Jump to content

MAG5035

Meteorologist
  • Posts

    5,275
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by MAG5035

  1. Just finished and posted this in the old thread before I saw the winter one was made, haha. Speaking specifically about our region (C-PA), a suppressed storm track would be a bigger concern to me than a cutting one with the establishment of a -NAO regime of the caliber thats been advertised solidly on the guidance (-3 to -4). Now truth be told, this is a great looking winter pattern upcoming for the eastern US once it does get truly established… which seems to be still in the realm of just beyond D7-10. So big question to me is storm track. The strong Greenland block would certainly suppress it, but getting completely overwhelmed with arctic air probably doesn’t help us either in the snow department. Being somewhere in between would be ideal of course. The -PNA is generally forecast to slowly neutralize but stay negative, which in this instance may be a good thing of keeping us in a more active gradient zone. There’d be great potential for something big if we were to line up a coastal with eastern CONUS cold in place and a -NAO induced suppressed (and blocked) storm track coupled with a very warm NW Atlantic SST wise. What also comes with a blocky pattern? Model mayhem trying to handle the individual features so I’d be looking for a lot of that as well
  2. Speaking specifically about our region (C-PA), a suppressed storm track would be a bigger concern to me than a cutting one with the establishment of a -NAO regime of the caliber thats been advertised solidly on the guidance (-3 to -4). Now truth be told, this is a great looking winter pattern upcoming for the eastern US once it does get truly established… which seems to be still in the realm of just beyond D7-10. So big question to me is storm track. The strong Greenland block would certainly suppress it, but getting completely overwhelmed with arctic air probably doesn’t help us either in the snow department. Being somewhere in between would be ideal of course. The -PNA is generally forecast to slowly neutralize but stay negative, which in this instance may be a good thing of keeping us in a more active gradient zone. There’d be great potential for something big if we were to line up a coastal with eastern CONUS cold in place and a -NAO induced suppressed (and blocked) storm track coupled with a very warm NW Atlantic SST wise. What also comes with a blocky pattern? Model mayhem trying to handle the individual features so I’d be looking for a lot of that as well.
  3. It took awhile to find the time it was logged but apparently my WS-5000 logged a 60.2 mph daily max wind gust at 3:46 this afternoon. There were some decent gusts at that time of the day but not sure about that high of one. I have notifications set to alert for gusts >50mph and that gust was the only one to trigger that today. I suppose it’s possible.
  4. Definitely a T lol, with 2-4” drifts out of the water spouts. Pretty unique as far as thunderstorms go. Wasn’t much wind that mixed down as we’re locked in with cool air damming. It’s finally cracked 40° after being in the high 30s all day.
  5. Well, that’s one way to get frozen in late November I guess… Only hailstorm I’ve seen this year and it’s on Thanksgiving weekend (with decent thunder/lightning).
  6. You guys and your AC’s haha. Meanwhile my north facing snow patch is hanging in there. It did get to 54 here today (with low humidity).
  7. The big issue I see getting into the opening week of December or so is despite the good teleconnection progs in the NAO/AO/EPO realm, the development of a pretty negative PNA in the interim is going to drive up the SE ridging. I think the evolution to this was probably a factor in losing the chance of our weekend system being anything wintry, that and the complete loss of a high pressure to the north that was a key factor in the wintry solutions several days ago. In contrast to last December, which also had a really negative PNA (much more negative at one point than what is currently being forecasted on model progs), we have the other teleconnections looking half decent going forward. We also have MJO influence that is currently in Phase 6, that should progress into colder phases (for NDJ) 7 and perhaps 8 eventually. I think we’ll get to where we need to for a good period of potential winter mischief, but it probably comes at some point during or more likely… after the first week of December.
  8. It does appear the 12z Euro ensemble maintains a storm signal in the Thanksgiving weekend timeframe. Really not that bad of an ensemble signal considering the range either.
  9. Forgot to post this pic from going hunting yesterday morning. This is from Rothrock State Forest in NW Huntingdon Co. The snow shrunk a good bit of course, but there is still a majority of the ground that has a pack today here. Also received an inch of new snow in the early morning hours today from the LES/upslope.
  10. Canadian has the storm but much slower than the GFS, thus allowing the high pressure to position too far east and have maybe an interior ice set up on retreating cold with a primary low heading to the lakes instead of a redeveloping coastal. One thing about the Canadian progged high is it is much stronger (~1048mb). Something is definitely afoot here in this Thanksgiving weekend timeframe. It seems models all have the pressing high that probably eliminates the continuation of whatever moderating trend towards average we have around mid-week next week, and they all currently have some kind of system... So we’ll see if that continues. Funny I just made a post about the whole coastal thing last week, since the popular opinion for this winter is a reduced threat of them. The 12z GFS scenario sort of illustrates the potential I alluded to in that post if we do line things up for a coastal.. especially in the early part of the winter.
  11. Okay, now we’re pinging here. We’ll see if the snow fights back with some of the last heavier parts of the precip shield but that 5.5” might end up being max depth.
  12. 5.5” now, really close to verifying a warning. The last heavy burst was also very close to sounding the pinger alert with really rimed stuff mixed in. In a lighter area at the moment (still light snow)
  13. Just measured 4.7” with continued moderate to heavy rates. Some sign on radar of mixing trying break into this area from the SW, but the best precip rates are also about to move on from here as well. The damage is done though either way, what a nice snowfall event.
  14. Heavy snow right now with 2.5” on the ground as well. It’s went from a more variable rate and occasional burst of half dollar flakes to that classic mid-storm flake size (smaller but piling up) Temp steady near 31ºF and most if not all roads are caved. 3-4” seems like a pretty big likelihood at this point here. Starting to wonder if this overachieves and takes a crack at 6”.
  15. Update: 1.4”, 30.7/30°F, and moderate rate. There’s been some nice heavy bursts of snow at times.
  16. Sorry lol, definitely snow. Pretty steady light to moderate and starting to lay on the grass at home. I’m out doing some errands. Top of Wopsy is 28° and it was already laying easy up there and blowing around with roads starting to cave. 31-32° down here in town so not quite to caving roads yet. About 20min ago on top of Wopsy (~2400’+)
  17. Steadier stuff has arrived, light right now. Temps right around 32ºF. For those that were wondering, it does appear they have CCX (State College) radar up for the event today.
  18. Flurries here, it’s looking to get going pretty soon. Temp and dewpoint just a hair under 32/25°F. Yard is ready to go
  19. Down to 24.6ºF here. Been busy today getting the yard the rest of the way cleaned up, putting the riding mowers in the storage garage and bringing the snowblower back to the house today. I’d say there’s a half decent chance of being able to use it here. I’m definitely excited to see some early season synoptic snow. Given the look of the forecast the rest of the week, if this advisory type event materializes here.. it’s likely to stick around for a bit. Models are generally on board but a couple differences, especially with the 3k NAM being the warmest. A lot of that QPF is being generated as freezing rain on that. I think this is a pretty cut and dry snow vs rain situation, where the main slug of WAA precip cools the column to allow for snow on a pretty widespread part of the area. ZR impacts likely come after the main shield of precip lifts north, and I think that will be mainly relegated to the central ridges in minor amounts. Main things to figure out IMO are how much of the Sus Valley gets involved with seeing a period of accumulating snow, and top end amounts in the central counties. I’d say H-burg could go either way with at least seeing some snow stick or perhaps seeing a more notable period of accumulating snow (1-2” variety). York/Lancaster and that part of the LSV a little bit more in question. It may mix down that way but not sure about much in the way of accumulations. As for the other point with top end accums, I currently see this easily being a widespread 2-4 event in the central counties (JST-AOO-UNV-IPT), with a chance at some 5-6” at elevation on some of the ridges. Also noteworthy, it’s one of those cases the models are putting out bigger accumulations via the straight 10-1 snow maps vs the Kuchera method. Looking at thermals, the column looks good from a standpoint of supporting snow in that 4-6hr period when the best precip comes through… but not so much in terms of ideal snow growth. Still though, I think 10:1 is attainable when talking snow crystal growth. Marginal modeled temps at the surface and near surface level are likely what’s bringing Kuchera numbers down some, and I think the area that changes to snow and sees the best rates with the WAA slug (central counties most likely) will ultimately be a bit colder than modeled and not have much trouble accumulating snow. One other thing, not thrilled about having to track this event tomorrow with CCX radar down for that maintenance/upgrade lol. It figures that after what seemed like 30-45 days of dry weather that the scheduled 7 day maintenance period would see a significant rain storm and then the first widespread winter wx event of the season in that timeframe.
  20. Surprised CTP doesn’t even have any flood advisory products up. Scanner app has lit up with all sorts of flooding issues in the usual trouble spots in the Altoona and surrounding area. Up to 2.89” on the rain gauge. Had a max rate of about 1.7”/ hour at one point.
  21. Heavy rain being registered on the weather station at home. Also pressure down to 996mb 1.32”/hr rate and 2.2” total
  22. Re: The 70s temps and near 70 dewpoints in the LSV, one has to remember the source region of this event which is the remnants of a tropical system and the associated warmth and humidity being drawn directly up from the tropics via southerly flow by the approaching frontal boundary. A relatively rare set up for nearly Mid-November since tropical systems much less a low end landfalling hurricane being drawn up the East Coast don’t come along very often this time of the year. This is very evident looking at PWAT anomalies, as the true tropical source region has had PWATs in the 1.5-2” inch range during this event. That’s good for being in the +3 to 5 sigma range for this time of the year (a highly anomalous event). The anomalies associated with the back end pushing into western and central PA currently are even greater than that. In addition to the warmth and humidity, there’s likely to be some overachieving rain totals this evening via torrential downpours as this frontal boundary pushes and brings the remnant core of Nicole up through PA.
  23. 1.15” is the total on the rain gauge at home so far. Im reporting from camp over in Huntingdon county where it has been equally as rainy. I’ll be updating on the creek level later on.
  24. Boy that’s a major difference between that map and WeatherBell’s. Here’s the same 6hr frame from WB Looking at the 850 and 925’s, there is support for frozen at least up front (in support of the Weatherbell version) but the parent 850 low also goes NW of PA on this run.
  25. I’ll say it, I like the look of this potential Tuesday night system being an early season wintry event for a decent sized chunk of C-PA. Certainly the interior counties but perhaps some of the LSV as well. Decent cold (for November) set in place by today/tonight’s system preceding and a system from the Gulf attacking a fairly strong Canadian high that slides to our north as the system heads into our region. QPF hasn’t looked overly prolific on most guidance but given the Gulf of Mexico moisture source it could trend wetter. 12z GFS just coming out for example has a stronger system like the Euro but more of a defined Miller B evolution.. which probably isn’t ideal for the LSV. I’m not sure this would be the caliber of a November 2018 but certainly at least some kind of light to perhaps moderate event is on the table. Either way, we have serious discussion of some wintry business inside of 5 days already in mid November so that’s a good thing.
×
×
  • Create New...