Newman

Guys, the old GFS is completely on it's own now. EURO/UKMET/ICON/CMC/NEW GFS all landfall down into SC/NC. In fact the EPS members coming in right now are all into SC or NC as well. Could we get some gusty remnants later on? Sure. But a landfall north of the OBX is looking very unlikely at this point. Good luck to North Carolina on this one. The coastline is going to get destroyed by the MH force winds and inland will get 10-20" of rain. Insane really.

I haven't posted here much summer cause nothing has warranted me to. However, the flooding today in and around Berks County is incredible. Ponds and streams everywhere overflowing their banks and now making new streams and ponds. In other news, Joe Bastardi is calling for an epic winter. Already getting his unbearable and unneeded hype up for the winter season.

The evening has turned beautiful.

Here in Berks not as bad as it could have been. Probably 45-55mph gusts with dime sized hail.

Mod Risk for NE PA. 60% for winds!

Here is a sounding for tomorrow in Berks County before the storms roll through.

The first real severe "threat" of the year. I'm hoping the warm front lifts north in time but I've seen these type of setups go both ways.

Snow flurries falling here.

Half inch last night. Bring on hail, tornadoes, and wind.

Car tops and grass coated. Last snow on a great winter.

This is obviously coming north. The warmth in the south this time of year is underplayed right now by the models and will catch up closer to Saturday. This will bring higher heights up the EC. Also, this isn't entirely a SWFE, but it has characteristics of one and all SWFE this season came north.

For the potential weekend storm, the northern TPV wave that is supplying the cold air has trended much stronger recently. This is suppressing the flow way too south. We need a good balance of the Friday clipper-like system to be strong enough to provide a fresh shot of "cold" air (it isn't frigid but good enough for April) but not too strong to force everything south and pull the baroclinic zone well off shore. Also, the southern wave energy has basically vanished but I'm positive it'll show up again soon in the shorter range guidance. I think this storm has a legit chance for a SECS area wide, MECS for April standards.

Storm total 5.25" here. I'm ready to call it a winter. Need some severe weather tracking and golf.

I'd go 2-4" area wide on grassy surfaces with perhaps 5" localized if rates are heavy enough, leaning towards the lower end. Either way, snow in April doesn't come too often (although it's been happening a bit more frequently) and should be enjoyed. No shoveling will need to be done because the sun will vaporize it in an hour.