psuhoffman

This is my sounding Chuck. STF up about the PNA because with the pna it’s going to be 33-35 during the rain. And it’s warmed 2f since 1970. This would have been a 3-4” snow event 50 years ago. The PNA isn’t the problem the problem is the boundary has warmed 2 degrees and right now it’s 2 degrees too warm! That has nothing to do with the pna. This ended up being a perfect example for my book. A storm we lost due to warming.

I want my 2 degrees back damnit!

It’s JB come On

But I don’t think our luck has changed. We always missed more than won with those. We need multiple things to come together and usually 1 or 2 factors F it up. And we say what if. But you can do that with everything. Look at 2010? What if that second Feb 9 storm doesn’t phase as fast. That’s a rare example when a phase capture on a miller b happened flawlessly. What if the Dec 2009 storm didn’t phase? The only storm that winter that was clean and simple was the Feb 5 one. We easily could have missed the other 2! Luck in cold patterns is what it is. We win some we lose some. We haven’t had a cold Nino in a long time so it’s hard to say we’re getting unlucky. We need to see what happens when we time up a -AO with a El Niño! If we manage not to snow then it’s uh oh! Where we are definitely losing now is marginal temp events. Even up here they are breaking warm more!

So serious analysis. It’s close. Boundary temps are the only issue. Places NW of 95 in MD are at 34-35 during the height of the storm with .25-.35 qpf across guidance now. If the storm were to amp say 2mb deeper and that became .5 qpf it would be enough to flip to a 1-3” snow. 4mb and .75 qpf and its a 3-5” wet snow! It’s that close. The track is perfect. But our temps are torched at the surface so we need a stronger storm to max dynamic cooling 2 degrees more than current progs. How likely is this? 10-20%. Getting that amount of error isn’t unlikely but unfortunately it’s more likely to be in the other direction. Models have a slight over amp bias and a +qpf bias. So we’re rooting for a bust that goes the opposite way or typical errors! Not impossible. There have been examples. It’s not totally dead. But it’s on life support and we need some world class surgeon to swoop in and perform a miracle surgery.

Thanks. Ya we’ve noted this too. I tried to fire out wha it was but it’s as if they set the freezing temp to 35 instead of 32 or something. It defaults anything close to snow.

There is still a wave around the 24 and it’s close. It’s a little north on most guidance but given season trends don’t mind that

You guess? What’s your point? There is no way to know whether that storm would still be snow now without knowing what the temps were DURING the snow. Not 12 hours before or after. Thats irrelevant. But oddly you know exactly what the temp was when it don’t matter but can only guess when it’s pertinent to the discussion. You think you’re clever when really it’s transparent exactly what you’re doing. Go BS somewhere else. Everyone here knows your act and it’s old tired and boring.

Because someone always baits us into that AGW to shit it down. As long as no one takes the bait…

This. I’ve told you and others this before. Places south of us are not getting more snow than us. I showed you the snowfall the last 10 years in a ton of random southern cities and none have more snow than Baltimore over the last 10 years. Not one. Some had more snow one single season. Others more a different year. This is perception bias. You don’t pay attention to exactly where the storms missing to our south hit. Or the frequency. Yea New Orleans got that big snow last year. But that’s the only damn big snow they got in the last 10 years! Charlotte got one a couple weeks ago. But they’ve only had a few storms over 10 years! Same with Raleigh, Nashville, Dallas, Little Rock, find me one city south of us that actually has more snow. Do some research before you make a declarative theory or statement. Don’t go on perception. Yes we will be like Raleigh and get some southern sliders. So every 3 years we will get one damn snowstorm. But hey we will get that storm that used to go south of us. Winning!!!

For the record I am not talking about human AGW I am simply discussing how our snow climo is changing and I am not taking the bait to engage in the causation AGW debate

Except it’s been made very clear to us that the larger discussion about cyclical v man made and all that is strictly off limits for political reasons. That’s why you don’t hear people commenting on it. It’s off limits. The fact it’s warmer now than 30/50/100 year ago is just a fact and how it affects our snow climo v 30/50/100 years ago isn’t political.

I got 1” last week lol

If there was it would be snow NW of 95. A more N more amped system actually is colder in this case because it’s only the surface that’s torched and heavier precip would dynamically cool temps more

@Cobalt you’re 100% but please delete and just ignore that jackass. He is baiting you. And worse when he gets you to engage in the more political aspects then suddenly someone finds a mod and cries and then the whole thing gets shut down. It’s the same game. He is baiting you. Delete and move on. Anyone dumb enough to believe what he said isn’t worth your time and is too stupid to understand the science you’re using to prove your point anyways.