MAG5035

Probably at least 4” up on Tussey Mountain (approx 10 miles south of State College), although not completely sure since i didn’t bring anything with me to measure. Right at the 3” mark at home, and similar here at camp off the mountain. Almost at the end of the precip, definitely a nice morning overall. Now to get a system that does this for another 18 hours or so haha.

Already looks to be about 1.5” here and snowing pretty good. I’m at hunting camp over in Spruce Creek (NW Huntingdon Co). Looks similar at home, temp is 28ºF.

Overviewing all the model/ensemble stuff the last few runs I would think most if not all the subforum is looking good for the first widespread synoptic snowfall of the early winter season. I’m not really concerned about any P-type issues except for the LSV near the MD line, and even there I think there’s a good chance of advisory type snowfall or even a mostly snow event presuming we don’t trend the surface low NW much in the next 36 hrs. Think the ceiling in our area is likely to be 5-6” but mostly a 3-5” type event. Main issues I see to sort out at the moment is axis and width of the swath of heaviest snowfall. The regular Euro suite has been a bit more disjointed upstream developing the shield of precip. It seems to be the most progressive of the major stuff to include the GFS and Canadian suites, as well as the AI Euro. This makes for a late blossom of the precip shield over the majority of C-PA and a more focused swath as the coastal low deepens and moves NE. Basically everyone still sees snow but it’s a lot more 1-2” or so with a tighter swath of 3-5” type amounts… which is the furthest SE with that getting a couple inches all the way into DC. It’s reflective in the associated ensembles too. Might as well show them all. 0z GEFS vs Euro EPS 24hr probs of 3”+ 0z Canadian ensemble vs Euro AI ensemble for 24hr 3”+ probs, actually a pretty good match on swath axis The other end of the spectrum is the 3 and 12km NAM being the furthest NW, most wound up solution (no surprise) still as of 6z this morning. I’m sure thats the type of solution the MU guy is envisioning as the end game of what this system does in terms of the boundary being north. Which is certainly possible but I don’t see the amp in the pattern to bend this up in a Chesapeake Bay to NYC to Southern New England trajectory as deep as it has the low developing. And honestly that’s about the only kind of track I would entertain detrimental p-type issues reaching far up into southern PA and the Sus Valley. Otherwise I think this pattern setup we’re in is plenty cold enough to overcome early season climo. Yea the ridge axis is just off the Pacific Coast, but the PV is also anchored over Hudson Bay. Look at the 500mb anomalies for storm time. The only detriment of a +NAO in this setup would be a progessive pattern.

OK, I’m in. That pattern next week has evolved into something much more favorable on modelling the last few days since my last post. Gone is dumping the trough in the west and building southeast ridging. Instead, we’re bringing the energy for what is now Sunday’s system out quicker. While that low still cuts, the faster timing and fairly weak low invites a potential light snowfall/mix event in at least interior C-PA with some cold air still in place. So that’s actually the first thing I’m looking at with this period. That system resets the boundary, and we have a nice placement of the PV over Hudson Bay to help push down any semblance of SE ridging and we’re set for this Tues-Wed system that is looking way more wintry than it did several days ago. GFS is obviously a big and widespread snowstorm for a lot of folks. The Euro and Euro Ensemble are in fact showing this system as well. 0z Euro had the widespread precip but a more confined snow area, 6z Euro was shaping to look pretty decent but ran out of hours. Euro GPT doesn’t have it at all and those ensembles are weakly hinting at the system. Key will be a balance of amping this system up enough and placing/strength of the high to the north to set up cold and a more widespread snow swath. The feature itself looks progressive (no closed 500mb low or neg tilted trough) but low originates in the Gulf, so moisture source is there.

Think there’s still a bit of work to be done for setting us up for the first widespread winter event of the early season. Cold shot Thanksgiving into the weekend has looked more transient with troughing dumping into the western US to set up the first half of the week following Thanksgiving. Allows for heights to more quickly rebuild in the eastern US with moderating temps by the time Sun/Mon roll around. Think any system in that timeframe of the first half of the week opening up December probably cuts. Teleconnection situation on models/ensembles shows developing -WPO/-EPO, good for sending cold air down thru Canada into the US. Countering is a generally +NAO and eventually -PNA, which will allow for SE ridging to try to edge up in the eastern US, at least initially. The -EPO/-WPO regime looks to have some staying power, so I think as long as we maintain that we can eventually work more consistent cold eastward and press the storm boundary down. Just looks like this is initially going to start in the west. Obviously still a pretty long lead time right now. Overall I’m pretty optimistic for things in December right now. At any rate, the Thanksgiving cold shot is still fairly potent. Perhaps not anything historic by any means, but definitely cold with temp departures of -8 to -10ºF looking like a pretty good bet area-wide Thanksgiving thru about Saturday or so. LES potential in PA doesn’t look as significant as the previous couple bouts of it we’ve had the last couple weeks that reached deeper into C-PA. Flow in the wake of the system that ushers the cold looks generally more WNW, which would keep more persistent LES more bottled up in the favored NW PA snow belt with focus being there and in western NY below Buffalo. Could be more of an opportunity of the usual snow showers reaching further into PA on Black Friday as the flow veers more NW briefly before heights start to build and shut off the flow.

I was up in State College early this morning, and it was a general 1-2” or so up there. A legitimate plowable snowfall in some parts of town and the surrounding area up there. Good thing this didn’t occur a few hours later than it did, as P-Dot was able to get on it before the morning rush. Pine Grove Mills a few miles from State College

I just woke up right as this was ending here and have a half inch on the ground and slushy roads. Def a bit of a surprise as it was only supposed to be maybe a rain/snow mix here at best. Can see snow or snowing on the 511 cams down to at least Mifflintown. At any rate on the board with the first measurable of the new season here.

I figure this is a good time to post for the first time in a good while. I’ve been very busy all summer and fall, but I’ll be getting back to posting regularly again now that we’re heading into the winter. At any rate first flakes of the season arrived here today. Nothing on the ground though here at the house, at least so far. Very potent snowband has been working the I-80 corridor from about Dubois to Clearfield and now stretching into Centre County and the Bellefonte/State College area. Of particular note is the stretch of I-80 from Dubois (Exit 97) to about the Penfield exit (Exit 111). Looks to be traffic issues there, especially east bound. This band is Huron connected as well, which is enhancing it further. I’ll bet some spots end up with up to 3”, perhaps even a bit more where the heaviest part of the band has trained the most.

Stayed in it and finished the full mow of my house and the neighbors with this bearing down. Worst of this missed here to the west as this is riding up through Cambria and Clearfield with yet another tornado warning in Clearfield. Likely to cause more issues there I’m sure for the many folks in and around there that still don’t have power from Tuesday.

There hasn’t been much major severe to write home about in this part of Central PA for what seems like the last several years but this year has definitely been off to a wild start. Prior to yesterday there was a widespread severe event on 3/16 that really impacted some of the same areas with a few NWS confirmed tornadoes and lots of straight line wind damage in the I-80 corridor as well as the 99 corridor too. That one really hit Bellefonte and surrounding hard. Last nights line really hit a bit further south.. getting Cambria/Blair/southern Centre/Huntingdon coming in from western PA where it had its largest impacts in and around Pittsburgh. Carrolltown in Cambria County had the most notable damage report, with a cell phone tower being destroyed by the winds. Something you don’t see often outside hurricanes or maybe direct hits from tornadoes. The NWS reportedly surveyed this today and reported that to be straight line wind damage of 110-120mph winds. https://www.wtaj.com/weather/nws-survey-confirms-straight-line-wind-damage-in-cambria-county/ There was other widespread issues around here and tens of thousands of folks without power. I was out here for a couple hours and my parents up the road didn’t get theirs back until earlier today. No damage here at home fortunately.

I-80 closed this morning between Kylertown (132) and Snow Shoe (147) from the snow squalls earlier this morning. Reportedly a 30+ pileup.

Pretty active pattern setting up this week in terms of multiple opportunities for rainfall, so hopefully can start chipping away at the established drought conditions in the SE part of the state. Despite that, the focus of the heaviest QPF is squared in the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valley. Significant flooding appears a pretty good possibility there. Those are some pretty prolific QPF numbers in the bullseye, even over a 7 day period.

If I’m being honest the politics getting into the discussion was about the only thing in here that really made me feel any kind of way as far as getting heated. Not because it was brought up or necessarily from the differences in opinion but simply because the topic was beyond having a reasonable discussion, which obviously is a thing that goes way beyond the small confines of our subforum. I’ll refrain from rehashing further on that. Otherwise I feel the “discourse” in here is fairly tame compared to some of the stuff that occasionally flares up in the bigger subforums IMO. It’s obviously anyone’s choice whether they want or need to step aside and take a break and such, but I certainly don’t feel it’s necessary for anyone in here to do so from anything that’s been said recently. Hope everything works out for you.

KUNV had a peak gust of 64 mph, KJST 63mph.

Power has now gone out after the fact. At least a couple trees came down in the woods around my parents house up the road in Bellwood.

The wind part was quick but it was legit. Power flashed off at the height of the winds so unsure of the gusts, but definitely was easily of the severe variety. Had some pea sized hail as well.

Looking at mesoanalysis, dynamics are definitely the big factor in the severe threat from this line. Effective helicity is pretty notable in a narrow corridor of west central PA just ahead of the line. Same goes for effective bulk shear as well. Limiting factor is CAPE, which is only of the few hundred J/kg variety in western PA. Thus, QLCS spinups are quite possible directly associated with the line given significant helicity/shear. Eastern PA still pretty stable, so we shall see how the atmosphere evolves as the line traverses PA. We’re def in the warm sector here. Quite warm/humid considering the date (66/58ºF on the station here). Winds are really ripping. KAOO wind is SSE 33mph gust to 45 with a high gust of 55mph.

Multiple tornado warnings with the portion of the line in western PA roughly from Ligonier to Indiana

If you use mobile you might not see it but there’s a sidebar that shows stuff like most popular posts and days as well as the top 4 posters in the topic. Bubbler and ITT are #1 and #3. Blizz and mitchnick are the other two. Mitch has been posting in the Mid-Atl threads and there hasn’t been much snow digital or otherwise for blizz to share. Definitely a dynamic changer for sure. Those 4 combined account for like 44% of the posts in this thread haha. Also, despite the general winter is dead theme today..it’s probably not going to be dead for you tonight. I expect at least some of that precipitation in northern Ohio and western PA to make it over as far as you and it’ll likely be mostly snow. Nothing serious but could be a quick coating. Not much is progged to make it past the I-99 corridor in the rest of C-PA otherwise.

0.61” here with this morning’s round of rain. Best dynamics in terms of shear/helicity/high winds aloft reside with the main area of heavy rain (with imbedded line) traversing Eastern PA currently. I think severe potential is there but limited with secondary development of storms late this afternoon in the dry slot. Western PA has built up surface CAPE of several hundred J/kg back in the dry slot per mesoanalysis and some decent LI and low level lapse rates which has led to some storm development. I think the main threat is mainly sub severe gusty winds/hail with the potential for some more organized storms strong enough to warrant a few warnings as winds aloft aren’t quite as strong there. Tornado threat not zero but very unlikely IMO. Best helicity as mentioned is associated with the main stuff moving through eastern PA. Modeled CAPE on high res guidance going into this evening is best in western PA decreasing to not very much once to the Sus Valley. Thus I think main threat is a round or two of gusty showers/storms with maybe a warned storm or two.

Made it up to 60ºF here.

Well, the 18z GFS just did it again.

The only period I’m semi-interested in for anything wintry for the time being is that wave being progged in about the 3/7-8 timeframe, which comes on the heels of what likely will be a fairly potent GL cutter that will hopefully deliver some kind of decent rainfall in the eastern half of the state. Not expecting a phasing scenario so will have to see how the wave tracks across. 18z GFS tracking similar to the 12z Euro with the GFS a bit colder. One issue I’m already seeing progged is low level and surface temps could be an issue in the lower elevations like the Sus Valley if the wave delivers any kind of respectable precip to C-PA. After that we look to moderate significantly going into mid-month as despite the NAO forecast to go negative we counter with a pretty positive EPO and negative PNA. Major strat warming over the pole and a displacement/stretching of the stratospheric PV could eventually have implications down the road for late month, but of course you need more to go right storm wise and bigger - temp anomalies with respect to normal to remain in the snow game when you get to that late in the season. Climo wise CTP mentioned in their AFD today that MDT finished met winter (DJF) at 31.1ºF for average temp, which was 2.2ºF below normal. Good for the coldest winter since 2014-2015. Too bad that came with only 15.6” of snowfall, which is about 66% of average to date. Worse yet in the snow dept is Philly, only at 8.1” (42% of normal). Places like the deep Louisiana bayou country, New Orleans, Pensacola, etc have technically had snowier winters with that historic storm they got. Also underscores how dry that part of the state has been this winter as well as Philly is at 2.98” total precip YTD out of an average 5.99”. Driest was 1992 with 2.19”.

I do believe he was referenced at the tail end of the CNN article about the terminations. They do. I give my opinions in here too, mostly on the weather. I don’t find it necessarily off topic or “non weather related” to discuss the impact of terminating hundreds of very intelligent people in an agency that maintains/improves/provides weather forecasts and life saving warnings to all US and maritime interests, free and open access to computer modelling, analysis and data that all private weather entities (including free model sites) and weather enthusiasts like yourself use. All for an annual cost to the taxpayer that amounts to less than two months subscription to DT’s newsletter. But that’s just my opinion I suppose.

That Route 153?