DTWXRISK

Meteorologist
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About DTWXRISK

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    KRIC

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  1. WOW hell of a way to end OCT and pile up the SIBERIAN snow cover ( amounts and area)
  2. WEAK LA NINA in the AUTUMN that died off by the time early/ mid DEC ( I like this scenario best) woof
  3. WEAK LA NINA WINTERS in the that featured Mod /strong El Nino Previous Winter that died off in the Spring this scenario is more likely ASSUMING the weak La Nina 1) stays weak 2) last all winter long
  4.  like the   meme  / posts ?

  5.  dude come on.. just stop

  6. As this thing comes up the coast it's going to mutatae into a coastal storm or nor'easter and that is why most of the global models show significant deepening once again it reaxches eastern NC/ Hatteras. At that point it will clearly be ex tropical and pulling cooler air from a large HIGH to the north. So as the Hermine pulls in cooler air on its nw side whole the eastern side stays warm/ triopical it becomes baroclinic .. develop frontal boundaries and it will no longer be tropical th . That being said the 11:00 PM advisory from NHC with regard to day 4- is pretty bad. I means its wretched Apparently NHC seems to be following the GFS and the HWRF -- which explains why their extended forecasts track Sucks The HWRF is obviously NOT the model to use that ths point since Hermine will no longer be a tropical system. The numerous flaws with the GFS model system compunds the problem -- while it true that the GFS does stalls the system often Middle Atlantic Coast... the GFS model flaws has it closing off at the upper levels and stalling much too far to the east . I suppose this is why th th the 11:00 PM advisory has the nor'easter or hybrid storm stalled south of New England when the obvious synoptic pattern shows the systen stalling out east of the Delmarva. This is supported by the Wednesday12Z operational European the European ENSEMBLE and the 0z Thur NAM / WRF which stalls the TC/ Noreaster mix at 60 to 84 hours to east of Delmarva. It should be noted that all of these models of course have a much more refined resolution then the GFS and handle oor'easter significantly better than the HWRF
  7. Some one above posted the last 30 days Mean error scores of the various global weather models and of course we all saw that the GFS is now in 4TH place. In looking at the 0z GFS / GFS ensembles we can wee why the GFS has dropped to 4th The solution that the early 0z THURS op-GFS and GFS ensembles are showing... are in a word ridiculous. The idea that this model can still take this weak tropical wave northward into the massive dome over North Carolina Virginia then curve into the northeast is well meteorologically impossible. It's even more puzzling because the 0z Thurs GFS keeps 99L so weak that if it stays this disorganized the bigger risk would be for the system to crash into Cuba and dissipate. In other words the operational GFS as wells the GFS ensembles are offering a solutions which is mutually exclusive to each other. If this system stays as weak as the operational 0z GFS / GFS ensembles are depicting this early Thursday morning ... the data threat would be for the system to crash and the Eastern Cuba and dissipate. The ONLY way for 99L to turn THAT sharply to pass EAST of the monster dome at 500 mb over NC VA is for 99L to intensify fast .. the one thing the GFS does not do Yet the GFS models want to keep 99L system weak and turn it to the N.. NE then out to sea in the face of an enormous dome at 500 Mb centered over the Middle Atlantic region which extends out into the Western Atlantic Ocean. This absurd solution is probably a good case of how and why the GFS is in fourth place