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About MAG5035

  • Birthday 03/14/1986

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  • Location:
    Altoona, PA

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  1. I would imagine you’ll get a piece of the stuff that’s just east of State College, but likely what you said with maybe some heavier rain and thunder/lightning. Mixed layer CAPE is trying to build into eastern PA but there’s also a good amount of CIN (convective inhibition) from the lingering cloud cover/much lower surface temps on that end of the state (not to mention current convection is shooting a lot of high clouds eastward. Really surprised at the lack of initiation of convection in south central PA though (west of the Sus where the sun really broke out). I thought that to be a ticking time bomb this afternoon given parameters and approaching front. SPC did trim but maintain the tornado watch, likely a hat tip to said parameters which are still good, but I’m not as concerned as I was this afternoon. There was really a split in convection between the north central PA stuff and the more robust stuff sagging south just west of Pittsburgh.
  2. This is definitely one of the better summertime significant severe/tornadic type setups I’ve seen recently around these parts, at least “on paper”. Lots of heat, high dewpoints (at or above 70), large CAPE, high LI, decent shear, BRN values supportive of discrete supercells, etc. The combination of these has all the composite indices (supercell, hail size, significant tornado parameters) very high today on the mesoanalysis. The radar split is definitely notable right now, as the hole figures to translate into the portion of PA that has some of the best severe indices. With that said, the portion of PA between here and Harrisburg really needs to be watched for discrete cell action if it does fire up as the EHI values being generated there honestly concern me a bit. A 0-1km EHI of 1 is enough for possible tornadoes. 4+ is significant. And the 0-3km values are stupid high. This ribbon does extend up into northern PA where current action (and the Elk County tornado warned cell) are moving towards. I’d also look for the Sus Valley to become more favorable with the late clearing this afternoon. 0-1km EHI 0-3km EHI Significant tornado parameter
  3. Well, I obviously would have rather seen a storm like this in the frozen form in Dec-Feb but I did score some flooding pics. This was in the next valley over from Altoona (Sinking Valley). Definitely lots of runoff coming out of that valley. These flooding pics are from a minor tributary, not the river it eventually feeds into. Fortunately that heavy enhanced stuff did stay east this afternoon or this would have been a much more significant river flooding event around here. The local stuff is currently cresting mostly in the minor category. Rain totals here at home are up to 3.71” for the event and also 5.07” for the week with the rain/thunderstorms we got Tues eve into Wed morning. That additional rain earlier in the week was likely a factor in why the Juniata basin was the more vulnerable area for this event.
  4. Continued light to moderate rainfall currently. 3.58” is the total rainfall so far as measured by my gauge (Ambient WS-5000 station). 2.7” through midnight yesterday and 0.88” so far today since midnight. A check of other stations on the network around town have similar amounts as well (generally within a couple tenths of my amount). It looks like CCX radar has been low balling its precip estimates with this event. It has seemed mostly like a very efficient type rainfall and I wonder if a different VCP setting would be more accurate in that regard. Either way a really impressive synoptic event with the signature highly anomalous easterly fetch drawing in a boatload of moisture.. Minor flooding issues in the usual spots are ongoing, but definitely concerned this afternoon if that enhanced stuff lurking in between Harrisburg and Williamsport manages to back its way back into here. We’re at a point where a period of heavy rainfall is going to escalate flooding issues pretty quick.
  5. I’m sure the higher Laurel’s ridges are racking some snow up with the strength of these squalls today. I probably would have added another couple inches here so far today if it was the dead of winter. I’m impressed that a good bit of yesterday’s snow is still on the ground. I’ll add that I have definitely been ready for the warmer seasons to take hold. The last several weeks have really reminded me of 2018. Most of that April was brutal too.
  6. Spring is going to return later this week but definitely not today haha. Getting whacked with a snow squall at the moment.
  7. Still some steady snow falling. The total for the event is currently 4.6” here at 1300’… the majority of which (about the first 3” or so) fell between about 12-3pm. I caved and brought the snowblower back to clear the driveway this afternoon. I got a rough measurement at the top of Wopsy Mountain 4 miles away (at 2400-2500’) at around 930. There was about 8” up there.
  8. It’s right in the middle of the forecast range right now for the advisory, which for this county was 2-4 with up to 6 on the ridge tops. The ridges probably do have a bit more but in general the elevational component is out the window at the moment in this area. The key late this afternoon into part of the evening is going to be how the precip shield evolves as the coastal winds up. If we remain in the steady moderate to heavy precip which seems to be a possibility on the last couple runs of the HRRR than yea, this is definitely going to overachieve and probably be a warning event. But if we get a lull or miss the banding that winds up from the coastal, it’ll probably be close to what was forecasted. Either way, this is impressive for being right at the max solar part of the day.
  9. Just measured 3.2”, still heavy snow and 31.5ºF. What a beat down.
  10. I was about to say that the best part of this is that it’s probably the best synoptic rates I have seen the entire season and it’s happening on April 18th.
  11. Past an inch on the ground, it is pouring snow right now. All paved surfaces are caving. Temp is 31ºF.
  12. Even the turnpike is fully caved. It seems like Bedford and Fulton are getting whacked right now. This screen grab is just east of Breezewood. That stretch from Bedford to Breezewood is all covered. This was what I was alluding to yesterday with all bets being off regardless of elevation if we had heavy rates collapse the column and a quick/clean transition to all snow. That stretch of the turnpike is not a high elevation area other than the Sideling Hill area.
  13. Snow rates have really increased with a pretty heavy rate currently. Temp is down to 31ºF and accumulations are starting to occur on most non-paved surfaces.
  14. Over to all snow now with 36/21. Some 511 cams already have snow on roads down in Somerset County, even on the turnpike near the Allegheny Tunnel and also 219 near Meyersdale..
  15. Light precip just commencing here on a pretty stiff southerly wind gusting to about 25 mph or so. Mainly pingers so it’s already a frozen form. Temp is 38ºF but the dewpoint is 18ºF, so I expect a clean snow transition and a quick temp drop to freezing when the much heavier stuff on the doorstep arrives.
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