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Newman

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    Fleetwood, PA

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  1. Newman

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    The MJO getting stuck in the warm phases was more so a counterpart to the QBO regime. The negative 50mb QBO delivered the SSW, however it also hightens the tropical forcing signal. Furthermore, the positive phase of the 30mb QBO didn't allow for full downwhelling of warmth, which would have allowed for better blocking and the introduction of easterlies. The SSW induced by the 50mb QBO also deposited colder tropospheric temperatures into the tropical regions, thus enhancing the MJO convection on top of the already enhanced MJO. The poor ENSO pattern favored the MJO to cycle through the warmer phases, rather than the colder ones.
  2. I typically just use Allentown as a baseline for average snowfall which is around 32". I don't know what the exact average is in my backyard.
  3. Never made it above freezing last night. Temp actually dropped from 31.5 to 30 around midnight. Lots of icing overnight. Roads are a mess and car is caked in ice. Probably the 3rd most impactful winter event this season.
  4. Temp is still around 32 but really not sure if any of the drizzle/mist is freezing. Final combined total is 2.75". Brings the yearly total to 18.75". Just need a couple more nickel and dime events or a solid MECS to get me to normal.
  5. Most stations in southwestern Berks are around 31-32 while northeastern Berks is 28-29. I'm currently at 29 and sleet/Freezing rain mix. I just went outside and trees/car windshields are finally starting to get some ice accretion. Measured 1.75" of snow/sleet accumulation.
  6. Newman

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    I get that this winter has sucked for you, but wow you have really gone off the deep end with these pessimistic posts.
  7. SUMMARY...A wintry precipitation mix will persist into the afternoon across the northeast states. Mostly freezing rain is expected from central to southeast PA with rates from .03 to locally .1 inch per hour. From southern NY to southeast NY and northern NJ, areas of moderate to heavy snow should transition to freezing rain toward noon or by early afternoon. Farther north from east central NY into northern CT, western MA and southern VT, areas of mostly moderate to heavy snow are expected. DISCUSSION...A large, mature winter storm is in progress over portions of the northeast states. Surface low will deepen over MI within zone of strong forcing for ascent accompanying a progressive shortwave trough. This process will result in a strengthening (60+ kt) southerly low-level jet shifting northward through PA, NY and southern New England later this morning into the afternoon. The interaction of the low level jet with the east-west oriented baroclinic zone will augment isentropic ascent, promoting a continued northeast expansion of the precipitation area. Bands of moderate to heavy snow promoted by an increase in frontogenetic forcing will develop northeast with time through central and eastern NY. While farther south from southern NY, northeast PA into northern NJ and southern CT, increasing warm advection along low-level jet corridor will contribute to northward advance of the melting layer aloft, eventually resulting in a transition from snow to sleet and freezing rain. Precipitation should remain freezing rain across central and southern PA this morning.
  8. For far northern zones, precip remains as snow, but the snow/sleet freezing rain line continues to creep to the north. Snow totals remain in the 2-4" to 3-5" range for Lehigh Valley, NW NJ, and southern Poconos. Ice accumulations will be a bigger threat, with isolated ice amounts of 0.50" or more, but think up to 0.25" will be the story elsewhere.
  9. Yeah this is going to be a complete sleet storm here. No freezing rain. No snow. All sleet. Temp locked in so far at 26.
  10. HRRR freezing rain accumulation through 6pm:
  11. Crazy I'm 26 and not a hint of a snowflake. In a bit of a lull but precip about to come in. Those further east really using the lower dews to their advantage right now.
  12. Newman

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    These would get me to right around normal:
  13. Yep I went from 27 to 25 now with precip entering. No snow just sleet here.
  14. I think we will get a heavy slug of snow, sleet, and freezing rain from 7am to about 4 or 5pm when a lull of some sort might come through. Then the backside comes through with plain rain.
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