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Everything posted by Newman
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Oh totally, it literally rotates in a firehose of supercells off the ocean and has 6"/hour rates for hours over NJ. Reasonable local lolli will probably be more in the 30-34" range
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It's insane. Somehow the NAM keeps upping itself each run.
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Toms River NJ, 32.5
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21z SREFs coming in more tucked/amped. Should mean NAM holds serve at 0z.
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Sleep now because you won't be sleeping tomorrow night
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Don't be concerned, what happens will happen. For all we know western Berks could end up in the deformation band and eastern Berks in subsidence. I'd feel the same way if I was still in Fleetwood. The tracking is just as fun to me and we'll get to witness a historic storm for some within the subforum
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The gradient being depicted across Berks County has been consistent and crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere like Bernville gets 6" and Boyertown 16".
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Top 3 NESIS storm on the NAM. You dump 2-3 feet from Philly to Boston you're rivaling 93 and 96
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You still going 5-10" for Philly?
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This is going to be one hell of a storm y'all, easily Top 5 for some and some near the Jersey coast may even see their largest storm ever. Enjoy it and savor it, I will be living vicariously through all of y'all
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Widespread winter storm warnings now in effect, blizzard warnings for the coast. Berks and Lehigh Valley are 8-16". 14-18 for Philly, 20-24 for Jersey coast under Blizzard Warning
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Ukie looks good, coming into alignment here. This would honestly be my "base" snow map as far as spatial coverage of heaviest snows
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Yeah GFS is a tick east but it's just noise at this point. There will be a deep 700mb fronto band on the NW side of this thing that models will not pin down at all. Right now the meso models/GFS have Berks, Lehigh, Northampton, Chester as the far western edge of that. It could be east of that, or west. There will be a sharp cutoff
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Very much agree, these h500 tick improvements are more important than surface output
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RGEM continues to be unenthused in truly tucking and stalling the low into the coast. The mid-level lows close off just a bit too late and it scoots ENE quicker. It may also be chasing the convection to the east
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This is again where you go and bring up the Top 5-10 all time lists
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NAM is a significant increase in totals for Berks and the Lehigh Valley. 12-18" for everyone. Philly and Jersey 2-3 feet. Actually there might be more coming...
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Agreed, they'll probably go 8-12". Might even see 10-14
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NAM coming in even more amped, heights higher and cleaner phase. Here we go
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HRRR develops an eyewall
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Long range 12z HRRR is just insane, wow
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