psuhoffman

I’ve suspected the unfavorable forcing this year is too hostile for the chaos of shorter wavelengths alone to overcome. It works sometimes. But it’s not like this pattern often morphs into a suddenly long term great pattern in March. This isn’t like some years 2017/2018 come to mind) where I had hope for a more meaningful late season pattern change. Those years while hostile featured a much colder overall profile and weaker hostile forcing. Years like that do often flip late. Years like this usually don’t. What did happen in some similar years was the chaos of shorter wavelengths created an opening and we got lucky with one fluke. But the forcing this year has been so strong and consistent (as evidenced by the measurable effects of the pac ridge and AO) that I’ve been skeptical even March will offer much. Not too late to be wrong on that but hope is fading fast.

The follow up wave next week is close to dead. The problem is the lead wave misses the phase with the NS. The NS wave slides by to the north ahead of it and leaves it behind. Without that phase the lead wave sits, weakens, and dies without pulling cold in behind it so the next wave will amplify to our west and north where the boundary will be. That change is only 3-4 days out so the fact all guidance went that way makes it very reliable imo. Even if the storm we were watching is still 5-6 days out the dominoes that will determine its fate start falling the wrong way at only day 3 now.

Yea it’s “possible” but one threat in 7 weeks hitting one location isn’t good odds.

There are waves in those phases problem is since early Jan there has been a more dominant standing wave in the western Pac muting any effect both on that chart and the pattern of any convection in favorable locations.

Hypothetically the way to get it under us is a stronger lead system that holds longer and knocks down heights. Other then that simply blind stupid luck of the second system just happens to dig further east. The best shot remains the first energy ejection behind that. But it’s now looking like a one shot deal. If that gets suppressed were likely toast as guidance is reverting to the base state much faster now. For a few days it appeared we might even get a longer window with 2-3 chances before the reversion. That obviously would have significantly increased our odds.

When we were entering this god awful pattern I saw a lot of posts with a “we will probably get lucky somewhere” attitude but I kept thinking “ehh unlikely in this look”. The years with this pattern where we got some snow usually it was around the fringes, early before it set in or late. We didn’t get lucky early so now we are left needing some luck late. But most of the analogs to that look we’re am absolute barren wasteland once that pattern locked in for the duration of Jan and Feb.

Oh look the one time the EPS looked better than the GEFS is the one time it caves to the GEFS! Where have we seen this before

This is how I feel. The longwave pattern isn’t that different but we are seeing the expected seasonal changes giving us the “chance” at the late fluke. It could work. But it still won’t come easy with the look up top likely to remain hostile. But this is the time of year flawed can work more often if we can just get enough cold around.

There is no shame in being wrong (I am a lot) wrt long range forecasting. Stuff past 10 days is like being a batter in baseball. Even the best will be wrong a lot. But playing childish ass games that insult others intelligence is inexcusable. I also think he was better years ago when he didn’t only focus on super long range stuff. He used to do a good job breaking down the details of medium range threats. That still takes skill but it’s way more useful and realistic than only making super long range stabs in the dark. It’s like he stopped trying to hit singles and only swings for the fences now. And he seems increasingly frustrated with it all also. He has gone full tilt. I do think some of it is intentional (an act) but some is likely out if his control.

I agree about using IAD however you cannot use the DCA avg to make your forecast then use the IAD results to verify it.

I totally get why most have given up and this setup is not a high probability one. There are lots of moving parts that we need to play nice. Those usually don’t work. BUT...a winning solution is still very much within the envelope of realistic possible scenarios with that trailing wave next week. But it’s unlikely to be the kind of thing resolved well by guidance at range so I’m ok with it just looking ambiguously close at this point.

Who cares. My final falling out with JB was many years ago when he used IAD snowfall to verify a DCA forecast...and even with that trick it was still several inches short and he rounded up and said “close enough”. Dude has no scruples.

It was closer to something from the trailing wave too. A split between the gfs and gem would work. One over and one under amplified.

The SE gets another one

Ggem is at least somewhat interesting.

So much for the QBO. It came in at -2.5 for January and it’s not helping one bit.

@showmethesnow things are trending somewhat better (minus the spacing issue) for next week...but it’s still a low probability threat. In a good year we likely wouldn’t even be tracking it. Lots of moving parts that need to play nice. After that, as expected, the look is degrading again. Gefs and geps totally lost the idea of any epo help. They reform the AK vortex Pac Ridge combo...yay. Eps actually still looks ok into March but how much you wanna bet this is when the eps is wrong!

Kidding but it was. Never gets the front east so it’s cutter after cutter cutter. But no way that could happen right? RIGHT!

18z gfs is a disaster

That happens sometimes in our total crap fail years... years with a base state bad for snow isn't that unusual...but even within those years to get a total absolute fail takes some bad luck, and often areas all around will have at least some snow. Even in the absolute worst years it is still winter and there will be some fluke opportunities, a trailing wave on a front, a transient PNA ridge. To get a total fail you have to have a bad pattern...but then also get unlucky and miss on the few fluke opportunities that do come along.

@showmethesnow the gem just did exactly what I was envisioning above. Gfs wasn’t that far off either. It might be a viable idea.

Yea...I assumed it was meant to be a parody

Wait that post was supposed to make sense?

If the pattern for early March is correct at least we would have trackabke threats. Still a long shot to get a big hit but all guidance is at least cold enough that it’s not laughable to think maybe...

We have fail threads now!!!!