psuhoffman

12z eps was a train wreck run. Nothing good about it.

The op euro is doing what the 18z GFS yesterday (to a lesser extent) did. That wave in the PAC is actually displacing the TPV off the pole and seriously impacting the HL pattern. That would work. But the problem is the vast majority of guidance is trending away from that. But I suppose it is far enough out...and coming during a period where this is "some" mjo phase 2 forcing, that MAYBE we get a temporary TPV disruption. Perhaps I am discounting that possibility too much. If so that would set up a more than "needs crazy good luck" period. I still doubt it would last long but we take what we can get.

There is nothing to make that happen... there is no blocking and the trough axis is way too far west.

@stormtracker The STJ wave has no mid or upper level support to wrap up, and also there is no high pressure to create a resistant flow to the southerly flow around the low or enough real cold air to create WAA lift. That inhibits a healthy precipitation shield. Without that the southerly flow simply displaces the air in the way. There is on real cold or resistant flow around a high to create the "lift" needed to get precip.

I planned a more in depth post after the 12z runs finished but I will probably be too busy later so i will just dump my thoughts now. There might still be a window where something is "possible" in the week 2 period but the season long pattern flaws of the +EPO/AO/NAO will continue. A very transient wave through the PAC NW ejects some cold into the CONUS though...and there are some signs a second wave could do the same, but any hopes of those 2 waves effecting a real change on the NAM state are pretty much dead. At range those 2 waves were severely weakening the PV...but the trend away from that has been steady and now neither of those waves even really makes much of a dent. They do at the least deliver some cold. But the trough axis is going to be too far west. To get anything to work it will take luck with taking up waves like the op GFS does. The best way would be to get a series of waves where the first wave draws a front through and a second wave follows close behind. We have lucked out way to some snow in a bad pattern that way before, but its going to take luck and not be something we can track from day 10. After that I have a feeling things get ugly again. It's easy to see where the MJO is heading... another high amplitude cycle through 4/5/6/7 is likely on the way. 7 is also a warm phase in Feb/Mar so we would have to wait until it gets through that whole rotation again to have a chance at a meaningful pattern flip. The feedback from those phases is likely to pull the pacific ridge back and pump the SE ridge in the kind of gradient TNH pattern we are looking at. I suspect this February will end up looking a lot like last February...except with a raging positive NAO instead of a neutral one. The timing of that next MJO rotation takes us into very late February or more likely March. If, and I have no confidence in this, the PV is more vulnerable at that time...that would be the next window to get a meaningful pattern change. Just in time to get 45 degree rain all spring.

95-96 kinda makes sense in hindsight... It came during the period following a solar minimum where the NAO was biased negative for several years. Very favorable QBO. It wasnt a particularly strong nina and it was following a nino so there was probably some mixed signals wrt enso. A few years ago (when we were starting down a nina) I looked at snowfall results in all Nina years and I found that when the NAO is actually negative in a nina our snow results can be ok. The issue is that the pacific forcing in a nina favors a positive NAO and so MOST Nina years have a predominantly positive AO/NAO. But if we ever get the combination of a weak/moderate nina where all other factors (solar/QBO/previous enso state) strongly favor blocking to overcome the enso we could get another 1996. It actually wouldn't shock me if something like that happened in the next few years...provided the nina isnt strong enough to overpower the other influences.

I know... just so funny that they never worry about "normal" when its snowing. The NYC sub is the WORST with that...probably because they got used to having almost every year above normal for like 10 years... but when they get a year "below normal" even if it the year before was GREAT there are some posters that act like its some galactic injustice or something...and I think...well if all you ever have are "above normal" and "normal" then your normal would have to continually rise...I guess maybe that is what they expect?

The next time we get a winter like 2010 or 2014 I am going to complain constantly how "all this snow isn't normal"

my lunch sucked

SHHHHHH I said to keep that on the down low

I am going to make a post wrt the pattern and threats coming up...but was busy with work this morning (SHHHH dont tell anyone) and decided to wait until after the 12z guidance finishes.

Why do you assume that just because I am not making a ton of posts whining and complaining that I am not frustrated? Of course I am frustrated when its not snowing! Just because I don't make 5 posts a day whining about our lack of snow doesn't mean I am not frustrated. Let me summarize what our "normal" climo is and then I am done and you can believe whatever you want to believe. To get a "snowy" winter we basically need one of 2 very anomalous patterns to be dominant at some point in the winter. Either an EPO/PNA combo ridge like 2003/2014/2015 or an NAO block like 1996/2010. But those 2 patterns are NOT normal...they are not likely to dominate most years. They happen about 25% of the time. The other 75% of the time we get years where the base state sucks for snow and we have to hope to scrap and claw and get lucky that maybe we get a 1-2 week window and score some snow but odds are it will mostly suck. Those years will range from total dumpster fire no snow at all to if we really get lucky end up near average. Years like 2000 and 2002 highlight the difference. 2000 we only had a one week window all winter that was a favorable pattern...and we got hit 3 times...by all 3 threats the entire winter! 2002 there was a really good blocking period in late December into early January...but one storm got suppressed and hit NC and another was just slightly too warm and hit just NW of us...and then the last threat was kinda weak sauce and only ended up a 2-3" snow (the only snow all winter). But had 1-2 of those threats in that window hit 2002 would be like 2000. Had the one really big storm in 2000 missed...we would remember that like 2002. Look at this year...there was a wave mid December that sheared out...had that amplified a little big we all get a decent snowstorm. Early January if it was just a couple degrees colder DC gets 3-5". This weekend...had the STJ wave timed up a little better maybe DC gets a decent snowstorm. Bad luck might make this year a total dumpster fire vs just a typical bad year where DC gets 8" but the bottom like is this year fits into that 75% of the time where we DONT get a -NAO or EPO/PNA ridge. What I think some take issue with wrt your posts...is that you act like EVERY winter other than 2000/2003/2010/2014/2015 are TOTAL CRAP. You acted like 2018 was garbage but your area finished above normal that year. You complained in 2016 because the HECS dry slotted you but you still ended up near average on snowfall that winter. You act like its not normal...but you say that 75% of the time! Obviously if something happens 75% of the time IT IS NORMAL!!! I am NOT saying it doesn't suck or isnt frustrating...just that getting not a lot of snow around here isnt abnormal.

Why do you keep calling it a "wet snowstorm". That whole week was cold. Most of the snow from that storm fell with temperatures in the upper 20's to around 30 degrees. The high for the day was only 32. It was NOT a "wet snowstorm" anymore than almost all our snowstorms are "wet" snow. Also..."melts off a few days later"? Are you kidding me? You realize the coldest daily avg high temperature in DC is 43! How many snowstorms do you think keep snow OTG for more than a "few" days after it snows somewhere that the coldest time of the year has average highs more than 10 degrees above freezing? That happens like a handful of times a decade if we are lucky. And lastly that was NOT the only snow in DC last winter.

Snow...lots and lots of SNOW Honestly I think you all have done the best possible this year. For the most part the really stupid stuff has been in banter or panic room. The main thread has been as good as possible given the total crap we have had to deal with.

Becomes...lol

Let’s see how it screws this up.

@Isotherm can’t an Aleutian ridge RNA pattern be overcome easier in March? Assuming the NAO cooperated a little, which I have doubts of. Btw quick question wrt to last year. I know overall all the factors that lead to a less canonical nino response but there were times last February when the epo was very negative with a not hostile AO/NAO either (not the epic blocking sine expected but not bad either) and yet the trough continued to dump into the west and we had a huge eastern ridge. In some other years with a similar look we got a broad full conus positively tilted trough where could come translate east. What was the difference? This look never struck me as that bad yet in most ways yet we had a monster eastern ridge. I thought with that look in the HL from the epo to the NAO we would at least suppress the SE ridge some.

That’s ice down there. This is the actual clown map

There is a chance that it’s mathematically possible that it could happen.

So you’re saying they explode like Marvel Universe???

It’s really only 12” and a ton of ice. Way more realistic.

Ok so if we actually get this ridiculous epo block and the AO flips to neutral like this... then yea that storm is totally realistic. But count me skeptical that flip up top is real. But there is always a chance. And if so it better freaking snow because it leads to this...

I bet kuchera is better

It wasn’t nearly as hostile as this year but it wasn’t ideal.