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Everything posted by MAG5035

  1. It looks like we're going to come up dry this week on our best looking nearer term window for anything with respect to the teleconnections, which seems to be approx Mar 4-7. This is where we see the PNA briefly neutralize and the NAO/AO fairly negative. However, the deep 500mb low retro-ing underneath the NAO block to about eastern most Quebec/Labrador and the mean 500mb ridge pressing into the central US puts us on the back end of the trough, which will stuff the progged wave around Mar 6th way south through the SE US and out. The result for us looks like a chilly but relatively quiet week this week before presumably some moderation next week as we flip the NAO/AO positive and PNA negative again. As was just posted above with the MJO, we could have a run through phase 2-3 eventually later this month. FMA temp anomalies have a pretty strong correlation to NE/Great Lakes cold in those two phases, so if that were to come to fruition we could conceivably see a favorable period materialize 2nd half of the month.. especially with seasonal shortening of wavelengths and amplification. Im generally ready for warmer spring-like weather after about March 15th or so unless it's a go big or go home situation, so I'd hope we can see a late March/early April 2018 type deal if it's going to be colder than average and unsettled the back half of the month. Either way, I don't really see any real northeastern spring fling breakouts right now.
  2. I got grass showing by the tree line edge of my property, fortunately it’s on the neighbor’s side lol. It’s def warm. KAOO at 54°F but the local meso obs in town are near 60°F
  3. Some definite shrinkage in the pack today with the brisk winds, some sun, and temps gettin into the low-mid 40s.
  4. Catching the height of the snowpack. Temps are above freezing and winds have kicked up.
  5. Well this is fun, a snow rainbow. Been quite a last few days with the picture taking haha.
  6. 3.6" is going to be my final. Checking the pack yielded mostly 10-15" depth measurements, roughly a 12" average. Season snow total to date is 48.5".
  7. Was going to call a final a bit ago but still getting quick bursts of moderate to heavy snow with the lingering scattered precip. I was curious about this as well, as I did mention last night just a couple degrees colder on the low level temps might make a difference between 10:1 and <10:1 and higher amounts. There definitely must have been some good snow growth with at least the front part of the event and those colder low level temps meant the flakes didn't get rimed or anything like that. This thing arriving a bit early helped too.
  8. 3.3” and moderate snow. 3” was my expected target # for here so definitely a nice snowfall this morning. Today’s likely to be the “crest” of the snowpack depth this winter here unless something wild happens down the stretch.
  9. Just woke up and there's already over an inch of new snow. Moderate-heavy rates, 28ºF.
  10. Bringing this post back up from yesterday as my thought's really haven't changed too much on it and neither has guidance. Still seeing the weak spot in the aformentioned part of the south-central between I-81 and I-99. Still should see at least a quick 1-2" up front there though. Biggest thing is this does look to take the whole LSV as a period of snow up front and how aggressive the rates are is going to ultimately determine impacts and accumulations. Sped up a tad too, with this looking to get into the Sus Valley by mid-morning so if it comes in gangbusters it's obviously going to screw the roads up pretty good. A couple degrees colder in the low levels might be enough to realize 10:1 instead of <10:1 ratios so all of the Sus Valley looking pretty solid on that 2-3" scattered 4". The wave of snowfall is probably done in 4-6 hrs tops, with any lingering precip east of the mountains likely in the form of some scattered showers later in the afternoon.
  11. I did just that not too long ago, it definitely didn’t disappoint haha. It really sticks out with the clear skies today, I wish I could load the full quality pics on here. It’s always wild the difference 4 miles and 1100’ of elevation makes. Top of Wopsononock Mtn west of Altoona
  12. This looks like a quick hitting advisory type event, like a 2-3" scattered 4" type deal for most with perhaps more frequent higher amounts (4-6") a better possibility in the Laurels, I-80 corridor, and Poconos. Also need to consider the possibility of a weak spot in the south central counties between I-99 and I-81 (Bedford, Fulton, Franklin, maybe southern half of Huntingdon, etc.) where could only be a 1-2" type snowfall. Low stays NW of PA on a general westerly flow so that typically invites the probability of some downsloping in that aforementioned area, and it has been showing up on most model guidance. Could only be 1-2" in the LSV as well, and I'll explain that below. Timing and temps are another concern, esp LSV below the turnpike. This appears to be a late morning to late afternoon/early evening hit, so rates better be good there with marginal low level/surface temps. I often find that after about the 2nd week of February or so it's like flipping a switch with respect to solar input (ie the sun angle)...not yet with heavier and/or cold storms, but with clear days and light events with marginal temps (specifically ones in the middle of the day). NAM once again the warmest, bringing mixed up into the LSV. Showing ZR as primary p-type but I would imagine any icing would be limited in scope if it were in fact liquid precip. And considering how thermals have went in the other two events this past week (even though the M/D simultaneously got their 4-6" of snow and still had mixing all the way up through MDT with Thur), I'm inclined to seriously consider the NAM in that regard. So ideally, a good shot of heavy precip up front would at least secure getting a couple of inches. Ratios might be <10:1 as well. Kuchera maps have actually looked a bit worse than the 10:1 maps, and while Kuchera method applies a fairly simple algorithm for calculating the ratios it is generally picking up that the temps 850mb to surface are a bit marginal.
  13. That looks like a lot of snow down there too at that elevation. Yea it was a combination of rime ice near the summit which is in clouds a good bit (over 3100' at the top) but alot of it was also the new snow sticking directly to the iced trees too. It looked like they had a significant amount of ice up there from that ice storm even for their standards, and since there was never any strong warm push at what is essentially the 925mb level at the top of the mountain there, most of it didn't melt.
  14. I went up to Blue Knob in the afternoon/evening yesterday and it was quite a sight up there. Probably a general 2’+ natural snowpack around the mountain plus the 1/2”+ of freezing rain from the ice storm and rime ice (esp above ~2600ft) that never melted before it snowed again the last couple days.
  15. Decent burst of snow currently. Wouldn’t say it’s been piling up by any means but it has been snowing pretty much all night so far. Up to 1” additional now with round two, though that’s the running total all the way since mid afternoon.
  16. It does seem like the stuff around is being somewhat under represented on the HRRR but it's still fairly patchy so I don't think we'll end up with as much as some of the models have tonight. I think for the most part an inch or less but perhaps we can get a band setup that drops some localized 1-2" amounts. The best action seems to be staying NW of I-81 for now as well, with it actually snowing half decently here currently. It's been snowing off and on enough this evening that it's got most of the streets and secondary rds icy again. Board was cleared this afternoon right after it started snowing off and on after 2pm. 2.9" fell before, and just measured 0.7" so far since for 3.6" on the event. That makes a 44.1" current season total on those measurements. I generally consider the 45-55" range as average-ish for this end of Altoona right against the Allegheny Front so looking pretty good for Feb 18th.
  17. Some steady snow trying to get restarted back this way. While I was out clearing stuff off a bit ago I had a bout of freezing drizzle that promptly glazed the car right after I brushed it off.
  18. 2.8” and slotted out over here currently. Hopefully can get things started back up this afternoon.
  19. 2.1” for my last measurement til morning. Steady light snow, 23°F
  20. Moderate snow and 24ºF. Midnight measurement is 1.3" of straight powder snow in a bit under 2 hrs since it got going. Not too bad considering the near term stuff late this afternoon and early evening didn't have this even starting here until about now or a bit later.
  21. Much better flakes now and moderate-heavy rate. Binocular check of the snowboard with the flood light on already looks like over a half inch.
  22. Yep same over here, a nice moderate pixie dust snow for now. Getting this early swath of snow to set over the area is gonna be a big part of hopefully getting pretty well into our forecast range of the advisory (3-7"). I think we're in pretty good shape. There's a patch of some more enhanced echoes on radar over JST that should try to shift this way here within the next hour or so.
  23. Great catch. And the 0z sounding (weather balloon) is hard data too. This was my worry about the southern tier in terms of a getting a warm layer somewhere in between 850-700mb. Yea it will wet bulb down, but more robust WAA there is already being noted. Fortunately for our region I think this has been trending towards minimizing the threat for sleet/mixed (0z NAM didn't have it getting very far across the mason-dixon). But there's still a decent possibility of pingers at some point to consider in likely the bottom tier of LSV counties.
  24. To clarify a bit, holy crap the NAM is sleeting on DC. 2.5-3"+ on both the NAMs lol.