Newman

For NW burbs: the GFS has been ticking east with where the H7 low closes off and how fast it moves/slows down. The small ticks east with that is why areas further NW have been losing some QPF/snow. Again, we just don't know where that will set up right now and 8-16" throughout Berks and the Lehigh Valley is a good call based on current data. What will happen tomorrow is the precip shield will begin to blossom as the baroclinic leaf expands/PVA rotates into the coast with the trough tilting negative. I would not be surprised to see snow as far back as Pittsburgh. Then, as the mid-level lows close off, the larger precip shield will begin to collapse back towards central/eastern PA as the secondary circulation fronto bands rapidly develop. Also, there appears to be an IVT develop across Central PA. You will likely see a dual band structure with the coastal low: one closer to the coast with 850mb fronto and one further NW with 700mb fronto. There will inherently be some subsidence just outside of those bands. These bands will be rotating off the ocean from SE to NW. Who ever can catch the pivot point of either of those bands will score the jackpot. Even outside of those bands it will be snowing hard. Now one of the biggest differences between our models remains just how stalled out our surface low gets, and therefore how long those intense frontogenesis bands have time to rotate inland. The NAM remains the most amped outlier and tucks/stalls the system for hours, so these bands can extend much further inland. The RGEM is less amped and quicker, so the bands are quick to depart eastward. In summary, this has nothing to do with the storm track anymore. The differences really come down to how amplified and stacked these mid-level lows get.

RGEM is ummm, concerning

The RRFS would be fun if you're a Berks/Lehigh Valley weenie... 2-4" of snow only LOL. FV3-GFS also went east a bit... Not all of these NOAA meso models should at all be taken seriously though, they don't excel in large synoptic systems

Oh totally, it literally rotates in a firehose of supercells off the ocean and has 6"/hour rates for hours over NJ. Reasonable local lolli will probably be more in the 30-34" range

0z NAM. I've lost the words at this point, I mean this is just insane

It's insane. Somehow the NAM keeps upping itself each run.

Toms River NJ, 32.5

21z SREFs coming in more tucked/amped. Should mean NAM holds serve at 0z.

Sleep now because you won't be sleeping tomorrow night

Don't be concerned, what happens will happen. For all we know western Berks could end up in the deformation band and eastern Berks in subsidence. I'd feel the same way if I was still in Fleetwood. The tracking is just as fun to me and we'll get to witness a historic storm for some within the subforum

The gradient being depicted across Berks County has been consistent and crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere like Bernville gets 6" and Boyertown 16".

Top 3 NESIS storm on the NAM. You dump 2-3 feet from Philly to Boston you're rivaling 93 and 96

You still going 5-10" for Philly?

18z HRRR... Lost for words

This is going to be one hell of a storm y'all, easily Top 5 for some and some near the Jersey coast may even see their largest storm ever. Enjoy it and savor it, I will be living vicariously through all of y'all

Widespread winter storm warnings now in effect, blizzard warnings for the coast. Berks and Lehigh Valley are 8-16". 14-18 for Philly, 20-24 for Jersey coast under Blizzard Warning

Ukie looks good, coming into alignment here. This would honestly be my "base" snow map as far as spatial coverage of heaviest snows

Yeah GFS is a tick east but it's just noise at this point. There will be a deep 700mb fronto band on the NW side of this thing that models will not pin down at all. Right now the meso models/GFS have Berks, Lehigh, Northampton, Chester as the far western edge of that. It could be east of that, or west. There will be a sharp cutoff

Very much agree, these h500 tick improvements are more important than surface output

RGEM continues to be unenthused in truly tucking and stalling the low into the coast. The mid-level lows close off just a bit too late and it scoots ENE quicker. It may also be chasing the convection to the east

This is again where you go and bring up the Top 5-10 all time lists

NAM is a significant increase in totals for Berks and the Lehigh Valley. 12-18" for everyone. Philly and Jersey 2-3 feet. Actually there might be more coming...

Agreed, they'll probably go 8-12". Might even see 10-14

NAM coming in even more amped, heights higher and cleaner phase. Here we go

Not my gif, got this from somewhere else. But wow.