Newman

1993-94 anyone? The ONI progression looks similar to what we could see this winter. Perhaps this winter is a touch warmer. Lets say we throw in 1993-94 for a similar west based warmish Neutral regime with its warm PDO and a cool 1+2, 2013-14 for its warm blob south of Alaska (I'm not sold on that blob going away just yet. 2013-14 had a cool Neutral/weak Nina), and 2005 just for its warmer and positive Atlantic/AMO.

New IRI/CPC ENSO probabilities have been posted: El Nino has ended: Here is what the July SST's looked like: The July AMO value finished at 0.350, up from 0.171 in June and the most positive AMO value since Dec 2017.

The current look, featuring cooling in the east based regions of the ENSO with western regions remaining warmer. The PDO is positive with a warm pool south of Alaska, but not to the extent of 2013-14 obviously. A cold pool east of Newfoundland in the Atlantic with warm waters immediately south of Greenland.

I've just started to look towards what this winter may deliver, and 2003-04 seems like a strong analog. It was coming off a prior El Nino winter, it was mainly weak Nino/Neutral during the winter, it had a positive PDO, positive AMO, and low solar activity. However, the summer of 2003 transitioned into a neutral phase much quicker than what is currently forecasted for this summer/fall/winter. I would throw in 2004-05 in case we remain more El Nino, rather than completely neutral. I like 2004's QBO transition into winter as well. It's much better than 2003 and it's close to what I think we could see this winter. A later transition of the QBO could yield later stratospheric impacts deep into winter (February and March, but things like that are fickle and require other variables to look at). 2004-05 also had a warm Atlantic and low solar, but not as warm of a Pacific. 1966-67 is a solid analog with regards to the positive ONI values maintaining closer toward fall/winter. And in case we go more Nina/neutral, it's even greater. That's what I see right now at least.

HRRR agrees with the WWA issued as well.

WWA across SE PA for 2-4". 18z NAM agrees.

Euro:

12k NAM Kuchera, which I think is more reliable in this case with the warmth aloft.

I think the I-95 area will battle sleet and rain for the most part, although it's close. There's clearly a warm layer up top. For those 30 miles or so NW of Philly, it's going to likely be a wet isothermal bomb. However, if the I-95 area can cool the column enough, they could easily see a wet paste job. Temps are very marginal and it'll come down to snow rates and dynamic cooling aloft.

Could Someone explain why Greenland ice is at a record level with regards to surface mass balance? If there is any sign for this to decrease and get back to normal levels, what is it?