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About MAG5035

  • Birthday 03/14/1986

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    Bellwood, PA

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  1. JST is now 72ºF, so now the only one left is Mount Pocono. Also see that KCXY (Harrisburg) is 79ºF.
  2. I don't know if I can recall a warmer 2-3 day period than this one in our region as a whole not only in the month of February but in the entire meteorological winter (DJF). I don't even think the infamous "July in Christmas" heat wave we had Christmas week last winter had such widespread 70-75ºF+ temps. There might be some severe weather risk tomorrow with the frontal passage, especially in the Sus Valley.. where CAPE's of up to several hundred J/kg poke up into PA as the front doesn't get in that region til later in the day. Primarily a wind threat with a mainly unidirectional flow aloft. There is some modest helicity present between 15-18z Sat also, so with the bit of CAPE we do have that does trigger some 0-1km EHI values up near 1 in the Sus Valley. So wouldn't rule out a random low topped cell or two throwing down a weak, short lived tornado either. SPC has central and eastern Penn down into the Mid-Atlantic in a marginal threat tomorrow, and mentions maybe eventually needing a slight risk. Either way it probably won't be the enhanced threat we see today in Ohio. We finally get back to somewhat normal temps after the front goes through into early next week. It looks like the next system mid week will be primarily a rain threat before reinforcing a colder regime beyond that. Overall, it looks pretty active and volatile going into the first week or so of March. There will be a good bit of cold available, it certainly does not look like a return to the ridiculousness we have now in the near future. Big question of course will be storm track in what looks to be a northern branch dominated regime. A big theme this year with northern branch storms has been simply the lows are tracking too far north...even with okay pattern alignments. Clipper lows tracking north of PA generally invite some combination (or all of the above) of less QPF, downsloping issues for the Sus Valley, and marginal low level temps that make for p-type issues. We shall see if we can finally sneak a couple under the mason-dixon line for a change. I do think there will be another threat or two to be had in the coming month, but at the same time am still pessimistic of this winters ability to finally shake the issues it's given us all along.
  3. There's a lot of mesowest stations in the south central and Sus Valley regions that are 74-75ºF+ currently. Saw one station near Carlisle reporting 77ºF. Literally about as warm as you can possibly get this time of the year. I've seen the majority of opening weekends of trout season (the mid April one) be cooler than what we've had this week. It may end up average to a few degrees below the last few days of the month but I'd have to think this likely easily ends up as the warmest February ever in our region...or certainly one of them. There's just no offsetting such abnormal warmth for a large chunk of the month.. especially when the "cold" we had earlier in the month is more akin to average cold than anything else.
  4. I love this thread haha. The 70"+ may or may not be fake news but the disparity between the Mid-Atlantic and the rest of the NE is all too real this winter. While the debate rages on whether folks were buried under 3.5 or 6 feet of snow, we have a snow starvation crisis south of the mason-dixon line worthy of needing the Red Cross and a commercial with a good Sarah McLachlan song. I wonder how "In the Arms of the Angel" sounds on accordion. Joking aside I'm jealous of some of the awesome pics in here haha.
  5. I'll bite haha. In short, no the radiative material released into the atmosphere or the water would have no direct effect on weather patterns or SST's. Rather.. the weather patterns and oceanic currents would have an effect in how it is distributed. And outside of the immediate area around the plant and some of the regional waters just off the coast, levels can be detectable but very miniscule. Here are some SST maps from Today Feb 20, and Feb 19th, 2015. Note the huge difference in the Northern and Eastern Pac. Pacific air invasions aren't necessarily a rare thing, we usually go through moderate periods most winters where we can have more of a zonal flow across the country which will deliver air with a Pacific origin. That or if you dump the occasional trough in the west your usually going to have a ridge response in the east (esp without NAO help). These things are pretty common in a transient or transitioning pattern...just like you can still line things up in the east just right for a snowstorm in a pattern that doesn't have much blocking. This winter has had some pretty overwhelming themes and has stuck to them. It's been kind of like the anti 13/14 and 14/15 with regards to the Pacific. Both of those winters featured very strong eastern Pac/Western US ridges that were a dominant theme. That alignment alone provided a direct arctic source region for cold air into the central/eastern CONUS and kind of rendered the generally unfavorable NAO a bit of a non factor. It also contributed heavily to the historic drought in the western US, especially in California. This winter has featured a lot of troughing in the west and a supressed and very robust Pac jet. The west was due for a stormy winter and they sure got it/still are getting it. This is where the lack of downstream blocking (Greenland/NE Canada) caught up to us this year as we needed that to force heights down in the east in the face of the active western pattern and trough (why we've had a lot of cutters). We had access to pretty cold air in Canada in December and early Jan but it quietly became an issue later in Jan and this month. The Jan 24th storm featured the best pattern alignment with a temporary blocking ridge in eastern Canada forcing the really nice southern stream storm underneath and into a good C-PA track. Unfortunately.. there was no antecedent cold air mass to be had, and marginal cold had to be drawn in/dynamically manufactured. The result was a lot of wasted QPF and a late changeover in the central with the dry slot ending the accumulating snow prematurely. The clipper system and the recent widespread event came about with a relatively favorable storm pattern with the PNA in a positive phase and some western ridging, but again temps weren't very cold. That boundary between not a lot of snow and above average snow has been residing in some of far northern/NE PA and mostly above the NY/PA border this winter. Like i mentioned the other day, BGM already has about 92" for the season (164% of their seasonal avg). There's also this crazy graphic that can sort of illustrate how cold just really hasn't pressed deep into the US very much this winter. Early foliage has started blossoming 15-20+ days early in a large portion of the southeast. With the exception of one event (the deep south ice storm and VA/NC snowstorm), it has been largely a non winter south of the Ohio River.
  6. I for one hope that back to reality slap to the face comes sooner rather than later in March so we could at least salvage an opportunity or two and bounce into spring normally. However, I'm seeing the same problems we've seen all winter long in the longer range of the models. They definitely are reloading Canada with very cold air (finally) as the coming week wears on, but the progressive and very active jet just doesn't allow any press deep into the CONUS and once again the trough is focusing on the western half of the country and forces a pretty solid SE ridge eventually. We should cool back to around average after the system progged around next weekend but it looks that we'll be quite vulnerable to cutters beyond that. Thus, we may be on the wrong side of the boundary again with what will probably be a pretty robust storm pattern as the cold reloads in Canada and the southern US warms with March arriving. Or I guess a better way to put that would be... as the already very warm regime continues on in the southern US.
  7. What a warm day today, my only complaint here is it is still way too muddy to do much outside around the house. By the time this major warm spell gets mitigated to some degree next weekend, we'll have lost a big chunk of our prime major snowstorm climo. JB's "American Pie" February must have been fresh out of the oven.
  8. Just caught this interesting bit of info. While MDT is sitting at 5.5" for the winter to date, 180ish miles up I-81 in Binghamton they're sitting at 91.9". I know it's a good bit snowier there than H-burg but that number is 164% of average to date and already 110% of their entire seasonal average. That's also good for second in the Golden Snowball contest that's run between 5 Upstate NY cities (Syracuse, Rochester, Albany, Buffalo, and Binghamton). Just kinda shows the fine line that we've been south of a good bit of the winter. Also can note how much Buffalo has struggled compared to their average between a more dominant westerly/WNW lake trajectory and healthy dose of cutting storms that easily scour out cold in WNY.
  9. Haha it was actually the first time in a few years I've had any kind of thundersnow. Kinda caught me off guard... it was just a good rumble of thunder and then a pretty run of the mill snow squall...no crazy whiteout or anything.
  10. I'm sure we can find some common ground with New England. They just have to win at everything... NFL championships, back to back blizzards, etc lol. Which pro teams are you a fan of? I'm a pretty normal western PA pro sports person (Steelers/Pen's/Pirates). Crab cakes and beer sound amazing.. Nut will have to bring the smoker I don't have one haha.
  11. Just had a clap of thunder with this incoming snow squall line.
  12. Snow showers/squalls have arrived, dusting on the ground.
  13. I'd believe it, there's a pretty big area of 70+ mph on velocities east of town now toward Lewistown with the beam height about 1500-2000ft.
  14. It def is looking like quite a windy one, especially for you since it always seems like your in a wind tunnel for these wind events haha. 850mb winds are progged to be 60-70knots just off to the southeast of the Sus Valley, which is likely why LWX and PHL have high wind watches/warnings. CTP might eventually consider York and Lancaster counties for high wind warnings. 850mb winds still 50-60 knots in the rest of Sus Valley, so there should be some pretty decent gusts of the 40-50knot variety mixed down. There could also be some feisty snow squalls back over the Laurels and some of the central mountains region (AOO-UNV) in the wake of the arctic front passage tonight. Still watching the Wed-Thur timeframe. It still looks the streams will stay unphased but the dominant northern branch wave may run an area of light snow across the state anyways. Low stays north of PA so the usual downsloping issues east of the mountains will probably present themselves. Beyond that we dump a trough in the west again and that will quickly drive up heights in the east and likely above average temperatures for the 6-10 day timeframe. GFS has been remarkably consistent the last few days with some kind of very large and slow eastern storm way out beyond D10. It started in the 300s but is now showing it starting to develop just inside D10 (240). 12z Euro has it too. The problem with a big storm in that timeframe might ultimately be a lack of cold air, however a major event may shuffle the pattern back to where we may be more favorable for wintry weather. We still technically haven't even entered the phase 8 MJO (another day or two) yet... so with the lag we might not start to realize the effects until around that day 8-10 timeframe and beyond. Still think overall that teleconnection could be positioned decently for a late season winter run if other factors cooperate enough... then maybe we could shake some of this winter's tendencies. With NY State and New England getting theirs pretty decently, one glaring tendency that has become obvious is aside from the Carolinas/VA snowstorm this winter has been a 40N and above winter... at best.
  15. 5.2" was the storm total this morning, what a heavy wet snowfall this was. Got all cleared off for the additional snow showers and squalls that have started to move in this afternoon. That brings the seasonal total to 30.7" here, which is solidly ahead of last winter now. It hardly feels like it, because snowpack has not been lasting all that long this winter.. which will probably be the case again by the end of the weekend.