Newman

Temps are warm, but I definitely do think parts of SE PA can pick up 1-2" tomorrow especially if rates are heavy enough. I definitely wouldn't take the GFS 10:1 snow map seriously (well you never should), but take it as where the heaviest snows could likely fall tomorrow evening. As the secondary forms off the coast, you'll see the radar collapse likely and the QPF will dry out. There will definitely be a shadow effect when the transfer occurs. Here's hoping we can hold onto the small but potent primary long enough...

18z NAM QPF is juicy

Yep an uptick in QPF from 0z to 12z on the Euro

Little over a half inch. Puts me at a whopping 2.3" on the season...

Deck pic my dad sent me this morning from back home in Fleetwood. 2" on the car, 1.5" on the measuring board.

Could not agree more. I'm very active on other NYC centered forums but it's tough with the clear bias. Here many of us experience the same weather and it would be great to talk more but it's not worth my time if there's only like 5 or 6 total members that post here lol.

Snow showers tonight

EURO!!!

Got sleet here in Fleetwood too

The mesos and models now having the low stall immediately on the coast is the best case scenario for inland counties possibly including Berks. I could see the Berks area see anywhere from 0" to 6" tomorrow. The Inverted trough feature will be a nowcast event.

There will be a real sharp cutoff somewhere with this one. Unfortunately Berks seems to be in the cross-hairs for the cutoff. The Ukie and Euro look good, the CMC, GFS, RGEM, NAM, etc. not the greatest for our area. I'm just trying to figure out when I want to drive back to school Sunday. Icy start to the day.

You bet

Snowing very nicely in Millersville. Roads are wet but decent coatings on grassy surfaces.

I think many here would take this and run with it for Tuesday. An inch or 2 followed by frigid cold to keep it around.

Not sure if some of y'all have seen, but Pivotal Weather now has free Hi-res ECMWF maps. Snowfall, precip type, and all. And in 6 hour intervals, not 24 hours. Just keep in mind for this winter. Sample:

Just a heads up, Pivotal Weather now has free Hi-res ECMWF weather maps, including snowfall, precip type, etc. And it goes in 6 hour intervals, not 24 hours.

I'm not going to pout and complain that it's only late October/Early November BUT if this look can materialize and hold for steady periods throughout the 2019-20 winter, we will be looking at plenty of snow opportunities. Ridge/Trough axis is nearly perfect (perhaps a smidge too far west), high latitude blocking over the top, trough north of Hawaii.... great look. Again, if I had to release an official analog map right now, I'd throw this one out there. And it has similarities to the map above. The difference is just the ridge orientation out west. That affects the trough orientation in the east downstream. But anyway, is it premature to say a 500mb pattern in late October will stick around for 4-5 months? Holy crap yes. You'd have to be a new level of stupid to think you've got a sure-thing touchdown right now. But if we can get stuck in this pattern with the occasional thaw/warm-up? Then it's all-aboard the hype train. Either way its nice to be thinking about winter early this year rather than later.

August PDO data: 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z 0.66 2019-02-01T00:00:00Z 0.46 2019-03-01T00:00:00Z 0.37 2019-04-01T00:00:00Z 1.07 2019-05-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 2019-06-01T00:00:00Z 1.09 2019-07-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 2019-08-01T00:00:00Z 0.38 August AMO data: 2017 0.222 0.224 0.164 0.280 0.311 0.305 0.299 0.307 0.347 0.430 0.349 0.361 2018 0.170 0.059 0.129 0.061 -0.004 -0.014 0.015 0.110 0.159 0.141 -0.124 -0.063 2019 -0.018 0.078 0.118 0.121 0.085 0.171 0.349 0.335

ENSO 3.4 continues to dive: ENSO 4 is as well with plenty of easterly wind bursts nearing 180W:

From 2009, talking about changing global circulations including Hadley Cell/Mid-Latitude Cell disruptions, etc.: http://www.inscc.utah.edu/~reichler/publications/papers/Reichler_09_Widening.pdf

Courtesy to Isotherm, he and I had a small conversation on the disruption of the global jet stream patterns due to the emergence of changing Hadley Cell and Mid-Latitude Cell circulations. As SSTs continue to warm poleward due to the background state and changing climate, we see more convection which acts to disrupt the typical Hadley Cell circulations we know. Typically we see rising air at the ITCZ which spreads poleward and subsides around 30N which creates the Horse Latitudes. With convection being able to fire further north, the Hadley Cell circulations expand which create stronger gradients and subsequently strengthen the mid-Latitude cells. For the United States, that means the Pacific Jet stream becomes stronger. What I mean as "this isn't new" is the warmth of the Pacific and overall global oceans. We've seen warmth of our oceans for awhile now. However, are we finally entering the critical time where we truly do start to see global jet stream changes? Are winters going to be the same again? Or will we see more variability resulting in bigger and more extreme winter events? Have we already seen those changes? I don't know the answers to those questions, but I do know that in theory the global jet stream patterns should be or have already changed in the changing climate.

The PAC jet is still raging due to Pacific Warmth spreading poleward and subsequently expanding Hadley Cells and strengthening the mid-Latitude cell (Pacific Jet). This isn't new, though. The Pacific overall has been warm for the past couple years to a decade. The question is how will the strong Pacific jet trend and/or affect the upcoming winter. Last year the Pacific was so hostile. Could we see a repeat?

ENSO region 4 has cooled in the past week and is at its coolest since a month ago: Likely due to a strong burst of easterly wind stress. The GFS forecast of a burst of westerly wind stress could help to bring the temperatures back up again:

Here's a look at how the SST's have changed since June: