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About MAG5035

  • Birthday 03/14/1986

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  • Location:
    Altoona, PA

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  1. Me either, I'm not gonna rule out the turn out to sea scenario... but unfortunately it appears quite unlikely right now and I could say with reasonable confidence that the potential for Irma being a second consecutive major hurricane strike on the US is pretty darn high. When looking at the general model consensus there just isn't really much of any "good" scenario. If the hurricane eventually impacts Hispianola and Cuba per the further south Euro take on things, that would certainly weaken the hurricane and the high end impact potential on the US. Of course the tradeoff is the impact to those island countries and the probable major damage and death toll from flooding and other impacts and these areas are extremely vulnerable. Plus a US impact is still implied anyways and it would still be a formidable storm. A further north solution like the GFS will probably ensure Irma maintains it's very organized structure and stays a major hurricane and probably a cat 4 or greater all the way into the Bahamas to wherever it is when the progged turn north starts. Given the sharp turn north progged, I would think the influence of the trough will elongate the storm and increase shear some which would probably take the top off the insane winds in that scenario. Even so, if it ended up running east of Florida and hitting the Carolinas, I think it would still be a major hurricane that causes big issues... but perhaps not a 4 or greater. If it gets directly to Florida before the turn happens, that's not going to be pretty. I personally don't buy the Euro solution of being so far south as to have Irma be directly affected by Cuba, but the GFS might be too far north and turning a bit too quick. Just lots of scenarios to sort out with this. You still can't really rule any one thing out yet. And it is certainly very much in play that this eventually affects our sensible weather in PA as well. Really amazing to watch this storm and just how strong it has gotten. The northern islands (Barbuda, Virgin Islands, etc) are likely to get this hurricane at what ultimately could be it's peak intensity. The island of Barbuda will be taking a direct hit from the eyewall during the next couple hours. It will be interesting to see how much this hurricane maintains it's strength the next few days if it can stay away from major land influences. Maintaining Cat 5 or even Cat 4 for an extended period of time is hard to do, but this hurricane is very well organized and has been displaying annular characteristics. It will also be moving into ever warmer waters and a continued low shear environment.
  2. Ugh I gotta correct my previous post, I must have been looking at this mornings 0z Euro instead of the 12z one.. just realized today's 12z op run was out to sea and a much different look at 500mb with closed low over New England. But otherwise my thoughts on this storm in my previous post still stand.
  3. Certainly will have to keep an eye on Irma throughout the upcoming week as the potential certainly exists for impacts on the East Coast and in our region as well. 12z GFS and Euro op runs had direct PA impacts today, GFS taking the center more NW into Ohio while Euro is looking to take it over eastern PA outside its range. Obviously way too early to even speculate on any details regarding potential impacts but I think it's certainly prudent to note the potential is there. Given lead time and skill level with track forecasting, pretty much everything's in play from recurve to not being pulled up and ending up under Florida into the Gulf and everything in between. With that said, my thoughts on this at the moment are unfortunately that I think it's more likely this doesn't get pulled up and heads towards more of a Florida impact/Gulf positioning than a recurve solution that doesn't impact someone...with something in between certainly a pretty distinct possibility. Models indicate anomalously high heights to our north and lack of a notable approaching trough that generally turn these things away more often than not... so that concerns me. That's generally something you see in place to turn one inland from the east coast (ala a Fran,isabel, etc) vs a glance or recurve scenario. But all we can do is monitor the next few days as minor changes in upstream features in ensuing model runs could provide us with a completely different track scenario and/or a lack of run to run continuity with respect to the eventual track.
  4. I agree that the mayor may not have been the most eloquent in his statements and explanations but I'm not sure how you would do a full scale evacuation of that large of a metro area in this circumstance given the lead timeframe without risking many more lives of people on the road that ultimately would get stranded. The Houston/Galveston region was away from the initial traditional hurricane threat of winds/storm surge so I also wonder how the turnout of a city-wide evacuation on the basis of forecasted heavy excessive rainfall over several days would have been. This storm is truly an unprecedented flooding event with impacts that have likely not been seen before in a lot of circumstances. It's also not a localized region of 10-20"+ rain.. I think you could put a large chunk of CTP's CWA within the expanse of this extremely excessive rain (kinda scary to think about). But at any rate that's a tremendous amount of water going into that watershed over the entire Houston metro area and surrounding regions... and it's not even done raining yet. It's amazing to look at Houston's radar and see how socked in with heavy rain they are once again this evening. As for the local area, some of southern and southeastern PA could get impacted with some rainfall associated with what may or may not be Irma coming up off the eastern seaboard tomorrow.
  5. That line of storms early evening yesterday did a pretty good number on Blair County.. specifically the Tyrone area where the damage included a roof being blown off a building in town and a majority of the town losing power. http://www.wearecentralpa.com/news/storm-rolls-through-causing-damage-throughout-the-region/794438180 I was just getting back into Altoona right when the storm was arriving and got a nice look at the shelf cloud and drove through some pretty good wind gusts and dodging some tree branches. Was working yesterday and never got a good look at the parameters for this yesterday but the newspaper did have one of the local mets mentioning relatively dry air aloft yesterday, which would imply a greater potential for downbursts. Looked at the archived meosoanalysis data and noted cold pool aloft with the progressing shortwave at 500mb of temps around -10 to -12ºC and modest but not crazy Downdraft CAPE values. We've had a good bit of rain this year locally but not a lot of actual severe weather, so this was probably one of the biggest events of the summer in the severe department.
  6. Just checking in, it's been a pretty busy summer for me as I bought a house and have moved. I'm still in Central PA though.. in fact I'm only about 4 miles down the road from where I was haha so it should be business as usual when winter rolls around. Been a wet summer here, I don't know if I've ever saw the grass so green so late into the summer... it's still growing like crazy. We usually get a dry spell at some point during a normal summer but not this one so far.
  7. Had at least dime sized hail or so here at home with the early afternoon storm, which eventually became the tornado warned storm in the next county over in Huntingdon. I was in State College at the time so I missed it. I've seen multiple pics/videos of accumulated hail out of that one in Huntingdon County...like this out of Alexandria, PA (Credit). Outside of the mini heat wave two weeks ago this has been a really unsettled and cool month.
  8. Definitely flood advisory worthy conditions around here this morning. Some small streams are out, poor drainage flooding, significant runoff, etc. This ended up being a pretty impressive rainstorm overnight into the first part of this morning. Oh yea, and here is that -NAO we were waiting for all winter.
  9. Probably windier here this afternoon than it was with those storms yesterday haha.
  10. The wind was mostly a non-issue around here with the line of severe storms but certainly a heavy rainfall with pretty robust runoff. The next valley over into NW Huntingdon County was a different story though. Apparently the wind got tapped down there.. as some spots were a bit of a wreck. Route 45 between Spruce Creek and Franklinville (roughly 20ish miles SW of State College) had multiple trees down. The one road that enters into Rothrock State Forest a couple miles north of the village of Spruce Creek had approx at my count 8 pines that were sheared by the winds (definitely straight line). One of the trees was a 75-100ft Hemlock tree. Fortunately none of the big Hemlocks around the place my family has down there across the creek from the state forest/picnic area got taken out.. cuz they likely would have hit the house. My lowball estimate on windspeed would be 60-70mph or so type winds. I didn't see the type of widespread downed trees on that Route 45 corridor that would indicate to me that the winds were much higher than that. Still though.. it was pretty notable.
  11. Just starting to get hit with this line of storms, it's already been pretty breezy out ahead of it. Def am somewhat worried about some of the pine trees. At any rate, damaging winds and a potential QLCS spinup appears to be the main threat at this juncture with this severe line. Shear and helicity are very high in central PA as per mesoanalysis. Fortunately CAPE numbers are fairly low, lending to a good bit of cloud cover over most of the region today. This could have really been a significant tornado threat otherwise with good heating and probable discrete supercells. Will have to continue to keep an eye out as this presses towards the Susquehanna Valley.
  12. Here's a GIF of some of the experimental data from the new GOES 16 satellite..showing our next system developing in the midwest (might take a minute for the loop to roll smoothly). This particular product is a mid-level WV loop. College of Dupage has this and also a few IR and visible products available as well as several zoomed in regions. The northern Mid-Atlantic region has PA nicely centered and close-up. The resolution is very impressive and you can really visualize features in motion with 5 min frames. This is also just an inkling of the capabilities of this new satellite. Tracking tropical, severe, and winter storms should be interesting as it becomes officially operational.
  13. Got a new Sping Central PA thread going for our non-hibernating posters.
  14. Pretty wet week ahead with two systems slated to affect PA.
  15. That particular map was generated off of Saturday's 12z European run, which had a major snowstorm. And that tweet was put out early Saturday evening. Typical social media post of a single model map that I'm sure has gotten the rounds from being shared. There was nothing else at the time that had that solution and currently no guidance has anything close to that. After bit of a shot of colder air mid-late week this week, we look to be finally starting to moderate temps back to where it should be for the late March into early April timeframe.