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MAG5035

Meteorologist
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About MAG5035

  • Birthday 03/14/1986

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KAOO
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Altoona, PA

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  1. Just finished and posted this in the old thread before I saw the winter one was made, haha. Speaking specifically about our region (C-PA), a suppressed storm track would be a bigger concern to me than a cutting one with the establishment of a -NAO regime of the caliber thats been advertised solidly on the guidance (-3 to -4). Now truth be told, this is a great looking winter pattern upcoming for the eastern US once it does get truly established… which seems to be still in the realm of just beyond D7-10. So big question to me is storm track. The strong Greenland block would certainly suppress it, but getting completely overwhelmed with arctic air probably doesn’t help us either in the snow department. Being somewhere in between would be ideal of course. The -PNA is generally forecast to slowly neutralize but stay negative, which in this instance may be a good thing of keeping us in a more active gradient zone. There’d be great potential for something big if we were to line up a coastal with eastern CONUS cold in place and a -NAO induced suppressed (and blocked) storm track coupled with a very warm NW Atlantic SST wise. What also comes with a blocky pattern? Model mayhem trying to handle the individual features so I’d be looking for a lot of that as well
  2. Speaking specifically about our region (C-PA), a suppressed storm track would be a bigger concern to me than a cutting one with the establishment of a -NAO regime of the caliber thats been advertised solidly on the guidance (-3 to -4). Now truth be told, this is a great looking winter pattern upcoming for the eastern US once it does get truly established… which seems to be still in the realm of just beyond D7-10. So big question to me is storm track. The strong Greenland block would certainly suppress it, but getting completely overwhelmed with arctic air probably doesn’t help us either in the snow department. Being somewhere in between would be ideal of course. The -PNA is generally forecast to slowly neutralize but stay negative, which in this instance may be a good thing of keeping us in a more active gradient zone. There’d be great potential for something big if we were to line up a coastal with eastern CONUS cold in place and a -NAO induced suppressed (and blocked) storm track coupled with a very warm NW Atlantic SST wise. What also comes with a blocky pattern? Model mayhem trying to handle the individual features so I’d be looking for a lot of that as well.
  3. It took awhile to find the time it was logged but apparently my WS-5000 logged a 60.2 mph daily max wind gust at 3:46 this afternoon. There were some decent gusts at that time of the day but not sure about that high of one. I have notifications set to alert for gusts >50mph and that gust was the only one to trigger that today. I suppose it’s possible.
  4. Definitely a T lol, with 2-4” drifts out of the water spouts. Pretty unique as far as thunderstorms go. Wasn’t much wind that mixed down as we’re locked in with cool air damming. It’s finally cracked 40° after being in the high 30s all day.
  5. Well, that’s one way to get frozen in late November I guess… Only hailstorm I’ve seen this year and it’s on Thanksgiving weekend (with decent thunder/lightning).
  6. You guys and your AC’s haha. Meanwhile my north facing snow patch is hanging in there. It did get to 54 here today (with low humidity).
  7. The big issue I see getting into the opening week of December or so is despite the good teleconnection progs in the NAO/AO/EPO realm, the development of a pretty negative PNA in the interim is going to drive up the SE ridging. I think the evolution to this was probably a factor in losing the chance of our weekend system being anything wintry, that and the complete loss of a high pressure to the north that was a key factor in the wintry solutions several days ago. In contrast to last December, which also had a really negative PNA (much more negative at one point than what is currently being forecasted on model progs), we have the other teleconnections looking half decent going forward. We also have MJO influence that is currently in Phase 6, that should progress into colder phases (for NDJ) 7 and perhaps 8 eventually. I think we’ll get to where we need to for a good period of potential winter mischief, but it probably comes at some point during or more likely… after the first week of December.
  8. It does appear the 12z Euro ensemble maintains a storm signal in the Thanksgiving weekend timeframe. Really not that bad of an ensemble signal considering the range either.
  9. Forgot to post this pic from going hunting yesterday morning. This is from Rothrock State Forest in NW Huntingdon Co. The snow shrunk a good bit of course, but there is still a majority of the ground that has a pack today here. Also received an inch of new snow in the early morning hours today from the LES/upslope.
  10. Canadian has the storm but much slower than the GFS, thus allowing the high pressure to position too far east and have maybe an interior ice set up on retreating cold with a primary low heading to the lakes instead of a redeveloping coastal. One thing about the Canadian progged high is it is much stronger (~1048mb). Something is definitely afoot here in this Thanksgiving weekend timeframe. It seems models all have the pressing high that probably eliminates the continuation of whatever moderating trend towards average we have around mid-week next week, and they all currently have some kind of system... So we’ll see if that continues. Funny I just made a post about the whole coastal thing last week, since the popular opinion for this winter is a reduced threat of them. The 12z GFS scenario sort of illustrates the potential I alluded to in that post if we do line things up for a coastal.. especially in the early part of the winter.
  11. Okay, now we’re pinging here. We’ll see if the snow fights back with some of the last heavier parts of the precip shield but that 5.5” might end up being max depth.
  12. 5.5” now, really close to verifying a warning. The last heavy burst was also very close to sounding the pinger alert with really rimed stuff mixed in. In a lighter area at the moment (still light snow)
  13. Just measured 4.7” with continued moderate to heavy rates. Some sign on radar of mixing trying break into this area from the SW, but the best precip rates are also about to move on from here as well. The damage is done though either way, what a nice snowfall event.
  14. Heavy snow right now with 2.5” on the ground as well. It’s went from a more variable rate and occasional burst of half dollar flakes to that classic mid-storm flake size (smaller but piling up) Temp steady near 31ºF and most if not all roads are caved. 3-4” seems like a pretty big likelihood at this point here. Starting to wonder if this overachieves and takes a crack at 6”.
  15. Update: 1.4”, 30.7/30°F, and moderate rate. There’s been some nice heavy bursts of snow at times.
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