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About MAG5035

  • Birthday 03/14/1986

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Altoona, PA

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  1. Analogs are a useful tool for overall pattern recognition when comparing with similar pattern alignments in the past and expecting reasonable similarities and potential with an upcoming pattern. But using analogs is always risky if one expects a current or forecast pattern analogged to a previous one to deliver the same finite result be it a big storm, a cold or warm air mass with the same magnitude/length or affecting the same region, said big storm (if one materializes) taking the same track or having the same strength and effects, and etc. No two patterns are ever truly the same, there's just too many variables that make up any given pattern to consider. This is especially risky when taking a lot of stock into an analog on a big winter, such as 78 which has come up a good bit with analogs for this winter. There's a reason why analogged big hitter winters like 77-78,93-94, 95-96 don't often rematerialize. Because they were truly anomalous winters in their own right. With regards to model performance, computer models have SST data incorporated into them. They have to.. water covers 70% of the earth's surface and water is a much better retainer of heat than land. There's a lot of behind the scenes work always going on (except for certain shut down governments) to update and tweak these computer models and there's a ton of data that gets incorporated into them to initialize a model run. So when your talking operational models making an up to 10-15 day forecast vs climatic changes over years or decades, those aforementioned numerous pattern variables would come into play into erratic performance. Variables I speak of are things such as blocking patterns and their positioning (NAO/PNA), ENSO/SOI state, Stratwarm events, tropical forcing that makes up the MJO, etc. I really haven't noticed any recent model performance to be any more erratic than it typically is, especially at range. They're always erratic getting out past day 7 unless there's an especially strong signal for something. If there's an imminent pattern change in the mid-long range computer models are always all over the place in the transition period. Look what just happened this month. Some were punting January practically before cleaning up the New Years confetti.
  2. Alot of leftover black ice on some of the back roads around here today. It'll be interesting to see how far temps drop in the regions with a decent snowpack if the winds calm later tonight as the high pressure moves overhead. First order of business this week is going to be Tues Night/Wednesday. Pretty strong signal for a front end ice threat so would expect advisories for the morning rush on Wednesday. With the magnitude of the preceding cold air currently in place, it could be one of those situations you could get icy patches on untreated cold surfaces even if the air temp is a tick or two above freezing. Temps eventually warm some Wednesday and then we'll have to keep an eye on the evolution of the secondary frontal wave that rides up that could provide some back end snow Wed Night.
  3. It finally cleared all the way out down here just in time after some clouds and flurries earlier. Really nice view of it right now, although it is down to 5ºF outside haha.
  4. Yea it's still the same thread I just tweaked the name. We only did about 10 pages of obs yesterday.
  5. Best conditions I ever snowboarded in up there was right after the late March snowstorm this past winter. They got like 20+ inches of snow and had every trail open for a few days. Whichever number is correct is still a pretty impressive precip amount for the Tamaqua Desert.
  6. Already back to 24ºF here. 7.3" was the storm total which compacted to about 4-5" and it's already frozen solid. Trees have pretty much all the snow and ice still on them.
  7. With the storm being further northwest, we missed out on warm advection snows that broke out earlier in the day (went into upstate NY) and also the axis of deform snows is off the NW as well, so that made us depend almost completely on front end. But either way we're going to have one heck of a glacier tomorrow with that arctic air crashing in. It's still 30-31ºF down here and mainly some light freezing rain with the snow getting a crust on top. With the lack of surface wind I don't expect temps to move up very much in the central counties (other than Laurels), maybe getting a couple degrees above freezing right before the cold comes in.
  8. Above freezing temps aren't going to last long this morning, and it doesn't look like the Harrisburg area is going to get to 40+. HRRR has most of the LSV back below freezing by noon.
  9. That's it? Wow I'm surprised. Figured you were gonna end up a couple inches better than here. Might have to see if you get a piece of the deform when the cold air starts pressing west to east a little later this morning and tries to change the leftovers over before moving out. Some of the 0z models were actually trying to hint at more of that deform swinging further into western PA.
  10. Mixed sleet and freezing rain now. Got the driveway blown off and some salt on it. Glad I did... it was a heavy, thick snow without the sleet/ice starting to fall on it. Another 0.4" of frozen in the meantime to bring overall total up to 7.3".
  11. Snow putting up a fight and back to the dominant p-type for now with a some pingers mixed in.
  12. Changeover occurring.. snow, some sleet, and maybe some freezing rain. Cleared off at 6.9". You guys definitely fared the worst out of all of us on that jog NW the storm ended up doing at game time. I expected Pittsburgh to ride the line and it looked like it mixed/rained all the way to Clarion. Fortunately it's still only Jan 19th. I think we will have more chances down the road in the perhaps nearer future.
  13. Beginning to show signs of changing. Still snowing hard but bigger aggregates mixed in and they're rimed.
  14. It's getting close, probably within the hour or maybe even half hour. Latest radar seems to show it already in southern Blair. Pretty much on schedule as the HRRR has had it this evening mixing near midnight. Gonna be one heck of a pack when it freezes solid probably after about 8 or 9am tomorrow... the snow on it's own is pretty thick. I'm probably going to clear the driveway when it mixes over.
  15. Just came back from a nice walk down the street to Sheetz and it is pouring snow. Over 6.5” now so warning is verified.