psuhoffman

It’s very worth it. It’s written like a text book on snowstorms. Get the expanded edition that has the extra volume that goes into the dynamics behind the storms.

Sorry I made my position clear. I can live with what I’m doing. Do what you think is right.

I made my choice. Do what you have to do. The weather doesn’t mean that much to me compared to what’s going on.

Sorry you’re gonna have to ban me. Permanently. I’m on my hill and I’m willing to die on it.

Things have definitely warmed after the 2016 super Nina and stayed in a permanent warmer base state due to the persistently torched pacific basin. Whether that is permanent is the question.

Some Nina’s overproduce. 1999-2000 for instance had no business being an above normal snowfall winter given the predominant long wave pattern. We just got lucky. So conversely when that season is in an analog set I warn people a repeat of that pattern could easily result in a single digit or worse snowfall season.

That’s another year that underproduced. I am not saying it should have been a blockbuster like it was to our north. We will always struggle and be on the southern or western fringe of a lot of storms in a Nina. But the fact they all totally skunked DC/Baltimore was somewhat bad luck. I think if you repeat that seasons pattern it’s another with a 75% chance we would do better. Again not like 30”+ better but I bet that kind of pattern yields a near median snowfall outcome more often then what happened that season.

He was the leader of that band for sure but it wasn’t just him.

Remember in 2009-10 we had a hecs in December and a 1-3” snow in early January and by Jan 20 some were complaining the winter was becoming a letdown.

I agree to a point...but there have been several winters where my best snowstorm happened before December 15 and so I will take what I can get...but you're right when we time up great patterns outside mid winter...that's not good for maximizing potential...but since we don't have any control over that I'll just take whatever comes. If my memory serves, and if you are talking about that same early April storm I am... it was a problem with the energy trade off and cold air press related to the wave in front. From 5 days out that lead wave was weaker and supposed to be a small snow threat for Maryland. At one point I was even on the northern edge of a 2-4" snowfall projection from that little west to east boundary wave. But as that lead wave trended more amplified it pushed it north...but also had the corresponding effect of suppressing the wave behind it. Less energy left over, but more importantly an even greater cold air press, which crazy to say for April, was not what we needed. In the end the lead wave amplified too much and squashed the wave behind it south of us. I remember having this discussion with people that week...they were confused how a wave could be suppressed when temperatures weren't actually THAT cold and it was April. But suppression is more about the flow than the temperatures. And having high temps in the upper 40s when its sunny in April actually is VERY COLD...and indicates how dry and suppressive the flow is. Plus...had it been precipitating it would have been plenty cold enough to snow.

There were 3 dominant patterns that winter. The first 1/3 of the snow season was cold but typical Nina on that without a strong STJ and not a lot of Atlantic help big snow was hard to come by. The coast got clipped by an offshore bomb and we got a couple minor events back here. It could have been better though. I doubt much worse. the Mid Jan to late Feb pattern was bad. But it wasn’t as bad as we can get in a Nina. The poleward pac ridge extending into the AO domain provided some opportunities. Duel waves can work when cold presses. We had 2 legit threats. One fell apart and the other under produced. I got 3” from the one wave. But it could have been better if it was more organized or timed better. But it wasn’t a total shutout type pattern. More typical Nina bad. then of course March was unreal. We just missed 2 storms before the March 20 one hit. Then we missed another legit window in early April. Yea I know April but one wave gave southern PA 8” (I had about 2 here) and it’s not like those were areas that have a significantly better April snow climo the wave just went 50 miles north. Then the next wave got suppressed! We actually would have snowed had it now been squashed! Overall if we had those same 3 patterns repeat I’d put a 75% probability we get more snow than we did in 2018.

I think the analog years were for the December’s which would have made that the 2017-18 winter

The "flavor" of 2017-18 was probably about as good as we could hope for this winter, the Baltimore area was the local screw zone snow minimum in general but it featured two legitimate cold/snowy periods and even with both failing to fully reach potation around here even the minimum areas got close to a median snowfall that winter. If we repeated that general pattern with truly cold period from mid December to mid January and then crazy blocking the whole month of March...plus there were a couple lead/trailing wave opportunities in February and one produced a minor snowfall... so even the in between period wasn't a total hopeless period... considering there are some total snowless duds in the analog set I would sign up for a repeat of that winter and say please and thank you.

I’d be more concerned about why I’m suddenly a farmer in the 1800s than the winter.

If nothing changes I might just post this link with “what he said” for my winter outlook