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MAG5035

Meteorologist
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About MAG5035

  • Birthday 03/14/1986

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KAOO
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Altoona, PA

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  1. MAG5035

    Central PA Fall 2018

    Modeling has been hinting at a timeframe (Oct 28-30ish) where an amplification in the pattern could yield the first legit coastal threat of the fall/winter. Todays 12z Euro showed a nice coastal right on the Delmarva next Sat night/Sun morning. The GFS has the same southern wave but late northern stream interaction resulting in a miss, but the feature is obvious and on a pretty familiar positioning vs other guidance for GFS standards. The Canadian went off the deep end with a Delmarva 967mb bomb curling into eastern PA at 975mb. Probably quite overzealous there, but ensemble guidance lends decent support (considering D6-7 range) for some kind of a coastal system. Of note with this potential would be a charged southern stream given the East Pac hurricane (Willa) being progged to be drawn up through Mexico into the Gulf. It could be a very robust coastal storm if we got the well timed phase. The European taken at face value with the finer details was probably only a couple degrees off of being a paste bomb in at least a sizeable portion of interior central PA but I would still interpret a elevational heavy snow threat in some of the higher Laurels/northern PA locations on that solution. We shall see how this evolves this week...the potential is there at least. I will say I would be quite concerned if an early season heavy snowfall were to materialize at any point in the next 2-3 weeks given the progress of our "fall foliage" so far this fall.
  2. MAG5035

    Central PA Fall 2018

    Went on a short drive and it is snowing on top of Wopsy Mountain just above town a little while ago. My house is around 1300' and mangled flakes started past 1500' with a full transition after 2000'. Start of a dusting and 34ºF and wind driven big snowflakes at the top (a tad above 2400'). That's about a 5 mile drive up from my house. 511 cams showing a solid coating on the US 219 and 22 corridors in Cambria County. Now mixing here since I've gotten back and wind is howling.
  3. MAG5035

    Central PA Fall 2018

    A much overdue significant shift in the pattern is being preceded by today's landfall of major hurricane Michael... the strongest storm to impact the Continental US (wind wise) since Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and likely the strongest Oct CONUS impact on record. Hurricane Hazel in mid Oct 1954 is the only one I can think of that came anywhere close. That one impacted the Carolinas as a somewhat weaker Cat 4 (which is a rare event in the Carolina region even during peak tropical season) and came roaring up through the heart of PA as a Cat 1 hurricane. Similarly to Michael, Hurricane Opal in 1995 peaked as a 150mph Cat 4 in the Gulf but weakened to a lower end Cat 3 prior to landfalling near Pensacola. Storms reaching that magnitude are not necessarily unprecedented this time of year the Gulf of Mexico but a storm impacting as such certainly is, particularly in that section of the Gulf Coast... where in general most northward moving hurricanes typically get influenced by shear being picked up by an approaching trough. It is obvious looking at the GOES 16 satellite imagery of the approach and landfall that this thing peaked at the right (worst) time. Just prior to landfall the eye cleared out and achieved that perfect symmetrical "look" that is a hallmark of high end major hurricanes. There's going to be some major wind damage to go along with the major surge impacts from this hurricane. With regards to our sensible weather here in C-PA.. the direct rainfall shield from what's left of the storm by that point would appear to be mainly south and east of us save for maybe SE PA. What we will have is rainfall associated with the frontal boundary which will likely gather some of Michael's moisture and perhaps yield a period of enhanced rainfall before the frontal passage. In the wake of all that will be a major drop in temperatures for the weekend and perhaps beyond. Temps in the Laurels might not get out of the 40s on Saturday. Long range GFS in particular could potentially stir up some flakes in the mountains in theory as it builds a pretty significant western ridge and eastern trough for a time and brings sub 0ºC air at 850mb into the commonwealth this weekend and then again later next week. Talk about a massive pattern shift after one of the warmest starts to October ever.
  4. MAG5035

    Central PA Fall 2018

    3 pretty distinct couplets evident on PBZ radar, with the lead couplet (the one with the CTP Warren County Tornado warning just issued most pronounced. Far NW PA isn't overly great for radar coverage at the low levels. PBZ is about the best but beam height is 7-8k feet or so.
  5. MAG5035

    Central PA Fall 2018

    Tornado Watch #392 issued for a sizable majority of PA minus the southern tier counties within the last hour effective until 11pm. Happy October! NW PA really under the gun right now, new tornado warning issued for Crawford County, of the PDS variety.
  6. MAG5035

    Central PA Fall 2018

    I think we've recovered enough the last several days that a 1-2" general rainfall will cause some decent responses to waterways but likely not many flooding issues. As you mention, we will have to watch for bands that could train over the same areas wherever that may be this evening. Given we have a tropical system and associated extremely moisture laden source region, any bands will have intense rainfall. Shorter term rainfall (1 and 3hr flash flood guidance) is still where we remain quite vulnerable while longer duration (6 and 12 hr guidance) had improved the most. This is starting to look more like an areawide event where most waterways reach caution or perhaps minor flood in places with these potential areas of banding providing scattered areas in our region with perhaps more significant flooding issues vs an overall widespread flooding event like we achieved a week ago. Me too, I'm over this summer. If it hasn't been raining 75% of the time.. it's been very warm and especially humid. Unfortunately I think we're going to be taking an above average temp regime into October as I don't see much changes (or major catalysts to flip the pattern) the next 6-10 days. We're already over halfway through September, temps cracking into the high 70s/low 80s would be considered above average for most everyone. There's a lot of low height's progged over Canada and Greenland, which drives up heights south of the border in the US (+NAO/AO). This persistent pattern of high heights in the east and displacement from the mean storm track (well to the north) has been why we've been in this exceptionally stagnant pattern. We've been long overdue for a major shift in things, so I would expect we may see that as we get into October. I'm not sure what to expect yet as we get towards winter. We've been running essentially ENSO neutral all summer with modeling developing El Nino conditions as we get into the winter months. I currently would anticipate weak El Nino or perhaps a + biased ENSO neutral, which may influence but not necessarily dictate our winter pattern. CPC just put out a new ENSO update today which can be looked at HERE. Another thing of note is significant positive SST anomalies off the eastern seaboard. If that were to persist into winter that could influence a more feisty regime of coastals and maybe drive some higher heights into the NAO region that has been so lacking in positive influence in our winter weather the last couple years. Other than that, I don't really see any glaring things that would tip me off to having to be concerned about anything either side of normal at the moment. It'll be interesting to see if we carry this amazing run of above average precip into winter.
  7. MAG5035

    Central PA Fall 2018

    The Euro op has been easily the worst scenario the last few runs for central PA. Today's 12z run having a 2-4+" swath of rainfall through most of C-PA and LSV with the highest totals concentrating on the area that was affected the most from the flooding at the beginning of the week. It seems that the Euro maintains the core of what's left of Florence more than other guidance.. making for what would look to be a 6-12 hour timeframe of intense rainfall traversing the region Monday night. With how low the flash flood and headwater guidance is right now, that type of scenario would make for major issues. Esp in the JST/AOO/UNV corridor where headwater guidance shows that 2-3" or so in a 6 or 12 hr timeframe would send several of those smaller rivers into major flood stage pretty easily. Sus Valley is a bit better but still quite vulnerable to this type of a precipitation event as well. Those FFG numbers could improve a bit the next couple days but it will remain pretty saturated throughout the region. Other guidance currently doesn't show such excessive rainfall, but even half of what the Euro has would still cause issues. One must also note the source region of this potential precip event (tropics), as even scattered activity associated with the remnants could yield intense downpours.
  8. MAG5035

    Central PA Fall 2018

    The rain has finally started to relent around here, after being non-stop since about this time SATURDAY afternoon. In terms of the flooding on the local rivers this is probably the worst since Ivan in my immediate local area. Lots of road closures.
  9. MAG5035

    Central PA Fall 2018

    It literally has not stopped raining here in the last 30+ hours, with the rest of the overnight and Monday to go for this event. Flooding issues have been steadily increasing with several road closures being noted and some of the local waterways cracking flood stage. The prospect of Florence potentially impacting our area at the end of the week definitely has my attention as I am very concerned about the flood potential from such an outcome. This current event (remnants of Gordon + frontal boundary) is already concerning enough as it looks to generate a pretty widespread flooding event throughout a large section of the commonwealth by later tomorrow in addition to what's already occurring. Some of the heaviest rainfall rates could occur later today with the passage of the frontal boundary and the potential addition of a more convective element to the rainfall vs the stratiform rain that has been occurring over the last 24-30 hours or so. The most worrisome thing when it comes to Florence is the potential for it to stall out. Modeling builds a pretty commanding eastern ridge with significant + anomalies over Quebac/Ontario. It's starting to becoming evident on the models that there might not be anything to recurve the storm or at least kick the storm out quickly in the event of an eastern US impact. Right now the last couple runs have been focused more with a stall in VA/lower Mid Atlantic after a Carolinas landfall. That's really not any better down there, as the entire Mid Atlantic region (in addition to us) have been extremely wet this summer. When I look at this potential I quickly think of 2004's Frances/Ivan combo. The heavy rain and flooding that occurred with Frances the weekend before really helped set the stage for the major flooding that came from Ivan. One could argue the flooding potential is even worse with this. 2004 was nowhere near as wet in the couple preceding summer months as this summer has been. We will have to watch Florence and the future model runs very carefully this week... I'm def concerned.
  10. MAG5035

    Spring 2018

    Today was the Altoona/State College region's turn to receive significant flash flooding issues in places with 1-2"+ falling within about an hour or so this morning. Parts of the State College region were hit twice (once overnight and then mid-late morning). WTAJ-TV's facebook has plenty of pics/video of the action this morning. Bigger rivers like the Frankstown and Little Juniata Branches of the main Juniata River did not quite reach flood stage. I came across a closed road in my travels this afternoon hitting some back roads between State College and Altoona...Kind of a classic example of why you shouldn't cross a flooded road. You can tell a portion of the one lane has been washed out. For this summer as a whole I personally can't recall one that has ever been this consistently wet around here.
  11. MAG5035

    Spring 2018

    1 and 3hr flash flood guidance (as of 12z this morning)... ouch.
  12. MAG5035

    Spring 2018

    Tonight's action is focused right up the Susquehanna mainstem to the merge with the West Branch and up that through IPT....coinciding with a corridor of very high PWATs greater than >2". Not a tropical system but it essentially might as well be given the rich moisture fetch and high rainfall efficiency. You Sus Valley folks always know how to do the heavy rainfall events right.
  13. MAG5035

    Spring 2018

    Nothing crazy just some pretty good downpours and a little bit of wind. There wasn't much of a couplet noted velocity-wise on approach and the portion of the storm that contained it went a bit south of here. Still was a little bit of excitement.. I can't remember the last time I was under an actual tornado warning. That storm had a much better velocity signature, which has faded in recent frames (still there though). There was a brief point that it had nearly 90-100knots gate to gate so that had a much better chance of something possibly on the ground.
  14. MAG5035

    Spring 2018

    I can vouch for far western Cambria County having an inch or so this morning on the US 22 corridor at one of the high points (Chickaree Ridge). Nothing on the roads though despite it snowing pretty hard. Tuesday was a different story as there was snow on the roads up there that morning. The Laurel's have been something else this month.
  15. MAG5035

    Spring 2018

    Some snowflakes mixing in with the lingering rain here. Couple 511 cams just up the mountain on US 22 showing a coating on the ground. It was nice knowing the brief two days of early summer warmth haha.
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