psuhoffman

lol

Yea I think the idea is legit. But where the snow zone ends up, whether this ends up one stronger wave or multiple weaker boundary waves…major details that determine whose backyards get snow won’t be known for a while. But I agree confidence is increasing in the general flavor of the period.

@mitchnick but at this range I’m not married to any idea. I think this is a legit threat but we need to get closer to 100 hours before I’ll even try to get specific about it. And even then know further adjustments will happen. We’re still in the “this is interesting I’ll keep an eye on it” range.

At this range it was teasing us. But this is not the same situation or setup. It’s more similar to the Jan 25 storm and the AI did very well with that.

You don’t see the setup this clear on an ensemble this far out often. The crazy thing is the blocking is all that makes this work. Similar to Feb 2010, the pacific longwave pattern would normally scream huge SER but the displaced TPV and 50/50 there won’t allow it. The fight between the attempt to ridge in front of the approaching wave and the blocked in cold is what will create the threat. We’ve got snowstorms from this exact setup many times.

The median increased also!

You mthr FCKN ninja

AIFS EPS still very interested. Save yourselves time and don’t look at op runs past 100 hours. Not saying this is going to happen. There is uncertainty even among the various ensembles. But worrying about the op runs at this range will just add confusion and noise.

Who TF said the AIFS lost interest? It’s was the strongest signal across all the 12z guidance. mean more importantly the median is improving

All the models have that lead wave but it’s been mostly weak and way north so we weren’t paying attention. But given the seasonal trend it could shift south. And it will impact what happens after so we should pay attention.

I know, I've said this numerous times. I actually find your performace to be entertaining...but I know some do not. The bigger problem is there are now 100 others trying to do what you do...and it's hard to moderate them when one of the board OGs is doing it.

The thermal profile of the storm is fine...the track is just a slight bit inside what we want...adjust track of the secondary 50 miles SE and its a huge snowstorm 95 NW. I could waste my time digging into exactly why the track is slightly inside perfect but I am not going to because we are going to see way more error adjustment than 50 miles at this range...the whole thing is going to change...timing will adjust some, the thermals could get colder and then this track could work...the track could shift 100 miles either way...and those would be considered extremely minor errors and a huge win if thats all this adjusts from 200 hours out!

Who are you and what have you done with Ji

I would prefer the euro to be over amped and a little warm at this range...it's not far off synoptically from what we want. Not for that range.

It definitely seems like trolling...but the sad part is he probably is being serious