Newman

Deck pic my dad sent me this morning from back home in Fleetwood. 2" on the car, 1.5" on the measuring board.

Could not agree more. I'm very active on other NYC centered forums but it's tough with the clear bias. Here many of us experience the same weather and it would be great to talk more but it's not worth my time if there's only like 5 or 6 total members that post here lol.

Snow showers tonight

EURO!!!

Got sleet here in Fleetwood too

The mesos and models now having the low stall immediately on the coast is the best case scenario for inland counties possibly including Berks. I could see the Berks area see anywhere from 0" to 6" tomorrow. The Inverted trough feature will be a nowcast event.

There will be a real sharp cutoff somewhere with this one. Unfortunately Berks seems to be in the cross-hairs for the cutoff. The Ukie and Euro look good, the CMC, GFS, RGEM, NAM, etc. not the greatest for our area. I'm just trying to figure out when I want to drive back to school Sunday. Icy start to the day.

You bet

Snowing very nicely in Millersville. Roads are wet but decent coatings on grassy surfaces.

I think many here would take this and run with it for Tuesday. An inch or 2 followed by frigid cold to keep it around.

Good stuff Ralph. Don't take this as a post trying to steal your spotlight. Just trying to share some thoughts. Anyway, I would think a PV split is most likely to occur later on in the winter, as the QBO would have descended enough into the easterly phases which support such a thing occurring. It could still occur even without a favorable QBO, however. But the progression of the QBO is admittedly not occurring as fast as I had hoped. Save for a miraculous uptick (which is very much possible), the QBO might not be too much of a factor this year. That's fine though. Last year it's something that helped kill us. The ENSO is in an overall favorable look - Cooler ENSO regions 1.2 and 3. Regions 3.4 and 4 much warmer. It's very much a Modoki look. A warm Atlantic/AMO is still evident in the data sets and SST maps. The PDO is actually cooling off a bit with the NP warm blob starting to regress to the west a bit south of the Aleutians. What I fear the most this winter is actually what we've got potentially in store for us next week. The ridge out west is just a bit too far west, aided by the warmer SST's a bit further west. We've actually been stuck in a +TNH pattern for a while now which supports my analog set as well. Cold dumps into the central states and Great Lakes, the SE ridge tries to pop, and you get cold before and after each storm, but as the storm comes in the trough axis is just a bit too far west. Now, I've been delving into this upcoming winter since July/August and have stuck with this SST composite and 500mb composite since September. I don't see any reason to change now. As I mentioned above, the cold will be there I believe with the mean trough centered across the central states and Great Lakes. The question is how does it modulate when storms come through? With no HL blocking, you can bet App runners and coastal screamers will be a real threat. Kinda like this upcoming Tuesday/Wednesday storm. It's a battle between the Ridge/Trough orientations, WAR, and incoming cold press. If HL blocking does commence this winter, I truly believe it's off to the races. The Pacific is favorable enough for there to be some hope.

Not sure if some of y'all have seen, but Pivotal Weather now has free Hi-res ECMWF maps. Snowfall, precip type, and all. And in 6 hour intervals, not 24 hours. Just keep in mind for this winter. Sample:

Just a heads up, Pivotal Weather now has free Hi-res ECMWF weather maps, including snowfall, precip type, etc. And it goes in 6 hour intervals, not 24 hours.

I'm not going to pout and complain that it's only late October/Early November BUT if this look can materialize and hold for steady periods throughout the 2019-20 winter, we will be looking at plenty of snow opportunities. Ridge/Trough axis is nearly perfect (perhaps a smidge too far west), high latitude blocking over the top, trough north of Hawaii.... great look. Again, if I had to release an official analog map right now, I'd throw this one out there. And it has similarities to the map above. The difference is just the ridge orientation out west. That affects the trough orientation in the east downstream. But anyway, is it premature to say a 500mb pattern in late October will stick around for 4-5 months? Holy crap yes. You'd have to be a new level of stupid to think you've got a sure-thing touchdown right now. But if we can get stuck in this pattern with the occasional thaw/warm-up? Then it's all-aboard the hype train. Either way its nice to be thinking about winter early this year rather than later.

Getting to be that time of year where we look at the source region. Ridge in SE Canada will funnel down the Northeast flow.