psuhoffman

Actually thinking THIS weekend. It looks like most of the Rockies are getting dumped this week. With so many going Pres week I thought the weekend before shouldn’t be as bad. I haven’t been to Jackson in many years and when I went I was recovering from an injury and took it easy. Never made it into some of the better terrain. I love the trees at Aspen and Snowmass too though. Both look to get a lot of snow but Jackson stays colder. Aspen might warm up some next weekend and lead to crud. Jackson looks to stay north of the front. But I’ve heard the last couple years crowds have become crazy there.

@Bob Chill have you heard anything wrt if Jackson Hole has really become as bad as some people say with lift lines? I am deciding between there or Aspen as my final choices and kind of want to hit up Jackson but there has been chatter from locals that’s the crowds are insane since the Icon pass started. But I know sometimes they exaggerate to keep people away. I don’t mind some lines but definitely don’t need to waste my one ski trip this year waiting in 45 min + lift lines. Have you heard anything from friends our west? Thanks. ETA: anyone else with knowledge please chime in

EPS continues to advertise a workable look mid month including a much better AO presentation. I’ll get interested beyond a casual glance each run once it gets inside day 10.

32* snowing

There are pop up blockers yes.

The traffic is getting out of control along 70. I almost missed an 8:45 pm flight out of Denver when I left Vail at 3pm because it took over 4 hours to get to Denver. Took an hour to get to Breck from Frisco a few years ago over spring break. I shy away from that area anymore, rather drive a bit up front to avoid that crap during my vacation time. I used to ski Vail a lot. Blue Sky at Vail is awesome but it’s so hard to get to it. Takes forever to get through the crowds as the base then 3-4 lifts to get back there. It keeps getting worse everytime. Don’t even bother with Copper on a busy weekend. Waited an hour to get on the 6pack lift. Steamboat or further away and has great tree skiing but it can take forever to get out of the base because there aren’t enough ways up the mountain. That’s why I’m leaving Aspen this year. Aspen Snowmass never seem to get too crowded. I guess the extra 2 hour drive keeps people away. They get less snow but that only matters early season. Once there is a 5’+ base you don’t really notice the difference between an 8” and 12” storm in terms of skiing. Still considering SLC but it’s harder to get a last minute flight at a reasonable rate. I’ve noticed I can still find a Friday night $300 flight into Denver even until Wed but by then it’s like 700+ to get into SLC. I could book further in advance but then I risk so many things going wrong. Weather turns and I spend all that money to ski crud, or either myself or someone else in the family gets sick. Don’t want to leave my wife alone to deal with a sick kid or if she is sick. I’d rather wait until the last minute to reduce the risk of all that.

Now we know why things trended wrong then

Ive been to CO about 20 times. Have family in Denver and go skiing there a lot. I agree with everything Bob said. If you do decide on Vail, I often stay in Avon which is 15 minutes up 70 from Vail and has some nice hotels for much less. Beaver Creek resort is also right there. Are you going to ski/board?

Yup....heading out there soon. Maybe next weekend. Might try Aspen this time.

Feb 2003, Dec 2013, Feb/mar 2014 all bore some resemblance.

Station said it was up to 35 after a few mins of sun before I left a while ago. It was hanging out at 32-33 all morning. And sometimes I see a 5 degree difference between here and the valley.

Mjo today backed away from a high amp run through phase 4/5/6. We can maybe survive a low amp wave into warm phases so perhaps that supports the better looks today.

Gefs “caves” to EPS mid February. Shocking. Good news yes. That look is not a shutout one. But color me skeptical until we get it inside day 10. Yes it’s ok. And it’s a slight adjustment from good. But it’s also only a slight “seasonal” adjustment away from shutout again.

I’m still hanging out around 32 here.

Yea but I suck at seasonal or super long range “forecasts”. And frankly I can’t stand it. But in way too many years that’s the only game in town. But I would much rather be analyzing medium range to determine the exact track of a system or if it’s going to phase or short range plots of moisture convergence and lift to determine who gets a death band. (It’s me). I like to think I am ok at that stuff. This day 15 crap is like a tarot card reading from a drunk psychic. I can analyze the pattern the guidance is showing, and guess based on seasonal trends and climo how it might trend...but honestly it’s mostly me just applying statistical analysis from the past. I don’t have any real insight on what’s going to happen in 2-3 weeks. Yea the statistics on this type of seasonal pattern say we end up with a total clunker 80% of the time. But what about the other 20? I have no way of knowing this won’t be one of those 20%. I’m just playing the odds. Hopefully the odds are wrong this time.

Ehh it’s inevitable. Every post I make gets misused or twisted out of context by some assclown at some point. I’m done wasting time wording posts to avoid the tools who will misinterpret it and go off on a tangent of stupid. Life’s too short. 90% of everyone here knows the points I’m trying to make. The other 10% can bite me.

Lol. What people don’t get is not only was that week unlikely to produce a superstorm from a statistical POV, it was unlikely to even produce any snow. 90% of the time a full latitude pole to tropics Ridge west trough east alignment is a cold dry look for a few days. The only reason that storm came up was the fact it was a triple phased monster bomb. Any regular wave gets squashed in that look. There were only a few storms ever in that configuration and all of them were phased systems. The other recent one was Feb 1995. It developed later than 93 and wasn’t a triple phase just a typical phase but it did develop fast and was a dynamic system. I had thunder snow in Herndon VA with that storm. It put down about a foot in only a few hours in the Philly area. It bombed too late to crush our area but the point is the type of rare dynamic storm it takes to overcome the suppressive flow of that setup.

The eps kinda reminds me of Feb 93 at the end. I wouldn’t mind that repeat. You probably would. It was a constant train of storms from Feb 15 on but none were clean snow. Even up here there was a lot of mix but they each put down about 4-6” of snow/ice up here and about 1-3” towards the cities. (kind of like that early Feb overrunning wave last year just 5 of them in a row). Btw a repeat of that does not mean a repeat of March 93. That storm was an extreme anomaly for that pattern. It’s why I laugh when people pull out that analog. 99% of the time with that h5 look nothing happens. But if we were to get a repeat of the Feb pattern and adjust it 50 miles south....we would all be happy.

There aren’t many examples. The best examples of a March save in Baltimore are 1896 when only 4” fell before March then 13.8” in March. 1931 only 3.4 then 10” in March. 1942 only 4” then a 22” snow on March 30th There are more examples of years where there was little snow before mid Feb then a lot after. And since mid Feb is still far enough out it’s plausible we get a snow that week these are still mathematical possible comps 1914 nothing before Feb 13 then 23” after 1924 2” before Feb 2/19 then 10.2/11.6/9.4 in Feb/mar/apr 1937 2.8 before 2/16 then 22.8 after 1960 1.8 until Feb 13 then 32” after 1993 also had very little until mid feb then several small events and then March 93

I have a dusting of snow on my lawn from last night. I’ll call that a win.

Eps says seasonal after next weekend It’s better. Of course when our avg high is 45 seasonal often isn’t good enough.

Can you be fringed by a fringe?

If we can get some banding to develop up here we might have an outside chance.

@losetoa6 I realized the way I worded that post could have come off as an insult towards you and I did not mean it that way. I was actually thinking of someone I know who I’ve engaged on this subject who at times is like talking to a brick wall. I was thinking that and not about how I worded the post. My comments were not directed at you in any way. Im sorry if that wasn’t clear.