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About MAG5035

  • Birthday 03/14/1986

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Altoona, PA

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  1. Unfortunately I'm out of state for the weekend so I'll be missing out on whatever happens haha. As you guys mentioned QPF doesn't look too impressive, so it will be a minor event from that perspective. However the prospect of a wintry mix and ZR will be one to keep an eye on given how cold temps will be this weekend preceding the event. 12z NAM seems a bit quicker than 12z Euro/GFS with precip, making it more of an overnight Sunday into Monday morning thing. It's also more robust with precip especially in the Sus Valley. 12z GFS and Euro don't get much at all into the Susquehanna Valley. So we'll have to see how that shakes out getting into the short/near term. The last event kinda snuck up on being much more robust with precip. I do think we will see the first winter headlines of the season at least in the Laurel's/central counties...likely advisories for a potential of a trace of ZR. Keep in mind the NWS introduced a pretty simplified breakdown of their winter headlines. Gone are specific freezing rain advisories for instance, straight zr events on the more minor scale are now going to be categorized as a regular winter weather advisory. Not sure how I feel about that particular one, given a minor freezing rain event can have some of the most severe impacts from a traffic standpoint...but I can see the need for simplifying headlines to get the message across.. I do believe they will be issuing more specific products for snow squalls this year as well, sort of like severe thunderstorm warnings.
  2. Looks like KUNV is already 3 degrees below it's daily record low of 20ºF set in 1933 at 17ºF. Mesowest obs showing several single digit obs in the north central with KBFD at 9ºF. Quite an impressive cold snap for the 10/11th of November.
  3. Just got back from working up north above I-80 today and it was quite a nice drive home. First flakes and measurable snowfall in the books today in the backyard, about 0.7" on the colder surfaces. There was a mini dry slot that had moved into the Altoona area before I got home so may have been more like an inch a little bit ago. At the top of Wopsy Mountain above Altoona where it gets up around 2500' there's about 2.5" on the ground up there. Talk about a spur of the moment event for the central mountains. For as relentlessly warm as this fall has been this is literally the third time I've seen it snow since the November 1st Nor'easter in my travels around the general area here. I was working above Dubois last Wednesday and got to see that bit of snowfall. Here at home, I have a new vista this year (I moved haha) Top of Wopsy Mountain above Altoona (approx 2500' elevation). This is about 5 miles from my house.
  4. The wind ordeal did get a mention in CTPs Monday morning discussion.. debating whether it was a gravity wave or a sting jet. Given the point of maturity and the strength/positioning of the cyclone at the time the Fort Indiantown Gap wind was measured, my vote probably would be for the sting jet feature as the more likely occurrence of the two...although from what I've read it would seem sting jets are more of a thing associated with very deep and mature ocean storms... though on the other hand this thing was in fact quite a bomb. Either way the storm also had some tropical influence (Phillipe) entrained into it.. and previous experience with such things (Wilma 2005, Sandy, etc) has shown that these type of hybrid systems can do some pretty crazy things. From Mon Morning CTP discussion
  5. Just made the 5 minute drive from the Penn State Altoona campus up to the top of Wopsy Mountain (about 2500'), it is now snowing up there with no accums to note at the time. Still raining down here but mixing looked like it was getting down to about at least 1800' if not lower (I'm at around 1300' in my new neighborhood). Temps from here at home to the top went from 37-33ºF. Winds are also starting to kick up as well. This was/is a very impressive storm and it delivered a lot of rain here today. I know I was thinking the same thing about seeing this in January/Feb. I think this bomb would've had a shot even a month from now. Today happened to be the anniversary of the 10/29/2011 snowstorm.
  6. Snow evident on some of the western MD cams.. especially this one. It's pretty impressive in motion with the wind driving the snow sideways. This particular one is on Keyser's ridge which is around 2800' or so. Could be a sign that some of the highest Laurel ridges in SW PA could be starting to see the same thing soon (rain mixing with and going over to snow).
  7. Been a mostly rainy day here with the height of this thing looking to be looming in far southern PA as the precip shield gets it's act together in response to the rapidly developing system. Only about a 5-10 min drive from my new place to get to about 2500' at the top of the mountain.. might have to go on a snow patrol later tonight.
  8. Judging from their AFD they do appear that they will be considering watches but want to see where the primary deform precip really sets up as the low bombs out off the Mid Atlantic coast, which would still be in the Sunday-Sunday night timeframe. I wouldn't anticipate many flooding issues outside of the poor drainage/small stream variety... flash flood guidance is still quite high around most of the region and 12 & 24 hour values for headwaters are generally over 3-4 inches to reach flood stage threshold looking at the headwater guidance. This event should draw a pretty big response on the medium tributaries and the Susquehanna with us getting into late fall and not much vegetation to suck up the rainfall.. but I don't expect major flooding problems. Def a rain event that can be used as a good portion of the northeastern US has been fairly dry as of late. This major storm system looks to finally be the wakeup call to let us know that oh yea.. November 1st is this coming Wednesday after what has seemed like an eternally warm October til this past week. The Laurel's may also see their first measurable snowfall of the season on the tail end of this very robust storm system as well. How noteworthy that ends up being will likely hinge on how far back the deform precip hangs in central PA. Either way, I would look for the rain to end as some snow/snow showers in the high terrain in SW PA and northern tier.
  9. Pretty solid frost here this morning to bring in the beginning of October, temps were around 35ºF. Sensible weather around here looks to continue being generally dormant the next 6-10 days with moderation back to above normal temps. I'm sure the expanse of minor short term drought conditions (D0) will be expanding in the area with this week's drought monitor report... it's certainly been a dry span of weather the last month.
  10. Me either, I'm not gonna rule out the turn out to sea scenario... but unfortunately it appears quite unlikely right now and I could say with reasonable confidence that the potential for Irma being a second consecutive major hurricane strike on the US is pretty darn high. When looking at the general model consensus there just isn't really much of any "good" scenario. If the hurricane eventually impacts Hispianola and Cuba per the further south Euro take on things, that would certainly weaken the hurricane and the high end impact potential on the US. Of course the tradeoff is the impact to those island countries and the probable major damage and death toll from flooding and other impacts and these areas are extremely vulnerable. Plus a US impact is still implied anyways and it would still be a formidable storm. A further north solution like the GFS will probably ensure Irma maintains it's very organized structure and stays a major hurricane and probably a cat 4 or greater all the way into the Bahamas to wherever it is when the progged turn north starts. Given the sharp turn north progged, I would think the influence of the trough will elongate the storm and increase shear some which would probably take the top off the insane winds in that scenario. Even so, if it ended up running east of Florida and hitting the Carolinas, I think it would still be a major hurricane that causes big issues... but perhaps not a 4 or greater. If it gets directly to Florida before the turn happens, that's not going to be pretty. I personally don't buy the Euro solution of being so far south as to have Irma be directly affected by Cuba, but the GFS might be too far north and turning a bit too quick. Just lots of scenarios to sort out with this. You still can't really rule any one thing out yet. And it is certainly very much in play that this eventually affects our sensible weather in PA as well. Really amazing to watch this storm and just how strong it has gotten. The northern islands (Barbuda, Virgin Islands, etc) are likely to get this hurricane at what ultimately could be it's peak intensity. The island of Barbuda will be taking a direct hit from the eyewall during the next couple hours. It will be interesting to see how much this hurricane maintains it's strength the next few days if it can stay away from major land influences. Maintaining Cat 5 or even Cat 4 for an extended period of time is hard to do, but this hurricane is very well organized and has been displaying annular characteristics. It will also be moving into ever warmer waters and a continued low shear environment.
  11. Ugh I gotta correct my previous post, I must have been looking at this mornings 0z Euro instead of the 12z one.. just realized today's 12z op run was out to sea and a much different look at 500mb with closed low over New England. But otherwise my thoughts on this storm in my previous post still stand.
  12. Certainly will have to keep an eye on Irma throughout the upcoming week as the potential certainly exists for impacts on the East Coast and in our region as well. 12z GFS and Euro op runs had direct PA impacts today, GFS taking the center more NW into Ohio while Euro is looking to take it over eastern PA outside its range. Obviously way too early to even speculate on any details regarding potential impacts but I think it's certainly prudent to note the potential is there. Given lead time and skill level with track forecasting, pretty much everything's in play from recurve to not being pulled up and ending up under Florida into the Gulf and everything in between. With that said, my thoughts on this at the moment are unfortunately that I think it's more likely this doesn't get pulled up and heads towards more of a Florida impact/Gulf positioning than a recurve solution that doesn't impact someone...with something in between certainly a pretty distinct possibility. Models indicate anomalously high heights to our north and lack of a notable approaching trough that generally turn these things away more often than not... so that concerns me. That's generally something you see in place to turn one inland from the east coast (ala a Fran,isabel, etc) vs a glance or recurve scenario. But all we can do is monitor the next few days as minor changes in upstream features in ensuing model runs could provide us with a completely different track scenario and/or a lack of run to run continuity with respect to the eventual track.
  13. I agree that the mayor may not have been the most eloquent in his statements and explanations but I'm not sure how you would do a full scale evacuation of that large of a metro area in this circumstance given the lead timeframe without risking many more lives of people on the road that ultimately would get stranded. The Houston/Galveston region was away from the initial traditional hurricane threat of winds/storm surge so I also wonder how the turnout of a city-wide evacuation on the basis of forecasted heavy excessive rainfall over several days would have been. This storm is truly an unprecedented flooding event with impacts that have likely not been seen before in a lot of circumstances. It's also not a localized region of 10-20"+ rain.. I think you could put a large chunk of CTP's CWA within the expanse of this extremely excessive rain (kinda scary to think about). But at any rate that's a tremendous amount of water going into that watershed over the entire Houston metro area and surrounding regions... and it's not even done raining yet. It's amazing to look at Houston's radar and see how socked in with heavy rain they are once again this evening. As for the local area, some of southern and southeastern PA could get impacted with some rainfall associated with what may or may not be Irma coming up off the eastern seaboard tomorrow.
  14. That line of storms early evening yesterday did a pretty good number on Blair County.. specifically the Tyrone area where the damage included a roof being blown off a building in town and a majority of the town losing power. http://www.wearecentralpa.com/news/storm-rolls-through-causing-damage-throughout-the-region/794438180 I was just getting back into Altoona right when the storm was arriving and got a nice look at the shelf cloud and drove through some pretty good wind gusts and dodging some tree branches. Was working yesterday and never got a good look at the parameters for this yesterday but the newspaper did have one of the local mets mentioning relatively dry air aloft yesterday, which would imply a greater potential for downbursts. Looked at the archived meosoanalysis data and noted cold pool aloft with the progressing shortwave at 500mb of temps around -10 to -12ºC and modest but not crazy Downdraft CAPE values. We've had a good bit of rain this year locally but not a lot of actual severe weather, so this was probably one of the biggest events of the summer in the severe department.
  15. Just checking in, it's been a pretty busy summer for me as I bought a house and have moved. I'm still in Central PA though.. in fact I'm only about 4 miles down the road from where I was haha so it should be business as usual when winter rolls around. Been a wet summer here, I don't know if I've ever saw the grass so green so late into the summer... it's still growing like crazy. We usually get a dry spell at some point during a normal summer but not this one so far.