psuhoffman

I can think of something else that describes

I must look into this analog thing. Never heard of it. Sounds like voodoo black magic to me.

Yea each model keeps spitting out a snow solution here or there but it continues to be a random storm with no consistency. Until we see guidance converge on the same discreet event it all remains highly unlikely.

Wrt the op euro the SS and NS missed the phase and a major storm by 6 hours. It was as close as you can get without a major amped solution. And it would have amplified perfectly for us location wise. It was a run that suggests there is a chance. There have been enough runs with a similar look that it’s at least still a threat, if a long shot one. That’s all it’s worth.

In fairness you might be the only one of the 7 people in this sub effected by that still paying any attention. I am at the point where I check in once a day and scan everything but not wasting any more time than that. I don't really have that much time right now anyways.

When I was in Revelstoke years ago I met a local riding the lift who was in his 60s and was looking for someone to go into the backcountry with. He showed me some pretty awesome terrain and he was still carving it up at his age. We did 3 awesome runs down the backside of the resort and then we had a few beers while he waxed our skis for the next day. The locals in that part of BC have always been friendly. One trip the credit card system was having issues and cards wouldn't work and the people behind me in line took care of my lunch.

I know the thread is a dumpster fire joke at this point but it can snow even into late March here, and some of the years it did were god awful seasons like this one. Now...does that mean it’s likely? Hell no. It’s a long shot. And we’re not getting some 20” cold smoke HECS. A small slushy accumulation is more likely if anything at all. But some would be happy with that and would want to track it. So if you’re one of the people who has totally checked out (I’m mostly checked out) fine but leave those that want to track every lottery ticket chance to the bitter end alone. It’s no skin off your back. Posts whining about other people tracking low probability snow chances is more annoying than the posts tracking them.

JH is actually quite steep. Hard to convey on video because the camera is also angled downhill giving the illusion that it’s flat. Corbett’s was closed while I was there. Some of the chutes that we’re open we’re plenty steep enough for me. If you take a line down rendevous bowl then the hobacks you get 4000 feet of consistent perfect steep pitch with just a small flat area in the middle. JH has plenty of nice tree stashed. If you like trees Revelstoke is the place. I’m a tree skier myself. Nothing compares to their glade terrain. Revelstoke actually has the most vertical at over 5000 but the bottom 1000 or so is low elevation and useless. Most don’t even ski it and use the gondola connection to get down. So if you remove that JH and Revelstoke are similar wrt real vertical. One difference is the terrain layout. Revy is one massive mountain with more consistent lines down. JH is a ridge line with more gullies and ridges and horizontal traversing to get to one area or another. Both have plenty of advanced epic terrain.

This is one from Revelstoke a few years ago. My brother shot it so it’s usually me or my wife in the shots. It’s a whole other world up there. Amazing place.

Everywhere is getting more expensive. One issue is the shrinking disposable income of the working class in America. There just isn’t as much of a market for businesses to cater to that segment anymore. More and more resorts are focused on the wealthy. It’s a shame. Colorado is the worst wrt that. JH was expensive but not out of control. I found some reasonable places to stay and eat. BC (other than Whistler) is still a better value. Some of the powder highway resorts are great bargain deals with low key towns to stay in.

Lol Jackson is only about 6000 feet. Good lord if someone gets elevation sickness from that I can’t imagine if they went to Breck or A Basin. Lol.

Lol with some luck 2018 could have been a good year. Every so often you can get a good Nina but that might have been the year and we just got screwed. Most places around us had above normal snow that year. Frankly in the last 40 years our odds of a big year in anything other than a moderate nino are very low. It used to be a neutral was a pretty good enso state also but lately they mostly end up crap too.

Winters like these happen once a decade where everyone outside the northern mountains get screwed.

Unfavorable pac forcing combined with a strong PV. Years where there was a significant pattern flip from warm to cold during winter 1958,1960,1966,1972,1987,1993,1999,2000,2005,2007,2014,2016,2018. There are plenty of flips from cold to warm also. But by New Years the combo of a strong phase 5/6 mjo wave in conjunction with a strong PV coupling with the tpv hinted that this year was at risk to be a total dud. That combo is the leading cause of our total wasted years. This result isn’t a big surprise.

Thanks. JH makes it hard to to get good shots. Gorgeous scenery. Epic terrain. Very nice authentic town also. Probably my favorite US destination. Revelstoke in BC is awesome too but getting there is a mission.

It was a VERY expensive weekend

Video from my Jackson Hole trip https://gopro.com/v/wEZbW9b3ENrOP

I doubt anyone actually expects it to snow

Read my post above. My comment was about the pattern and nothing to do with what I want, whether that winter was good/bad, or snowfall totals. Snowfall is very fluky and can be a bad way to determine pattern similarities alone.

I didn't say it was a good winter...but the pattern ended up a hybrid between the cold/snowy west based nino analogs and the warmer more east based super ninos. It certainly was warmer and less snowy than the analogs like 58, 03, 10 but it did feature more "chances" at snow in the mid atlantic with cold periods than 1998. All of them other than the one big HECS missed NYC but that details while very important to ground truth doesn't mean a lot wrt to the larger scale pattern. There was a weak wave that missed NYC to the south right before the HECS. There were small accumulations in VA and MD from that. Another wave right after got suppressed and failed to amplify and no one got anything. I got 8" here in MD from a storm on Feb 9-10th that stayed south of NYC. Then there was a 4-8" snowstorm in VA and southern MD that missed to the south of NYC a week later and then an ice storm right after that. Then there were 2 threats in March, one the first week and then one around the 19th that put down some snow to the south of NYC and were threats to be a bigger storm but failed to phase and amplify. There were several periods of cold/snow threats that winter...mid January, another mid February, and then 2 cold snaps in March with threats. In between there were full on torch periods that skewed the mean temps very warm. But that was different from 1998 when there were very few periods where it was cold enough for a snow threat. NYC got screwed over and most of the other threats failed to phase or amplify and stayed south of NYC but there were snow threats. IN the end it was probably way closer to 98 or 83 than 2010 but it did feature more cold periods and snow threats in the mid atlantic than those years.

Any hope of that factor changing left the building a while ago. At this point whatever minimal chances at snow remain hinge on getting a lucky wave track from short wavelength induces chaos.

op GFS develops the best pattern of the year mid March lol. Of course that look wouldnt work without the shorter wavelengths. There are still some hints that there could be chances for cold to be around at times mid month...we will see. Any snow continues to be a long shot imo.

In fairness 2016 ended up somewhat in between. After the December into early Jan torch the rest of winter there was significantly more cold available than in 98. There were numerous additional snow opportunities with cold around after the HECS in Feb and March but they failed to come together. There were several perfect wave passes where the system just failed to amplify. 98 simply lacked any cold wall to wall. 2016 has some characteristics of both and with some more luck could have been even snowier in the mid Atlantic.

You have more chance of waking up in Oz than with snow on the ground.

If you really were a meteorologist for 30 years maybe you should have done more “work” and then your posts would suck less.