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MAG5035

Meteorologist
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About MAG5035

  • Birthday 03/14/1986

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KAOO
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  • Location:
    Bellwood, PA

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  1. It's not too bad, I can finally see everything now... it's like 3-4"ish where your at. Track is similar to 0z, a little bit east once it's heading toward New England. Much different precip field though. Pretty much the middle third of PA is in the 3"+.. with 6" zone starting just north of UNV and into the north central/NE as you see on the snowmap above. H-burg looked to be in the 1-3" range. The Euro was decidedly colder aloft at 850 and 925 today. Most of this accumulation undoubtedly comes in the 108hr timeframe, where the Euro hangs a significant deform (0.5-0.75" in 6 hr) just east of dead center thru PA up into southern NY state with a 988mb low residing just off the Delmarva. Comparing with the 0z.. that run had similar low placement but a minimum of precip in that same area with a broader heavier precip shield way to the NW. Despite the eventual strong representation of the surface and upper level lows, the precip development has seemed a bit sloppy. Both GFS and Euro run an initial wave out just barely ahead of this deepening coastal instead of an organized continuous precip shield. Organized heavier precip gets into PA as the low gets to the coast and heads up off the Delmarva. Both models were somewhat more progressive today but the GFS really had heavier precip southeast. Given the progged major fetch off the ocean I wonder if models are underdoing the precip coverage some. At any rate there's still a good bit of lead time for this (D4-5 timeframe), so I'm not putting too much stock in the details of precip and amounts.
  2. Yea I wasn't going detail for detail with that one or anything, just saying if we had a half decent cold airmass in place in the NE/Mid Atlantic for this we'd be easily talking a big time widespread snowstorm... at pretty much the same date as last year. With no real cold in place it's going to be limited to interior locations with some elevation. Don't go thinking your sitting on the sideline for this quite yet either haha. Today's one of those days where I really hate not having a rapid update Euro access. To top that off, I still don't have the new 12z Euro data when I should have had it like 40 mins ago. It seemed like it was good for interior PA, but since anyone in other forums post maps that are region specific to wherever they're posting.. the best I can do for the moment is present this one posted out of the New England thread. Looks pretty good for central PA. I can only imagine 925mb temps improved this run.. cuz that was a limiting factor in the overnight run.
  3. This storm had my intrigue the last few days but didn't really grab my attention snow-wise as it looked too warm. It has my attention now. Euro has been flirting with the wet snow bomb solution for central PA and it looks like the GFS has made a move with that thinking, and one upped it by actually being cold enough to involve the Sus Valley with more of a SE storm track vs the Euro. It's also weaker vs the 0z Euro. 12z Canadian coming in maintains a deep low coming into SE VA and then hugging the coast more up toward New England (similar to the Euro), with p-types transitioning to snow in the higher elevation west central counties. While I want to be clear in saying this is about as marginal as you get with trying to get a snowstorm in terms of the thermal layers, there is a reasonable possibility that this materializes in some form. My money is on the north central/Laurels/higher elevations of the AOO/UNV/IPT corridor having the highest potential. Specifically the Laurels... which are the highest and likely to have the highest QPF. The track is fantastic.. if we had a colder airmass in place we'd be talking some kind of a 1/23/16 redux. What makes this possible is the maturity of the storm, which is progged to have a healthy upper level representation (such as a strong and well tracked 850 low). Also supposed to be a strong storm as well.. the Euro/Canadian have a near 980 low getting into the Carolinas/SE VA. So while there isn't the strong high up to the north, we still have a major gradient with the very strong low.. which will help pull down cold(er) air especially as the low gets to the coast and turns making for more of a NE flow. Speaking of gradients, the 850 u wind anomaly is insane... with -5 and greater standard dev over most of PA. That implies tremendous E and NE flow off of the Atlantic and a huge influx of moisture. Those highly anomalous st dev numbers are of the variety we saw with last years storm.
  4. This winter is something else. After we get a couple minor snow/mix events with arctic cold lingering underneath a raging 500 ridge a week ago, we look to finally have a really nice looking 500mb pattern for a slow moving coastal storm near the D4-6 timeframe (just in time for the one year anniversary of the big one last year)...only this time the arctic cold is evacuated from the conus (and a lot of Canada as well). We're left with what will probably be mostly a rainstorm for a majority of the area. Unfortunately that's the risk of running an undercutting storm track under a major Canadian high height center without any western US or Pac ridging. You end up with an airmass source region that is marine vs continental in nature (i.e. Pacific air). However, given that we are getting into the climo low point for the year and this looks to be a fairly well developed coastal system that takes honestly a really nice Central PA track with the associated 850 and 700 lows.. I wouldn't be surprised if there is just barely enough cold air manufactured for the higher elevation interior central counties to make for some kind of wet snow issue. Euro kinda leaves the door open for that with it's solution while the GFS seemed to have a stronger, more easterly flow from the Atlantic. Will have to monitor that. I also saw the 12z Euro D9-10+ bomb. Not gonna comment or get too crazy on it for now.. but you see that the 500mb pattern evolves to a major western US/western Canada ridge to set up the big eastern trough and nice alignment to run a coastal. We haven't really seen any kind of a lasting or major western ridge this winter to date, so we'll see what happens as this timeframe gets closer.
  5. Never really got any more precip after early yesterday afternoon. So pretty much a coating of snow (I'm calling it 0.2" haha) along with a trace of freezing rain that was enough to make for some hard to see black ice patches last night. Can see the Allegheny ridges out the window to my west that were socked in the low clouds/fog most of yesterday evening are all white with ice on the trees. I'm glad this event yesterday didn't come with a more moisture laden slug of precipitation.. it would've really been a mess given the CAD setup.
  6. Got a coating of snow with the first batch of precip this morning. Looks like some more precip to move in later this afternoon so will see if it stays all snow or if we end up getting a mix.
  7. I saw a couple good signs in the LR with an MJO pulse finally appearing after spending most of the last month or so in the circle.. pretty well agreed upon amongst the models to go into Phase 1... which is supportive of cold over the eastern conus. Also been some rumblings about the stratosphere and forecasts do show perturbation of the polar vortex. Both of these factors come with a lag time of course. I would say the cold should come back to the US toward the end of the month but it may not necessarily be our end of the country to start. GFS/Euro show lots of low heights developing in the western US all the way up through Alaska in the day 6-10 timeframe.. which eventually starts to undercut the responding very high heights over the eastern US/eastern Canada. 12z Euro is out of it's mind by D10, have you seen the 500 height anomalies? A blocking 570dm (!!!) height center over Hudson Bay with low heights undercutting. Obviously, it doesn't have to be quite as extreme as that solution.. but I do think a key to getting the storm pattern to work in our favor this winter is going to have to come from a pattern such as this one where we have NAO blocking or high heights in Canada to suppress the storm pattern. I'm beginning to think that the PNA is going to generally remain in it's negative phase for the foreseeable future.. perhaps neutralizing but I just don't see a reversal to any kind of commanding PNA ridge. SSTs in the north Pac are way different than the last few years with a large area of below average of temps all the way from east Asia to the US west coast. It's probably a factor in this extremely active storm track that's been slamming the west. This storm track is also quite supressed.. usually a winter with traditional La Nina tendencies (I know that we're working more of an ENSO neutral) would favor the Pac NW moreso than California and some of the intermountain west states east of there (NV,UT,CO, etc). A lot of these storms have been going NW of here since there has been southeast ridging without any downstream or over the top blocking. I could see how we could suddenly get buried on the regular if all these storms and associated moisture start undercutting all the way across the country. It's going to be interesting to see what happens getting towards February.
  8. Speaking of mixing heights, the wind kicked up around here finally and it's now about 60 haha.
  9. Yea I wish we had a stronger wave to attack this high. Things have really weakened with this first wave vs several days ago. Probably gonna be the last opportunity for snow til late in the month by the looks of it. We really need a reshuffling of the deck with this storm pattern we've been in all winter. Meanwhile in the west... http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/6-feet-of-snowfall-in-1-week-forces-colorado-ski-resort-to-close/70000540
  10. Only 45ºF here so far today and generally cloudy. Not a heat wave but still not too bad out other than all of the mud. I agree that best precip is probably gonna run the southern third on the I-70/US 30 line and it probably isn't going to be a very wide corridor. The strong high pressure centering more in NY State/southern New England vs Maine/Southern Quebec could argue for best precip to be pressed down even more to along the mason-dixon line like the 12z GFS/ 0z Euro kind of suggest (will have to see new Euro soon). Canadian looked similar to the NAM. Like Tuesday morning this looks like another precipitation wave that will only deliver a general tenth or two of precip... probably with worse ratios since temps at 850 and 700 are fairly warm and could in fact end up being an issue wrt precip type in the southern tier. Surface and 925s on the other hand look plenty cold with the placement of the surface high. Will prob have to watch for a thin stripe of heavier precip (.25-.50" range most likely) where the best forcing is plus orographic. The southern Laurel's would thus seem like the best bet to see more than what I think will be a general T-2", but they may have p-type issues from the aforementioned marginal 850-700mb layer.
  11. The ice reports I saw via PNS statement earlier today were ASOS stations at the airports, except for State College.. which was measured at the NWS office. Didn't see any spotter or social media reports in there. Ice can be hard to measure accurately...but I wouldn't doubt any >0.25" reports up in your region. At any rate all reports that were included in the PNS were of the advisory criteria. I was surprised that CTP didn't upgrade the northeastern most counties to warnings like they had been considering but then I remembered that ice criteria for a warning went up to 0.5" last year for the top two tiers of CTP counties (which includes northern Clinton/Lycoming). The accumulation criteria really didn't matter much in the end though because the impact of how easy the rain froze on the very cold roadways and sidewalks ended up being quite high. January's a pretty rough month to have an ice setup given we're getting into the coldest temps of the year climo-wise and have little solar help via the sun. So when these CAD events set up with a retreating antecedent arctic airmass, you know the C-PA ridge and valley region quite often holds it longer than forecasted.
  12. Yea probably the Great Appalachian storm of 1950, which occurred over Thanksgiving. 20-30+ in western PA, likely one of the worst ice storms ever in parts of central PA, and still a top 5 flooding event at stations along the West Branch and Juniata River basins. Def a one of a kind storm.. one that went from the Carolina coast and bent into western PA as it bombed out. The moisture it pulled up must have been tremendous. This old pic was from around here (a part of Altoona). All that ice and then several inches of snow on top.
  13. Interstate 80 eastbound in Centre County between Bellefonte (161) and Lamar (173) is still closed from a fatal wreck that occurred about 1am last night. Weather not officially a factor yet but a speed restriction to 45mph at the time and black ice areas were noted in the article I read. http://wjactv.com/news/local/2-die-in-multi-vehicle-crash-on-interstate-80-in-centre-county-officials-say
  14. Ending up with a bit more snow than expected this morning in the central mountains is probably going to do no favors with helping to warm surface temps tonight east of the Allegheny front.. not like the ridge and valley region does any favors with scouring out surface cold in a damming event anyways. This event seems to have ended up being somewhat wetter overall in the QPF dept than models were suggesting, which was what I was looking at to be the primary limiting factor in keeping ice from getting too out of hand. CTP was mulling upgrading their NE zones (likely IPT and NE of there) to warnings earlier. Given radar trends and MesoWest obs pretty solidly in the 26-30 range up and down the AOO-UNV-IPT corridor, I could see them going forward with that up that way. Laurel's are improving as most obs there are above freezing. Some north central obs were still in the low 20s. Quite the contrary actually. While we will get a couple really warm days starting later tomorrow and especially Thursday, the frontal boundary sags back south and as the arctic high moves to our north it will bleed back down cold air. GFS/Euro have actually looked snowier than anything else over C-PA with the one wave that runs the frontal boundary across PA Saturday. Not a ton of QPF but probably a low end advisory event as it looks currently on those models. Southern tier looks more mix-y. Looks like a second, more potent wave lifts up after that which will probably be mainly rain as it cuts west of PA.
  15. 2.2" from the 3 hour fluff bomb we got this morning. Additional precip just starting to move back in, mostly snow attm but pingers are definitely in there too. Shoveled the whole driveway this morning instead of waiting for the guy that normally plows it since the snow was fluffy, I think I might reconsider the snow plow I was looking at to put on my truck haha.