MAG5035

Meteorologist
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About MAG5035

  • Birthday 03/14/1986

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KAOO
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Altoona, PA

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  1. They probably just should have instituted the statewide order right off the bat like most other states have been doing. The last couple days some counties were asking the state to include themselves into the order, like Somerset and Cameron.. where Somerset had a few cases and Cameron only had 1. It seems like a lot of people don't get past the titles of the articles and assume that stay at home means everything will shut down, so there will probably be another run at the store. I think the official "stay at home" could give authorities the ability to enforce the order at least from an informing standpoint, such as pulling someone over to see where they're going and such. But don't believe this state is actually enforcing by actual fines or anything like that right now. Neighboring states like MD and DC are threatening violators of their stay at home orders with a misdemeanor and up to a year in jail (DC no more than 90 days) and a $5000 fine. I see the FL governor finally issued a statewide order today. A little late for that week of so the spring break revelers were on the beaches.
  2. Visible satellite imagery (https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-northeast-dcphase-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined) shows very clearly the low cloud deck still anchored in over eastern PA this afternoon even after clearing in the mid-high levels. You can see a little bit of erosion of the low clouds from the west and south but we're only a couple hours from sunset and the east probably isn't clearing out by then. The sun did bust out here mid-afternoon and we're in the 60s, but we don't have the high winds that are occurring in the Laurel's and especially west of there in PBZ's zones. The full mixing there is getting temps way into the 70s, even JST is 72 currently.
  3. Well for this week in "it figures", hey we have blocking up top! Unfortunately, probably too much so in the case of this potential April 1st event. -PNA western trough and positive tilt alignment also help keep the system suppressed and not really allow for it to amp and try to come up. Even if it does throw up precip, the temps are likely to be really marginal as per usual this time of the year absent a significantly anomalous cold airmass.
  4. Quite likely to be some flooding issues around here this evening with this last batch of heavy rain/thunderstorms moving in.
  5. Tornado warning just issued coming into western PA from Ohio, portions of northern Washington and western Allegheny Counties. You SW PA folks got quite the severe setup, at least on paper (Mesoanalysis). Surface CAPEs over 1500 and Mixed Layer capes near 1000 coupled with modest helicity and pretty good shear/lift are putting out EHI values and lighting up the tornado parameter products. I'd be very watchful of that line of storms as it presses into SW PA and also some potential discrete storms esp south of the city. Of more immediate attention, the hook echo portion of the tornado warned storm looks to be taking aim at the southern suburbs of Pittsburgh eventually (Bethel Park, Mount Lebanon, etc). The north side of this cell likely has significant hail in it as well. Velocity isn't showing a concise couplet but the pronounced hook echo is definitely indicating rotation in this storm.
  6. This next batch of torrential downpours is here. The elevated instability is definitely present as there's been several cloud to ground strikes.
  7. Maybe we'll have actual winter weather and snow chances in December for a change if some of these rumblings about an eventual Nina come to fruition. Most CPC guidance is pointed generally neutral but the CFS v2 has been solidly in nina territory later this year. Just a little bit of time to hone that one in haha.
  8. Can’t relate on the underachieving rainfall. Just got crushed with a torrential downpour with some thunder. Lots of standing water in the yard and one of the underground drains at the bottom of the yard was erupting like a geyser. First time I’ve seen that since I moved here a few years ago. It must have been fairly rainy earlier this morning. @canderson I hope your family member is doing better.
  9. QPF aside, the two systems would have been likely examples of systems we would have all scored from had this occurred in the dead of winter. The pattern setup is just enough to finally run a couple systems under us but we need significant anomalous cold (compared to March climo) to go with that this time of the year which we don't have.
  10. So this is happening about 10 miles from here... and probably at the top of the mountain 4 miles from here as well. It's raining here. Might see stuff like this further up in central and north central at similar elevations.
  11. Have had some precip falling for a little while, looks to be mostly or all rain.
  12. I don't think this storm is necessarily a loss track-wise, the main issue is what I mentioned the other day about precip intensity vs very marginal temperatures. Although, I suppose a bump NW with this initial shield of WAA precip doesn't help with the earlier portion of this event where the best chance for initial snowfall is.. esp central and SE. It's chilly and quite dry in front of this system, like last week. The snow potential on the lead up this week was certainly viable.. If we had a solid slug of moderate to heavy precip targeting the region late tonight into tomorrow morning, most of us would likely be receiving an accumulating wet snowfall. The problem is a separation from the initial precip which seems destined more toward the north central and the blossoming precip associated with the developing coastal low. Timing of the latter is later tomorrow, when the strong high (which doesn't have extremely cold air to be tapped anyways) is off to the east and the delay in the onset of more decent precip allows for daytime warming of the already highly marginal low level temps. Thus, we still have a viable snow threat in the north central region (esp at higher elevations) where this initial wave of precip will impact the most and where it will remain just barely cold enough as the coastal takes over. Unfortunately for the central and Sus Valley, whatever potential flakes may be seen is going to be dependent on if we can develop a band of WAA precip. Early looks at the HRRR haven't been too enthused about that. The radar looks okay (much better for the north central eventually) but one has to be mindful of the dry air in place. Just another case of close but not enough... fundamentally the same problems are still there. I still think the continued +AO coupled with the quietly persistent -PNA is outdoing what the recently turned negative EPO regime could have done for our region without that counterbalance. The AO is at nearly +5 right now, and the pattern alignment over the CONUS favoring eastern ridging at 500mb won't allow for this system to really amp. The EPO may have helped enough to finally get something under us, but we're not cold enough...and we're way late in the season to rely on marginal. The system later this week may well take about the same track as tomorrow's system, but it doesn't appear that it will have enough cold to work with outside of the higher north central.
  13. Models and ensembles are still generally supportive of this snow threat on Monday, which I think could be in the cards for most in here. The Euro still leads the way but has edged down accums and shifted north a tad. Some of the runs this week on that model were looking March/November 2018 worthy. Obviously the elevated central and north central parts of the state stand the best chance of seeing any kind of decent accumulations, but we could see accumulating potential even in the Sus Valley. Surface temps are going to be very marginal and it seems that timing is heading towards most of this event being in the daytime though, especially east. I think the biggest thing I see from the models is the snow potential appears to be rate driven. The column temps are there enough if we have a wave of heavier precipitation, and we're going to need a several hour burst of heavy precip to realize any white on the ground with the surface temps.
  14. I had a light coating on the grass and cold surfaces, 0.2” ish. It was snowing decent for a little while last night. It seemed just a couple hundred feet of elevation made the difference between that and a half inch to an inch here off the Laurels, and once below about 1100-1200’ (I’m at about 1300’) there was little to no accum. The Allegheny Front is white of course, I didn’t get a chance to run up and see how much was up there.
  15. Me too lol, I haven't gotten to put mine out since I made it.