MAG5035

GFS definitely coming in more amped and north than 18z, which brought a more significant snow swath further north. At the same time really tightens the gradient of the snow swath. 0z left, 18z right

Here’s the snow map (24hr kuchera) Solution looks similar to that further north solution the UKMET had been pushing the last few runs.

Might end up being the biggest blowout of the quarterfinals at this rate.

Wagons back north on the 0z GFS for 1/6, decent snow swath I-80 south.

You guys are getting good practice in for storm mode model play by play lol.

I’ll quote it, with 24 hour precip/snowfall 24hr Kuchera 24hr total QPF: I’m not gonna go too crazy with mathing all the locations but MDT’s 8.2” at 0.5” is about a 16:1 ratio… which is somewhat better than January climo. The 12z Euro had a very cold column with this event, with the -8ºC 850 isotherm never getting above MDT and surface temps in the low to mid 20s area wide. Definitely cold enough for better than climo ratios. Just strictly interpreting what the model is outputting, I’m okay with those higher snowfall numbers. Whether thats the actual solution is obviously debatable at this range. It seems that guidance wants to bring more of this energy out front to make the main system in the 1/5 to 1/6 timeframe. We don’t have the 500mb alignment the whole way in place yet (western ridge asis off the Pac coast).. a stronger system that phases more energy in would likely cut. The GFS actually does cut the low but it’s weakening into what will be a decent antecedent cold airmass so result would probably be a majority frozen event for most here but mixing would be on the table. The Euro managed to get the low just underneath PA to a coastal transfer. If this is going to be the main system to get us here in C-PA, that’s probably the ideal solution. Euro has been a bit inconsistent, big difference between it and the GFS at 12z. Very little blocking in the NAO realm and also trying to hang troughing back into SW (Euro bias) 12z GFS v Euro Euro ensembles are more in line with GFS/GEFS. Still weaker in the NAO realm like the Euro op but big difference in not really supporting the Euro op’s trough digging in the SW 12z GEFS v Euro EPS Pretty far out in range yet, but I’m leaning cold given the general consensus right now. Models have been targeting that 1/10 to 1/11 timeframe for a major arctic shot more often than not so far.

Well GFS not a one hit wonder as the 0z has another run with a big storm near the 1/8 to 1/10 timeframe. Sort of redistributes energy away from any noteable in the 1/6-7 timeframe to make for the bigger storm a couple days later (but definitely faster than the 18z storm). Range is obviously way out there, but got to start somewhere for a storm signal. Definite potential in this timeframe. Now to see if other stuff starts seeing it (0z Canadian is a no for now)

Well if anything, that’s probably one of the best overall op runs of anything winter I’ve seen in a good while for at least another two hours.

I posted this like 11 days ago, and I feel like most points are still relevant. So fast forwarding to today, we’re kind of where I thought we would be during this timeframe (in a warm-up). The past 30 day period has been cold more often than not with solid - anomalies in most of PA, so a break in the cold was due. Yes it’s going to rain, probably two liquid events between now and New Years.. which isn’t necessarily a bad thing in terms of the lingering drought conditions in a large portion of PA and the Northeast as a whole. It’s probably gonna be warm enough the next couple days that some stations technically may erase the negative departures for Dec (especially western PA stations) Then New Year’s Day onward we’re right back into seasonably cold weather and eventually it appears.. more anomalous cold. I get all the negative “it’s always two weeks+ away” sentiment to a degree. I think there’s a lot of PTSD from last year’s chasing the “biblical” 500mb looks on the longer range/weeklies at 2-4 weeks. But A, this winter is not last winter (or the one before that) and B this colder period is right on the doorstep. My biggest question for January was could we keep the western ridging (+PNA) as a persistent feature in the overall pattern and for at least the first 15 days of the month.. the answer to that appears to be yes as ensembles develop a solidly +PNA during the first week of Jan. This goes along with across the board good teleconnections with -NAO/AO and generally +EPO/WPO developing. MJO as well is looking better with modeling getting it more into 8 and 1. PNA is a big one for me though, we’ve had the other teleconnections looking good at various points the last couple winters but we were resorted to watching the Mammoth Mtn web cams while they got 6-10 feet every few days because of a monster western US trough, which naturally would imply some form of eastern US ridging in response. NOT the case so far this year. For example Denver is averaging +9ºF and Phoenix +7ºF for December (no doubt because @Voyager moved back to PA haha) Anyways we’ll have to see what kind of storms we can get out of this upcoming pattern, which is ultimately what puts the white gold on the ground. Hasn’t been much signs of an overly active southern stream, so timely northern stream waves and amplified pattern are probably going to be key first half of Jan. Models have been already very persistent on that 1/6 to 1/8 period for some kind of a bigger system. GFS has looked good at times, Euro has progged it as more of a mix. Way too far out to determine those details for sure. Both models have occasionally had legitimately serious cold behind that progged system as well and that’s going to need to be watched too as pattern alignment would be supportive of major arctic shots into the eastern US. To sum it up there’s no reason one can’t be positive about winter prospects getting into January.

Got down to 6ºF here last night, which already exceeds the coldest temp I had from all of last winter (7ºF). Pretty impressive rad cooling night despite just some patchy snow around. I’m sure a deeper snowpack would’ve easily made it a below zero night.

New CTP grids for tomorrow. Meso models have been showing better development of WAA snows ahead of the approaching primary clipper low tomorrow morning in the central and northern tier counties. Seems quite close to an advisory event being advertised on the 18z 3k NAM, RGEM, and esp 18z HRRR from CTP’s I-80 corridor north (perhaps down to KAOO on the 99 corridor). So wouldn’t be surprised to see some headlines up later this eve. It’s a pretty decent low as far as clippers go but this fades and hands off to secondary development off the coast, which leads to some questions of how much precip translates over into the Sus Valley, which seems to be a weak spot between the primary and secondary handoff in the progged alignment. Also an inverted trough element to this as well which could focus a more narrow band of snowfall somewhere in eastern PA later Friday (likely aligned NW-SE north and east of MDT). PSU game Saturday def looks cold, though I’m not really buying the SMU not being able to handle the cold angle. I think Penn State should handle its business but not because it’s too cold for SMU to handle. Noon kickoff will be “warmest” time of the day with UNV temps progged around the mid 20s, Winds are brisk but not insane (gusts to 25). Might be some lingering snow showers, especially in the morning. If this were a night game I could see temps being more of a factor since Sat night will likely go well into the teens. The one thing that could be an issue for fans is whatever happens tomorrow. 1-2” is in the grids now for State College. They get the high end of that or some kind of overachieving event that’s a bit more and that could make for some parking issues in the grass lots.

ENSO has yet to emerge into an actual La Niña, we are and have remained at ENSO neutral all year since the Nino faded last winter. I have my doubts we ever actually end up with an official one (which needs 5 consecutive 3 month average periods of < -0.5ºC in 3.4). With the way the week to week has been going with ENSO temps so far this month, I would expect the OND average to be another neutral once this month wraps up. What may happen in the next month or so is SST’s dip into perhaps weak Nina territory, but I wouldn’t see it as having any major influence. Models really busted on this from early in the year when most were projecting a full blown strong Nina. I think one of our issues with the pattern alignment stem from generally having a +NAO/AO. What we do have right now that has been missing the last I don’t know how many winters is a positive PNA that has seemed to have some staying power. That has kept a mean trough on this side of the country which has kept us cold more often than not but the +NAO/AO has kept stuff from really digging. Another issue is we’ve also been working a phase 5 MJO pretty much the whole month so far, which is not really an ideal phase to be in. The fact we’ve been so cold has been a bit of a minor miracle IMO. Without that western ridge, we likely would have been roasting. Following another cold shot coming this weekend, it does appear that the week between Christmas and New Year’s is likely to be an anomalously warm one as the EPO is slated to go positive and will likely overwhelm the CONUS with warmer air despite the continued ridging in the west (+PNA). With the MJO, Nina’s favor phases 4-6…so that’s where I feel the ENSO neutral conditions could be a good thing in the longer run as the MJO could actually be allowed to rotate into the more favorable phases at some magnitude and not stall in the bad ones. Models are already putting the MJO in Phase 7 by the end of the month. A 7-8-1 run would have a decent chance of delivering a better storm pattern for us as well. So I think we’re going to set up for a good period at some point when we get into next month, especially if we can keep the +PNA.

I just thought maybe it was a case of they only report 12/24hr snowfall at 7pm/am (0/12z). Original forum post this morning with the MDT climo report was issued at 220am where the “revised” one was issued 713am. At any rate here’s this, it seems most CTP stations saw something measurable yesterday. 2.4” was my final tally here, most of which is still on the ground currently as we’re socked in fog and it’s only 34ºF.

Working on 2” here with a nice steady snow falling and 30°F. First snow pic of the season

Been transitioning through pingers with snow mixing in now after the freezing rain start as the column cools. It was just enough to glaze the driveway and back street. 31/28ºF

Update, precip started here and it’s currently straight freezing rain.

31/26ºF here with the precip on the doorstep. It’ll be interesting to see if this overachieves in the snow department here today. Models have been progging the column temps to fall a couple degrees below freezing at 925 and 850 upon precip onset. I’m thinking there will be a period of snow for a bigger portion of the LSV than what is being broadcast for advisories. Whether that escalates into an actual advisory event in Harrisburg/York/Lancaster is debatable but it’s certainly possible. I’ve liked the HRRR’s more frozen vs rain (colder column after onset and during first part of the event) over the 3k NAM’s more widespread freezing/mixed precip during its wintry precip portion of the event. We’ll see how that goes today. I think primary freezing rain threat resides in the Laurel Ridges, however I will say given how cold it has been that rain and marginal temps at or a degree or two above freezing may freeze up some surfaces like non-paved driveways and other untreated cold surfaces. It was 12ºF for a low here Saturday morning and was down as far as 21ºF last night before clouds moved in a brought temps up overnight. Ground is frozen solid.

Temps have rocketed to 57ºF here today (58ºF at one point). Had a tad over an inch of rain fall yesterday (1.05”). Some models are coming back around to the rain to snow scenario over a bit larger of an area of C-PA later tomorrow. Best handling ones are likely gonna be the high res stuff like the 3k NAM. I think most of us could see some kind of changeover but this is likely to be yet another elevationally driven event in terms of accumulations. There’s a sharp temp drop progged behind the frontal passage but probably not sharp enough in lower elevations to get meaningful accums. The big story with this event is likely to be the much needed rainfall. SW PA and WV has seen some meaningful improvements on the drought monitor the last couple weeks and it appears that tomorrow’s system is going to really help the more significant drought conditions in eastern PA and the megalopolis (and surrounding) region as a whole.

Lol I actually have lived in Altoona for the last several years now. I haven’t really seen a reliable answer yet on which McDonald’s it was. I’m a two minute walk from one of them. The most likely one that is close to the bus station downtown is a couple miles away from here.

About 1.5” total fell here mainly last night and early this morning. I slept through it but there was thundersnow with the frontal passage around 2am last night. Very cold and blustery day today with a high wind gust measured on the station at 40mph. Temps only topped out at about 25ºF today post frontal passage. They did spike after the initial inch of snowfall last night all the way up to 39ºF after midnight prior to the FROPA at 2am. Anyways radar presentation this evening shows a more classic LES/upslope regime with more discrete bands aligned with the cyclonic NW flow. The band stretching through Clearfield County has a Huron connection and will likely be the best bet to deliver continued accumulating snowfall underneath it.

About an inch on the ground here already with roads caved. 29°F

I started meaning to mainly just comment on Thursday and got a bit carried away haha. I could always yell out the details condescendingly for 5.99/week lol. Grammatical and spelling errors are gonna cost extra though.

I think given the lack of a surface high to the north and much antecedent cold air available the best play for this potential Thanksgiving system is for a weaker/more suppressed wave. The 0z NAM was pretty close to delivering what the Euro has been advertising with a stronger wave that lifts the boundary just a little bit too much. Thus it gave probably about as good a solution as you could ask for in this setup for the central/northern counties. NAM solution kind of splits the difference between that and the 0z GFS and RGEM so far, which are weaker and more suppressed but still get some precip into PA. With either scenario temps are going to be very marginal and may still not be cold enough in the southern tier and Sus Valley even with the farther south/weaker scenario. Temps will be seasonably chilly after the frontal passage tomorrow night thru Thanksgiving but late November seasonably chilly is borderline with delivering snow. We need anomalously chilly.. which is only coming behind the system. Beyond that lies one of the colder starts to December we’ve seen in awhile, with solidly below average temps looking quite likely. Deep cyclonic flow centered south of Hudson Bay is going to light up the Lakes all the way through the holiday weekend. Flow initially looks okay to get our favored Laurels areas (Friday night) but then mostly appears to favor WNW/westerly downwind lakes locations just north of C-PA for most of the weekend. Some semblance of a weak clipper type wave showing around Sunday-ish on all models, which may be the best shot at a light snowfall in the interim. 0z GFS/Canadian too far south with it. The Euro.. while still plenty cold here seems to be running a tighter boundary and had a better solution at 12z (although major downsloping off the Alleghenies). That run progged -12ºC at 850 and -20ºC at 700mb. Obviously would be a high ratio event with numbers like that. Pretty far out of course, but thats the quick rundown on that feature. Wouldn’t take much to turn that into a nice widespread light event given that it’s going to be plenty cold at the surface and especially aloft. At any rate, ski season should be able to get an early start this year as this colder pattern looks to have at least some staying power. Only issue of course is the lack of bigger storms showing on the pattern, as it looks to be a mainly northern stream dominant regime and fairly progressive. But we’ll see how that evolves in time.

The 30 minute trip up to the 3100’ summit at Blue Knob certainly did not disappoint. Got an 11 and a 12” measurement. Drifting had been pretty significant up there during the height of the event.

1.2” was the best accum measured at the house today. Surface temps were just a couple degrees too warm in the early afternoon when the best snow rates were falling before transition to rain. Been mostly rain/white rain for a bit now with up to 0.85” for the day in precip. Currently about 36ºF. I spent the morning on Tussey Mountain in NW Huntingdon Co for the last day of archery and by mid afternoon there was likely 4-6”+ above 1800’ on that ridge, esp towards State College. This is still ongoing in the Laurel’s, might have to make the 30 minute drive to the top of Blue Knob to see the situation up there. I bet there’s monster totals at that elevation.