Newman

We will see how the warm pool south of Alaska progresses into the fall and winter, but it was certainly quite warm in July: Let's say that the warm pool doesn't migrate and/or lessen over the coming months, 2013-14 could be a semi-decent analog for the PDO/EPO region specifically:

New IRI/CPC ENSO probabilities have been posted: El Nino has ended: Here is what the July SST's looked like: The July AMO value finished at 0.350, up from 0.171 in June and the most positive AMO value since Dec 2017.

Correct going into 09-10 the QBO was in a rather strong easterly regime which bodes well for the high latitude regions. This year we will likely be transitioning from westerly to easterly. I saw a tweet that said the most probable and similar QBO analog year is 1995-96. Keep in mind last year's QBO transitioned easterly to westerly, this year will be the opposite.

The current look, featuring cooling in the east based regions of the ENSO with western regions remaining warmer. The PDO is positive with a warm pool south of Alaska, but not to the extent of 2013-14 obviously. A cold pool east of Newfoundland in the Atlantic with warm waters immediately south of Greenland.

Thanks to some help from another forum, I found the 2003-04 winter and it looks like a semi-decent analog right now. We were coming off a prior El Nino winter, ENSO turned weak Nino/Neutral for the winter, Positive PDO, Positive AMO, and there was low solar activity. I expect all of the same for this upcoming winter. However, the summer of 2003 transitioned into a neutral phase much quicker than what is currently forecasted for this summer/fall/winter. I would throw in 2004-05 in case we remain more El Nino, rather than completely neutral. I like 2004's QBO transition into winter as well. It's much better than 2003 and it's close to what I think we could see this winter. A later transition of the QBO could yield later stratospheric impacts deep into winter (February and March, but things like that are fickle and require other variables to look at). 2004-05 also had a warm Atlantic and low solar, but not as warm of a Pacific. 1966-67 is a solid analog with regards to the positive ONI values maintaining closer toward fall/winter. And in case we go more Nina/neutral, it's even greater. I thought about 1959-60 as well. That winter was very very similar to 2003-04 with a transition to neutral much quicker than what is expected this year. It was coming off a weaker El Nino, +AMO, +PDO, low-ish solar activity. But again, the QBO went easterly to westerly during the winter. I like a 2003/1959 winter looking at a warm Atlantic, a fairly warm Pacific, weak El Nino/Neutral ENSO, lower solar, and then throw in a similar QBO progression seen entering the 2004-05 winter with a switch from westerly to easterly and a later transition from weak El Nino to neutral conditions seen in 1966-67 and you have something like this: Obviously, be aware there is more to a winter than just the variables I pointed out. AAM tendencies, the NAO background state, etc. all are important variables among others. Last year we got killed with a Pacific that would not slow down. We'll see how the Pacific cooperates this year. A lousy Pacific is always more concerning over a lousy Atlantic pattern. I'm excited for fall and the introduction of winter to see what we got on our hands this year.

I've just started to look towards what this winter may deliver, and 2003-04 seems like a strong analog. It was coming off a prior El Nino winter, it was mainly weak Nino/Neutral during the winter, it had a positive PDO, positive AMO, and low solar activity. However, the summer of 2003 transitioned into a neutral phase much quicker than what is currently forecasted for this summer/fall/winter. I would throw in 2004-05 in case we remain more El Nino, rather than completely neutral. I like 2004's QBO transition into winter as well. It's much better than 2003 and it's close to what I think we could see this winter. A later transition of the QBO could yield later stratospheric impacts deep into winter (February and March, but things like that are fickle and require other variables to look at). 2004-05 also had a warm Atlantic and low solar, but not as warm of a Pacific. 1966-67 is a solid analog with regards to the positive ONI values maintaining closer toward fall/winter. And in case we go more Nina/neutral, it's even greater. That's what I see right now at least.

The 12z OKX sounding shows a CAP value of 5.6. Gonna need some strong daytime heating to overcome that. It'll take some time.

Models completely missed this convection. Even the new 0z NAM didn't initialize correctly. Getting pounded with heavy rain and lightning currently. I mean, like wow this is a total whiff on all the models, especially the CAMs.

Convection really beginning to fire up. Flash flood and Severe Thunderstorm warning here.

Some isolated thunderstorms are popping up in PA as many places are beginning to reach their convective temperatures. Any of these storms could be capable of becoming strong with CAPE values nearing 5000 j/kg, the LI nearing -10, and mid-level/low level lapse rates plenty high enough. There is enough of a cap to limit too many storms.

My station says a heat index of 116 and I don't doubt it (might be 3 degrees or so high). The official Reading airport station says a heat index of 110.

92/78/108 in Fleetwood. According to 1pm obs across the Mount Holly CWA, the Reading/Berks County areas are the hottest due to the highest combination of temperature and dew point.

So much lightning and flooding rain in that line. Not much wind where I was but still a good storm.

tornado warning on the line heading toward Philly

Also have a slight risk for parts of the area today. Main threats today will be flooding rain with PWATs nearing 2 inches and a localized wet downburst threat with the heavy rain.

Temperature is already up to 90 and heat index is 105. I don't even want to know how bad Saturday is going to be.

Umm, wow. Just went on Berks Fire Alerts facebook page and found this posted only 1 minute ago: ***Delayed Post - 10 Min*** Douglass Twp: Grist Mill Rd IAO Locust Dr - WATER RESCUE - Occupied Vehicle stuck in multiple feet of water - 2 pediatric patients, 1 pregnant female - Marine 16 E/R M07 Fire Alerts of Berks County VEHICLE NOW TAKEN AWAY BY THE WATER; VEHICLE FLIPPED OVER AND IS TRAVELING RAPIDLY M07 1 3m Fire Alerts of Berks County Vehicle rocking; in multiple feet of water; water is very rapid Chief 16 doesn’t feel confident w/ committing his Marine unit due to the rapid changing conditions with the water Water is now up to the steering wheel M07

Some pretty bad flooding going on in southern Lehigh and Berks Counties.

Wow I didn't get any pictures but that line rolling through is perfect for some shelf cloud pictures.

Those storms rolling in from the west will at the minimum bring really heavy rains.

Storms coming in from the west forming a nice bowing line segment. Much of the area should be impacted through the rest of the afternoon, especially the further west you go.

Parts of Berks have picked up over 4" of rain in the past 24 hours. South of Philly and into NJ even more.