psuhoffman

It’s very cold and very dry

Gave up on the whole thing? Maybe that’s the boost we need lol. Haven’t read or watched him in days but I thought he was all in for a big east coast snowstorm next week.

Euro suppresses both the March 6 and 8 threat. We get a nice big rainstorm then a week of nice cold dry.

Really lol. Wasn’t he pimping some big snow fanale for 95 next week a few days ago?

Euro is bad... and it's been trending that way consistently for several runs now. Doesn't mean its right but hurts confidence. The euro was over amplified with several systems the last 2 years though so there is that.

I can't remember any season where there was such a consistent exact sharp cutoff in the max snowfall like this. Even in 2010 when MD was the bullseye there were storms throughout the year that veered from that to the north and south. There wasn't the same general cutoff for snowfall from every event. I have been inside the northern edge of the best stuff a few times... and just outside it most of the time, but its been somewhere right in this same area with every snowfall event this winter that impacted the mid atlantic. Really odd. Probably just a fluke thing.

I was just poking fun lol. Guidance wont nail the exact placement of that tiny band from this range yet plus this is really a function of just how meso scale this "storm" really is.

In years past I would joke right now about being fringed.... I don't really feel like joking about that right now. Maybe mother nature is paying me back for all those years of making fun of that prospect.

So what does it make me when its a good event for the "northern tier" but the max is still south of me? lol

I still expect jumps. I think when I said “if guidance settles on this for another couple runs we can kiss it goodbye” people might have thought that’s what I expect. I don’t. This is way too complicated a pattern to know. Too many waves in a fast progression to feel confident in anything. My general assessment remains that we will see snow somehow from all this but that I would like to see a more amplified trough and given the fast progressive flow my 8”+ storm is unlikely.

Lol you do have skills I’ll give you that.

Not giving up on anything just stating the obvious that there was a sudden severe shift north with the boundary for that storm the last 24 hours. There could be more shifts to come. Gfs is jumping the worse among guidance and the most out of sync with everything else so I’m kinda tossing it but your right a gfs euro comp would be good.

Yesterday when all the strong storm members of the eps were way NW that was a red flag to me. Again tonight most eps members that get snow into our area are the weak wave ones. Most of the ones that have a big snowstorm are way north. The really big 12”+ ones are way way way north. Like Cleveland to northern New England north. If the only way to get snow from it is to root for the system to be a weak squashed pathetic wave then what’s the point. I’d honestly rather New England get 1-2 feet to build base for my ski trip later in the month than my yard get another 3” from some weak wave.

Eps is a train wreck. All those threats just gone. Lol. If we toss the fv3 it was unanimous across the 0z guidance that the wave Sunday night is rain now. Two things happened. That wave sped up and amplified and the Saturday system weakened and the result was there was less cold push behind the Saturday wave and the return flow ahead of Sunday night and so the boundary shifted significantly north. It was across all guidance. It was just one run but if that change locks in for another run or two we can kiss that goodbye. But hey the gefs has some nice threats day 10-15 lol.

It’s been there, 0z seems to be somewhat redirecting the mid week threat. Oh well bob was right that none of this will be resolved at range given the pattern.

Fv3 looks so different lol Gfs seems on another planet with that wave Sunday morning but across all guidance there is a trend that’s a big problem. The wave is coming in faster and that decreases the spacing but also it then rides north because the front doesn’t have a chance to sink south. Before it can make any progress south the return flow ahead of the next wave hits. Good news is the moving parts are still shifting every run but let’s hope they don’t finally settle on this idea.

Nope. Gfs has a wave on Sunday morning that isn’t there on other guidance. That wrecks the spacing and flattens the flow behind it. If that wave is real there is almost no hope for the Sunday night wave. But the gfs has been alone with that so far.

I done been Namethed.

@losetoa6 Full disclosure I am big game hunting at this point. I’m still 15” below climo and it’s been a weird year in that even locally up here I’ve been stuck in a hole. I’ve seemed to get less than even areas around me up here on several occasions. Not used to that. But more importantly I am a big storm fan and right now this winter has had the lowest single storm totals of every year I’ve been up here. So another 3-5” snow has absolutely no appeal or interest to me. It wouldn’t change my perception of this year at all. It’s 8”+ or bust for me. I’ve had an 8”+ storm 8 years in a row and if this winter fails to achieve that it will feel like a failure to me. Keep in mind I’m more a big storm fan than just snow. I would rather a winter with 20” that all came in one big storm than a winter with 30” that fell 2-4” at a time. That’s just me. I know most would go the other way on that but this winter has been my least favorite type. All nickel and dime stuff here. So keep that in mind wrt my analysis. I think the odds of seeing snow in the next 2 weeks remains high. I think one of these waves will trend better. But I think the chances of an 8”+ storm took a serious hit the last 24 hours with the trend towards a much flatter trough.

That from 12z? If so there was a mix of south, hits, and north. Problem was the really amped up solutions that put down big totals (8”+) were all north and rain. It was depressing that most of the hits were pretty minor to modest snowfalls. The members that amped up into a big storm pushed the snow nw of us. That kind of was a red flag that out potential might be limited with this. If it’s weak it might hit but if it amps up enough to give good precip it might go north. These progressive waves are annoying that way. It’s really hard to get crushed by them at our latitude. That’s why I liked the idea of the northern branch digging and phasing and something bombing up the coast later in the week. That scenario would have more potential to give a big storm. The early week storm seems capped at a moderate event and even that seems ambitious att.

Nice... I’m not throwing in the towel at all. I kind of still expect one of these waves to step up and trend more amplified for us but today was a crappy set of runs. Even the euro op honestly didn’t really support such a strong wave looking at h5. Its been trending flatter across all guidance the last 24 hours. We’ve seen these things ping pong back before though.

Fv3 kills everything the same way the gfs does. There is some wave along the front Saturday that wasn’t there before and behind it the trough stretches out positively tilted and flat and just squashes everything.

The gfs really is a disaster lol. Totally squashes everything. No spacing between any of the waves. The bigger concern to me is the trend at h5. The trough is digging less and coming in further east and more positively tilted lately. Honestly when I was looking at the 12z op euro at h5 I was thinking “I don’t really see how this wave is amplified enough to be significant”. There was nothing but flat progressive flow. There is still time and plenty of waves to work with but we need a trend towards one of these to be more amplified and more dig from the northern stream to start soon.

EPS is kind of deflating. Totally lost the 1st and 3rd threats and wrt to the Sunday/Monday wave there is a weird mix of weak south misses and too amplified and rain solutions. Some hits in there but honestly it was an awful 12z eps run compared to the last few runs.

No one should be doing any victory laps based on any model runs right now, this is going to bounce around a bit before we get a better idea on the details. The trend is definitely more amplified. I kind of started out rooting against this wave in favor of the next one...but if this continues there won't be any next one and this is becoming "big enough" to be worth it so... I still think that next wave had the better upside but whatever. But the best part about this run is that MAYBE we can go an hour without CHO updates from @Snowchaser