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About MAG5035

  • Birthday 03/14/1986

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    Altoona, PA

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  1. It has seemed like we've had a lot of swing and misses so far this winter compared to 11-12. Of course that one did have one decent coastal hit.. on Halloween. I remember having a 7-8" snowfall in January, which I just found digging through my pictures. My biggest snowfall to date this winter is 2.0".. so I'd call this one worse so far personally. 11-12 was really warm in Feb-March if I recall correctly and that winter was different ENSO wise, being a solid La Nina the whole winter. Obviously things still have time to turn around in this one.
  2. Yea your right, I probably should have worded that better. They had been tightening up the snow zone toward the central third of the state NW of I-81, but that portion of the state had been pretty stable with strong ensemble support. Taking snow out of the AOO-UNV corridor and out of a lot of the north central as well was a pretty big shift today. Although I haven't seen the ensembles yet.
  3. Yea if this ugly 12z suite ends up coming to fruition, thats going to be a tough bust on those models. Seems like they're starting to keep the primary dominant too far north as it does get into Michigan.. which probably won't work for most anyone in here unless we have a rapidly intensifying coastal low. Just looking at the NAM for instance we have no redevelopment of the 850mb low instead having the original one going into the lakes and sending in warmer 850 air. This is a change from earlier runs a day or two ago which were bringing the 850 low over or just south of the area. Just not going to work without any established cold air. This isn't even looking all that great in NY State either, seemingly more relegated to the high ground up there. The EC and GFS busted pretty good in the central on Sat too, the GFS moreso... having a warning snowfall close to game time at UNV when the reality ended up being about 2 inches or so and a lot of sleet and even freezing rain for not only there but most of the north central. The GFS in under one cycle has went from about a foot at UNV to pretty much zero at 12z today. Thats rough, but that's what we're working with here.. a degree or two aloft either way turns this to a snowstorm or yet another rainstorm. We'll see what the Euro does, what the 12z ensembles look like, and go from there with the 18z and 0z tonight. There's still a chance the storm evolution goes back the other way as this is only 1 run.
  4. The overnight guidance I thought solidified a good bit with a more defined miller-B transition... perhaps a little bit high on the latitude with the primary before transferring but otherwise a workable track with plenty of QPF to be had in the region. The problem is becoming more about the marginal column temps in place ahead of the system as well the models predicting the secondary low a bit more inside the coastline, more of a coastal plain runner. That inside track hurts the Lower Sus Valley, especially York/Lancaster counties. But even more of a coastal track is an issue trying to get 850 temps cool enough in especially the LSV and it's close too.. only a matter of a couple degrees. The north-central is in the best shape with this currently, and the central between I-80 and the turnpike and further NW of I-81 is as always.. the most complicated to nail down. Could be rain to 1-2" of junk or a 6-10" shallacking.. or both. One positive I have noticed is the high to the north has quietly been being progged a bit stronger as we've gotten closer. I see the 12z NAM has started things off in the wrong direction.
  5. Well giddy or not, this threat is now inside D4 and the 2-3 straight days of that stripe of 6"+ in pretty much the same section of C-PA on the Euro EPS has my attention.
  6. There's some signs of eventual coastal development, but it's hard to take stock in trying to determine what it will do...especially being the NAM at that range. It does show a 1036mb high just north of Maine, which is a bit stronger than the GFS and Euro. But otherwise it looks in the ballpark of the 6z GFS at 90. 6z Euro to 90 has the low more SE and is actually a stronger looking system. I'll be curious to see what the ensuing frames look like if the 12z Euro is still looking like that.
  7. 93 and 96 were Miller A's. Somewhat more recent big storms with some miller B type characteristics are the 2003 PDII and Feb 5-6, 2010 storms. Those two had surface low reflections just west of the Apps that transferred over, but obviously much better blocking and cold air in place.
  8. Yea I mean my big concern with regards to track is it ends up doing the whole miller-B process further north, with the primary getting into the lakes or something like that and setting up the I-90 corridor as you say. But that line of thinking is more reflective of how this particular winter has gone in terms of an overly dominant dose of storms to the lakes or tracking north of PA than overall C-PA storm climo. It's not necessarily that back here gets skipped over so much as late transferring miller-b systems, or simply more progressive systems that transfer to the coast a lot of times will send in an initial wave of WAA precip that shuts off when the energy goes to the coast. The result being say, we get an advisory or low end warning snowfall from a system that delivers a lot more further east and northeast once it gets more wound up. That's essentially what the 0 and the 6z GFS did. The problem with this is the marginal temps. I think the central counties can work with this as is even with the GFS solution, but the Lower Sus Valley is going to need a more robust secondary development to get things cold enough.
  9. Yea that's pretty much what happened there. It's my biggest concern about this system with the way things have gone storm track wise this winter. The deeper solutions that went under PA give all of us at least a half decent chance of something despite marginal temps but a late transfer would pretty much do in the threat for us. The good thing is that it's only Monday night on a Fri night-Sat threat.
  10. I dunno if i'd call it a "cold" high in the sense of it being a source of cold like we had for most of Sat's event but the presence of high pressure to the north to force the storm to the coast also sets up that LLJ they mention.. which is the anomalous easterly flow off the Atlantic. This storm has "the look" I want to see in that department, with the GFS having at least a -3 sigma at 850mb and greater than -5 at one point on the Euro (that's a really strong easterly fetch). That's a major tip off I look for with the potential of an excessive snowfall event, which I'll put up the examples below. Obviously the problem here is the marginal cold we're working with at that level (and overall). The Euro's very highly anomalous easterly flow at 850mb is probably too much for the marginal temps at that level, which leaves the LSV out of the snow but smacks the western half of the state. The GFS has been just a bit colder as well which has made the difference for the LSV. Looking at 12z guidance the Euro is a bit NW of the GFS with all the features (surface low and 850 low) and just a bit warmer aloft. Canadian seems the most NW for this model cycle out of the ops. I'd be curious for a look at GEFS and Euro ensembles. This storm happening as models generally have it would potentially be a higher category KU type NESIS event with just having a modified arctic airmass to work with. But without that this is still a possible heavy snow event, but it favors interior locations NW of the megalopolis and potentially NW of I-81 in PA if the slightly warmer Euro had it's way. 850mb wind anomalies 12z GFS at 123hr 12z Euro at 123hr
  11. Same here haha. I gotta get to 50" to call it an average season back this way and I'm not even to 10" yet.
  12. Wow 6z GFS was a flush hit for Central and eastern PA. The 0z Euro was there too, but was warmer aloft and much more marginal, especially in the LSV despite having a nice 850mb low track passing underneath PA. Focus of accumulating snow was in the central third of the state (Euro control similar). GFS 850mb low was a tad further north but had colder 850 air overall and it was enough to make it a primarily snow event for pretty much the whole subforum. Definitely an interesting setup. The 500mb pattern straight up is definitely doable, with a sprawling area of anomalously high heights residing over Canada and the storm track undercutting that. In a winter that has featured a stupid amount of cutting storms and a northern branch that has stayed well above PA for the most part (remember clippers?)... I guess that's a way to finally try to force one underneath us. The problem though is the cold air in place now gets moderated this week and the true arctic air is bottled up in it's region of origin courtesy of low heights over the pole (continued +AO) as well as the aforementioned Canadian ridging, which it's positioning is progged to cover a large portion of that country.. cutting off the source region for any fresh cold. What is on our side with this setup is climo. That January 25ish timeframe is basically the bottom of the curve in terms of average temperatures for the year so we can definitely do marginal. Present this type of thing in late November/early December and it's probably raining for the most part. In late January with a progged track and evolution like the Euro/GFS, you would certainly have to favor snow in at least the central counties and potentially the LSV with a dynamic enough system. It's got to stay underneath us though, or transfer to the coast underneath us. Or else it's either going to rain and/or we're going to just barely miss out on a potentially sizable snowstorm like we did at the beginning of December.
  13. I can confirm it is quite the glacier as it was rock solid when I woke up early this morning. Some of the back roads refroze too. Pretty much if you didn't clear off your driveway/sidewalk last night your gonna have a bad day doing it today. At least this stuff should take a lakes cutter or two haha Definitely going to have to hope for a timely secondary or straight coastal low solution with the cold relaxing late in the week now. Canadian has it (secondary) and the GFS is to the lakes with no secondary. Way more uncertainty than yesterday's event had at this range. This has some potential, but it looks like we might have to rely on a more dynamic coastal low type outcome to ensure enough cold for any kind of widespread snows in the area. A weak secondary with a parent low up the Ohio Valley into the lakes might not be enough given the said late week moderation in temps. At least we're at the bottom of the curve in terms of climo.
  14. You’d almost think it was January or something today... Getting fluff bombed With some LES/upslope currently and have an inch or so new already. Or you know, more snow than I got from the actual storm yesterday.
  15. Temp did spike up to 41ºF a little bit ago but it's back to 38ºF and the wind's really kicked up.