Newman

Chilly start to October? The trough in the east doesn't look too transient to be honest, it looks to stay around for a bit...

Should mention KRDG recorded a daily record low minimum of 38 yesterday

Yeah no record lows will be set tonight probably, but forecast lows of 39/40 while the records are 36/37 is impressive. Much below normal

Just got Sub-tropical storm Alpha form off Portugal lol. The gulf storm looks like it'll be Beta...

Can't wait to wake up in the low 40s Sunday

Low of 53 tonight with a dew point of 48? Yes please, bring on Fall

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop from northern Virginia into northern Maryland and southeast Pennsylvania by 21-22Z. A few supercells capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes will be the main threats. A tornado watch will likely be needed prior to 21Z. DISCUSSION...As of mid afternoon a progressive vorticity maximum was situated over southwestern PA and will continue east into the Middle Atlantic region during the late afternoon and evening. A band of low-topped convection has already developed in association with this feature extending into northern WV where instability is limited. Farther downstream, a lee trough resides just east of the central and southern Appalachian mountains. East of this feature temperatures have warmed to the upper 80s F with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s contributing to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE despite very weak mid-level lapse rates resulting from warm temperatures aloft. As the corridor of deeper ascent attending the shortwave trough continues east and begins to overtake the western edge of the moist warm sector, additional storms will likely develop from northern VA into southeast PA. Winds in the 850-500 mb layer will undergo a modest increase with approach of the impulse, resulting in 35-40 kt effective bulk shear and 100-200 m2/s2 storm relative helicity. This environment should be sufficient for some organized storm structures including a few supercells capable of locally strong to damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes through early evening.

Parts of the first half of September look to be below normal temps finally. Can we buy a similar look in 3-4 months?

Enhanced risk of severe wind tomorrow

11:30 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 Location: 25.0°N 87.4°W Moving: NNW at 14 mph Min pressure: 992 mb Max sustained: 75 mph

Power is out. Still raining. My station is down now but definitely over 4" of rain. Started the day slow but made it up in a hurry

Heavy driving rain. Worst of the storm occurring right now

Currently a Met major at Millersville myself, Horst is a local legend. Knows his stuff very well. Back on topic, will be exciting to read through this sub-forum later. Hoping y'all have fun.

Some good flooding occurring here too. Dumping rain.