MAG5035

Some of their 511 cameras look like what you’d see in Buffalo. Good thing the Super Bowl isn’t this week haha.

We really haven’t had all the pieces in place at one time to wind up any kind of a big storm all winter despite us achieving deep winter status. Our two signature events this month were a weakening southern stream wave attacking a confluent pattern and this past event being a fairly vigorous wave along an arctic front. It has continued to be a dry pattern. I’ve got about 10” for the month, with zero rain. So take into account these have all been higher ratio snowfalls I’d be lucky to have 0.75” of liquid equivalent for the month so far. The only real precip opportunity I see right now is that Sunday/Monday timeframe where mainly the GFS has been playing around with some kind of an overrrunning type system. Guidance raises heights in the SE in that timeframe into a really flat SE ridge, though I would hardly call it such. It does moderate temps back to about seasonal and would set the boundary for systems to run through here and not say, the Gulf Coast. Whether there’s anything depends on if any energy gets ejected out of the SW, and both GFS/Euro seem mostly content to keep that closed off low there most of next week. Not real keen on anything else otherwise. There looks like some reinforcing cold next week at times centered on New England (still keeping us seasonal or below), but we’re on the backside of the mean trough. Highly progressive northern branch that is too far NE for clippers here with the sprawling western ridge and +NAO/AO regime downstream. Not much opportunity for phasing if anything does eject out of the SW. Beyond that I really haven’t seen a lot for me to jump on the complete pattern reversal bandwagon yet. Certainly it looks like a period of above average heights/temps is coming likely near or during the first week of February. But the longevity of that kind of a pattern change is going to depend on some things. Some MJO forecasts completely avoid 4-5-6 or at least phase 5 and others really lower the magnitude eventually into the null phase. If we don’t go full bore and stall out in the those phases, I don’t expect the influence to be such that we have a heat wave and gigantic eastern ridge for any extended amount of time. It will be milder though, regular teleconnections other than the WPO are not particularly great looking. But what we do have that we didn’t last year is much colder air in Canada. That could help press the boundary in a more borderline setup. Certainly a more active storm track would be beneficial snow or not. Still much to resolve out that far.

Well we ended up getting the clear, calm night last night I expected tonight and low temps definitely overachieved, showing what rad cooling and a fresh snowpack can do. My low temp here was -4.5ºF. Some low temps around here I saw from the Mesowest network Hollsopple (between Johnstown and Somerset): -22ºF Phillipsburg: -16ºF Claysburg: -15ºF Bedford County Airport (KHMZ): -15ºF I expect similar or perhaps colder numbers tonight, though perhaps more towards the western stations. Weak shortwave passage earlier this evening might make late clearing in the Sus Valley and hold temps up a few degrees compared to last night. But we’ll see.

Currently 12°F/1°F here. Ended up with a fluffy 1.1” of additional snow last night to bring the overall total to 4.1”.

You’ll definitely feel them haha. Tomorrow night will be cold enough but I’m still eyeing Tuesday night as the night the bottom might drop out. The latest European for example has Clearfield at -17ºF 7am Wed morning and has been putting out numbers like that persistently as the coldest model also having most of the western half of PA -15ºF or colder. The reason I think low temps may actually fall to those levels in some non urban areas is because overnight Tues into Wed morning we have a 1040mb high moving into western PA, essentially the “Canadian” High if you will for the insanity about to ensue along the Gulf Coast with the next wave. So that coupled with what is now a fairly expansive snowpack in PA figures to be a good radiational cooling setup and we have a frigid airmass overhead that is in the -20s ºC at 925 and 850mb. Honestly would not be surprised to see a rural station between here and Pittsburgh hit -20ºF if we get the full rad cooling. Probably don’t see temps like that in eastern PA and the Sus Valley but with that new snowpack in place there definitely could be some below zero low temps in the usual cold spots.

I did reach my 3” target, which is where I’m at currently. Been in the lighter snows the last couple hours. We missed the business end of that heavy 700mb forced band but we got into it for a little while. All fluff, temps have been about 22-23ºF for most of the event.

Already snowing here with a fresh coating and caved roads. Temps fell back rapidly the last several hours from still 33°F at 2am to 24°F right now. Would like to at least get to 3” with this one. I have yet to even verify an advisory level snowfall this winter.

Models have generally seemed to finally hone in overall on the extent and position of the main precip shield. RGEM/HRRR remains the most robust QPF wise. Blending with the other middle of the road stuff I think most of the Sus Valley will verify the warning on the low end, with 5” amounts being common. I think some 6-8” could be had but I think they’ll be focused in some kind of a narrow swath reliant on a band or two setting up. Back in central I think advisory placement and amounts (2-4”) look good. That area coincides more with 700mb being within the DGZ (temps 12ªC falling to around -15ªC at 700mb during best precip). So if a band of snow (and good 700mb lift) gets setup early in the central counties.. they would likely see good ratios. Maybe not 30:1 but 18-20:1 type ratios. I think that’s the path to overachieving for places like State College/Altoona/Clearfield. So my overall accum breakdown is this: 4-6” for the Sus Valley (H-burg/York/Lancaster) 4-6” for the Laurels (not including post event additional LES/upslope) 2-4” Altoona/State College/Lewistown/Williamsport 3-5” Bedford/Fulton/Franklin Around 2” in and around Clearfield and T-2” above I-80 (less as you go northwest).

4.6” (.37)

Safe to say the Canadian is pretty similar to the RGEM. And in terms of the Lower Sus Valley Kuchera is running near 10:1 with accums.

I’m nearing about 1.5” from the snow today. Temps have rebounded to 26ºF after starting today at 13ºF. Some historical perspective on the upcoming cold snap next week from CTP:

Here’s the QPF map for it, haha. There’s no snow maps for it available.. least on WB. Def still on a continued wetter trend vs the last couple runs in PA.

Haha I wouldn’t worry about whatever they’re worried about. Kuchera is fine if one recognizes how the method is calculated and applies it to the thermal situation you have. Judging by a cmment or two down there some don’t want to go that extra little bit. Any rate neither 10:1 or Kuchera actually applies actual atmospheric physics (VV’s, etc). Kuchera basically takes the warmest temp within the surface to 500mb level and cranks out a ratio via a math equation. Where it’s not the best choice is when there’s marginal surface temps (freezing or a degree or two above it will be too low) and significantly colder arctic air masses (it will put out unrealistically widespread areas of 20-30+:1) . Otherwise it does fairly well. The new really amped up RGEM that just came out dumped 9.1” at Harrisburg via 10:1. It also cranked out 9.1” via the Kuchera method as well.

Definitely still a good bit of discrepancy with this Sunday thing. Shortwave timing is important in addition to what the models are doing with it. Canadian/RGEM seem to be a bit faster than the GFS and Euro, which in turn erupts the wave through most of C-PA as the arctic boundary hasn’t pressed further SE given the faster timing. I wasn’t really optimistic about much of anything in PA from this originally but I do think the chances of at least the LSV seeing a bout of accumulating snow are looking increasingly more possible. Surprised not much mention of the cold behind. Mon night-Thurs morning are going to be very cold.. culminating with I think Wed morning being the coldest morning of all with an already noteworthy arctic airmass in place and a radiational cooling setup that particular night. Euro in particular literally rivals January 94 in western PA with the morning lows. Not sure it’ll be that extreme but I do think the GFS may be a bit too warm in areas that have snow on the ground. Obviously if that Sunday wave puts snow down in the Sus Valley then that will invite the opportunity for more widespread below zero low potential there on Tues/Wed night. For example sake here was what the Euro has 12z Wed morning. (These are actual 2m temps in ºF)

Moderate snow, working on about an inch here.

Light snow here and 21ºF. Light coating so far.

I like the well placed RIC 6”+ jack haha. Must be rolling with the HRRR for that particular area. Sure isn’t the Euro putting out numbers like that down there. The 12z HRRR and NAM runs this morning appeared to be the best scenarios for here C-PA, holding an area wide 1-2” or so. Rest of everything including the the NBM suite continues to be pessimistic in the Sus Valley. GFS was okay I suppose. I think a good expectation for the Sus Valley is generally up to an inch of snowfall for all and we’ll see if we can get a couple bands that deliver a bit more in spots. AOO/UNV corridor slightly better with 1-2” and Laurel’s with 2-3” before their typical LES/upslope regime sets up.

You mean the end zone play where we found out which Notre Dame fans are also Browns fans? Haha

It came down to two things for me. The interception at the end obviously, but also where ND tied the game back up on the wide open long TD where the DB just simply slipped and fell on his break. Might have been a different situation at the end of the game if that doesn’t happen. But it is what it is. Allar had a bad game/choices and that wasn’t a good time for that given Notre Dame’s defense is ranked #1 in completion percentage (50.7%) and #3 in pass yards/game (165). That game gets to OT or even just further down the field for the win at some point he was going to have to make a key throw.

Wagons south on the AC thermostat haha. It’s only managed to get to 22ºF back here today.

Here’s the 15z NBM, CTP’s initial snowfall forecasts are following that fairly close so far. That covers the whole duration of the event through the rest of the NE and such. So the blend that makes up the NBM is quite pessimistic on that broad area of light to moderate accums getting on the other side of the Apps except for that stripe thru VA and the Delmarva associated with the coastal currently. We’ll see if it eventually improves a bit like some of the op’s did today for the area. Either way, definitely a shame this system can’t amplify at least some. That is a huge expanse of accumulating snowfall from Texas thru the Ohio Valley.

We’ve had a persistent NW cyclonic flow via the deep low in the 50/50 realm being locked in by blocking regime in place..recently reinforced by Monday’s storm. Look for another windy day today in C-PA…especially eastern and northeastern zones, where the neighboring Poconos counties actually are under wind advisories today. High pressure builds in tonight/tomorrow ahead of the likely light snowfall Friday Night, and winds should finally settle down.

It would likely only take a swath of one to two tenths QPF to get there. Thermals are great for high ratio snows (potentially in the 20:1 realm) with most of PA residing at or near -8ºC at 850ºC and -10ºC and lower at 700mb. That’s what I’m eyeing out of this event, a potential swath of 2-4” snows where some marginally better forcing aloft coincides with the nice thermal column. Sus Valley is the question area right now for me, though tonight’s NAM looks better so far. I def could see the shadowing effect occurring in a weaker interaction with the northern stream as the southern shortwave ejects out towards us and the SW flow downslopes off the mountains, especially as a secondary develops and tightens the remaining precip down to the south.

The late afternoon back end delivered only about another half inch here, making the storm total 1.8”. Just missed it all today haha.. the best 850mb FGEN to the south (expected), the best 700mb FGEN to the north (not expected), and lastly the 500mb vort pass to the south which by the obs down there has gotten the Mid-Atlantic folks fairly close to their forecasted totals.

You might have a chance at some more surprise bands the next couple days. High res models are showing a Huron connected band developing Wednesday with a favorable alignment through your general area and perhaps into State College again.