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About MAG5035

  • Birthday 03/14/1986

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    Altoona, PA

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  1. OCMD now in a tropical storm watch that was issued earlier on, as I'm sure your aware. You might get to see some action after all.
  2. I think some restrengthening isn't out of the realm of possibility within the next 24 hours or so. Beyond that it will likely start feeling the effects of the approaching trough (shear). Satellite presentation has improved a bit this afternoon after some erosion of the convection specifically in the NW quadrant earlier today. The eye remains obviously very well defined but not the perfect symmetrical appearance it had coming into Abaco and Grand Bahama. Some detriments to restrengthening in the short term as NHC noted in the latest advisory is the possible eyewall replacement and upwelling of cooler waters due to its nearly stationary motion. There has also been some degradation of the western eyewall that remains present. I do think the storm could reverse the notable rise in central pressure today to a degree upon completing an eyewall replacement cycle but it's fairly unlikely IMO it'll regain status as a 5 or perhaps even regain much windspeed. But as Coastalwx said.. these things can certainly humble us. Regardless, Dorian will remain a powerful and very dangerous hurricane as it approaches the eastern FL and SE coastline. Even with a general slow weakening trend and a pretty good model consensus on staying offshore of Florida as we go forward, one still has to consider some potential widening of the wind field and associated effects along the eastern Florida coast. Attention of course then shifts up to the GA/SC/NC coasts where the timing of the more northeastward turn ahead of the trough will be very important in determining how significant the eventual impacts are there. One more thing to note is the northward jog the eye has taken in the most recent satellite imagery, hopefully a good sign for the Florida coast but too early to call it a definitive motion... especially if the hurricane is trying to complete an ERC.
  3. Sandy was definitely the windiest system here of any recent central PA major tropical system incursions, which back this way would involve Fran (96), Isabel (03), Frances (04), and Ivan (04). The flooding issues of the latter two are certainly well documented but they didn't have too much wind. Sandy of course was an extremely anomalous event all around. It was several hours of near constant wind, which we ended up losing a tree or two out of it. But just a couple miles away there was an area that pretty much a whole section of woods got laid out from the high winds. I probably still have the velocity image somewhere on my laptop of the 80-90kt velocities over the whole area. Edit, I found it:
  4. There will certainly be the usual issues of high surf/riptides/beach erosion and perhaps some minor coastal flooding as the hurricane eventually gets lifted up past that region. But the storm track vs the orientation of the coastline there probably would suggest not too many major issues. A track on the farther western envelope of guidance would likely involve Dorian passing thru mainland NC to get there, so you'd be talking a weaker system in that case. Although, the storm center passing very close would invite at least some storm surge potential (likely 2-4ft type stuff). Model guidance has generally been keeping if fairly far offshore from Ocean City, MD after getting very close to the Carolina's and perhaps impacting the Outer Banks region. So OCMD could get into some of the outer stuff, but the core of what's left of Dorian at that point looks to stay offshore. It will be also be moving much quicker at that stage of the game too as it's being picked up. That's my take on it currently, obviously there's still a lot of questions yet surrounding what this hurricane is going to do. Ocean City could also decide to be cautious and evacuate tourists out till the storm passes if it were to end up coming very close. This could also be interesting at the coastal New England/Nova Scotia level, 12z Euro looked to phase in some energy to a probable extratropical transitioning Dorian and make for a pretty significant impact on Nova Scotia.
  5. While it's quite early in the game for pondering such things, I don't particularly think our region is going to see effects from Dorian save for maybe glancing the southern LSV portions of the subforum with some rain or something. Typically to bring one of these storms into our region you need downstream ridging/blocking in eastern Canada and the western Atlantic and I'm not quite seeing that on the models. Once the storm curves it's going to eventually be picked up and shot north/northeast after really slowing down on it's approach to Florida. So in terms of the rest of the SE coast and eastern seaboard/coastal plain up to New England, yea I would certainly be keeping an eye on the developments of it. But for our region at this point I think it's unlikely. The 12z Euro is interesting that it keeps Dorian off the Florida Coast, perhaps even sparing the coast much hurricane strength impacts if it continues to be on the smaller side in terms of extent of hurricane force winds. It will be interesting to see how this evolves the next day or two. This will be a very strong hurricane on approach to Florida, likely a cat 4 and perhaps a high end one at that. If it in fact largely stays offshore of Florida then the SC/NC coast would be under the gun for a stronger potential impact. Although typically in these cases it would feature a weakened hurricane to some degree with influences from being picked up and waters that are warm but not quite as warm as it is in now. Def still major hurricane potential (Cat 3) but I think Florida would see the top strength of Dorian if it made landfall there (Cat 4 potentially).
  6. Well it had been drying out pretty nicely around here in the last few weeks. Then today happened: I was on the edge of the approximately 3" or so area on the doppler estimate.. and that all fell in the better part of an hour or so. Also the worst lightning storm I've seen in awhile.
  7. Here was a screenshot picture off one of the videos I took this afternoon. Looking north toward the hook and the meso crossing over the mountain. I made a good intercept considering I rarely get a chance to do such things around the immediate area. This one wasn’t strong enough to drop a funnel but as I said earlier it did have rotation.
  8. I’m in Bellwood right now so i probably won’t have to go anywhere to see what happens with the hook echo on the cell bearing down. EDIT: I forgot to hit send on this. Ended up going a couple miles south on a hill to get below the hook and have a look. There was definitely rotation but no funnel that I could see.
  9. Wow, a near state-wide tornado watch just issued for PA. I think things will clear out more in the Sus Valley as we get into the later afternoon, which is evident on satellite. Mesoanalysis is showing pretty big CAPE already advected into the western and central counties.. on the order of >3000 j/kg (surface based). A lot of mesoanalysis parameters look fairly impressive for this neck of the woods. The combination of the large CAPE and modest helicity has 0-1km EHI numbers >1 and in the 2-4 range (most in northern PA attm) over a big portion of central/western PA. That in itself is a solid indicator of a tornadic threat from thunderstorms today. Pretty high bulk shear numbers and bulk richardson numbers (BRN) in the 10-45 range over a good portion of central PA would suggest cellular and supercells as the dominant storm mode today vs lines or clusters. Large hail is also a notable threat as well given the large CAPE. There is definitely high potential for a pretty significant severe outbreak late this afternoon.
  10. Yea there's a couple bowing segments in the main line, with the most notable section that was tornado warned having impacted Warren a bit ago. Most impressive portion of the line seems to be I-80 north in PA at the moment. Primary threat with this overnight is of the QLCS variety, which presents the potential for brief tornadoes imbedded in some of the bowed segments in addition to the high likelihood of severe thunderstorm wind gusts. That's the general basis for the tornado watch issued for most of the commonwealth. Winds aloft are pretty significant (50-60kt at 850mb), so not going to take much to mix that down given central PA having busted into the warm sector. I know it's already been quite windy here this evening without the storms. Was looking at mesoanalysis and this severe threat could have been a much more serious one had we had the daytime heating/CAPE element to things. This is a very impressive setup dynamically. Effective bulk shear and helicity numbers are VERY high right now in Central PA. Any kind of half decent CAPE would have sent the EHI parameter through the roof (one indicator for strong tornadoes). I'd say if this setup would have been shifted back 6-8 hours and central PA would have cleared some today and got sun and daytime heating this threat could well have been one with more discrete storm cell activity ahead of the front. This could have been a more traditional severe outbreak with very high tornadic potential.
  11. An inch on the ground this morning, after a 70ish degree day Saturday.
  12. I think it'd be more of an April Fool's joke if I were to post that it wasn't snowing outside here. A major snow squall occurring right now with accums on the ground (coating), heck I might have to measure if it keeps up.
  13. Still somewhat of a rain/snow mix here at 1300’ (mostly rain attm). Took my drive up the road and light accums started around 1500-1600’ and ended up with an inch or so by the top (2400’+). Pic is 4.2 miles from my house (same spot as last week)
  14. Lol you guys are all talking spring fling in here and guess what? It’s snowing here currently.
  15. I've been thinking that too, that low couldn't have tracked any better for us in here.