Jump to content

Newman

Members
  • Content count

    873
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About Newman

Profile Information

  • Location:
    Fleetwood, PA

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. Newman

    2019 ENSO

    August PDO data: 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z 0.66 2019-02-01T00:00:00Z 0.46 2019-03-01T00:00:00Z 0.37 2019-04-01T00:00:00Z 1.07 2019-05-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 2019-06-01T00:00:00Z 1.09 2019-07-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 2019-08-01T00:00:00Z 0.38 August AMO data: 2017 0.222 0.224 0.164 0.280 0.311 0.305 0.299 0.307 0.347 0.430 0.349 0.361 2018 0.170 0.059 0.129 0.061 -0.004 -0.014 0.015 0.110 0.159 0.141 -0.124 -0.063 2019 -0.018 0.078 0.118 0.121 0.085 0.171 0.349 0.335
  2. Newman

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    18z GEFS. More than half at least skim the Florida coast with a landfall.
  3. Newman

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    That was a noticeable shift west on the GFS. One more shift of the same magnitude and we're talking potential Florida landfall again. Regardless, the FL coast still sees impacts this run.
  4. Newman

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    As stated by some, the western flank weakened a bit this morning but new convection has wrapped around
  5. Newman

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    New cane models
  6. Newman

    2019 ENSO

    ENSO 3.4 continues to dive: ENSO 4 is as well with plenty of easterly wind bursts nearing 180W:
  7. Newman

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    I like spaghettimodels.com for all tropical weather related content. The page updates everything on its own.
  8. Newman

    2019 ENSO

    From 2009, talking about changing global circulations including Hadley Cell/Mid-Latitude Cell disruptions, etc.: http://www.inscc.utah.edu/~reichler/publications/papers/Reichler_09_Widening.pdf
  9. Newman

    E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2019 OBS Thread

    Just broke 90 here in Reading so it has now become an official heat wave.
  10. Newman

    2019 ENSO

  11. Newman

    E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2019 OBS Thread

    Definitely not fake lol. Reading has reported 88, 92, 90 the past 3 days. The dews have definitely been lower than they were back during the heat of July however. Instead of high 70s dews, we got high 60s dews.
  12. Newman

    2019 ENSO

    Courtesy to Isotherm, he and I had a small conversation on the disruption of the global jet stream patterns due to the emergence of changing Hadley Cell and Mid-Latitude Cell circulations. As SSTs continue to warm poleward due to the background state and changing climate, we see more convection which acts to disrupt the typical Hadley Cell circulations we know. Typically we see rising air at the ITCZ which spreads poleward and subsides around 30N which creates the Horse Latitudes. With convection being able to fire further north, the Hadley Cell circulations expand which create stronger gradients and subsequently strengthen the mid-Latitude cells. For the United States, that means the Pacific Jet stream becomes stronger. What I mean as "this isn't new" is the warmth of the Pacific and overall global oceans. We've seen warmth of our oceans for awhile now. However, are we finally entering the critical time where we truly do start to see global jet stream changes? Are winters going to be the same again? Or will we see more variability resulting in bigger and more extreme winter events? Have we already seen those changes? I don't know the answers to those questions, but I do know that in theory the global jet stream patterns should be or have already changed in the changing climate.
×