psuhoffman

There were several other reports from near 3k feet in that area and none were close to that total until you got west of the Allegheny front from upslope. As a skier I am well aware of how EVERY ski resort inflates snowfall. Not some. Not sometimes. Every single one every single time! Some do it by making their official measurement spot a bowl location that they know is a local max zone on the mountain. Others just flat out make up a number. But in 30 years of skiing having been in at least 30 snow events at 20 different resorts not once did any of them report the snowfall honestly. I was just at Killington last weekend and they got about 6” and reported 11. It’s just what they do.

Thanks "Mostly" Nostradamus

I have no idea what you're upset about... I was just pointing out how lucky it was that right after there was a dispute about it...that there just happened to be a new member who just joined who also just happened to be at Wintergreen so they could use their first posts ever to verify the ski resorts claim of an anomalously high amount of snow compared to everything around them even at similar elevations. What's controversial about those facts?

Wow kinda crazy how someone that just happened to be at WIntergreen just happened to join right now and their first post is about this. Crazy huh

thanks, and what would you suggest?

I meant the GFS. You said it’s not…ugh never mind

Yes I discovered it’s getting warmer. Right after Al Gore invented the internet.

It was south

No wait a minute… if he wants to give me credit for discovering it’s getting warmer…

I know it’s facetious but that 2014 storm it was in the mid 20s and it’s only warmed like 1/2 a degree since then. And the 2018 storm was even more recent and not really that borderline when the snow was falling.

Thanks Nostradamus

I wish that’s all that was wrong with him.

Right but the point is it was LESS WRONG then all the other models day 5-8 and so on a chart of verification scores it would look good.

But this point is actually a great example of what I meant by "when all we care about is how much snow falls in our yard it might not align with verification scores". Yes the AIFS had multiple runs in the day 5-8 range with HECS snowfall results for our area. But, those results were real, just displaced about 150 miles to the northeast. And no other model, at those ranges, were even close...the GFS didn't start showing those crazy snow totals until like day 4 out. So when compared to all the other models, which didn't have an HECS anywhere at all...the AIFS which had it but displaced a small amount too far southwest, the AIFS was by far the closest to the truth (the less wrong) model in the day 5-8 period. We look at them all wrong, in that we expect them to be exactly right at a range that there is almost no chance they will be. The AIFS showing a HECS somewhere in the northeast at all day 5-8 was a win for it...but we think it was wrong because the big snow ended up not over us.

Verification scores don't lie. However, when all we care about is how much snow ends up on our lawn, that doesn't always necessarily correlate to some hemispheric h5 or MSLP verification score! Also, sometimes we see a model leading the scores chart and think "that means it's right" when it really means it's slightly less wrong than the others.