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Newman

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Everything posted by Newman

  1. Newman
    That confluence actually ends up quite a bit further south on the 18z NAM. But the vort itself seems to be more potent and juiced up and that northern confluence almost tries to phase into the backside of our upper-level shortwave trough. So it kicks up the heights ahead of our storm just a bit as it's passing through, which helps to increase positive vorticity advection and hence we see that secondary surface low spawn as it slides east associated with the vort pass.
  2. Newman
    One thing to note is the orientation of the vort lobe north of Maine plays as much a factor as the strength of it, if not more. The models showing that in a zonal W -> E orientation allow it to squash heights much more effectively. Those that keep it more NW -> SE oriented (i.e. the recent 12z GFS) allow for *just* enough space for our system to amplify to get appreciable snows into SE PA
  3. Newman
    The 3" line all the way up to Easton is actually pretty bullish right now
  4. Newman
    Here's a comparison of the early 0z runs. The Canadian trended slightly stronger with our vort, but it's still positively tilted and not closed off. The GFS and ICON, however, close it off and slide it under the region. The timing is almost identical, and the confluence is lifted far enough north on almost all models to leave room for this to come north. The difference comes down to how potent the shortwave is and if it turns neutral or even negatively tilted
  5. Newman
    You could tell early on this GFS run was gonna be near perfect for eastern PA and NJ. Just a beautiful H5 look
  6. Newman
    ICON is a shellacking for much of the Mount Holly CWA, especially for Philly proper. 0.5" of QPF up to ABE, 0.8" down to RDG, and PHL with 1", presumably all as snow. That shortwave has been trending more and more potent on guidance. ICON keeps it as a closed off upper-level vort basically until WV until the confluence does it's job opening it up. But the damage is done at that point. Seems like a classic squeeze play between strong confluence to the north and a potent shortwave sliding through to the south. I'm supposed to be working on writing my Masters thesis this week but this dang system has been keeping me distracted, and I don't even live in SE PA anymore lol.
  7. Newman
    Wasn't there that surprise storm in February(?) with the intense fronto death band that dropped nearly a foot across eastern Berks and Montgomery County? Definitely not a region wide event, but I think that happened for my folk in Fleetwood last year. Speaking of fronto bands, the 18z NAM is showing that 850mb fronto band as MGorse was mentioning for tomorrow's sneaky event. Seems like quite the dynamic environment with steep llvl lapse rates
  8. Newman
    Just your typical stratospheric intrusion down to 550-600mb or so lol
  9. Newman
    Around 2.5" on the back deck, but more like 1.5" on the measuring board. So we'll go with ~2" here in Fleetwood
  10. Newman
    Visiting the fam back in Fleetwood for Christmas, just went out and measured 1" on the snow board. Was honestly expecting more from the other reports around the region, must be some melting going on. Will go out and measure when it's all done here
  11. Newman
    Another 2" or so fell this morning and last night in Laramie, puts us at about 5-6" on the season
  12. Newman
    Just a heads up, Tropical Tidbits finally added more features for the ECMWF. The recent upgrade of the Euro also takes it out to 360 hours
  13. Newman
    Our first single digit low of the season here in Laramie overnight, got to 3 degrees with a wind chill into the negatives
  14. Newman
    KRDG and KABE both broke daily record highs today. 84 at Reading thus far and 82 at Allentown. Mount Pocono and Trenton also broke their daily records, PHL and KILG tied or close.
  15. Newman
  16. Newman
    Watching what could be our first snowfall in the Laramie valley this week around Wednesday. Upper level trough digs into the West Coast and ejects across the front range/Rockies, spawning lee cyclogenesis. Question becomes how amplified this trough gets, with the Euro/Canadian advertising a deeper trough that allows positive vorticity advection in a favorable location south of Wyoming, and thus cyclogenesis across Colorado. Meanwhile the GFS is less aggressive and swings the energy through SE WY which would bring just rain and dry slotting.
  17. Newman
    KABE has only seen 0.01" of precip so far this month, for reference the record low for October precip at KABE is 0.15" back in 1963. Before this year, there have only been 4 years in the KABE record with October's less than 1" of precipitation. The Euro and GFS are consistent with showing a weak cold front moving through next weekend which may or may not break the current record. The Euro is most aggressive, the GFS weakens it for perhaps some sprinkles. Either way, I would be shocked if Allentown ends up with more than an inch of rain this month, or even a half inch for that matter. The KRDG records don't extend as far back as KABE, but the previous record at Reading is 0.71" in 2001. In Trenton, also 2001 with 0.51". At KPHL, 1963 is also the record like Allentown when only 0.09" of precip fell in October. All of these locations have 0.02" or less of precip this month.
  18. Newman
    Was checking KRDG climate data this morning and, going back two months to August 13th, only 1.37" of precip has been recorded there which is close to the 1886 record of 1.17". For reference, the average during this stretch is 9.3". Euro and GFS ensembles are pretty adamant on a cold/dry and warm/dry pattern setting up, with any cool spells bringing in a dry NW flow, and then a subsequent upper level ridge setting up shop. Not really anything exciting to point out looking ahead.
  19. Newman
    Figured I'd drop some of the aurora pics I got tonight out here. Maybe not the brightest Aurora I've ever seen, but definitely the highest in the sky. The pillars stretched above zenith at times
  20. Newman
    From my experience, on a more "normal" night of geomagnetic activity the "recharge" usually lasts 2-2.5 hours and then the spike back up is a quick 5-10 minute burst. Tonight isn't normal, we're talking very variable and chaotic conditions with the magnetic field strength. So from experience, I would say maybe around 10:30-11 there *could* be the next substorm. But it all changes in real time. I took this time lapse here earlier this week, which happened right during a substorm. Otherwise, the colors were mostly muted before and after this. PXL_20241008_022847432.NIGHT.mp4
  21. Newman
    Space Weather geek here: that huge burst of aurora was due to an auroral "substorm" that often occurs, we will likely see more through the night. You can track here at the GOES magnetometer site the strength of the parallel component of the Earth's magnetic field. I will explain why that's important below this... https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer Basically, what happens is the Earth's magnetosphere (more specifically it's magnetotail) gets stretched and then subsequently rubber bands back and releases the built up energy. When it rubber bands back, that produces the bursts of Aurora. They usually occur every 2-3 hours. On that website, you can time the substorms by looking at the large down spikes, that indicates the aurora is "charging up". Then when it spikes back up, that means it releases the energy in a beautiful aurora display. I would recommend changing the tab to 6 hours to get a close up view of what the magnetometer is measuring. All of this to say... You might have to wait another 2 hours or so for the bright views to come back! They come in waves and that's just the nature of these things. But it's cool, you can actually predict Aurora substorms and bright views.
  22. Newman
    Space Weather geek here: that huge burst of aurora was due to an auroral "substorm" that often occurs, we will likely see more through the night. You can track here at the GOES magnetometer site the strength of the parallel component of the Earth's magnetic field. I will explain why that's important below this... https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer Basically, what happens is the Earth's magnetosphere (more specifically it's magnetotail) gets stretched and then subsequently rubber bands back and releases the built up energy. When it rubber bands back, that produces the bursts of Aurora. They usually occur every 2-3 hours. On that website, you can time the substorms by looking at the large down spikes, that indicates the aurora is "charging up". Then when it spikes back up, that means it releases the energy in a beautiful aurora display. I would recommend changing the tab to 6 hours to get a close up view of what the magnetometer is measuring. All of this to say... You might have to wait another 2 hours or so for the bright views to come back! They come in waves and that's just the nature of these things. But it's cool, you can actually predict Aurora substorms and bright views.
  23. Newman
    Sister in Reading just took this! Get out you guys!
  24. Newman
    Overhead Aurora in CT https://x.com/Vincent_Ledvina/status/1844517855452332258
  25. Newman
    Tropicana Field aftermath https://twitter.com/Ry_Bass/status/1844367980249178396
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