psuhoffman

Visuals.... the initial band that gets VA to DC west to east the second thump that comes across MD

Euro doesn’t have one consolidated band. It sends waves. An unitial band comes across VA to DC. Then another across MD and into PA. There is “some” minimum between the two that you can see there but the two thumps overlap enough that no one gets screwed too bad. As a result there is no 8-10” area but a very big area of 4-6”. Not a bad idea.

I had 7” here. There were some 8” totals along the PA line just to my west. I missed the storm though stuck in Baltimore trying to get home in god awful traffic and road conditions. 30 was a mess!

Not feeling this one? Nws seems overly bullish to me.

Because the gfs has a known warm bias in these situations and it’s all by itself so...

@C.A.P.E. the eps has been sneakily trending towards the gefs. They break the Atlantic down towards the end but who cares what they do out in “haven’t had a clue all year” leads. Through day 8-12 big improvements

Were gonna need that stj once the TPV gets suppressed to our north.

The pattern long range is starting to look like 2014 and 2015 some. If your gonna live on the epo it needs to extend into Canada like that. When it’s directed into Alaska all it does is dump troughs into the west this time of year. That look might actually be too much...I would be a little worried about suppression IF that actually ended up correct. Also I can kinda see why 1993 is in the analogs. The way you get that kind of bomb is if something rotated and dives in under that displaced TPV and amplifies then pulls it in. You get the monster phased bomb. But that’s a super long shot. Most times that setup is there it doesn’t come together. Like 99%.

Not bad since winter ended 10 days ago!!! Parts of New England got 6” the other day after that snow ice storm last week and now early March looks COLD. He should cancel winter more often!!!

You overreact lol? Nonsense Some of us can only aspire to someday attain your pinnacle of calm rational level headed emotionally stable reactions to the weather.

They average 101.7” according to the National Weather Service. https://www.weather.gov/media/wrh/online_publications/TMs/TM-273.pdf and shut up Chuck.

Nina are usually not this wet and don't have a full time sti and dont clobber so cal with rain. This has been a Nino without blocking We have done better in February ninos without blocking like 2003 and 2015 though. This nino was also lacking the typical Aleutian trough epo ridge and instead featured a north pac ridge like a Nina. So I think a better description is like a Nina with an stj. Either way it had hybrid characteristics. Kidding aside the pattern coming up can work if we get just enough ridging either from the epo or NAO to suppress the SE ridge.

Weak ninos have been disrupted by other more dominant influences before yes.

I over reacted to the NAM earlier. Euro came back south at 18z. Euro/Gfs/fv3/rgem/ggem/icon all target somewhere between northern VA and the PA line. NAM is still north but often when it’s by itself is when it’s off on a tangent. Goalposts keep narrowing and we are still between them! Fv3 is my favorite so far. It seems to have the most liberal thump coverage and best target trajectory to get the most in here happy.

For sure...I was referring to that area of 30-50” he referred too along the Mogollon Rim. That area averages about 150-200” a year. This does look like a significant storm for some lower elevation cities that don’t typically get big snow like Prescott. But he made it seem like that area of AZ doesn’t get snow when big snowstorms are fairly common in that general area. This one does seem to be affecting unusually low elevations in the area more than normal. I do think that 1967 storm I brought up gave Prescott 20”+ though.

It’s highly elevation dependent. Sedona averages 18” a year though. Flagstaff averages a little over 100” and some of the higher peaks in that area average over 250”. Arizona snow bowl ski resort near there averages 260”. A lot of that snow (like other southwest ranges such as the Sierra and San Juan’s) comes in sporadic big dumps.

Fv3 is the best solution for the most people in here. It’s a beat down for the whole area northern VA to northern MD. Best surge of precip early in the day.

That’s northern AZ and they get big snows all the time. They had a storm over 100” in that area in 1967.

No he was saying how the pattern has Nina characteristics.

Into Thursday no but some places 95 east could get some rain Wednesday evening.

Icon looks to blast central MD again.

If the main band misses Wes will be right. So odds in any one spot favor more conservative. But we’ve seen in this type setup before how whoever ends up under that west to east band gets crushed.

I was in that. Just east of New Haven along 95. It was crazy.

Ehh. Non factor. Once heavy precip starts the temp will drop to the wet bulb which isn’t that significantly effected yet at ~7am. Then given the intensity of precip expected...somewhere between 1-1.5 qpf through the day, radiation shouldn’t impact temps much. It’s still only mid February not March AND last year we got accumulations easily mid day on March 20th with much lighter rates than expected Wednesday. There are times things like sun angle and time of day can matter. If it’s March AND temps are very marginal (like 33-34) AND rates are marginal (like 1/3 to 1/2” hr) then it matters. March 2013 was an example of that. That could have been a 6-10” storm in DC if it was mid winters. But rates were only mediocre and temps were very marginal so that little bit flipped it to a fail. Even up here I got 6” but it would have been 10” easy in winter. Wasn’t accumulating at all after 10am. But if the temp is below freezing and rates are better than 1/2” hr then the whole sun angle thing is way over exaggerated.