As this thing comes up the coast it's going to mutatae into a coastal storm or nor'easter and that is why most of the global models show significant deepening once again it reaxches eastern NC/ Hatteras. At that point it will clearly be ex tropical and pulling cooler air from a large HIGH to the north. So as the Hermine pulls in cooler air on its nw side whole the eastern side stays warm/ triopical it becomes baroclinic .. develop frontal boundaries and it will no longer be tropical th
That being said the 11:00 PM advisory from NHC with regard to day 4- is pretty bad. I means its wretched Apparently NHC seems to be following the GFS and the HWRF -- which explains why their extended forecasts track Sucks
The HWRF is obviously NOT the model to use that ths point since Hermine will no longer be a tropical system. The numerous flaws with the GFS model system compunds the problem -- while it true that the GFS does stalls the system often Middle Atlantic Coast... the GFS model flaws has it closing off at the upper levels and stalling much too far to the east .
I suppose this is why th th the 11:00 PM advisory has the nor'easter or hybrid storm stalled south of New England when the obvious synoptic pattern shows the systen stalling out east of the Delmarva. This is supported by the Wednesday12Z operational European the European ENSEMBLE and the 0z Thur NAM / WRF which stalls the TC/ Noreaster mix at 60 to 84 hours to east of Delmarva. It should be noted that all of these models of course have a much more refined resolution then the GFS and handle oor'easter significantly better than the HWRF