Newman

GEFS mean snowfall. Yes, ensemble MEAN.

GFS mega band at 10pm Sunday. This run is gonna be insane!

If you look at the H5 and H7 tracks/pivot compared to th NAM, it's barely different at all. It's just banding differences and it seems like to me the RGEM is struggling with the precip output.

Here comes the GFS...

ICON!!!

0z FV3 GFS is absolutely insane

GFS is just a huge crusher

Entire state of Jersey is 18-36" on thar run, unreal!

18z NAM already looking much more amped

I know the High End snow maps can seem like weenie bait, but as an EM met they are crucial for communicating POTENTIAL impacts. In EM, we always prepare for or are staged to respond to the worst case scenario. You never want to be caught with your fly down

Mount Holly 90th percentile (i.e. reasonable worst case scenario)

Maybe a bit bold, but I told my family in Berks and Lehigh to expect 5-8" right now. I think 3-5" is safe, but I'm thinking there could be an outer fringe 700mb fronto band that surprises. Dual band type of precip shield. Would feel even more comfortable if I was NW of 95 if the closed 700 mb low passage was tucked closer to the coast. My fear is this tries to slip east last second just based on past PTSD lol

Ukie with a massive shift west, gets 6-8" to Philly, 12-16" locally along the Jersey coast. 2-5" back to the Lehigh Valley

GEFS gonna be unchanged mostly for Philly SE, but the orientation of the more SW to NE precip shield is being reflected across the Lehigh Valley where the gradient is tighter. Probably just noise, I guess we'll see. MSLP low placements actually ticked west quite a bit on the GEFS at 12z. And I'm referring to MEAN Total QPF, so honestly there may have just been a rogue member that rained to I-95 that got removed this run

GFS is gonna score it's biggest coup ever here. I mean I just don't see how it doesn't at this point. 12z GFS: The trough is actually more amplified so the storm initially develops a touch further south. It tucks, but the occlusion process takes it a smidge further east this run which is why parts of the Lehigh Valley get lower totals overall (still 8-12"). The initial jet enhanced precip is also less expansive and has been trending less on the GFS, which also keeps totals lower further NW. Nitpicking here though, mostly just noise. Whichever areas get the most snow is dependent on the very fine scale phasing that occurs that we won't know for another day.

Ha sorry, busy at work Double tasking PA and FL weather today

Just a reminder that each subforum will be looking for different trends with this one. Mid-Atlantic is looking for a quicker tilt negative/stacking of the low vs NYC or New England that want a later tilt and later maturation of the low. Our subforum I think is probably in the best spot

12z ICON tuck right off of Delmarva. Delaware and Jersey getting shellacked at hr66

NAM shatters Delaware's all-time state snowfall records by ALOT lol. Unreal run for them, winds gusting to 40-50 mph as well.

The GFS feels like that very far western ensemble member that keeps giving you hope. Except this time, it hasn't budged while the eastern envelope has shifted closer towards it. We're narrowing the goal posts: the western post staying put and the eastern post shifting west. Usually we see a 50/50 compromise, maybe 40/60. This time maybe 25/75 or 20/80. It's just been unusual this go around seeing models move towards the GFS. Again, Delaware and coastal Jersey seem to be the place to be right now

The NAM tucks the low but closes it off/occludes it much further south along the Virginia coast. Probably just NAM doing NAM things

GEFS bump NW as expected