psuhoffman

Look at some of the -pna snowstorms in the 60s. It can happen. Especially if that 50/50 and Hudson high combo verify. But yea what could go wrong is more likely because snow is never the most likely outcome unless it’s that rare -NAO El Niño situation.

Only

Ask him why he thinks it’s going to be warm

@Stormchaserchuck1 you can’t claim every non snow scenario as your win. Of course not snowing is the most likely outcome. There are a ton of permutations and most end in no snow. But you can’t say “it won’t snow because the storm will be too warm, or suppressed, it just miss us, or over amped and track NE. Well duh. Ya likely one or those lol. You mean it’s not likely all the multitude of things we need to go right to get snow will all happen. Nostradamus over here.

@mitchnick. FWIW all The ensembles think the bigger risk is an over amped miss to our NW

Euro trend last 24 hours. If it did keep this up maybe another 2 more equivalent shifts and it would be a hit.

Op euro did move in the right direction the last 12 hours but it’s taking baby steps and we’re gonna need a bigger jump here at some point.

Let’s see what the eps says. 18z it was still suggesting the euro op wasn’t necessarily the most likely outcome. EPS beats the op at this range still. But this is complicated. And our luck has sucked lately. But I’ve liked this threat window for a week now. It’s legit. But complicated and requires phasing. We sometimes win with that though and we’re due. I keep saying that. When is this we’re due index supposed to kick in??? @Bob Chill

Yea icon trended to a stronger wave 1 and suppressed wave 2. AIFS went in between. Ggem went the other way at 0z. But across guidance the weaker that Friday thing is the stronger the Sunday storm and vice versa. Which makes sense. Conservation of energy in a limited space and all that jazz.

Euro is more amplified and slower with the Friday/Saturday wave. The result is its suppressing the flow behind it and absorbs what is the next wave on other guidance

Ggem just came around. I’d wait a run to assume it’s settled on a final idea. All the guidance right now still has a healthy enough primary that we get a good snowstorm of not the HECS places east of us would get. There is time to see it adjust either way. My bigger fear is the primary trends dryer and it becomes a pure miller b which would carry the threat of a real screw job up here.

Now if they did happen can it go in my book? That is a very valid concern and odds favor a miss to the east in a Nina but not EVERY time goes that way, so we can’t just assume. But yes my biggest fear would be a weaker primary with a late bombing tightly wound miller b that crushes east of us. That’s the hecs MO for Nina

I was talking to @TSSN+ and @HighStakes earlier this evening and said March 58 was a decent analog in terms of the general setup. March 58 maxed out so don’t expect that. The issue with analogs is often the analog used was the max event for that type of pattern and 99/100 repeats of the same setup won’t reach that level or extreme. Although the potential exists if it went perfectly. A more likely outcome is always a less extreme version.

How’s the @Maestrobjwa storm coming along.

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