more of it so I don’t blame anyone for the frustration. So simply saying it has sucked is fine. When I go off on someone like Mdecoy or whatever he is going by now, it’s not for being frustrated, it’s for making up BS climo proclamations. It’s ok to feel like it sucks. But it’s not ok to pretend this isn’t normal. Truth is our climo sucks. Every once in a while we get lucky with a year or most recent a string of them when snow comes easy. The other 75% of the time is long stretches of nothingness with an occasional fluke storm or two mixed in if we’re lucky. Our base state is suck. We’re just far enough north that in a rare good pattern where the jet gets suppressed near our longitude we can get into the goods. The rest of the time we’re frustratingly too far south. Close enough to feel screwed when the storms go just north of us.

I thought it was a bad run.

How much did Baltimore city get March 21 2018?

It doesn’t look good but there are ways out. Those years were mostly Nina’s. If the NAM state flips the last week of Jan the mean pattern may look more like the non Nina analogs I posted. The new weeklies are a better look in Feb. not great. But they won’t be right exactly. If they are wrong and the trough is a bit more suppressed with a bit more ridging over the top it becomes a good look. If it’s the other way...not so much. Flip the coin.

Off hour run. Toss it. ...it is ugly though. Undoes all the improvement as goes right back to a neverending shutout look. But like I’ve said the gefs is more prove to run to run shifts. Unless it has multiple runs or the eps heads that way I’m not sweating it.

Like it matters he just tossed out a 12” storm as “barely counting”. Lol

I counted jan 2019....the rest are out of season and I dont remember dec 2017 I think it was Dec 9 2017. I had 6” up here. The cities only had 2” or so but I know not far NW had 3-5”. I think IAD had 4. Maybe it missed lees burg.

We've had one snowstorm since 2016 blizzard....what are you going to smite? Dec 2017, March 2018, Nov 2018, Jan 2019 And here come the reasons they all don’t count lol.

I actually liked him and corresponded with him semi regularly through emails when I was a meteorology student at Penn State in the late 90's and early 2000's. He was always friendly and helpful with my questions and seemed like a really nice guy. He also seemed to really know his stuff. I still think he knows his stuff...I just think he has an agenda. The last time I messaged him we got into a spat about my local climo and his forecast. He was trying to use Washington's snow average to say my area verified his forecast. And then he refused to believe me that I averaged 40" here. And when I pointed out that DC didnt get what DC averages he got snippy. That was the last private conversation I ever tried to have with him. I will admit he has also said some dumb things about teachers that didn't sit well with me but mostly its just his act got old after a while, and he went off the deep end with everything.

Both the EPS and GEFS have been moving the extent of the pac ridge further north and that is a significant change also. The more it builds over the top the more it helps attack the TPV over the pole and helps press down on the flow over the CONUS. When we were seeing unanimous support for an incredibly anomalous flat central pac ridge north of Hawaii that was really bad. This look not nearly as much. Still not good yet...but not the utter dumpster fire it was.

This is closer to workable than where it was 2 days ago. get that Scandinavia ridge to poke into the NAO domain a little more and it sets off the chain reaction we need. It’s still got a ways to go but we’re seeing progress. I can see an easy way out from that look. The one the other day when the euro spilled a whole blue paint can all over the high latitudes was hard to even see an easy way out. Seeing it back away from a continuation of the raging +NAM state is the best sign.

Definitely. What I am most encouraged about is where that might go. The look day 10-15 is still not really great for snow...but that look matches patterns that rolled forward lead to snowier times. Not there quite yet but build that ridging over the top just a little more and suddenly the western energy starts to slide across under us and its game time again.

In fairness to JB (you all know I can't stand him but truth is truth) he admits he was wrong quite a bit. He will spin so that it's "not his fault" with stuff like "I had this or that right but..." but the bigger issue is he is stubborn as all get out and will wait way way way too long to adjust. He is so scared to "flip flop" that he holds onto an outdated idea way too long. There are no points for that... a forecast should always be based on the preponderance of best evidence available. We have to adjust when better evidence, and in weather more recent is almost always better than older guidance/data. As for seasonally.. he will spin a crap look into "not that bad" to try to keep the weenies paying for another month or two...then admit defeat once its well into Feb and apparent his cold/snowy winter idea is toast.

in fairness he admitted his excitement is mostly due to lack of anything else to be excited about

lol I have no change in my forecast until I actually see what falls and then I will adjust/spin accordingly. Until then keep paying your subscription.