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About MAG5035

  • Birthday 03/14/1986

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Altoona, PA

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  1. Yea there's a couple bowing segments in the main line, with the most notable section that was tornado warned having impacted Warren a bit ago. Most impressive portion of the line seems to be I-80 north in PA at the moment. Primary threat with this overnight is of the QLCS variety, which presents the potential for brief tornadoes imbedded in some of the bowed segments in addition to the high likelihood of severe thunderstorm wind gusts. That's the general basis for the tornado watch issued for most of the commonwealth. Winds aloft are pretty significant (50-60kt at 850mb), so not going to take much to mix that down given central PA having busted into the warm sector. I know it's already been quite windy here this evening without the storms. Was looking at mesoanalysis and this severe threat could have been a much more serious one had we had the daytime heating/CAPE element to things. This is a very impressive setup dynamically. Effective bulk shear and helicity numbers are VERY high right now in Central PA. Any kind of half decent CAPE would have sent the EHI parameter through the roof (one indicator for strong tornadoes). I'd say if this setup would have been shifted back 6-8 hours and central PA would have cleared some today and got sun and daytime heating this threat could well have been one with more discrete storm cell activity ahead of the front. This could have been a more traditional severe outbreak with very high tornadic potential.
  2. An inch on the ground this morning, after a 70ish degree day Saturday.
  3. I think it'd be more of an April Fool's joke if I were to post that it wasn't snowing outside here. A major snow squall occurring right now with accums on the ground (coating), heck I might have to measure if it keeps up.
  4. Still somewhat of a rain/snow mix here at 1300’ (mostly rain attm). Took my drive up the road and light accums started around 1500-1600’ and ended up with an inch or so by the top (2400’+). Pic is 4.2 miles from my house (same spot as last week)
  5. Lol you guys are all talking spring fling in here and guess what? It’s snowing here currently.
  6. I've been thinking that too, that low couldn't have tracked any better for us in here.
  7. Not necessarily squall line potential but there will be a ton of instability tomorrow in the wake of our deepening coastal storm. The strong late March sun that will likely come out at times esp in the Sus Valley and south central and surface heating vs the cold air aloft will definitely ensure low level instability and numerous pop up rain/snow showers (likely in more cellular fashion). There will also be decent instability at the mid levels too with the very deep closed 500mb low over the NE bringing in a lobe of -35 to -40ªC air over PA tomorrow afternoon/evening at the 500mb level. Should be some feisty showers of whatever tomorrow.. probably more snow in the Laurels/central counties and rain in the Sus Valley. This is the type of setup that graupel is quite possible too along with rumbles of thunder.
  8. Snowiest 511 cam I can find at the moment in C-PA surprisingly is the Sideling Hill US 30 cam in Fulton County. This is east of Breezewood and just south of the turnpike.
  9. I think there's a chance but it looks to come down to timing of the potential wave vs the press of the cold air boundary. Too quick and its too far north and too late and best precip runs south of the area. 18z GFS looked suggestive of a rain to snow scenario as the cold presses south with the wave moving through our region. That would obviously be a risky scenario this time of the year. Still pretty decent lead time for resolving details with that one.
  10. The situation 5 miles (and +1200’ elev) away, S+ and accums starting. Down here it’s mainly rain with cat paws/slush drops. Full transition looked to be about 1600-1800’. Looking at all the bright banding on CCX radar essentially down to right over the radar. This thing was about 2 or 3 degrees at the surface-925mb level from being a paste bomb in the AOO-UNV region.
  11. Saw some mPING obs with rain/snow around State College. Blue Knob ski resort has snow falling. Looked like a bit of accumulation too judging by their f-book pics.
  12. I kinda hope I get little or nothing precip wise out of this coastal system haha. After months of being so wet and finally starting to dry things out around the yard to where I can actually walk on it now.. I think I'd take high and dry over a rainstorm or a rain/snow mix that amounted to little or nothing in the snow department. I'm pretty much at the point of the season where my weather preferences would be as follows: 1. Big time snow storm 2. Warm and dry 3. Cold and dry 4. Advisory snow that probably lasts a day or less on the ground 5. Rain
  13. Yea I remember that Euro control run about a week or so ago in particular that detonated that huge storm (this upcoming coastal). That particular model run actually had the third shortwave that drops out of Hudson Bay (which is notable on models in the much nearer term now) and that run phased everything in a manner that gave that 960mb off the Delmarva solution... making it look quite like a triple phase type thing with three shortwaves involved. I actually commented on it back on the 11th (page 54). At the time the other models only had two shortwaves interacting and not the one that came right out of Hudson Bay, making less explosive solutions than that one was. 9 days and a lot of different coastal and non coastal solutions later and we actually have ended up settling on what looks like a decent coastal storm but as has been noted by you guys, via a later and further north phase. With more cold available up front this still could have been salvaged as a nice snowstorm even down into parts of the Mid-Atlantic subforum. You look at thicknesses and 540 line is into the Sus Valley, but that's more a result of the levels above 850mb as the lower levels 850mb and under are going to be cool and pretty isothermal but still too warm. I do think this ended up really close to being something pretty big. The heavy precip band northern MD up into the Sus Valley certainly indicates decent dynamics involved. I'd still watch elevational areas in NE and perhaps some of North Central PA above IPT.
  14. The NAM seems to be presenting the best scenario for a potential rain to snow ordeal (def elevational) being the furthest west and focusing heavier precip into the central areas that are higher overall. I don't think the setup is necessarily terrible from the standpoint of how the storm develops and tracks but there's just not a lot of surface/low-mid level cold to work with until the rapidly deepening coastal has lifted away. 0z Euro has quite an intense band of QPF thru the Sus Valley into NE PA similar to the NAM (precip only edges central counties though) but low level thermals just aren't there at 925mb and surface and marginal at 850mb. It's hard to do marginal in late March outside of the higher elevations... so I see two potential areas we could see a wet snow threat evolve. The Laurels and higher ridge and valley region in the central third of the state (provided heavier precip set up that far back), or perhaps the more likely area.. the Poconos region of NE PA. The Euro did light up some accums in NE PA.
  15. Light dusting of snow and flakes flying around this morning after cracking 70+ the last couple days. March, lol.