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Everything posted by Newman
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Even more incredible Aurora up here tonight. No edits at all, captured on my Google Pixel cell phone with 4 minute exposure time. 8:28pm north of Laramie
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..CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON HAS FALLEN TO A NEAR RECORD LOW... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS... 7:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 Location: 21.9°N 90.4°W Moving: E at 10 mph Min pressure: 897 mb Max sustained: 180 mph
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We still haven't hit 32 at the Laramie AP this fall, which has broken our record for the latest first freeze on record (previous record October 4th).
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Advisories will be issued starting at 10am CDT on soon to be Milton
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...HELENE NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... 6:20 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 Location: 28.0°N 84.5°W Moving: NNE at 23 mph Min pressure: 947 mb Max sustained: 130 mph
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That closed off shortwave sliding underneath/through the region should be enough to give some solid snows to the higher elevations
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A cutoff trough will dip down into the region early this week. Low temps Tuesday/Wednesday night in Harrisburg are forecasted to reach around 53° by the NWS, though some models including the GFS dip the LSV into the upper 40s with clear skies. As a note, Harrisburg proper hasn't dipped as low as 53° in August since 2013. And it also hasn't gotten into the 40s in August since 1987. Williamsport is forecasted to reach the upper 40s, which last happened in August in 2013 as well.
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The atmosphere is basically cooked now with these training storms and BL overturning. So that will be running into a stable environment. It's got some strong effective bulk shear and helicity to work with, which may help with some organization, but I don't think that'll be able to overcome the stability. Lots more rain from it though across the LSV. Maybe some gusty 50mph winds with any outflow. With the ridge in the Atlantic and trough in the north central plains trending Debby to stay further west once it makes it's second landfall, I could see the CPA (along with CNY) taking the brunt of the rain. WPC has been shifting things slowly further west as well. This rain today certainly will not help with flooding concerns.
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I wouldn't want to be an AT thru hiker in Virginia right now, I bet water sources are scarce
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Solid storm with a tornado warning heading right up into Wellsboro
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Those cells up in NW Clinton County are starting to get some good hooks on them
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Was actually just talking to my buddy in Leesburg and were discussing the low water levels across much of northern VA. Dark red dots indicate <10% percentile of river/stream/creek gauge levels. Bright red indicate record lows for this date
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The big heat out west will make it's way east over the rocky mountain area later this week and weekend. Both Laramie and Cheyenne WY will approach their all time record highs of 94° and 100° respectively, we'll see if afternoon clouds inhibit any attempt at breaking these records
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https://x.com/mcfrsPIO/status/1798524345481904229
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2024 OBS/Discussion
Newman replied to Hurricane Agnes's topic in Philadelphia Region
Absolutely, double win here. Snow and cold, and the northern lights -
E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2024 OBS/Discussion
Newman replied to Hurricane Agnes's topic in Philadelphia Region
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Mountain West Discussion- cool season '23-24
Newman replied to mayjawintastawm's topic in Central/Western States
Anyone know how much snow might be on the ground NW of Fort Collins around Greyrock Summit (Poudre Park)? Looking at hiking that Monday, but want to be sure trail conditions are decent enough and not like 2 feet of snow -
Dad said we got about 9" in Fleetwood, biggest storm in quite some time. 2021 was the last double digit snow I even remember
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Berks and Lehigh counties look to be in the best spot for this as of now. Probably start as some brief rain, unlike those in Carbon/Monroe counties. But the strongest banding and snowfall rates will slide through south of the Poconos for the longest duration. 6-10" thump in that area
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Latest 12z GFS with yet another shift south. Sounding provided is for SE PA valid at 12z tomorrow morning. Fully saturated through the DGZ with maximum omega as well. It's going to thump around the morning commute, easily 1-2"+ rates for a time. Even though it's a quick moving storm, some places will see over 6" with rates that heavy for a time
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Newman replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
Euro is quite a paint job for the Lehigh Valley -
Dad said we got about 3.2" in Fleetwood. Happy for y'all further south towards Philly, its been a long time coming! Made me smile seeing Philly come in with 5"