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Newman

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Everything posted by Newman

  1. There is nothing in the next 2 to 3 weeks that would suggest we see snow, especially Philly SE but even NW burbs too. Ugly look for awhile
  2. Take a look at the upper air differences between the GFS and Euro. That energy coming down from Manitoba is the 12/6 event we're tracking. But most importantly, look at the confluence and energy over the northeast at hour 144. Completely different look, and heights are a lot lower over the east on the Euro due to the confluence. This doesn't allow for heights to build in time and, verbatim, the Euro is a clipper redeveloper that crushes New England. In a fast Nina flow that we have, surprises and changes will be the common story. Lots of small mood flake events in this fast flow with some occasional nice surprises when things line up correctly Euro: GFS:
  3. Actually have a fine dusting on the cars and cold surfaces
  4. Some small flurries occasionally here too
  5. That's very surprising considering mping snow reports coming from Lebanon, Harrisburg, and Manheim. Still waiting to hear if it's snowing down in Lanco yet too
  6. Looks like some mping snow reports coming in from York around Hanover and near Carlise too
  7. Would love to hear some reports from y'all as the snow heads east, for anyone who will be awake to see it lol. Looks like the radar isn't as paltry as some of the short range guidance was suggesting
  8. KU is Kocin-Ucellini... check out the "Northeast Snowstorms" book by them. We call historical snowstorms KU's sometimes
  9. Something really interesting I wanted to share... the October 2021 averaged PDO index value came out to -2.55. In the entire PDO historical data set dating back to 1900, that's the most negative it's ever been since 1961. In fact, in the entire data set which takes monthly values, there's only ever been around 9 months across the past 121 years that have had a lower negative PDO value. That means 9 out of 1,450 months
  10. I'd totally be down, however it would depend on the extensiveness of the details inside. A localized "KU" climatology book would be awesome, but if it's just surface details and doesn't get into the meat of each event I would pass.
  11. Yes I am very much involved with the MU Weather Information Center forecasts and what not, but I did not have any say in what Kyle Elliott was doing with the winter forecast. His general reasoning, however, is 2nd year Nina's with the SST regime we're in are close in similarity to 2011-12 and 2017-18. The MJO will likely spend the most time as well in the unfavorable phases due to the SST pattern. The biggest wild card, as he mentioned in his bullet points, is the chance for high latitude blocking. The QBO is in a strong easterly (negative) phase right now which favors blocking. There's a lot to consider in a winter like the one coming up, I'm glad I don't have to release any official forecasts myself! I think a 22-27" snowfall winter is reasonable
  12. 12z Ukmet is a crusher for much of Philly east
  13. Widespread 2-4", especially for eastern areas. It's gonna be a rainy Tuesday and early Wednesday
  14. Through Saturday dews shouldn't get above 50F with highs staying in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Lows should be in the mid-upper 40s for the burbs, low 50s for the city. Finally some incredible weather!
  15. Oh I'm aware, I watch just as much Philly sports as I'm sure you do. Although, I was admittedly a Ben apologist. Thought more of him than I should have.
  16. There's some interesting features with that cell/line in Chester. Almost like a really small MCV trying to form. You can get a brief spin up with these QLCS type events, especially today with the high SRH, moderate Bulk Shear, and low LCLs
  17. Yes indeed, personally I am in favor of this change. I need some cooler weather soon
  18. 30s and wet snow in September anyone?
  19. Amazing pic! My sister in Shillington sent a similar pic to me too. I had an evening class so couldn't see the shelf cloud in person, but similar views down here in Lanco from what I heard.
  20. Regarding #2, remember that our EF scale is dependent on damage assessment. Is there any chance infrastructure has improved enough to cause this "decrease" in strong tornadoes? Or is there something else going on? Just a thought that came to mind. I chased the Mullica Hill NJ tornado two weeks ago, saw the damage up close and in-person, and was almost certain the NWS would've classified it as an EF4 but alas they didn't (only EF3). Is there any literature or data you can send me that supports your 2nd statement?
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