psuhoffman

Get that crap outta here. Snow in the south in March is an abomination.

Like the look on the 12z GEFS. Something to watch...the EPO blocking has been shifting east and bleeding over into the western NAO domain lately...if that trend continues it would be good for our snow chances.

Are you being serious? Sometimes I can't tell The best threat period I am watching is around day 10-12. That would be 2-3 days AFTER day 8 and the day 8 analogs say that look day 8 lead to several big snowstorms a few days later. It doesn't mean anything is a lock, not every look like that has to lead to something... but the analogs indicate that if the GFS is right about that day 8 pattern there is a legit threat for a storm from that.

yea I get it lol... Just to point out how good a run it actually was... the day 8 500 mb analogs for the 12z GFS just came out #1 is centered 2 days before the March 1960 HECS #3 is centered 3 days before the March 1962 HECS #4 is centered 3 days before the March 1958 HECS that's not a bad signal

I actually thought it was a good run for what I wanted to see... the general setup is still there but it suppresses both waves day 10 and 12. That is kind of what I want the GFS to do at that range.

Ggem looks good but when doesn’t it.

Gfs and fv3 both suppressed with the two waves during our best window day 9-13. I don’t mind that right now.

it mostly miller b's around us. not much precip in our area.

Purcelville and Ashburn recorded 8 and 9" so Leesburg must have done ok. There seemed to be some kind of band on the NW fringe that got NW VA pretty good with lesser amounts north and south before the real jack area down by Richmond. But I am sure he would still be debbing if he ONLY got 8" while VA Beach got 2 feet.

That storm was a little further south than I thought... northern fringe looked like the PA line... with a couple inches right near the PA/MD line BWI: 4.7" DCA: 4.8 IAD: 6.4 EZF: 9.,1" CHO 9.2" Richmond: 13" Norfolk: 19" Elizabeth City NC: 25" The jack was along the VA/NC border close to the coast. So maybe we need that adjusted north 200 miles

Top day 11 analog is March 1 1980. If we could repeat that but shifted north 100 miles we would be very happy. I think DC got 6” on the northern fringe but the big snow was central and southern VA.

Some additional interesting dates have started to pop up looking at some of the overnight runs of the GFS. March 1958 shows up off the 6z GFS run. 1993 and 1960 are still there also.

FWIW the euro killed the GEFS and GEPS regarding the MJO progression. It is now spiked into 8 and heading towards Phase 1 soon. The SOI continues negative at -19 today and it looks like one more severe negative spike coming the next 5 days. By about day 7 it looks like it may start to trend positive again and flip back positive after day 10. That doesn't concern me though as the damage is done, and by the time the impact of that would reach us it would be mid March. For the record I do not think this winter lingers into April like last year. The way all the guidance is progressing the pattern once the EPO ridge breaks down some and the trough lifts we probably do torch, but I think the guidance may be rushing that some. I think we flip warm around March 15-20 or so. That would fit the SOI flip back positive in 7-10 days and the MJO progressing to phase 4 around mid March. Regarding some of the post mortem discussions right now about this winter. There is a lot of chatter about the TNH and the warm waters east of Australia regarding the failure of this winter to fully take on nino characteristics. I see both arguments...but wrt to TNH it is simply a measure of the jet pattern NOT a cause of it. And since the TNH is typically negative in a nino its kind of just another way to measure the failure of the nino not a predictive tool to do better next time. The warm water east of Australia probably did have an impact wrt the tropical forcing in that region and the interference it produced. But again, not sure that would help us next time because looking back at the sst guidance in the fall and most of them failed to pick up on that until very late. So we probably wouldn't have seen that problem coming. My take away, looking at all the weak modoki years...is that a LOT of them failed to fully take on classic modoki patterns. Most of the typical modoki years we think of were moderate/strong. The bottom line is that weak modoki nino's have a tendence to be bullied around by OTHER influences. Out of 7 weak modoiki years ONLY 1978 fully took on the classic look for a majority of the winter. 2015 got it done but in a somewhat unusual way for a modoki nino. 6/7 weak modoki had a significant period of winter that lacked the classic look and some of them never attained that look and were total fails like 1959 and 1995. This year isn't on that level just didn't live up to the "hype" of the better modoki years. However, those years were pretty much in the moderate to strong category. I definitely won't fall victim to high expectations from a modoki next time UNLESS its a moderate to strong with a predicted ONI peaking over ~1.2. Weak ones are variable but typically not blockbuster years. And frankly...out of the 10 east based nino's since 1950 NONE have been a blockbuster winter. They range from total crap to average, and the 2 that featured one top 10 HECS storm 1983 and 2016 managed to be above average snowfall years because of that one storm. Really the overall nino numbers are skewed because 6/7 of the moderate/strong modoki years were blockbuster historic winters.

The idea of the TPV getting displaced and slowly rotating through Ontario and Quebec is a very good look for us in March. Sometimes the indexes don't tell the whole story. There really isn't a good way to measure that phenomenon on any of the major teleconnections but that general look has worked for us many a time. It lead to probably our greatest combination of March cold/snow in 1960. It worked for the March 1993 bomb. It lead to a cold/snowy period in March 1965, 1978, 1984, 1996, 2014, and 2015. A -EPO by itself is not necessarily a good snow look. What does make a -EPO work is if there is either some blocking on the atlantic side also (ridge bridge) OR a displaced TPV into central/eastern Canada to suppress the attempts at ridging in the east. Looks like we get a little of both... we start the period with some NAO help and a ridge bridge which helps to severely displace the TPV to the south and flood the eastern US with cold which sets up a pretty good period in early March.

I can be slow sometimes lol

You don't have to defend yourself to me... I get your shtick. I find it funny and amusing, and when you want to get serious you can and make good posts.

You look at long range "threats" totally wrong. We spend a large portion of like 80% of our winters in a no hope it aint gonna snow no way no how shutout pattern. That is just the reality of our crappy snow climo. So when a "chance" comes along...even if its only like a 20% probability, at day 10 we talk about it. But most of the threats we discuss are not truly high probability. And MOST of our snow ends up coming out of those low probability chances. It's pretty rare that we get those ideal perfect setups where there is a high (like 40% or above) chance of snow from 10 days away. Ironically the early December threat was probably the only such one this year and it was a total fail for most of us. But even though its worth talking about...and some of them hit, and most of our snow comes that way... the majority of those day 10 "threats" will fail. We know that. They are all very very low probability. So its not some forecasting fail or discussion fail when these day 10 threats don't turn into snow. We all know that most of these won't work out. But if we only discussed threats that had a high probability we would basically have lots of months with NOTHING to talk about. Some of us like to discuss the weather even if it won't result in snow in our yard. If you do not that is totally fine also...but then maybe this is the wrong place for you!

Regarding the day 8-9 threat there... it has a chance but the key is for the southern feature to become dominant. Right now the guidance is keying on the northern stream feature, and that is going to go to our north so if that is the dominant focus of the energy and upper level height falls then we are not going to win. If, however, the focus shifts to the southern stream disturbance...and that becomes the dominant focus of amplification...the northern stream can get pulled into that instead and suddenly the looks morphs quickly...that is kind of what happened back in January. Initially the guidance was keying on a northern stream system and it looked like rain and suddenly it became a snow threat...it looked like the whole setup changed so drastically but in reality it just started to key on the southern feature instead of the northern one. After that...the day 11 seems like a more classic threat with a stj system coming across to our south and needing it to turn up the coast. Plenty of cold in place. The euro has some hits in that range but I also count 16 members that miss us to the south with that wave. Some have a lot of snow in southern VA and NC and others just a little as temps are marginal down there...but the bottom line is there are way more misses south then north for that threat and that is how I like it at this range. If we get to day 7 and the focus is still south then I might start to worry about suppression but at day 11 south is where we want it imo.

The pattern is LOADED...Ji is just being Ji

I agree with you regarding chasing the day 15 patterns all winter. The guidance has been awful past about day 11 with trying to go to the classic central pac nino look but failing to factor in the anomalous persistent interference around the Maritime continent. But when it comes to specific threats...the guidance has actually done pretty good from around day 12 in. The early December storm that crushed central and southern VA was seen past day 10. Shame it missed us but being off by like 100 miles from 12 days away is not a model fail imo. Those SWFE's along the front in Mid January that ended up mostly/all rain in our area but crushed north of us was seen from range too. They teased us with snow for a while at like day 12 but we know how they adjust 90% of the time without blocking and in the end they were right on time and pretty close to what guidance showed 12 days out only adjusted about 100 miles north. The TPV displacement in late January and the possability of anafront snows with it was modeled amazingly from long range. We even joked like a week out how there was no way guidance would see anafront snow from that range...but they did. Both of the snow/ice events we just had were modeled past day 10 and only went through what I would consider minor changes from 10 days out. The only big snow event in this region that was not seen well far out was the early January one. It has been a weird year for the NWP. Complete and total failure at picking out the general pattern trends at day 11-15 but pretty darn good at picking out the general idea for specific storm threats at day 10 (especially if we added in some common sense adjustments to how they would likely evolve)...which technically is usually harder and less accurate then general patterns. Go figure.

So sorry. Can’t think of anything better to say just sorry.

Only you could manage to screw up a closed upper low crossing VA and a 980 low just east of ocean city lol

Sorry @C.A.P.E. you get screwed by that one too. how does it even manage to hook around you like that???? What did you do?

Euro weekly control says we just have to be REALLY patient...

If it’s not Scottish it’s CRAP